Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

A bit like the coaches say after matches, one side just seems to want it more.
 
Gehrman said:
How pathetic when the powerful west cannot at least consistently send aid to a prevent the 2nd largest country being annexed by Russisa.
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Russians are now annexing Canada or China? Not sure if you are talking about area or population.
 
Raoul said:
This is basically not far off from the original objective, which shows how delusional Putinists are.
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Give it another year of weakening western support, and it may no longer be that delusional.

I guess things like installing a Russia-friendly regime in Kyiv won't happen, but the rest of the objectives appear less and less crazy by the day.
 
Morty_ said:
Give it another year of weakening western support, and it may no longer be that delusional.
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It will always be delusional as Putin doesn't have the resources to make any meaningful gains. The name of the game for him is to not lose existing ground and hope Trump bails him out in 2025.
 
Raoul said:
It will always be delusional as Putin doesn't have the resources to make any meaningful gains. The name of the game for him is to not lose existing ground and hope Trump bails him out in 2025.
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Isn't Russia outproducing NATO(if we rule out the US) when it comes to ammunition, and by a significant amount?
 
Morty_ said:
Isn't Russia outproducing NATO(if we rule out the US) when it comes to ammunition, and by a significant amount?
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I'm sure Putin will keep manufacturing weapons to stay afloat in Ukraine. Ultimately, he knows that being perceived as a loser in Ukraine could mean the end of his own regime, so his only way out here is a frozen conflict, but the Ukrainians will never agree to that so the fighting will keep going until there's a winner.
 
Raoul said:
It will always be delusional as Putin doesn't have the resources to make any meaningful gains. The name of the game for him is to not lose existing ground and hope Trump bails him out in 2025.
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He'll still have more resources than Ukraine if Western support dries up. Kyiv will still likely be out of reach but frontlines may move back to Odesa & Kharkiv if Ukraine can't counter Russia's firepower.
 
VorZakone said:
He'll still have more resources than Ukraine if Western support dries up. Kyiv will still likely be out of reach but frontlines may move back to Odesa & Kharkiv if Ukraine can't counter Russia's firepower.
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That’s a hypothetical. Another is that his regime could eventually crumble from within because of sanctions. Neither are particularly likely. The likeliest scenario is we see another year of more of the same until Ukrainian air power comes online.
 
Air power, yes, Ukraine needs that, but perhaps more defensively?

Russia themselves has a lot of planes though , but they don't use their planes a whole lot offensively, largely cause the air defense of Ukraine is so good.

I assume Russia also has anti-air placed all over.
 
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Real Name said:
Reminds me of Croatian situation, I'm not sure about Navy capabilites (wouldn't be surprised if its in a similar state as Irish) but our air power consisted Mig 21s of which one or 2 were in function until recently when we bought used French Rafale planes.
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You didn't have some 29s?
 
Morty_ said:
Give it another year of weakening western support, and it may no longer be that delusional.

I guess things like installing a Russia-friendly regime in Kyiv won't happen, but the rest of the objectives appear less and less crazy by the day.
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I've been noticing quite gloomy tone on Ukraine these recent weeks, with lots of what ifs and might be's, if support slows or worst comes to pass.
But to think that they might accomplish those objectives, when they tried to do it initially with all their built up gear and basically, catching everyone off guard?
Take a look at Avdiika right now, how much are they losing there? War's been raging for almost 2 years now, how many more Avdiika type fortresses would they have to bypass to get to Khrakiv or Odesa?
I know they got lots of manpower, but let's be honest, it's not limitless. And even once the prisoner storm waves dry up, they are going to have problems asking a common man to run across killing fields.
 
2mufc0 said:
This is propaganda, makes no logical sense.
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It makes sense when you factor in how deep into the bowels of Russian society (ie freeing prisoners to fight) Putin has had to go to replenish battlefield losses. They are obviously going to conceal the true number, although we can safely presume it is far more than what the Russian government has admitted thus far - for obvious reasons to preserve domestic support for the war.
 
2mufc0 said:
This is propaganda, makes no logical sense.
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Including injured it's not that crazy
They were just throwing bodies at a relatively modern army with decent artillery for a long time. Coming up to 2 years of war and an absolutely humungous frontline.
 
tomaldinho1 said:
Including injured it's not that crazy
They were just throwing bodies at a relatively modern army with decent artillery for a long time. Coming up to 2 years of war and an absolutely humungous frontline.
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They don't call it the meat grinder for nothing.
 
