Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

The United said:
Obviously, the Russians are not getting the same amount from the likes of NK, but they still have a massive amount of equipment in a lot of areas, including manpower. Denying that and keeping saying that the Russians will run out of it would not make it true in reality. Prisoners did play a huge part in taking the Bakhmut if you remember.

And about kicking the Russians out of their lands, the map from the NYT actually puts things in a bit of perspective. "When both sides’ gains are added up, Russia now controls 188 square miles more territory in Ukraine compared with the start of the year." "Less territory changed hands in August than in any other month of the war, according to a New York Times analysis of data from the Institute for the Study of War. While Ukraine made small gains in the south, Russia took slightly more land overall, mostly in the northeast."

For comparison, the UKR summer/fall offensive last year gained about 200 square miles in about one week in early October...

UKR received 'big' support for this counterattack. But the result on the battle field is far from ideal, even against 'prisoners' who don't know what they are doing. Imagine for one second that if that 'big' support drops off just a little bit.
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If land is the only thing you will take as evidence then sure, but the fact they appear to be opening up the southern ports and threatening Crimea is certainly a positive. If they can get closer to surrounding Crimea, put pressure on the Kerch bridge, keep taking out Russian naval and air defence targets, then they could take Crimea relatively quickly in principle. It's slow progress to get in a position to really turn the screw but once they are in position it could all go a lot faster.

Another metric to consider would be dead Russian soldiers and the effect on Russia's economy. Given how much they've had to bump their military budgets this year it suggests it's not going terribly well for them.
 
TwoSheds said:
If land is the only thing you will take as evidence then sure, but the fact they appear to be opening up the southern ports and threatening Crimea is certainly a positive. If they can get closer to surrounding Crimea, put pressure on the Kerch bridge, keep taking out Russian naval and air defence targets, then they could take Crimea relatively quickly in principle. It's slow progress to get in a position to really turn the screw but once they are in position it could all go a lot faster.

Another metric to consider would be dead Russian soldiers and the effect on Russia's economy. Given how much they've had to bump their military budgets this year it suggests it's not going terribly well for them.
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Yes it definitely helps to divide what's ongoing in different zones. Then we get:
- a tie in the North-East (Bakhmut/Avdiivka) with slight advantages for Russia
- a tie in the South-East with slight advantages for Ukraine (Robotyne) and potential to evolve positively (Dnipro bridgehead)
- a strategic win in the Black Sea for Ukraine (increasingly crippled the Russian fleet and drove some of them out of Sevastopol to Novorossyisk)
 
stefan92 said:
Yes it definitely helps to divide what's ongoing in different zones. Then we get:
- a tie in the North-East (Bakhmut/Avdiivka) with slight advantages for Russia
- a tie in the South-East with slight advantages for Ukraine (Robotyne) and potential to evolve positively (Dnipro bridgehead)
- a strategic win in the Black Sea for Ukraine (increasingly crippled the Russian fleet and drove some of them out of Sevastopol to Novorossyisk)
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Agree. And to build on this, land won in the Donbas is worth a lot less militarily than land won in the south.
 
VorZakone said:
Who is the Ukrainian ex-politician?
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The guy who said this back in 2019, when many of those who are now in the Ukrainian government (Shmyal, Podolyak, even Zelenskiy) accused him of spreading fear-mongering hysteria:




He's recently been giving pessimistic assessments of Ukraine's prospects, so naturally he's now a clueless dolt all over again.
 
DT12 said:
The guy who said this back in 2019, when many of those who are now in the Ukrainian government (Shmyal, Podolyak, even Zelenskiy) accused him of spreading fear-mongering hysteria:




He's recently been giving pessimistic assessments of Ukraine's prospects, so naturally he's now a clueless dolt all over again.
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A bit like you then. Still think Russia will prosper and the west will fail?
 
massi83 said:
A bit like you then. Still think Russia will prosper and the west will fail?
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I've never said Russia will prosper and the West will fail. I've said that Ukraine will not win this war as they've defined victory. For saying this I and others were attacked and mocked (including by PM by you, fascinating how you self-styled defenders of democracy always resort to aggression and insults when faced with an opinion you don't like). Thus, anyone with an interest in rational discussion largely abandoned this thread over a year ago, leaving it to the same 3 or 4 people to spam it up with endless delusion from the likes of Ben Hodges, Ilya Ponoromenko and Kiev Independent.
 
DT12 said:
I've never said Russia will prosper and the West will fail. I've said that Ukraine will not win this war as they've defined victory. For saying this I and others were attacked and mocked (including by PM by you, fascinating how you self-styled defenders of democracy always resort to aggression and insults when faced with an opinion you don't like). Thus, anyone with an interest in rational discussion largely abandoned this thread over a year ago, leaving it to the same 3 or 4 people to spam it up with endless delusion from the likes of Ben Hodges, Ilya Ponoromenko and Kiev Independent.
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Rational discussion being a relative term of course. One could argue with significant credibility that the Ukrainians are far closer to kicking the Russians out than the Russians are in taking over all of Ukraine. If you look at a pre-2022 compared to today, beyond the landbridge to Crimea and a couple of southern Ukrainian cities in largely agrarian areas, there's nothing the Russians have gained outside of Donbas.
 
Raoul said:
Should last a few weeks at least.

