Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

buchansleftleg said:
Could this be a "diversionary" attack - aimed at getting the Russians to move their SAM infrastructure to compensate for the attack. If the Russians move this in a panicked/ haphazard way it will be more vulnerable to Air attack as it won't have it's own overlapping coverage. I'm thinking the timing is significant with Ukraine getting it's first F16's. - so could be preparation for a sweeping air to ground attacks to wither Russian air / SAM resources.

Or is this too significant a scale attack to be for this?
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The more I see, the more looks like Ukraine is there to stay. It’s certainly going to divert Russia one way or another though.

How Russia react is going to tell us a lot about “wtf can Russia even do?” I’ve seen some commentators suggest Russia has enough reserves and equipment held back to deal with it along with their air force…. I’ll hold back my laughter for now, just in case, but I fecking doubt it.

First group of reinforcements has been smashed, progress of next convoy is being broadcast across the net… Saw a Russian TG post stating they are attempting to gather a ragtag group of 2k troops together from whatever military personnel is nearby, to retake Sudzha. If stuff like that is true, they are dead on arrival. This is clearly a well planned, prepared and provisioned op from Ukraine.

Having difficulty not replicating Zelenksky’s facial expression right now.

 
Not looking forward to Putlers retaliation on the Ukrainian civilian population. No idea where it all goes from here.
 
nimic said:
As long as the situation is that Russia occupies Ukrainian territory, the only peace they will discuss is one where they annex large swathes of it. Clearly Russia has built much more expensive defenses in Ukraine than in their own territory. Maybe this could be a bargaining chip.

Seems awfully hard for them to keep it, but it should at least lead to Russian redeployment of troops. And at the very least it's embarrassing, as you say.
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I imagine there's also a dimension of disrupting supply lines and rear bases.
As you say as long as Russian troop occupy Ukrainian territory they have a strong position at the negotiation table. With the front situation being frozen over, Ukraine has to find other avenues to sap Russian political will, force them to redeploy or have their own cards to play.
 
All fun and games until Putin drops a nuke somewhere, I'm sure his Russian doctrine certainly would include attacks on Russian soil and a threat to their "democracy" or whatever they package it as
 
Damn you Ukrainians, why are you defending the way you think its the best for you instead the way Russians want you to.
 
Precaution said:
All fun and games until Putin drops a nuke somewhere, I'm sure his Russian doctrine certainly would include attacks on Russian soil and a threat to their "democracy" or whatever they package it as
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Unless the survival of Russia is plausibly on the line, no nukes will be dropped. The consequences would be, at the very least, the full entry of the West in Ukraine. At worst nuclear war.
 
Precaution said:
All fun and games until Putin drops a nuke somewhere, I'm sure his Russian doctrine certainly would include attacks on Russian soil and a threat to their "democracy" or whatever they package it as
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Not a chance he does that. It is, however, what he wants people in the West to believe.
 
Ukrainian drones strike Russian airfield as Kyiv pursues incursion
The Ukrainian official claimed that up to 700 glide bombs stored in the warehouses were damaged or destroyed. Several dozen fighter jets, including Su-34, Su-35 and MiG-31 aircraft, along with military helicopters, were also at the air base, said the general staff of Ukraine’s army. “Most of the planes stationed at the military airfield . . . did not have time to take off,” the Ukrainian official claimed.

The FT could not immediately verify whether the bombs and aircraft had been damaged or destroyed. Russian military bloggers reported that no aircraft were damaged.
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I mean, strategically, if you have been in a year long attritional stalemate along heavily defender frontlines, surely it makes sense to attack poorly defended areas and keep the enemy guessing. I dont imagine Ukraine beleives they will hold it but cause the maximum amount of damage possible.
 
Lots of hardware being sent to Kursk apparently. Hopefully the Ukrainians can pick some of it off while in transit.

 
VorZakone said:
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2 and half years into the war and they have learned nothing about how to drive in a column.
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the hea said:
2 and half years into the war and they have learned nothing about how to drive in a column.
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Well, I think the Ukrainians sometimes make the mistake too. The counter-offensive in the summer of 2023 had clips of Ukrainian columns being knocked out.
 
VorZakone said:
Well, I think the Ukrainians sometimes make the mistake too. The counter-offensive in the summer of 2023 had clips of Ukrainian columns being knocked out.
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Tanks and IFVs being close together while taking part in an armored push on enemy positions is understandable but vehicles in a transport column behind the lines should never be this close together. Especially if the column has to stop which seems to be the case here, had the vehicles been spread out the losses would have been limited to 1 or 2 trucks.
During training in the artillery this was one of the most important things when we where on the move. Always assume someone is watching you from above and can call in a strike on you.
 
I assume part of the motivation re: Sudzha is to gain control of the gas transit station that can be a bargaining chip/hostage.
 
Unsurprisingly, this is being compared to the Wagner mutiny. One thing that is still astonishing about what Prigozhin did is how effortless it was and that Putin was forced to seek refuge in St. Pete.

 
golden_blunder said:
Will they strike at the heart of the beast? Moscow?
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No, of course not.

They should take certain liberties though, blow up the gas pipeline to Europe by "accident" shouldn't be out of the question, though i guess they wont.
 
Sir Matt said:
I assume part of the motivation re: Sudzha is to gain control of the gas transit station that can be a bargaining chip/hostage.
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That pipeline runs through Ukraine just a few kilometers further down the line, what would be the point of controlling that station when they could already cut off that pipeline at will?
 
Exclusive: Iran to deliver hundreds of ballistic missiles to Russia soon, intel sources say
Aug 9 (Reuters) - Dozens of Russian military personnel are being trained in Iran to use the Fath-360 close-range ballistic missile system, two European intelligence sources told Reuters, adding that they expected the imminent delivery of hundreds of the satellite-guided weapons to Russia for its war in Ukraine.
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https://www.reuters.com/business/ae...les-russia-soon-intel-sources-say-2024-08-09/
 
nimic said:
Doesn't all that gas transit through Ukraine anyway? If they wanted to stop it completely, they could do it immediately.
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Sure, but if the Russians bomb or damage it (or the Ukrainians sabotage it) while trying to push them out of Sudzha, the Ukrainians get the benefit of hitting Russia's exports while not blowing it up themselves. I doubt that's why they invaded, but it may make it more difficult for Russia to expel them if they can establish a foothold around the town.
 
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Ukraine seem to be trying to consolidate for a bit, fill in the gaps rather than a beeline for the NPP or whatever. Russian claims of some successful counter-attacks on the road toward Sudzha overnight, nothing to back it up of course. There's been a small incursion into Belogrod region taking a border village, that does look like its just to get Russia's attention and keep them guessing, rather than another committed push. Rumours of another ka-52 being downed overnight.

No real signs yet of what Russia plans to do about this, no mythical reserve force has appeared from the motherland yet. Belarus is making a bit of noise, declaring an "anti-terrorist" alert or something along the border and they are claiming Ukraine violated their airspace yesterday. Russia of course needs Ukraine to keep thinking Belarus is some threat, to occupy some allocation of forces.
 
the hea said:
Seems like they are still pushing forward.


Reports from Kursk City about a massive missile barage just outside the city.
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Lots of claims about this and also seen both sides refute it. Would be odd if they've penetrated that deep without any other reports in that direction. Maybe an advanced SOF unit, maybe just part of the attempts to spread confusion and panic.


Also, its very noisy in Kursk City right now.
 
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