Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

People shouldn't be too quick to come to conclusions.

We should first let Russia conduct their own investigation to see if they deliberately targeted that children's hospital.
 
:lol:

I wonder what will that investigation say. Something along the lines of that being a debris of Ukrainian AA projectiles. Better yet lets wait for a Russian investigation if they're bombing Kiev and other cities in the first place.
 
People shouldn't be too quick to come to conclusions.

We should first let Russia conduct their own investigation to see if they deliberately targeted that children's hospital.
Russia has that right to defend itself.

Jokes aside, disgusting crimes.
 
@harms How is the current temperature among the russian population and how strong is the support for the war and/or Putin?
I've stumbled upon this survey, it seems legit and more or less aligns with my personal experience. It doesn't focus on Moscow/Saint Petersburg, which is a good thing as they're not really representative of the rest of the country. The organization that conducted the survey is also labeled a "foreign agent" by the Russian government, which is always a good sign.

It's a ~250 pages long pdf in Russian that I've put through google-translate, so it inevitably is going to have some translation/formatting issues but it should be readable.

An ethnographic study conducted in the fall in three regions of Russia: Buryatia, Krasnodar
Territory and Sverdlovsk Region, revealed the following trends:

1. Russian society remains politically demobilized and de-ideologized.
Contrary to popular belief about its rapid militarization, we see
that war is becoming a familiar and therefore invisible part of
reality. For example, compared to the first year of the war, the
number of war symbols in public spaces is decreasing in all three
regions. War does not become a source of new ideas in the
cultural life of cities and villages, integrating into familiar and
already proven cultural formats. The war is not discussed in
public places and, with rare exceptions, in local online
communities.

2. The participation of people in various types of military volunteering
and collective assistance to the army, which is usually mentioned
as an example of the mobilization and militarization of Russian
society, is usually associated with administrative pressure, moral
norms of the community (relating to mutual assistance) or the
desire to help loved ones, and not with the desire - to bring
Russia’s victory closer.

3. Conflict in relations between opponents and non-opponents of the
war is gradually decreasing, and between those who remained
in Russia and those who left it is increasing. This happens both
because the shared experience of living through a difficult
situation within the country becomes more important for many
Russians than differences in views, and because people discuss
the war less.

4. At the same time, reducing conflict in relations between opponents
and non-opponents of war does not always lead to an increase
in the cohesion of society. Since people try to live as if there is
no war, and the state does not talk about losses and problems
associated with the war, then everything the negative consequences of the war are either normalized or
relegated to the realm of personal difficulties that there is no one to
discuss with and which everyone is forced to cope with on their own.


5. At the same time, many people are strengthening their national identity, and
sometimes there is a demand for greater solidarity. It is important that
strengthening national identity does not lead to Russians adopting official
imperial nationalism. Unlike the Kremlin, ordinary people live in a world of
nation-states, and not in a world of imperial fantasies (according to which
Ukraine is not a real state and Ukrainians are an inferior people).

6. Apolitical war-justifying Russians are becoming more critical and increasingly
doubtful of official explanations for the conflict. Their criticism differs from the
criticism of opponents of the war, but also has a moral nature. For opponents
of the invasion, war is a moral crime against Ukraine, while for apolitical
Russians, war destroys the “moral foundations” of Russian society - the
integrity of the family or the value of humanity
the negative consequences of the war are either normalized or
relegated to the realm of personal difficulties that there is no one to
discuss with and which everyone is forced to cope with on their own.

7. Regardless of their views on the war, many Russians are increasingly distrustful
of political news from a variety of sources. Instead, they trust local media: local
issues and news covered by these media seem more important and relevant to
them. People don’t believe that they can influence anything, so they don’t want
to watch news about the war or talk about it.

8. The feeling of uncertainty is what truly unites Russians today. Despite the fact that
people develop different strategies to cope with this feeling, it still greatly
complicates the ability to plan their lives and plunges Russians into pessimism.
 
:lol:

I wonder what will that investigation say. Something along the lines of that being a debris of Ukrainian AA projectiles. Better yet lets wait for a Russian investigation if they're bombing Kiev and other cities in the first place.
I take you didn't get the reference.
 
Guys, can we not use this thread to make thinly veiled "witty jokes" regarding Israel please?

