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Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
Situation in Kursk region seems dynamic. Lots of things going on from Russian strikes on Ukrainian vehicle convoys to dozens of Russians surrendering to Ukraine. Aftermath will be interesting...
Also lots of skepticism as to what Ukraine's goals are here because they'll likely suffer losses both in manpower and vehicles.
Also lots of skepticism as to what Ukraine's goals are here because they'll likely suffer losses both in manpower and vehicles.
This Russian propagandist was hit by a drone and hospitalized: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evgeniy_Poddubny
That's a shame.
Couldn't they blow up the gas pipelines in the area, and hit Russia's wallet?
Upsi hupsi.
Russian channels are in complete panic, nobody knows what's going on, there's phantom attacks everyone, Ukrainian forces spotted in random places, paranoia about whether this is the main push or whether there's another one. It's absolute pandemonium; everyone is blaming each other.
Then there was the Russian security council meeting where Gerasimov said with a straight face to Putin that all Ukrainian forces have been repelled; Putin's face was like "Shut the feck up"
This is glorious
Then there was the Russian security council meeting where Gerasimov said with a straight face to Putin that all Ukrainian forces have been repelled; Putin's face was like "Shut the feck up"
This is glorious
Unless they manage to advance on Kursk itself there are no major pipelines in the region that don't run through Ukraine in the first place.
Thank you.
Do you think it was worth the risks, or do we need to wait a little longer before we can say?Russian channels are in complete panic, nobody knows what's going on, there's phantom attacks everyone, Ukrainian forces spotted in random places, paranoia about whether this is the main push or whether there's another one. It's absolute pandemonium; everyone is blaming each other.
Then there was the Russian security council meeting where Gerasimov said with a straight face to Putin that all Ukrainian forces have been repelled; Putin's face was like "Shut the feck up"
This is glorious
So what's in the area that's of such high value to Ukraine? Obviously Putler and co will make out they attacked civilian targets, which makes no sense, but it's how they'll spin it.
Anyone like to hazard a guess as to Ukraine’s plan in this recent attack?
I’ve seen various theories, including:
-Forcing Russia to divert men away from the front lines in eastern Ukraine, where they’ve been making solid, if unspectacular, progress.
-Cutting a key Russia supply route on the road between Kursk and Belgorod.
-Gaining control over the gas supply station near Kursk.
Or is it something else, that I’m missing?
I’ve seen various theories, including:
-Forcing Russia to divert men away from the front lines in eastern Ukraine, where they’ve been making solid, if unspectacular, progress.
-Cutting a key Russia supply route on the road between Kursk and Belgorod.
-Gaining control over the gas supply station near Kursk.
Or is it something else, that I’m missing?
I’ve heard various things about gas supply, but I think that the pipelines from there go on to the rest of Europe *through* Ukraine anyway.
If it’s about relieving pressure on the front lines, then maybe there is nothing specific of value there.
Edit- I wonder if Ukraine got wind of an imminent Russian move on Kharkiv. And the Ukes concluded that putting a few hundred men into Russian territory would result in many thousands of Russian soldiers being permanently relocated to that area.
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They will be putting a lot of effort into ensuring Russia doesn't have a fookin clue what their plans are. So no chance we will.
We'll have to wait and see. Could just be an exploratory raid (with 4 spare brigades) just because they could, and they'll adapt depending on how Russia reacts.
It's fun to speculate though, so I'll have a punt. Why not reinforce the Donbass where they are 'struggling' if they have such spare capacity? Well if Russia is willing to sacrifice thousands of troops for every km² there, its probably a good idea not to discourage them, keep feeding them those km² tbh. Go elsewhere, and an invasion of Russia itself may just have been the path of least resistance. Hope Russia thinks its a minor/temporary incursion at first, but after 3 days it looks in every way to be a full on commitment and reports are suggesting Ukraine continues to move further forces across the border.
