Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Raoul said:
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Those losses are staggering. It’s amazing that there hasn’t been more revolt with how many people must have lost sons, fathers, brothers, friends, etc. Then again people probably don’t want the Prigozhin treatment.
 
Morty_ said:
It's going to come and bite EU, cause Russia doesn't stop with Ukraine, they want a bigger piece of Europe than that.

At some point, there will be direct confrontation between Russia and NATO.
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Yeah, no. On both accounts.

Russia doesn't have the military means for that and this myth needs to die. We're not talking about weak, third world countries one can easily bully and bomb back to the stone age, like the US usually does.

Ukraine's fate (NATO or in the russian influence sphere) was an open question since the fall of the Soviet Union. Russia considers it a Rubicon that the West should never cross and it won't let it slide, ever. That's why I'm highly skeptical of Ukraine joining NATO anytime soon. The Russians will never budge on that point, unless utterly defeated on the battlefield. Just like the US would never allow any country in their direct backyard forge an alliance treaty with a potential enemy or let them build military bases there (Monroe Doctrine).

Does it justify the invasion of Ukraine? Of course not, they're 100% in the wrong. However this blabbering about Russia trying to gobble up Ukraine and eyeing a piece of Western Europe is completely ridiculous. You can't conquer and occupy a country as big as Ukraine with just 300,000 soldiers, that's lunacy. They bet on a lightning victory to overthrow the current government and a put a puppet regime instead whilst grabbing some juicy territories along the way. And they massively failed. Yet people seriously think that Russia wants to pick up a fight with NATO? There's a limit to what propaganda can hammer in your brain.
 
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Morty_ said:
An emboldened Russia could well be tempted into taking a piece of the Baltics, you think NATO, with its lack of comittment to Ukraine, would risk open war, possibly nuclear, over one of its smaller/lesser members? I'm not so sure they would.

At the minimum, they would take Moldova, and start trying to cause instability in Romania in some way.
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The moment NATO refuses to defend one of its members is the moment it ceases to exist. Immediately.

I don't see how it's possible to look at what Russia has done and failed to do in Ukraine, a country which was considered a corrupt, failing mess - while Russia was considered to be maybe the premier fighting force by many - and conclude that actually they both want and could handle a fight with NATO.
 
Mike Smalling said:
Those losses are staggering. It’s amazing that there hasn’t been more revolt with how many people must have lost sons, fathers, brothers, friends, etc. Then again people probably don’t want the Prigozhin treatment.
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These are numbers from the Ukrainian High Command, so I'd take them with something akin to a feckton of salt. Just like the Russians'.
 
That_Bloke said:
These are numbers from the Ukrainian High Command, so I'd take them with something akin to a feckton of salt. Just like the Russians'.
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Oh good, point I thought it might have been the ones from British intelligence, which are also sometimes posted.
 
This stage of the war is ultimately over. Ukraine needs winged hussars but instead they are dragging untrained and unmotivated men onto the battlefield. They were doing that for months but finally it is being reported by non-Russian propaganda like NYT.

Now it is time to calibrate speaking points. Sorta hard to believe that Russia at the same time is collapsing, losing tremendous number of soldiers and equipment, and at the same time Putin is going to play Risk and roll the dice into a NATO country. But hey, he is a madman so anything can happen.
 
Unlike Russia who are dragging trained and motivated men onto the battlefield I guess?
 
Lemoor said:
What the feck are you talking about?
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He's trying to justify Russian aggression.

Love the alleged aggressor part too. Occupied a 3rd of a country, bombing the rest daily, killing civilians in thousands, destroying their infrastructure, economy and practically everything = alleged aggressor.

Sounds legit.

But hey maybe Ukrainians are in fact Russians and its a Russian land anyway so Russia had to do it. Didnt want to but had to.
 
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The Firestarter said:
Wait, did I miss something? Weren't they already under full mobilisation after the initial invasion?
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This is a quote from the Deputy Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence Yegor Chernov from August:

There are four stages of mobilization in Ukraine. And the fourth one assumes that all men go to war. Now we are in the second stage of mobilization. But if the country is in danger and there is a real threat of losing its statehood, then everyone will go, as it was on February 24. I think it is the duty of every man to defend his own country. However, today we are not talking about this option
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https://visitukraine.today/blog/250...lization-in-ukraine-change-in-the-near-future
 
Yet even with our suffering, weariness, and struggles, Ukrainians are not willing to give up, to opt for “peace” at any price. Eighty percent of Ukrainians oppose making territorial concessions to Russia, according to a recent survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.
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Raoul said:
That's a hell of a lot of people. Hopefully they have the resources (weapons) to actually make a difference.
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And hopefully, NATO steps up, and gives Ukraine what it needs, instead of just enough for them to hold on.

I doubt that they will though, NATO's objective isn't really the same as Ukraine's objective.
 
Ukraine’s Front-Line Troops Are Getting Older: ‘Physically, I Can’t Handle This’

Tired fighters note bitterly that when they go on leave in big cities such as Kyiv or Dnipro, they see able-bodied men in their 20s and 30s frequenting gyms, bars and hip restaurants.