It's neither funny and comes across as very insensitive to what's happening in Ukraine right now.
 
:lol:

I wonder what will that investigation say. Something along the lines of that being a debris of Ukrainian AA projectiles. Better yet lets wait for a Russian investigation if they're bombing Kiev and other cities in the first place.

I frequent a very pro-russian reddit sub for amusements sake. The current line is that it was a NASAMS AIM-120 air defence missile and the frame by frame analysis proving its clearly a kh-101 must be doctored. That, or it didn't hit the hospital, it it a building nearby storing weapons or something.
 
I've stumbled upon this survey, it seems legit and more or less aligns with my personal experience. It doesn't focus on Moscow/Saint Petersburg, which is a good thing as they're not really representative of the rest of the country. The organization that conducted the survey is also labeled a "foreign agent" by the Russian government, which is always a good sign.

It's a ~250 pages long pdf in Russian that I've put through google-translate, so it inevitably is going to have some translation/formatting issues but it should be readable.

An ethnographic study conducted in the fall in three regions of Russia: Buryatia, Krasnodar
Territory and Sverdlovsk Region, revealed the following trends:

1. Russian society remains politically demobilized and de-ideologized.
Contrary to popular belief about its rapid militarization, we see
that war is becoming a familiar and therefore invisible part of
reality. For example, compared to the first year of the war, the
number of war symbols in public spaces is decreasing in all three
regions. War does not become a source of new ideas in the
cultural life of cities and villages, integrating into familiar and
already proven cultural formats. The war is not discussed in
public places and, with rare exceptions, in local online
communities.

2. The participation of people in various types of military volunteering
and collective assistance to the army, which is usually mentioned
as an example of the mobilization and militarization of Russian
society, is usually associated with administrative pressure, moral
norms of the community (relating to mutual assistance) or the
desire to help loved ones, and not with the desire - to bring
Russia’s victory closer.

3. Conflict in relations between opponents and non-opponents of the
war is gradually decreasing, and between those who remained
in Russia and those who left it is increasing. This happens both
because the shared experience of living through a difficult
situation within the country becomes more important for many
Russians than differences in views, and because people discuss
the war less.

4. At the same time, reducing conflict in relations between opponents
and non-opponents of war does not always lead to an increase
in the cohesion of society. Since people try to live as if there is
no war, and the state does not talk about losses and problems
associated with the war, then everything the negative consequences of the war are either normalized or
relegated to the realm of personal difficulties that there is no one to
discuss with and which everyone is forced to cope with on their own.


5. At the same time, many people are strengthening their national identity, and
sometimes there is a demand for greater solidarity. It is important that
strengthening national identity does not lead to Russians adopting official
imperial nationalism. Unlike the Kremlin, ordinary people live in a world of
nation-states, and not in a world of imperial fantasies (according to which
Ukraine is not a real state and Ukrainians are an inferior people).

6. Apolitical war-justifying Russians are becoming more critical and increasingly
doubtful of official explanations for the conflict. Their criticism differs from the
criticism of opponents of the war, but also has a moral nature. For opponents
of the invasion, war is a moral crime against Ukraine, while for apolitical
Russians, war destroys the “moral foundations” of Russian society - the
integrity of the family or the value of humanity
the negative consequences of the war are either normalized or
relegated to the realm of personal difficulties that there is no one to
discuss with and which everyone is forced to cope with on their own.

7. Regardless of their views on the war, many Russians are increasingly distrustful
of political news from a variety of sources. Instead, they trust local media: local
issues and news covered by these media seem more important and relevant to
them. People don’t believe that they can influence anything, so they don’t want
to watch news about the war or talk about it.

8. The feeling of uncertainty is what truly unites Russians today. Despite the fact that
people develop different strategies to cope with this feeling, it still greatly
complicates the ability to plan their lives and plunges Russians into pessimism.

Interesting. What's the economy like current for the average joe or your pov?

I watched some analysis of recent published data (assuming kremlin economic data is true), that showed inflation is slowly ticking up again after last years intervention, currently 8.3% with food around those levels. Wage growth firmly outpacing it, though that my be skewed from military personnel. Interest rates still 16% for now, great if you have savings, though I don't expect most of Russia's pop get to enjoy that. I don't know what % of people have significant mortgages or other debts they will be suffering with right now? Military spending approaching 15% of GDP, not really sustainable long term, no growth prospects. Main issue seems to be manpower, unemployment down to 2% which would be good in any western economy, but Russia appears to be at the point now there just isn't enough labour, which will further cripple the economy. I imagine day to day products are well covered by Chinese imports?
 