Where it leads, well just threatening the city of Kursk could cause some serious panic among the Russian leadership and people. Actively trying to take it is highly unlikely, but the threat, making Russia think its on the cards, is well within reach. That would be a very different scenario compared to capturing some border villages. Its sounding like they are 50km away already, with probably not much in the way. I don't know what reserve forces Russia has nearby within its borders, but these are battle hardened brigades charging at them, only encouraged by mass surrenders they've seen so far.
West of Kursk City is Kurskaya NPP, 30km from the latest reported location of Ukrainian forces. Could be that they see this as a valuable bargaining chip if they can capture it and the aim is to cut out and hold some Russian territory. I don't know how that would work honestly and would make me worry more than anything. If they do want to hold territory and can stay on the offensive, push south along the border maybe toward Belogrod, they may not have to worry too much about fortifying.
Much will depend on what Russia does, but it all feels pretty encouraging to me.
Fractured reports coming in of Ukrainian attack on the Belgorod frontline...
Take with a pinch of salt so far.
Take with a pinch of salt so far.
What the Wagner March showed is that Russians had zero considerations for reinforcing the rear. It was considered unthinkable that any sort of counterinvasion happened so they were extremely unprepared.
Nothing has changed a year later
Great post in general. Re the part above, I have little doubt that this is a factor in the West’s thinking. Russia is irrevocably weakening itself, to the extent that it will surely be a very long time until they can risk a war on this scale again. Certainly not within Putin’s lifetime.
I’m less sure that Ukraine thinks like this. Their front lines are undermanned and overstretched, and they desperately need reinforcements. They can’t afford to take the medium/ long term view that the West can. That said, your speculation is as good as any; I certainly don’t consider it wrong.
There has been talk for a few days that the attack towards Kursk was a feint. Belgorod has 350k people, it would be an incredible coup if Ukraine could somehow gain control over that area.
Hell yeah
I'd love to know what the strategy is here. At a minimum, humiliating Putin domestically is already a win.
The Ukrainians and the rest of the internet sure are already happily taking the piss, and it is probably good for the morale of the AFU and the Ukrainian people in general after they've had a slowly creeping Russian advance to stomach for so long.
The border checkpoint in that area is certainly getting some phenomenal Google reviews:
As long as the situation is that Russia occupies Ukrainian territory, the only peace they will discuss is one where they annex large swathes of it. Clearly Russia has built much more expensive defenses in Ukraine than in their own territory. Maybe this could be a bargaining chip.
Seems awfully hard for them to keep it, but it should at least lead to Russian redeployment of troops. And at the very least it's embarrassing, as you say.
It also helps to show Putin’s weakness, and another “red line” has been crossed with no nuclear strikes.
Ukraine no longer need to fear going into Russia.
Ukraine no longer need to fear going into Russia.
Imagine if the US and others had been bullshitting us all this time about the restrictions on their long range weaponry, to give Russia a false sense of security…
It won’t be that, this’ll be drones on ammo stores again, but just imagine if Ukraines allies actually committed to helping end this war.
Could this be a "diversionary" attack - aimed at getting the Russians to move their SAM infrastructure to compensate for the attack. If the Russians move this in a panicked/ haphazard way it will be more vulnerable to Air attack as it won't have it's own overlapping coverage. I'm thinking the timing is significant with Ukraine getting it's first F16's. - so could be preparation for a sweeping air to ground attacks to wither Russian air / SAM resources.
Or is this too significant a scale attack to be for this?
Or is this too significant a scale attack to be for this?
When was the last time someone fighting Russia or the Sowjets actually made it to take the fight onto Russian soil? I'm no military expert but I don't remember anyone in the last 80 years.
They haven't exactly fought a lot of conventional wars (against other states), so there haven't been many chances. Georgia 2008 and... anything else except Ukraine?
Chechen wars, Afghanistan and all those uprisings in different parts of the S.U.
Those weren't against state actors, so taking the fight to Russian soil wasn't really an alternative. Except through terrorist attacks, of course.
Well hopefully it rocks them to their bones.
We never really know what goes on behind the scenes. I’ve finished reading a book about espionage and how it first started all the way back to the Greek Roman time to today, and with that in mind, nothing would surprise me.
You know things are bad on the front lines when Russians are aiming at the civilians out of pure retaliation.
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