Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

AfonsoAlves said:
AIM-9X, AIM-120 AMRAAM, a drop tank and a weird pod that isn't anything I've actually seen before or studied before. Whatever the hell that is, it's definitely not typical loadout, it looks way to small to be an ALQ-184 jammer pod.

Anyway, this loadout screams missile/deep penetration interceptor missions.
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The pod should be a Terma missile warning system, both the Danes and the Dutch used these on their F-16s if I remember correctly.
https://www.terma.com/media/4x4cnokw/pylon-based-ew-solutions-letter-feb2022.pdf

I'm pretty sure the US are in the process of buying a similar system from Elbit systems.

Edit: https://www.elbitamerica.com/news/e...ircraft-with-enhanced-missile-warning-systems
 
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Russian pilot filming his jet fall through the clouds far below him :O
No confirmation when this is from

 
VorZakone said:
Looks like it was a really big boom.

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Absolutely hilarious how Russia has not learnt how to store munitions correctly yet.

All NATO weapons/ammo depots have failsafe built in mechanisms to limit accidental detonations.
 
Reportedly some kind of incursion into Kursk Oblast, Russia today. On the border near Sumy, north of Kharkiv & Belogrod.

Info is proper sketchy but lots of things appear to be burning, ongoing thread here.
 
Something is happening in Ukraine right now.

My friend in AFU intelligence isn’t receiving WhatsApp messages (one tick). This means enforced blackout of news.
 
AfonsoAlves said:
Something is happening in Ukraine right now.

My friend in AFU intelligence isn’t receiving WhatsApp messages (one tick). This means enforced blackout of news.
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Seen a few random tweets along these lines with people suggesting stuff like "big news to come, Kursk is the beginning" and "this week will change the war" supposedly from some azov source.

They are going to liberate Ukraine with 6 F-16's aren't they?
 
Possibly connected with this?

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/26/us/politics/austin-russia-ukraine-defense-plot.html

"Now on July 12, Mr. Belousov was calling to relay a warning, according to two U.S. officials and another official briefed on the call: The Russians had detected a Ukrainian covert operation in the works against Russia that they believed had the Americans’ blessing. Was the Pentagon aware of the plot, Mr. Belousov asked Mr. Austin, and its potential to ratchet up tensions between Moscow and Washington?

Pentagon officials were surprised by the allegation and unaware of any such plot, the two U.S. officials said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the confidential phone call. But whatever Mr. Belousov revealed, all three officials said, it was taken seriously enough that the Americans contacted the Ukrainians and said, essentially, if you’re thinking about doing something like this, don’t".
 
Russian military bloggers are claiming Ukraine have launched a tactical nuclear missile at Kursk :lol:

What’s most likely happened is an ammo dump went up and formed a mushroom cloud
 
VorZakone said:
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Pretty obvious they'd want peace. Hopefully they can come to a compromise, but what's a peace deal with Putler worth? He doesn't adhere to them and will simply liberate Russian speakers somewhere else in 5 years, where lots of natural resources of course.
 
@AfonsoAlves Do you have any idea on the losses on both sides? I obviously don't trust the russian numbers and certainly not the ukrainian or western ones.
 
AfonsoAlves said:
By losses do you mean deaths or broad casualties? KIA + MIA + WIA + POW?
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Yeah, pretty much.

If by chance you also got an estimate of the equipment losses, that would be great. I'm completely in the dark on both of these matters.

Thanks.
 
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That_Bloke said:
Yeah, pretty much.

If by chance you also got an estimate of the equipment losses, that would be great. I'm completely in the dark on both of these matters.

Thanks.
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These ought to be all confirmed losses.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html

Russia - 17267, of which: destroyed: 12587, damaged: 760, abandoned: 989, captured: 2931
Ukraine - 6227, of which: destroyed: 4407, damaged: 519, abandoned: 266, captured: 1035
 
That_Bloke said:
Yeah, pretty much.

If by chance you also got an estimate of the equipment losses, that would be great. I'm completely in the dark on this matter.

Thanks.
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So the answer by exactness is truly unknown, and I don't think the AFU themselves fully know the answer. Full accurate casualty breakdowns will need to be done for years after the war has ended to get an exact answer.

But the last time I asked around this topic was in June, right after when things were truly looking a little bleak -

320,000 total combat casualties was the estimation I received. It came from a reliable source, and I think I can share this given I'm in no way affiliated with AFU in any capacity anymore and I no longer work directly for the military anymore and this information came to me organically.

I asked for a breakdown but did not receive one.

However this doesn't include non-combat casualties. Desertions, "ghost soldiers", MIA who didn't die or get captured but no discernible reason as to why they no longer serve. This is apparently becoming a big non-insignificant problem.

As for equipment - the funny thing here is AFU now have more non-western equipment than they started the war with. Exact numbers are a very closed secret, but there was so much abandoned Russia equipment that got made to good use in the early phase of the war that even to this day mechanics are in overdrive bringing them back into service.

Propaganda regarding both human and equipment losses in the AFU is very rife and accurate numbers are incredibly difficult to source.

