Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Morty_ said:
Nukes don't enter into it, you don't think Europe have more than enough nukes to level every major city in Russia on their own?

"More nukes" above a certain point really doesn't matter.
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They wouldn't do anything if Putin attacked Ukraine, especially without the US's top cover, which wouldn't be there if Trump was President.
 
Raoul said:
Yes, the Ukrainians are slowly chipping away at various points in southern Zap en route to Melitopol and Berdiansk, which would effectively cut off most of the Russian land bridge to Crimea.

There are a few maps from last month further down the page.

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2023/09/world/ukraine-war-counteroffensive-maps-guide-dg/
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But the problem is that Ukraine hasn't made any progress towards Tokmak(Let alone Melitopol) for weeks, so what are they chipping away at?

Mud season arrives soon, and then Russia just gets to build up further fortifications for months, and that will be that, for a good while.

I think we have to be honest with ourselves that this offensive didn't accomplish remotely what it was set out to do.
 
Raoul said:
They wouldn't do anything if Putin attacked Ukraine, especially without the US's top cover, which wouldn't be there if Trump was President.
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Most countries in Europe are ramping up their military spending as a result(looks like Slovakia just decided to suck off Putin for some reason though), what happened 1,5 years ago is not representative of what will happen in the future.

I think NATO, even without the US, are more than capable of outproducing Russia in this conflict.

My worry is that other countries will do what Slovakia just did though, vote in pro-Putin politicians, as seems to be popular right now, even if it makes no sense at all.
 
Morty_ said:
But the problem is that Ukraine hasn't made any progress towards Tokmak(Let alone Melitopol) for weeks, so what are they chipping away at?

Mud season arrives soon, and then Russia just gets to build up further fortifications for months, and that will be that, for a good while.

I think we have to be honest with ourselves that this offensive didn't accomplish remotely what it was set out to do.
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They have multiple fronts going on at the same time which makes for slow going. With that said, they are only 100km away from a major victory in reclaiming Melitopol, which could be a massive turning point in the war in that it would cut off all Russians in southern Kherson and force them back into Crimea. At that point we will more or less be in a situation where Russian land gains would barely be more than what they were before they invaded.
 
The US has given Ukraine more than many of us thought was possible. I think we need to hear more about what we're getting for our money.

The military industrial complex seems to view the price as cheap to destroy this much of Russia's war equipment. We already see results in their inability to assist Armenia. For a tiny percent of our yearly military budget.

Liberals here are so bad at messaging.
 
Beans said:
The US has given Ukraine more than many of us thought was possible. I think we need to hear more about what we're getting for our money.

The military industrial complex seems to view the price as cheap to destroy this much of Russia's war equipment. We already see results in their inability to assist Armenia. For a tiny percent of our yearly military budget.

Liberals here are so bad at messaging.
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Its not the military industrial complex - its actual US defense policy to deter Russian aggression. So when some ask "what are we getting for our money", the obvious answer is one of the best investments in the history of the country - donating weapons to a third party who have exposed the Russian military as being incompetent, eroded Putin's global legitimacy, and precipitated an internal revolt to remove him from power - all without a single drop of American blood being spilled in the process in terms of official boots on the ground. Its impossible to get a better return on a military investment than that.
 
Morty_ said:
But the problem is that Ukraine hasn't made any progress towards Tokmak(Let alone Melitopol) for weeks, so what are they chipping away at?

Mud season arrives soon, and then Russia just gets to build up further fortifications for months, and that will be that, for a good while.

I think we have to be honest with ourselves that this offensive didn't accomplish remotely what it was set out to do.
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My favorite argument in this thread was that having more soldiers does not mean anything because the UKR will have more advanced weapons and training from NATO. I was hoping it would be true as well. Yet, the number will be a deciding factor in this war. You can bet that the number of losses from UKR would be very high for capturing those empty villages, with probably 10 destroyed houses there while progressing about 1km per month sometimes. At some point, people (including from the UKR) have to wonder if it is worth losing so many people for so little, and that would be Putin's bet as well. It is very grim for UKR and what they want to achieve.
 
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Raoul said:
Its not the military industrial complex - its actual US defense policy to deter Russian aggression. So when some ask "what are we getting for our money", the obvious answer is one of the best investments in the history of the country - donating weapons to a third party who have exposed the Russian military as being incompetent, eroded Putin's global legitimacy, and precipitated an internal revolt to remove him from power - all without a single drop of American blood being spilled in the process in terms of official boots on the ground. Its impossible to get a better return on a military investment than that.
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I am not exactly sure how true those facts are. Yeah, the West exposed them a lot, but on the other hand, the global South, including China, has been closer to the RA, challenging the West more and more openly. And Putin will use more money to rebuild his army, and they could be more competent than before later on. Not to mention, China would gain a lot of information from this war to prepare its own forces. The global South enjoying cheap oil and gas would not give a dam about how Putin is, and many of the emerging economic powers are probably from there. You could even say Putin is winning some of the geopolitics there and in some parts of Africa.

Saying not dropping a single drop of American blood and it being a good investment sounds really selfish and lacks empathy, though, if it gets said out loud. Of course, I don't mean we should not support the UKR. But your takes on those issues are just too one-sided and not exactly clear advantages for the West.
 
The United said:
I am not exactly sure how true those facts are. Yeah, the West exposed them a lot, but on the other hand, the global South, including China, has been closer to the RA, challenging the West more and more openly. And Putin will use more money to rebuild his army, and they could be more competent than before later on. Not to mention, China would gain a lot of information from this war to prepare its own forces. The global South enjoying cheap oil and gas would not give a dam about how Putin is, and many of the emerging economic powers are probably from there. You could even say Putin is winning some of the geopolitics there and in some parts of Africa.

