Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

stefan92 said:
Is it really? That surprises me to be honest. I'm no expert but my understanding was that the slow flying drones are relatively easy to intercept while cruise missiles should be harder. I see that confirmed by the usual stats frm russian attacks, where Ukraine usually claims to intercept a higher percentage of Shahed drones compared to true cruise missiles.

Subsonic vs supersonic is a different discussion, I don't doubt your statement about that. But if those tests resulted in "subsonic is best" than a new weapon in that performance range should be an improvement, shouldn't it?
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The issue in long range strikes is detectability, which is the first part of the interception calculus.

Let me rephrase actually, if all other factors are equal, speed is relevant. But, as with most cases, other factors are not equal.

There are so many factors in why Kalibr's and Shahed's interception rates are different, ranging from what platforms are used, how they're deployed, etc.

If Russian missile doctrine is anything like the West's, the Shahed's would be used to deplete battery depth and then the Kalibr's synch in a few minutes later when batteries are drained.

It depends on what the new missile RCS, speeds, mobility is amongst tens of other factors.

Long range drones are more agile, simply because turning at 200kmph vs 800kmph is simpler. It's easier for Long range drones to avoid enemy radar.

All in all, the new missile may indeed be a big improvement on Long Range direct fires for AFU, but Speed is not the prevailing factor here.
 
AfonsoAlves said:
The issue in long range strikes is detectability, which is the first part of the interception calculus.

Let me rephrase actually, if all other factors are equal, speed is relevant. But, as with most cases, other factors are not equal.

There are so many factors in why Kalibr's and Shahed's interception rates are different, ranging from what platforms are used, how they're deployed, etc.

If Russian missile doctrine is anything like the West's, the Shahed's would be used to deplete battery depth and then the Kalibr's synch in a few minutes later when batteries are drained.

It depends on what the new missile RCS, speeds, mobility is amongst tens of other factors.

Long range drones are more agile, simply because turning at 200kmph vs 800kmph is simpler. It's easier for Long range drones to avoid enemy radar.

All in all, the new missile may indeed be a big improvement on Long Range direct fires for AFU, but Speed is not the prevailing factor here.
Click to expand...
Ok this makes sense to me, thank you for explaining!

If I understand correctly Neptune flies very low which means it should be able to avoid radar pretty good as well, combined with high speed it should decrease the warning time for its targets, so for that aspect speed should be a benefit.

Either way it's a success for them and in times when Ukraine can't be sure that ATACMS etc will continue to work this is much needed for them.
 
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