When I went back to the start of the war I found a lot people saying the war couldn't happen and was saber rattling while the ISW was saying Putin was preparing to invade. You don't rate them now though.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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When I went back to the start of the war I found a lot people saying the war couldn't happen and was saber rattling while the ISW was saying Putin was preparing to invade. You don't rate them now though.
The doom and gloom on Ukraine's chances seems to stem from the increased chances of Trump and his newly announced VP. It is worrying, but remember these people have no principles and could easily change their minds after the election, if they even intended to do what they say in the first place. They are lying cnuts saying whatever they think gets them elected. After that they want to look good and get paid so its all up in the air really.(terrible state of affairs though it definitely is).
Certainly , they'll pivot in no time. Like before.
Ukraine has had a solid plan in getting the F16's in. Its been a very difficult to do and a long process which most people don't understand. F16 pilots take 9 months to train if they speak English and have been trained to fly by the USAF which the Ukrainians hadn't had the benefit of. After they learn to fly the thing and all the weapon systems their limits and controls they then get to learn how to fly combat at night in and in all weather. Then how to fly strike missions combined arms warfare and they will be out numbered from the get go in Ukraine.
The air bases in Ukraine are not up to US spec and will have had to be improved, which would make them a target unless you can protect them on the ground with air defenses. Could the pilots be spared? the defence systems moved etc etc etc. Then you to have the ground crew to be trained to service them and all the weapons brought in and the list goes on and on.
Its taken longer than expected but if they have done it right then the Russians are going to have a big problem.
The air bases in Ukraine are not up to US spec and will have had to be improved, which would make them a target unless you can protect them on the ground with air defenses. Could the pilots be spared? the defence systems moved etc etc etc. Then you to have the ground crew to be trained to service them and all the weapons brought in and the list goes on and on.
Its taken longer than expected but if they have done it right then the Russians are going to have a big problem.
I don't know, but if they don't the effect on Europe will be dramatic and the blow back very damaging for the US in ways the blowhards haven't even thought about yet , because its election time and the only opinion that matters is the US voters everyone else can wait.
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Ok, since you're being an asshat now, I'll actually respond to you.
You want to know how the US will actually procure these? You can see the production trajectories on the buys and the physical purchases. Or, the fact that Congress has actually put the orders in and the MIC has actually agreed to them. Congress doesn't just order stuff from thin air without the MIC partners agreeing to the numbers. The DoD can't just claim "We're going to order 25 Arleigh Burke Flight III's" without considering the fact that naval capacity caps it at 2.5 per year.
So, see figure [1] below which highlights US FY24 spend on Missiles. Note that it explicitly states that this part of the MYP LLM model that was highlighted in the previous posts. The spend on missiles alone is like 1/4th of the Russian defense budget.
Now, let's look at purchase numbers of key US platforms by the US military. Let's start with your favourite topic, Pac-3 missiles production. Please see figure [2] below highlighting Pac-3 MSE buys by the US military.
But wait, this is weird?! The US Military is buying less missiles year by year?! Yes, they are. But how does this mean production rates have increased! Surely this means the opposite!
Well, actually it shows that there's no demand. When the US Military themselves aren't buying it means a) the branches don't need them as they feel they have enough and b) The branches which use this platform has reached saturation.
Well, then you have this little caveat here which shows non-disclosed PAC-3 purchases funded by discretionary funding by the DoD.
What this shows is that the DoD is funding PAC-3 RDT&E but not for direct procurement. 1 Billion got thrown into improving Pac-3's, but improving what? Supply streams. Then, you have 3 years of DoD funding totally to around 800 million of procurement PAC-3 missiles without any specified quantity.
We call this "Ghost buys." The DoD is buying and investing in a billions worth of Pac-3's but none of the main military branches are the ones buying them. So who is buying them? Well, the answer is nobody. That funding is basically keeping the production lines open without any real purchases. It's basically spending over a billion in 2024 just to make sure that production lines are still operable despite there not being demand for them. The RDT&E budget is for incremental increases in performance across the whole spectrum but most importantly, for production line increases. In the past 3 years, the DoD spent 2 billion USD on Pac-3 upgrades, much of which will go into procurement increases.