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About 2-3 months at 15.000 shells a day

Also north korea can send more

Meanwhile the whole europe cant supply even remotely this quantity in months
 
4bars said:
About 2-3 months at 15.000 shells a day

Also north korea can send more

Meanwhile the whole europe cant supply even remotely this quantity in months
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Its not getting any better next year either, when Russia will massively increase its military budget, while big NATO nations raises theirs by a few percentages.

Though, i wonder how much North Korea is willing to sell, how much are they willing to get rid of before they start feeling unsafe, after all, NK is quite a paranoid state.
 
Morty_ said:
Its not getting any better next year either, when Russia will massively increase its military budget, while big NATO nations raises theirs by a few percentages.

Though, i wonder how much North Korea is willing to sell, how much are they willing to get rid of before they start feeling unsafe, after all, NK is quite a paranoid state.
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Unfortunately NK is likely to be willing to sell a lot. They accumulated the shells over decades to assure SK that they could destroy it - kind of a baby-MAD. As NK has nukes now, this has become less important
 
Are the once-vaunted Bayraktar drones losing their shine in Ukraine?
BRNO, Czech Republic — The Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones, which reportedly assisted Ukraine in military successes earlier in the war, are now of limited utility amid Russian forces bolstering their air defenses, according to a Ukrainian military official.

“For the TB2, I don’t want to use the word useless, but it is hard to find situations where to use them,” Valiukh said at the GSOF Symposium here on Oct. 26.
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https://www.defensenews.com/global/...yraktar-drones-losing-their-shine-in-ukraine/
 
stefan92 said:
Unfortunately NK is likely to be willing to sell a lot. They accumulated the shells over decades to assure SK that they could destroy it - kind of a baby-MAD. As NK has nukes now, this has become less important
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And anyway, even if the nukes part is not true, You only need a full round of all their artillery battery during a day to destroy significantly Seoul. Enough deterrence.
 
Raoul said:
This would only become a factor if the US and Europe stop supporting the Ukrainians. They've received ATACMS and Ukrainian pilots are getting F-16s soon (they are training in the US now), so for all the talk of stalling the counteroffensive, what has actually stalled is Russia's attempt to make new advances.
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I read all that with a grain of salt, sounds like fairy tales at this point.

This war is being fought with conventional weapons, and Russia has the upper hand. US was never in it for the long haul.

 
Suedesi said:
I read all that with a grain of salt, sounds like fairy tales at this point.

This war is being fought with conventional weapons, and Russia has the upper hand. US was never in it for the long haul.

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Russia hasn’t had the upper hand since the 2nd or 3rd month of what is now the 20th month of the war. The only person it’s over for is Putin, since he can’t achieve his objective of taking over all of Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians, who most thought would flee, have rebuffed what many believed 20 months ago was the 2nd or 3rd best military in the world.
 
Raoul said:
Russia hasn’t had the upper hand since the 2nd or 3rd month of what is now the 20th month of the war. The only person it’s over for is Putin, since he can’t achieve his objective of taking over all of Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians, who most thought would flee, have rebuffed what many believed 20 months ago was the 2nd or 3rd best military in the world.
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Exactly this.

How does Russia have the upper hand while controlling less territory than in the 3rd month of the war?

How are ATACMS, Bayraktar, drones, etc. conventional weapons?

The war is still going on, with movements at a glacier (glazier?) pace but still in Ukraine's favour. Odessa is slowly but surely getting back to normal. Sebastopol isn't. Traffic on Kerch bridge as well as sea transport has been suspended. The fact that the UA isn't advancing at the same pace as last year it doesn't mean they're losing. It just means that advancing gets more difficult as the RA adapts to the new scenario.

Sadly the middle East crisis have taken a lot of focus from this conflict. But that won't be for long.
 
Russia might not have the upper hand, but it seems that they might have advantage on the grind tactics as they have more personnel. Hopefully Ukraine can break the stalemate. Also Putin is banking on US 2024 elections
 
Quelle surprise.

Criminals and sanctions-busters exploiting UK secrecy loophole

An offshore firm helped create companies used by members of Vladimir Putin's inner circle, including one hiding the late mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin's yacht, the BBC can reveal.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67276289
 
Just seen footage of a suicide drone about to take off. Just as it takes off a little field mouse jumps on it and stays on for the whole journey! Another brave soul lost in the fight.
 
In 5-10 years these kids will march on western europe on the order of the moscow’s regime and if Ukraine is left alone in limbo state again and won’t be admitted to NATO / EU and losses this war the regime in russia will have millions of Ukrainian men added to their meat assault squads. Basically, everyone in Europe should start preparing for a big war unless we make sure that Ukraine prevails and joins EU / NATO.

 
nimic said:
Sorry, but this is ridiculous. Russia is obviously not going to go to war with NATO in the near future. It's already important enough for the west to support Ukraine - this hyperbole serves no purpose.
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We might have US-less NATO in the near future given the political processes in the country, it’s not an unlikely scenario. NATO without the full US backing will be tested for sure by the regime in moscow at some point if Ukraine loses, no doubt about that. Imagine occupied Ukraine /Belarus with Hungary falling completely into the Kremlin hands, you also have allied Serbs. The picture will look very bleak for Europe. Russia is now investing and will be (for foreseeable future) into the military production on war time terms, while Europe refuses to up its game when it comes to military production, it has been almost 2 years of active hot war in Europe and we’re still incapable of delivering more than a few thousand shells per month in total in something as basic as artillery shells.

 
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