I frequent a very pro-russian reddit sub for amusements sake. The current line is that it was a NASAMS AIM-120 air defence missile and the frame by frame analysis proving its clearly a kh-101 must be doctored. That, or it didn't hit the hospital, it it a building nearby storing weapons or something.
You dont even need to look at the videos just listen to them, the sound is clearly from a jet engine and AA missiles uses rocket engines.
 
Here's better footage of several missiles incoming. You can see them flying.

 
Interesting. What's the economy like current for the average joe or your pov?

I watched some analysis of recent published data (assuming kremlin economic data is true), that showed inflation is slowly ticking up again after last years intervention, currently 8.3% with food around those levels. Wage growth firmly outpacing it, though that my be skewed from military personnel. Interest rates still 16% for now, great if you have savings, though I don't expect most of Russia's pop get to enjoy that. I don't know what % of people have significant mortgages or other debts they will be suffering with right now? Military spending approaching 15% of GDP, not really sustainable long term, no growth prospects. Main issue seems to be manpower, unemployment down to 2% which would be good in any western economy, but Russia appears to be at the point now there just isn't enough labour, which will further cripple the economy. I imagine day to day products are well covered by Chinese imports?
Generally the real inflation rate feels bit insane — if we’re talking about food and other necessities they’ve skyrocketed in price. Imported goods are also much pricier now — mostly because of the huge drop in ruble’s evaluation but there are also the added costs of increasingly complicated logistics.

The supposed growth of economy is… real and artificial at the same time. A lot of people are benefitting from the war — not just those in the military (who are getting an unprecedentedly high salary — around 200k rubles per month and I’m not even counting a signing bonus which varies depending on the region, while the average non-military salary in those regions is closer to 30-40k) but also those who work in all the military-adjacent spheres, as so much money from oil reserves is getting pumped into it. IT sphere is overflowing with money — it’s the sphere that was hurt the most by this post-war emigration wave, so in order to stay competitive in a scarce HR market they’ve raised their salaries massively. More niche thing that I’ve noticed due to my profession is the unlikely growth of the Russian art market — while a lot of artist left the country, most of the buyers are now limited to buying only locally (instead of the usual annual trip to Art Basel, buying stuff from Christie’s etc.), which really boosts the sales numbers.

As a consumer whose salary hadn’t increased as I, thankfully, don’t work in a sphere that has anything to do with military or military production, it’s getting noticeably tougher. But it’s the non-involved middle class that suffers the most — the rich are getting richer (as always) and the poor, who are the most vulnerable as a target for a potential army recruitment (or even simply a high-paying job in a rapidly expanding military production sector — they always need hands and now more than ever), are also getting richer.

Sorry for a badly structured rambling but that’s all that I’ve got tonight!
 
Generally the real inflation rate feels bit insane — if we’re talking about food and other necessities they’ve skyrocketed in price. Imported goods are also much pricier now — mostly because of the huge drop in ruble’s evaluation but there are also the added costs of increasingly complicated logistics.

The supposed growth of economy is… real and artificial at the same time. A lot of people are benefitting from the war — not just those in the military (who are getting an unprecedentedly high salary — around 200k rubles per month and I’m not even counting a signing bonus which varies depending on the region, while the average non-military salary in those regions is closer to 30-40k) but also those who work in all the military-adjacent spheres, as so much money from oil reserves is getting pumped into it. IT sphere is overflowing with money — it’s the sphere that was hurt the most by this post-war emigration wave, so in order to stay competitive in a scarce HR market they’ve raised their salaries massively. More niche thing that I’ve noticed due to my profession is the unlikely growth of the Russian art market — while a lot of artist left the country, most of the buyers are now limited to buying only locally (instead of the usual annual trip to Art Basel, buying stuff from Christie’s etc.), which really boosts the sales numbers.

As a consumer whose salary hadn’t increased as I, thankfully, don’t work in a sphere that has anything to do with military or military production, it’s getting noticeably tougher. But it’s the non-involved middle class that suffers the most — the rich are getting richer (as always) and the poor, who are the most vulnerable as a target for a potential army recruitment (or even simply a high-paying job in a rapidly expanding military production sector — they always need hands and now more than ever), are also getting richer.