Raoul said:
It makes sense when you factor in how deep into the bowels of Russian society (ie freeing prisoners to fight) Putin has had to go to replenish battlefield losses. They are obviously going to conceal the true number, although we can safely presume it is far more than what the Russian government has admitted thus far - for obvious reasons to preserve domestic support for the war.
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tomaldinho1 said:
Including injured it's not that crazy
They were just throwing bodies at a relatively modern army with decent artillery for a long time. Coming up to 2 years of war and an absolutely humungous frontline.
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The Russian operation would have collapsed if it lost almost 90% of it's army and Ukraine would have sent them packing. Any army would.
 
2mufc0 said:
The Russian operation would have collapsed if it lost almost 90% of it's army and Ukraine would have sent them packing. Any army would.
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Isn’t the whole point they’ve had many mobilisations since then + convicts + Wagner? It’s only saying the initial standing army at the start of the war.
 
tomaldinho1 said:
Isn’t the whole point they’ve had many mobilisations since then + convicts + Wagner? It’s only saying the initial standing army at the start of the war.
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I have no doubt scores of Russians have been killed but this 87% is fantasy, using one of Raoul's favourite punchlines 'for domestic consumption'.
 
2mufc0 said:
I have no doubt scores of Russians have been killed but this 87% is fantasy, using one of Raoul's favourite punchlines 'for domestic consumption'.
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To repeat isn’t it the number for all injuries as well. Hence why so high.
 
tomaldinho1 said:
To repeat isn’t it the number for all injuries as well. Hence why so high.
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An injured soldier who can't fight is pretty much good as dead for an army. I mean think about it, losing 87% professional soldiers and replacing them with criminals and civilians at such a fast rate without collapsing , it's highly unlikely.
 
2mufc0 said:
An injured soldier who can't fight is pretty much good as dead for an army. I mean think about it, losing 87% professional soldiers and replacing them with criminals and civilians at such a fast rate without collapsing , it's highly unlikely.
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They’ve had multiple mass mobilizations; something that wouldn’t be necessary unless a vast majority of their troops were killed or injured and not replacing them could result in losing the war, so we shouldn’t be surprised if the numbers are closer to accurate than not and Putin has been selling us wolf tickets all along.
 
Raoul said:
It makes sense when you factor in how deep into the bowels of Russian society (ie freeing prisoners to fight) Putin has had to go to replenish battlefield losses. They are obviously going to conceal the true number, although we can safely presume it is far more than what the Russian government has admitted thus far - for obvious reasons to preserve domestic support for the war.
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It makes zero sense. If it was the case, then Russia would've already crashed out of the war. You can't lose 87% of your fighting forces and 2/3 of your tanks while keeping on fighting in a meaningful manner on a front that large. That's an amount of casualties that can't be compensated for, no matter how much cannon fodder you throw in. Russia would've militarily collapsed.

Absurd claims for propaganda purposes (and help pushing for that financial envelope) rather than an objective reflection of the reality on the ground.
 
That_Bloke said:
It makes zero sense. If it was the case, then Russia would've already crashed out of the war. You can't lose 87% of your fighting forces and 2/3 of your tanks while keeping on fighting in a meaningful manner on a front that large. That's an amount of casualties that can't be compensated for, no matter how much cannon fodder you throw in. Russia would've militarily collapsed.

Absurd claims for propaganda purposes (and help pushing for that financial envelope) rather than an objective reflection of the reality on the ground.
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Thats why they’ve had multiple mass mobilizations. If they hasn’t lost a vast majority of their people, there wouldn’t have been a need to constantly replenish them.
 
Raoul said:
Thats why they’ve had multiple mass mobilizations. If they hasn’t lost a vast majority of their people, there wouldn’t have been a need to constantly replenish them.
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They've had heavy losses, that's absolutely a given, and why they partially mobilized and used prisoners but if it was in the numbers given by a totally not biased american source while Zelenskiy is in Washington right now, then the Ukrainians would be in Crimea by now. 90% is akin to the almost total destruction of your fighting forces. Cannon fodder will never replace trained professional soldiers and if you lose 90% of the latter you simply lose the ability to mount coordinated military operations in any meaningful sense, you collapse and ultimately sue for peace. You're done. That's my opinion anyway.

War propaganda is always about minimizing your own losses and exaggerating the enemy's. I'm all for helping Ukraine and stand on their side but I'm not willing to give into this blind cheerleading and believing numbers coming right from Disneyland.
 
That_Bloke said:
Cannon fodder will never replace trained professional soldiers and if you lose 90% of the latter
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As others have tried to point out, the number does not claim to be from their main trained forces. Obviously a large part of their casualties are from the soldiers drafted later.
 
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