“We don’t have full-on mobilization” of society, said a drone operator with the Ukrainian Navy’s special forces, known by his call sign Dobro. “But it’s a necessity. We can’t do without it.”
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https://www.wsj.com/world/ukraines-...hysically-i-cant-handle-this-46d9b2c7?mod=mhp
 
Aside from the political problem posed by mobilising the Kyiv/Dnipro/Lviv middle class who don't want to fight, those "able-bodied men in their 20s and 30s frequenting gyms, bars and hip restaurants" are the people who are just about holding what's left of the Ukrainian economy together. To be crude, they're the men who Ukraine can't afford to see killed en masse while their economic situation is as fraught as it is and millions of young Ukrainian men are still in Europe with no intention of returning. The EU and the US are squabbling about the money they already provide to Ukraine. Total mobilisation would require many more times the amount of economic aid they're already providing only to keep the economy afloat, let alone to train and arm another half a million soldiers. As Zelenskiy said in his press conference yesterday, it's the most politically difficult question he's faced. It's not as simple as "Ukraine needs total mobilisation and the West needs to pay whatever it costs". He's got several very complex interests to balance at once. Western leaders are trying to move away from the narrative that Ukraine is fighting for global freedom (it's hard to keep pushing that angle when at the same time you're making Zelenskiy come over to Washington to literally beg on camera for the financial and military ability to, as Biden used to put it, "defend America's own national security") and shift it back to Ukraine alone, i.e "Ukraine is fighting for its very existence" (John Kirby yesterday, the first press conference in a long time he hasn't gone with the sky-will-fall "Ukraine is defending Western democracy" narrative). Another thing that was clear from Zelenskiy's press conference yesterday is that both Zelenskiy and Putin are laser-focussed on their goals, but the West is not. The West has no clear aim for this war. They don't even know if they want Ukraine to win it. Before mobilising half a million more men who don't want to fight (or else they'd already have volunteered), and the enormous political pressure he will receive if he does that, Zelenskiy will need an absolutely iron-clad guarantee from the West that the economic and military aid will not stop, in fact will be massively ramped up, at least from now until November 2024. So far he's not getting that guarantee, in fact all the signals he's receiving point the other way.
 
Raoul said:
He's got a point. Despite the gloom and doom of the counteroffensive stalling and money potentially running out, the price Russia has had to pay appears far steeper in terms of people, weapons, and economic impact.
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It really annoys me tbh. The endless barrage of western media doomsayers critisizing the Ukrainian efforts, lapping up every bit of propaganda, despite the incredible achievements they have made and continue to make.

Failed counter-offensive??? The very fact Ukraine put Russia on the defensive in the first place with their "endless" personnel and equipment is all we really need to know. Its never not be hilarious how badly Putin has failed.
 
Morty_ said:
And nothing will pass in January either, thats my prediction, republicans simply don't want to give Ukraine any aid.
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Na man, republicans love killing Ruskis. Lindsey Grampa said it is best money US ever spent.
 
Raoul said:
Wouldn’t be surprised to learn there’s some degree of Russian involvement in his candidacy. Putin tried with Tara Reid last time, and is massively incentivized to try again.
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Right, cuz everyone who’s against funding the war in Ukraine must be a Putin puppet, even if their father happened to be Bobby Kennedy and their uncle was JFK.
 
ExoduS said:
Na man, republicans love killing Ruskis. Lindsey Grampa said it is best money US ever spent.
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Lindsey and Mitch are a dying breed, MAGA-republicans dont feel the same way.
 
Morty_ said:
It's going to come and bite EU, cause Russia doesn't stop with Ukraine, they want a bigger piece of Europe than that.

At some point, there will be direct confrontation between Russia and NATO.
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Based on what exactly? Putin has been in power for 20+ years, they would have attacked Europe a hundred times by now if your assertion is even remotely accurate.
 
Suedesi said:
Based on what exactly? Putin has been in power for 20+ years, they would have attacked Europe a hundred times by now if your assertion is even remotely accurate.
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Based on the full-scale invasion of Ukraine?

Putin is getting close to the end of his time as leader/dictator, he doesnt care what happens next, he just want to be known for bringing back the Russian Empire.
 
ExoduS said:
There is always Nikki. She is ready to take it on China, Russia and Iran. Come on man, have some confidence.
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Yeah, but Trump will be the nominee anyway, unless disqualified somehow, pretty low chance of that happening.
 
Morty_ said:
An emboldened Russia could well be tempted into taking a piece of the Baltics, you think NATO, with its lack of comittment to Ukraine, would risk open war, possibly nuclear, over one of its smaller/lesser members? I'm not so sure they would.

At the minimum, they would take Moldova, and start trying to cause instability in Romania in some way.
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Yes, 100%
 
Suedesi said:
Right, cuz everyone who’s against funding the war in Ukraine must be a Putin puppet, even if their father happened to be Bobby Kennedy and their uncle was JFK.
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We've just been through a Presidential campaign with a full on Russian attempt to manipulate the outcome of the US election, so it shouldn't surprise anyone that Putin will continue trying. Even if Kennedy is not involved, his position on COVID and vaccines disqualifies him on being taken seriously on anything outside of his main focus of environmental issues.

Further, anyone who wants to cut off Ukraine funding is tacitly helping Putin, so I'll let you draw your own conclusions as to why.
 
Raoul said:
He needs to go through Ukraine first.
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Theoretically, someone with ambitions for a bigger piece of Europe wouldn’t have waited 20+ years to act on those ambitions. Just saying.

Putin bad and all that, but let’s not feed on the domino theory just yet
 
Raoul said:
We've just been through a Presidential campaign with a full on Russian attempt to manipulate the outcome of the US election, so it shouldn't surprise anyone that Putin will continue trying. Even if Kennedy is not involved, his position on COVID and vaccines disqualifies him on being taken seriously on anything outside of his main focus of environmental issues.

Further, anyone who wants to cut off Ukraine funding is tacitly helping Putin, so I'll let you draw your own conclusions as to why.
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I hear Soc Security and Medicare are projected to be insolvent in less than a decade - perhaps an end to the perpetual war machine and US playing international cop might not be such a terrible idea?

As for your other point, every country - ours included - tries to influence elections and governments of other countries, that’s not particularly newsworthy. Didn’t we overthrow the Ukrainian government in 2014 which made Mr. Putin very angry?
 
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