I would even take the 320k with a pinch of salt because the person who told me would probably get into trouble if they told me the real value.
 
AfonsoAlves said:
So the answer by exactness is truly unknown, and I don't think the AFU themselves fully know the answer. Full accurate casualty breakdowns will need to be done for years after the war has ended to get an exact answer.

But the last time I asked around this topic was in June, right after when things were truly looking a little bleak -

320,000 total combat casualties was the estimation I received. It came from a reliable source, and I think I can share this given I'm in no way affiliated with AFU in any capacity anymore and I no longer work directly for the military anymore and this information came to me organically.

I asked for a breakdown but did not receive one.

However this doesn't include non-combat casualties. Desertions, "ghost soldiers", MIA who didn't die or get captured but no discernible reason as to why they no longer serve. This is apparently becoming a big non-insignificant problem.

As for equipment - the funny thing here is AFU now have more non-western equipment than they started the war with. Exact numbers are a very closed secret, but there was so much abandoned Russia equipment that got made to good use in the early phase of the war that even to this day mechanics are in overdrive bringing them back into service.

Propaganda regarding both human and equipment losses in the AFU is very rife and accurate numbers are incredibly difficult to source.

I would even take the 320k with a pinch of salt because the person who told me would probably get into trouble if they told me the real value.
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Yeah, I'm aware of that. I just wanted a rough, reliable estimation just to know where we're at.

From what I've gathered, the total losses on both sides including WIA are in the hundreds of thousands, but the numbers vary so wildly from one source to another that I simply can't make any real educated guess.

320,000 each for both sides? Or just the AFU?

That also brings me to my next question: Is the shortage in manpower a real problem in the AFU which could have lasting repercussions in say, the next 1-2 years, or can it be alleviated?

That's good to hear.

Nothing new, each side has every reason to keep their losses secret. I speak neither Russian nor Ukrainian and I'm very unfamiliar with the local maps. I generally look for big movements on the front and nevralgic points changing hands to have a vague idea of what's happening.

Thanks a bunch as always.
 
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AfonsoAlves said:
So the answer by exactness is truly unknown, and I don't think the AFU themselves fully know the answer. Full accurate casualty breakdowns will need to be done for years after the war has ended to get an exact answer.

But the last time I asked around this topic was in June, right after when things were truly looking a little bleak -

320,000 total combat casualties was the estimation I received. It came from a reliable source, and I think I can share this given I'm in no way affiliated with AFU in any capacity anymore and I no longer work directly for the military anymore and this information came to me organically.

I asked for a breakdown but did not receive one.

However this doesn't include non-combat casualties. Desertions, "ghost soldiers", MIA who didn't die or get captured but no discernible reason as to why they no longer serve. This is apparently becoming a big non-insignificant problem.

As for equipment - the funny thing here is AFU now have more non-western equipment than they started the war with. Exact numbers are a very closed secret, but there was so much abandoned Russia equipment that got made to good use in the early phase of the war that even to this day mechanics are in overdrive bringing them back into service.

Propaganda regarding both human and equipment losses in the AFU is very rife and accurate numbers are incredibly difficult to source.

I would even take the 320k with a pinch of salt because the person who told me would probably get into trouble if they told me the real value.
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Only Ukraine's or total (Ukraine's and Russia's)? Also, by 320K casualties do you mean 320K soldiers who were killed, or it also includes the wounded (I assume a 3:1 ratio)?
 

Russian influence in eastern Europe is aggravating HIV epidemic, say experts​

Propaganda is deterring people from accessing healthcare as Aids-related deaths rise 34% since 2010

https://www.theguardian.com/global-...stern-europe-is-aggravating-hiv-epidemic-aids

Growing Russian influence in eastern Europe is driving a worsening HIV epidemic, health leaders have warned.

In eastern Europe and central Asia, new diagnoses of HIV have risen 20% since 2010, while Aids-related deaths have gone up 34% – the fastest rates of growth globally.


Most new infections in the region are among “key populations”, including people who inject drugs, sex workers and gay men, and their sexual partners.

Efforts to improve treatment and prevent infections are being hampered by Russian-linked propaganda against targets including opioid replacement therapy services, which reduce the risk of HIV infection among people using drugs, and the LGBTQ+ community.
 
That_Bloke said:
Yeah, I'm aware of that. I just wanted a rough, reliable estimation just to know where we're at.

From what I've gathered the total losses on both sides including WIA are in the hundreds of thousands, but the numbers vary so wildly from one source to another that I simply can't make any real educated guess.

320,000 each for both sides? Or just the AFU?

That also brings me to my next question: Is the shortage in manpower a real problem in the AFU which could have lasting repercussions in say, the next 1-2 years, or can it be alleviated?

That's good to hear.

Nothing new, each side has every reason to keep their losses secret. I speak neither Russian nor Ukrainian and I'm very unfamiliar with the local maps. I generally look for big movements on the front and nevralgic points changing hands to have a vague idea of what's happening.

Thanks a bunch as always.
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AFU = 320k

Russia no fecking idea. But it's more.