Sorry for a badly structured rambling but that’s all that I’ve got tonight!

Feck, that's more than what most OR-1's and OR-2's are paid in the UK/US and that's taking into consideration the really inflated Rubles exchange rate.

How are Russia able to afford to pay enlisted men higher than US/UK counterparts in absolute terms?
 
Feck, that's more than what most OR-1's and OR-2's are paid in the UK/US and that's taking into consideration the really inflated Rubles exchange rate.

How are Russia able to afford to pay enlisted men higher than US/UK counterparts in absolute terms?
It had billions & billions in the reserve fund from decades of oil & gas sales that it's now spending on war like there's no tomorrow. Why spend it on healthcare or education of your own citizens when you can spend it on murdering your neighbours.

Just to reiterate — it's just the Ukraine war rates. Usually when Russia isn't invading anyone the army salaries are much, much smaller. But they struggle with recruitment even with mobilization (while desperately needing new manpower all the time), so the answer was to shower potential recruits with money.
 
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Feck, that's more than what most OR-1's and OR-2's are paid in the UK/US and that's taking into consideration the really inflated Rubles exchange rate.

How are Russia able to afford to pay enlisted men higher than US/UK counterparts in absolute terms?

200k rubles per month is like 2,200 USD per month. That's way closer to a new E3 than a O1. An O1 makes like 4k USD per month

https://www.military.com/benefits/military-pay/charts
 
It had billions & billions in the reserve fund from decades of oil & gas sales that it's now spending on war like there's no tomorrow. Why spend it on healthcare or education of your own citizens when you can spend it on murdering your neighbours.

Just to reiterate — it's just the Ukraine war rates. Usually when Russia isn't invading anyone the army salaries are much, much smaller. But they struggle with recruitment even with mobilization (while desperately needing new manpower all the time), so the answer was to shower potential recruits with money.

In my view, the time is right for the West/NATO to really accelerate the delivery of air defence as well as ground defence and attack systems to Ukraine.

The russian tactics are clearly to ground down the people of Ukraine, with no specific time limit on the war.

And while this enhanced support to Ukraine is undoubtedly expensive, in the long run it will be many orders of magnitude more expensive if russia is successful.
 
In my view, the time is right for the West/NATO to really accelerate the delivery of air defence as well as ground defence and attack systems to Ukraine.

The russian tactics are clearly to ground down the people of Ukraine, with no specific time limit on the war.

And while this enhanced support to Ukraine is undoubtedly expensive, in the long run it will be many orders of magnitude more expensive if russia is successful.
The time was right 2,5 years ago but yeah.
 
I've stumbled upon this survey, it seems legit and more or less aligns with my personal experience. It doesn't focus on Moscow/Saint Petersburg, which is a good thing as they're not really representative of the rest of the country. The organization that conducted the survey is also labeled a "foreign agent" by the Russian government, which is always a good sign.

It's a ~250 pages long pdf in Russian that I've put through google-translate, so it inevitably is going to have some translation/formatting issues but it should be readable.

An ethnographic study conducted in the fall in three regions of Russia: Buryatia, Krasnodar
Territory and Sverdlovsk Region, revealed the following trends:

1. Russian society remains politically demobilized and de-ideologized.
Contrary to popular belief about its rapid militarization, we see
that war is becoming a familiar and therefore invisible part of
reality. For example, compared to the first year of the war, the
number of war symbols in public spaces is decreasing in all three
regions. War does not become a source of new ideas in the
cultural life of cities and villages, integrating into familiar and
already proven cultural formats. The war is not discussed in
public places and, with rare exceptions, in local online
communities.

2. The participation of people in various types of military volunteering
and collective assistance to the army, which is usually mentioned
as an example of the mobilization and militarization of Russian
society, is usually associated with administrative pressure, moral
norms of the community (relating to mutual assistance) or the
desire to help loved ones, and not with the desire - to bring
Russia’s victory closer.

3. Conflict in relations between opponents and non-opponents of the
war is gradually decreasing, and between those who remained
in Russia and those who left it is increasing. This happens both
because the shared experience of living through a difficult
situation within the country becomes more important for many
Russians than differences in views, and because people discuss
the war less.