From a pure budgetary perspective, PAC-3 production is at about 50% capacity right now, and there doesn't seem to be an immediate demand by the branches to want more.
Now, PAC-2's aren't even in the FY24 buys. What this means is that the DoD has no branch which has requested that they want or need PAC-2's. Yet, PAC-2 GEM-T's are in huge serial production. This again, means that the US armed forces has so many PAC-2's that nobody wants more as they have no use for them.
And then the final clanger. These FY reports are for US purchases only. When a foreign party buys or requests transfer of any weapons platform, it's not coming out of the DoD budget, it's coming out of whichever appropriations bill funded it or whichever 3rd party nation paid for it. The US demand for PAC-3's is so low due to saturation and even with the huge Ukrainian aid packages, the DoD are still paying billions just to keep the production lines from shutting down due to lack of demand.
This pattern exists across the board. Let's look at the Javelin. See Figure [3]
In 2022, US gave a shittonne of Javelins to Ukraine. They backfilled them, hence the huge buy numbers by the US Army and the US Marine Corps. 2023 and 2024? Nothing. There's no shortage so there's barely any purchases. Budgetary procurement went down by over 80%. And again, the DoD are paying for streamlined production increments with no purchases, just for the extra capacity "Just in case." The theory that "US is giving Ukraine their in service weapons and then scrambling to backfill" is utter garbage. IF there was such a scramble to backfill, we'd see higher purchase volumes.
Same story for HIMAR's ammunition. Demand has actually dropped after the surge in 2022 and 2023 by the DoD. Yet, despite the drop in demand, the investment into improvements into its production and effectiveness has almost 4x'd.
This is where it gets really interesting. The buys for AMRAMMs doubled in 2 years. FYI before 2022 it was always in the 2-300's range. By 2024 it had tripled to 800+. Again, what does this mean?
It means that production of Amraam's, like practically most US weapons platforms, was on low rate due to lack of necessity. This is geared towards a pacific war and as that war became more realistic, surges in production went back to full steam, meaning it 3x'd in 3 years.
Now below is the numbers for JASSM which really show how quickly the US can ramp up production when it really needs to.
In 2022 and 2023, and also in 2024, Huge budgetary increases in RDT&E. In 2023 they paid 785 million for 550 JASSM's. Yet in 2024 they paid over double that for the same number of missiles?
Again, ghost buys. The DoD made huge improvements to the production lines in anticipation for the Pacific War and there's no demand for a surge right now. So they're paying 800 million just to keep the production lines open at the MIC's side so when things need to be ramped up, it's at a click.
You want to see how fast DoD can improve production rates? See below for PrSH. The moment the US gave away their ATACAMS, they trebled their PrSH production.
None of this even shows any of the stuff that the MIC is producing but the US military doesn't want/doesn't need. PAC-2's, ATACAMS, AGM-HARMS. The US military industrial complex is chugging weapons like explosive diarrhea out of its arse, so much so that the DoD is paying the military contractors just to keep the production lines open because they have no use of lots of the weapons in production.
So to summarize:
1) DoD buys show what the military is lacking. The fact that buys have gone down show there's not much backfilling. The US backfilled Javelins in 2022. Then everyone stopped buying them. This shows that the claim that US are giving away current in service equipment and backfilling them is not true.
2) It shows that with stuff like PAC-3's, even WITH Raytheon making PAC-3's and PAC-2's to give to Ukraine, funded by different bills, the DoD are STILL having to pay Raytheon to keep the production lines warm in case of a need for a future surge.
3) That there is huge amounts of money being thrown into improving production lines.
4) Given the LLM contracts drawn with the MIC's, there is a high degree of confidence and expectation that the MIC's will hold their end of the bargain. The main branch that doesn't usually adhere to this (The navy) is irrelevant to Ukraine.
That said, there are still problems with US procurement, but not ones relevant to the war in Ukraine.
1) Shipbuilding is a fecking nightmare.
2) TLAM production still isn't great
3) Lockheed Martin are building shit tonnes of F-35's but the US aren't buying them, so they're prioritizing partner countries.
4) LRASM and SM-6 production is still bottlenecked. This will really need to be solved by the time a shooting war in the Pacific happens.