Lasting repurcussions will occur, but it won't be felt until a few more years down the line. We're looking at France post WWI levels of manpower drain.
Revan said:
Only Ukraine's or total (Ukraine's and Russia's)? Also, by 320K casualties do you mean 320K soldiers who were killed, or it also includes the wounded (I assume a 3:1 ratio)?
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320k AFU. Not killed, these are total casualties.

3:1 is not accurate for this war.
 
AfonsoAlves said:
AFU = 320k

Russia no fecking idea. But it's more.

Lasting repurcussions will occur, but it won't be felt until a few more years down the line. We're looking at France post WWI levels of manpower drain.
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Gotcha.

That's what I desperately wanted to know. Thanks.
 


Surely an incursion (of bigger scale than previous ones), with specific goal and a retreat within 2-3 days. I'd wager they are trying to sever logistical routes and shift russian forces, that's about it.

Some on twitter wondering if they could go for Kursk NPP, but think that's unrealistic, as they won't be able to hold anything once russians shift forces towards this direction.
Also wouldn't put it past Putin to make an accident at the plant and blame it on Ukraine, to be able to justify scratching his nuclear itch. Hope they steer clear.
 
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Jesus christ, in the space of 36 hours.

2.5 brigade strength attack too, which is pretty remarkable. Although the low troop density is worrying me as this means that if Russia sorts their shit out and brings reinforcements to the front, they could isolate pockets of Ukrainian brigades.
 
I think its time Zelensky recognizes the interests of ethnic Ukrainians in Kursk and call for a referendum about whether the population want to become part of Ukraine. #KurskPeoplesRepublic
 
ShoePolish said:


Surely an incursion (of bigger scale than previous ones), with specific goal and a retreat within 2-3 days. I'd wager they are trying to sever logistical routes and shift russian forces, that's about it.

Some on twitter wondering if they could go for Kursk NPP, but think that's unrealistic, as they won't be able to hold anything once russians shift forces towards this direction.
Also wouldn't put it past Putin to make an accident at the plant and blame it on Ukraine, to be able to justify scratching his nuclear itch. Hope they steer clear.
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I'd suggest that it is mostly a relief attack. A successful incursion into Russian territory is probably the best way to force them to reallocate forces to secure their home fronts, which in turn reduces their ability to push or defend on other fronts. I'd think Ukraine is especially interested in taking some steam off of the Donbas frontlines, where Russia seemed to exert increasing amounts of pressure recently.
Putin might not actually give a crap about the people living there, and strategically those towns mean nothing even if Ukraine manages to cut off the train line running east of Sudzha, but he can't be seen as weak or incompetent, so he will be forced to react to the attack, and strongly. These few hundred Ukrainian soldiers might well achieve a reallocation of several thousand Russian troops, especially if they think that more areas might be vulnerable like this.
 
G3079 said:
I'd suggest that it is mostly a relief attack. A successful incursion into Russian territory is probably the best way to force them to reallocate forces to secure their home fronts, which in turn reduces their ability to push or defend on other fronts. I'd think Ukraine is especially interested in taking some steam off of the Donbas frontlines, where Russia seemed to exert increasing amounts of pressure recently.
Putin might not actually give a crap about the people living there, and strategically those towns mean nothing even if Ukraine manages to cut off the train line running east of Sudzha, but he can't be seen as weak or incompetent, so he will be forced to react to the attack, and strongly. These few hundred Ukrainian soldiers might well achieve a reallocation of several thousand Russian troops, especially if they think that more areas might be vulnerable like this.
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But if Ukraine attacks there, it loses effects in other areas in Ukraine, and is not that they are precisely winning lately. The least that Ukraine needs is stretch the front line even longer as they have less soldiers. I can see it as a scare tactic that they can hit Russia home but is more symbolic than a good tactic IMO
 
4bars said:
But if Ukraine attacks there, it loses effects in other areas in Ukraine, and is not that they are precisely winning lately. The least that Ukraine needs is stretch the front line even longer as they have less soldiers. I can see it as a scare tactic that they can hit Russia home but is more symbolic than a good tactic IMO
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I do not believe that the AFU actually plans to hold onto those areas once Russia makes a serious push to gain them back. They must be well-aware that there are neither the supply lines nor the defensive positions available to make that viable. Hence why I call it a relief or diversion attack, aimed at redirecting Russian forces rather than strategical gains.

If they actually manage to redirect forces from or at least intended for Donbas they also have the advantage of having the inner lines. Ukraine can redeploy their units much faster back to Donbas than Russia can. Especially since Russia appears to have been caught entirely offguard here and is unlikely to be prepared to respond quickly to the attack, eitehr by capitalizing on the absence of those units elsewhere, or to answer in the area in force.

I have not really looked into which units exactly have led the assault, but I would also think that those are not units that would be especially suited for defensive tasks. And if a few days of several hundred soldiers invested there can lead to a longterm stationing of thousands of Russian soldiers on those borders, just in case they try something like that again, then that will almost certainly have well been worth it.
 
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