4. At the same time, reducing conflict in relations between opponents
and non-opponents of war does not always lead to an increase
in the cohesion of society. Since people try to live as if there is
no war, and the state does not talk about losses and problems
associated with the war, then everything the negative consequences of the war are either normalized or
relegated to the realm of personal difficulties that there is no one to
discuss with and which everyone is forced to cope with on their own.


5. At the same time, many people are strengthening their national identity, and
sometimes there is a demand for greater solidarity. It is important that
strengthening national identity does not lead to Russians adopting official
imperial nationalism. Unlike the Kremlin, ordinary people live in a world of
nation-states, and not in a world of imperial fantasies (according to which
Ukraine is not a real state and Ukrainians are an inferior people).

6. Apolitical war-justifying Russians are becoming more critical and increasingly
doubtful of official explanations for the conflict. Their criticism differs from the
criticism of opponents of the war, but also has a moral nature. For opponents
of the invasion, war is a moral crime against Ukraine, while for apolitical
Russians, war destroys the “moral foundations” of Russian society - the
integrity of the family or the value of humanity
the negative consequences of the war are either normalized or
relegated to the realm of personal difficulties that there is no one to
discuss with and which everyone is forced to cope with on their own.

7. Regardless of their views on the war, many Russians are increasingly distrustful
of political news from a variety of sources. Instead, they trust local media: local
issues and news covered by these media seem more important and relevant to
them. People don’t believe that they can influence anything, so they don’t want
to watch news about the war or talk about it.

8. The feeling of uncertainty is what truly unites Russians today. Despite the fact that
people develop different strategies to cope with this feeling, it still greatly
complicates the ability to plan their lives and plunges Russians into pessimism.

All in all, everyone is still trying to cope and get on with their daily lives the best they can.

The war is still too far away to seriously put any real pressure or pose any kind of threat to Putin, even if the clock's somewhat ticking.

Enlightening article. Many thanks.
 
Not buying it.

What purpose would that serve?

Can a manufacturer says that they don't want to sell their product to Ukraine? or is mandatory if the german government says so? if it is the former, might scare him and other manufacturers. Anything helps in war
 
Can a manufacturer says that they don't want to sell their product to Ukraine? or is mandatory if the german government says so? if it is the former, might scare him and other manufacturers. Anything helps in war
Rheinmetal are an indipendent company so it's most likely the former.
 
Can a manufacturer says that they don't want to sell their product to Ukraine? or is mandatory if the german government says so? if it is the former, might scare him and other manufacturers. Anything helps in war
This is not Hollywood and these scare tactics never work.

He's a civilian and not someone in a position of power. Killing him won't stop Rheinmetall producing their goods and would harden Germany's position on the war. Russia has absolutely nothing to gain by killing him.

Sabotaging factories and destroying equipment is something I would perfectly understand and I'm sure that Russia did it already, but this is completely ridiculous. Not having it.
 
This is not Hollywood and these scare tactics never work.

He's a civilian and not someone in a position of power. Killing him won't stop Rheinmetall producing their goods and would harden Germany's position on the war. Russia has absolutely nothing to gain by killing him.

Sabotaging factories and destroying equipment is something I would perfectly understand and I'm sure that Russia did it already, but this is completely ridiculous. Not having it.

I think russian scare tacticians knows a thing or two to qualify it as completely ridiculous
 
This is not Hollywood and these scare tactics never work.

He's a civilian and not someone in a position of power. Killing him won't stop Rheinmetall producing their goods and would harden Germany's position on the war. Russia has absolutely nothing to gain by killing him.

Sabotaging factories and destroying equipment is something I would perfectly understand and I'm sure that Russia did it already, but this is completely ridiculous. Not having it.

Of course they wouldn't kill him he would just fall from a window or commit suicide with 3 bullets to his back.
 
I mean, Putin is known to do rational things all the time, especially with invading Ukraine.

And Putin is master at using and executing of scare tactics but this guy is not exactly a Russian. Then again, see the rational comment above.
 
Kira Korolev, a 40-year-old army private, and her 62-year-old husband Igor Korolev faced court in Brisbane on Friday, each on one count of preparing for an espionage offence – which carries a maximum 15-year jail sentence.