P-S EDIT -> I think it's very clear how the US feels about its conventional war procurement readiness when the majority of it's production line investment spending is geared towards the Pacific and not Ukraine.
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Let's compare to Russia's amazing procurement of weapons
Interesting, the Russian's, who are in a war, can't even produce the total number of cruise missiles per year as the number of JASSM's that the US buys, and that's just the US buys, not total production. And the US already has a stockpile of 12,000 JASSMs and are not in a war.
180 Iskanders per year....but wait. I thought the AFU were using more Pac-2s and Pac-3's per month than US is able to produce in a year????!?! That's what Sudesi told me. From this data it seems like Russia is only able to procure 600+- Cruise and tactical ballistic missiles a year. What are Ukraine shooting at with their 1000's of Interceptors per month?!?!
So....Russia, who are at war, plan to procure 1000 Anti air missiles in 4 years.....Which is less than just the PAC-3 buys by the US Military alone in the same timeframe...not including Partner buys....and with the US PAC-3 production running at half capacity.
Interesting, the Russian's, who are in a war, can't even produce the total number of cruise missiles per year as the number of JASSM's that the US buys, and that's just the US buys, not total production. And the US already has a stockpile of 12,000 JASSMs and are not in a war.
180 Iskanders per year....but wait. I thought the AFU were using more Pac-2s and Pac-3's per month than US is able to produce in a year????!?! That's what Sudesi told me. From this data it seems like Russia is only able to procure 600+- Cruise and tactical ballistic missiles a year. What are Ukraine shooting at with their 1000's of Interceptors per month?!?!
So....Russia, who are at war, plan to procure 1000 Anti air missiles in 4 years.....Which is less than just the PAC-3 buys by the US Military alone in the same timeframe...not including Partner buys....and with the US PAC-3 production running at half capacity.
And then we look at the old soviet equipment stock depletion and realize they have burned through 2/3 of their old stored equipment despite all the boasting about increased supplies.
That's why the 130mm towed artillery only started to be taken out of storage because NK/Iran sent Russia their ammunition. That's a 1950's? artillery gun.
And the more recent back up good condition weapons are already gone. The upgraded old equipment with night sights get less night sights and the old BMP's with the upgraded gun get fewer upgraded.
It all points in one direction the Russians are struggling to keep up with losses and their army is turning into the old soviet equipped one.
What do we think happens to Russian losses as they down grade their tech against NATO supplied modern weapons, you would have to figure they would mount.
70'000 in May and June because of the Kharkiv attack.
That's why the 130mm towed artillery only started to be taken out of storage because NK/Iran sent Russia their ammunition. That's a 1950's? artillery gun.
And the more recent back up good condition weapons are already gone. The upgraded old equipment with night sights get less night sights and the old BMP's with the upgraded gun get fewer upgraded.
It all points in one direction the Russians are struggling to keep up with losses and their army is turning into the old soviet equipped one.
What do we think happens to Russian losses as they down grade their tech against NATO supplied modern weapons, you would have to figure they would mount.
70'000 in May and June because of the Kharkiv attack.
Well. That was glorious.
Thanks once more for such an interesting factual post. I hope @Suedesi rattles you as much as possible to piss you off like that
Seriously, what are the odds of a Man Utd supporting, Ukrainian born, NATO serving, army intelligence officer joining us a year ago to slap down trolls in the Ukraine thread on our little corner of the internet?
Some small part of me still thinks he's some elaborate AI prototype being tested on us. Sucking us all in with ridiculously good posts, before inevitably turning to the dark side and convincing us Ukraine needs to submit. Maybe we pissed off DT12 enough he unleashed their greatest weapon
Just to add further to PAC-3 discussion, since that seems to be the primary contention:
This is from a Lockheed Martin official release. Note the wording and the language.
1) Confirmed current production of PAC-3 MSE is at 550 a year. PAC-3's alone right now covers practically all annual Russian offensive missile production. Add in the PAC-2 GEM-T production by Raytheon and PAC-3 legacy production and the US is producing well over 1000+ Interceptors a year.
2) Note how Lockheed is basically currently producing 2x more interceptor missiles than the Army is buying. Basically, confirmed the above that the US military demands is at 50% of capacity.
3) Note how Lockheed is increasing production to 650, not because they think it's necessary for Ukraine (which isn't even mentioned in this briefing from 2 months ago), but they want to sell it to the USN and integrate it with Aegis. This shows that the procurement urgency is still in the Pacific, not Ukraine, despite what people are saying.
This is from a Lockheed Martin official release. Note the wording and the language.
1) Confirmed current production of PAC-3 MSE is at 550 a year. PAC-3's alone right now covers practically all annual Russian offensive missile production. Add in the PAC-2 GEM-T production by Raytheon and PAC-3 legacy production and the US is producing well over 1000+ Interceptors a year.
2) Note how Lockheed is basically currently producing 2x more interceptor missiles than the Army is buying. Basically, confirmed the above that the US military demands is at 50% of capacity.
3) Note how Lockheed is increasing production to 650, not because they think it's necessary for Ukraine (which isn't even mentioned in this briefing from 2 months ago), but they want to sell it to the USN and integrate it with Aegis. This shows that the procurement urgency is still in the Pacific, not Ukraine, despite what people are saying.
I do think it’s valuable in hearing takes in opposition to your own views or understanding, but I just feel so disappointed at how it always seems to be projected in such bad faith, either rooted in an ideological underpinning, factual falsehoods or with a clear misunderstanding of geopolitical game theory.
The fundamental axiom of this conflict, that is going to be a precedent for future conflicts to come is what can a nuclear capable nation do to one which is not (or is not part of an alliance.)
The fundamental axiom of this conflict, that is going to be a precedent for future conflicts to come is what can a nuclear capable nation do to one which is not (or is not part of an alliance.)
See this is why I don't like doing detailed posts with certain people, and I kinda got baited into doing the last rounds.
They're not here to have rational debate or to discuss in good faith, just here to troll and then feck off when they're called out for their bullshit.
They're not here to have rational debate or to discuss in good faith, just here to troll and then feck off when they're called out for their bullshit.
Quality control
Shut up and keep churning information, baitboy
Sounds like one of the new Patriot or SAMP/T batteries have been placed in the Odessa region.
It's anyway appreciated by the others though. Really informative stuff.
I'm wating for Putin take a shot at the iconic Opera House, which is right next to the port area in Odesa.
Cubans Are Still Being Recruited by Russia to Fight in Ukraine
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ne-cubans-are-still-being-recruited-by-russia
Iryna Farion has been shot dead in Lviv.
Well, on one hand she was a nasty piece of work ultranationalist who took the "screw Russia" rhetoric to "feck everyone who isn't ethnic Ukrainian"
On the other side this was almost certainly a piece of work by the Russians.
Well, on one hand she was a nasty piece of work ultranationalist who took the "screw Russia" rhetoric to "feck everyone who isn't ethnic Ukrainian"
On the other side this was almost certainly a piece of work by the Russians.
UPOD time again, I suppose
Did he come back from this?
https://www.newsweek.com/top-russian-economist-dies-after-falling-out-window-1929398#:~:text=Valentina Bondarenko, a top Russian,run media reported on Tuesday.
Maybe she said something she shouldnt have?
Maybe she said something she shouldnt have?
He couped out
Looks like a sizeable Wagner convoy got knocked out in Mali and a Grey Zone administrator (propaganda channel) was among the casualties. Dozens of casualties (allegedly).
I picked a source more or less at random, because I was reading about it in Norwegian media.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davida...arget-russian-bombers-at-their-northern-base/
Ukraine has bombed Olenya airfield in Murmansk, 1800 km from the Russia-Ukraine border. The previous record was apparently 1300 km.
200 km from Norway/Finland, 500 km from Sweden.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davida...arget-russian-bombers-at-their-northern-base/
Ukraine has bombed Olenya airfield in Murmansk, 1800 km from the Russia-Ukraine border. The previous record was apparently 1300 km.
200 km from Norway/Finland, 500 km from Sweden.
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What now?
Sorry, missed a zero while translating from memory, I read it yesterday.
A lot of internal criticism in Ukraine regarding leadership. Common argument is that the military is still too Sovietized and they should be fighter smarter/more resourceful than the Russians but it's not happening enough.
He needs to significantly curtail his tea consumption and window viewing
Hmm, if true, wonder who the Russians will receive in return.