Saying not dropping a single drop of American blood and it being a good investment sounds really selfish and lacks empathy, though, if it gets said out loud. Of course, I don't mean we should not support the UKR. But your takes on those issues are just too one-sided and not exactly clear advantages for the West.
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It also happens to be true from a US perspective. The previous US defense policy was to deter Russia and China. Once the Russians flopped in Ukraine, the US actually delayed the release of their new defense policy to downgrade Russia and make it largely all about China going forward. Therefore, the investment to erode Russia as a global power has been incredibly successful by taking a major adversary out of the global equation, where we are now headed back into a traditional bipolar world (this time involving the Chinese).
 
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Raoul said:
Its not the military industrial complex - its actual US defense policy to deter Russian aggression. So when some ask "what are we getting for our money", the obvious answer is one of the best investments in the history of the country - donating weapons to a third party who have exposed the Russian military as being incompetent, eroded Putin's global legitimacy, and precipitated an internal revolt to remove him from power - all without a single drop of American blood being spilled in the process in terms of official boots on the ground. Its impossible to get a better return on a military investment than that.
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I simply meant the people in the military industrial complex, including the military, get the efficacy of supporting Ukraine. These people tend to be conservative but they're with the democrats here.
 
Morty_ said:
My worry is that other countries will do what Slovakia just did though, vote in pro-Putin politicians, as seems to be popular right now, even if it makes no sense at all.
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I've heard normal voters who don't give two fecks about putin or russia complaining the government is sending help to ukraine while we have hundreds of thousands of students with no teachers to start the school year, waiting lists at hospitals are ridiculously high, the vast majority of young people struggle to even rent a room in a big city, 20% of the population is living in the line of poverty, etc.

If current "nato governments" fail to answer the needs of their people they can't expect them to keep voting for them.

People like to disconnect these things and say complaining about help to ukraine if following moscow's talking points, but it's just normal human behavior.
 
maniak said:
I've heard normal voters who don't give two fecks about putin or russia complaining the government is sending help to ukraine while we have hundreds of thousands of students with no teachers to start the school year, waiting lists at hospitals are ridiculously high, the vast majority of young people struggle to even rent a room in a big city, 20% of the population is living in the line of poverty, etc.

If current "nato governments" fail to answer the needs of their people they can't expect them to keep voting for them.

People like to disconnect these things and say complaining about help to ukraine if following moscow's talking points, but it's just normal human behavior.
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Which again, makes little sense.

NATO-countries are not exactly bankrupting themselves on Ukraine, they are not even spending that much compared to GDP.

The money that goes to Ukraine isn't going to save the healthcare or education system, that would simply be misinformation.
 
Morty_ said:
Which again, makes little sense.

NATO-countries are not exactly bankrupting themselves on Ukraine, they are not even spending that much compared to GDP.

The money that goes to Ukraine isn't going to save the healthcare or education system, that would simply be misinformation.
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I know, but that's not the perception many people will have, and that will cost current government elections.

Our current trumpist party is already banking on it, showing ukrainians being given places to live in portugal and also showing portuguese families living in tents because they can't afford housing.

The two thing are not connected, but the optics are terrible and it will give votes to these parties at the expense of "normal" parties.
 
maniak said:
I know, but that's not the perception many people will have, and that will cost current government elections.

Our current trumpist party is already banking on it, showing ukrainians being given places to live in portugal and also showing portuguese families living in tents because they can't afford housing.

The two thing are not connected, but the optics are terrible and it will give votes to these parties at the expense of "normal" parties.
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At some point you just got to blame the people for falling for obvious BS though.

Different case, but, take Brexit, i don't blame "remain" nearly as much as i blame the opposition for being idiots, they even had a chance to correct it but didn't, oh well.
 
Raoul said:
I'd love to know how he drifted towards right wing politics given he was quite different a decade ago. But that's for the Brand thread.
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Once he started on Youtube full-time it was inevitable. It's the road to take for easy subscribers and views apparently.
 
When it comes to the Ukrainians, “there are some honest conversations happening behind the scenes,” a U.S. official familiar with Ukraine policy said. Like others, the person was granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue.
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Morty_ said:
At some point you just got to blame the people for falling for obvious BS though.

Different case, but, take Brexit, i don't blame "remain" nearly as much as i blame the opposition for being idiots, they even had a chance to correct it but didn't, oh well.
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Problem is, being duped or not, they also vote. Governments must deal with this.
 
Morty_ said:
Which again, makes little sense.

NATO-countries are not exactly bankrupting themselves on Ukraine, they are not even spending that much compared to GDP.

The money that goes to Ukraine isn't going to save the healthcare or education system, that would simply be misinformation.
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I mean, people not seeing the long-term picture and generally being selfish is shocking, right? That's why the likes of Putin and Xi have been doing what's best for their country for the long term, without all this stupid stuff like voting and democracy, because what would the average citizen know?

At least that's what they said in those countries, including mine.
 
I'm sceptical about "no concessions" regarding Crimea but we'll see.

 
VorZakone said:
Popular current narrative is that Russia is "losing" or has "lost" the war from a strategic viewpoint.

Personally, I think the situation remains rather dire for Ukraine nevertheless. Putin will continue the war and the Russian military is far from defeated yet. So I don't see a scenario in which Ukraine defeats Russia on the battleground. Not without both countries going absolutely all the way, risking major economic/demographic collapse while losing millions of men.

There is this weird notion on Reddit sometimes of Russia being just on the brink of collapsing. It's just not true. There are, depending on your source, about 200,000 to 400,000 Russian troops still present in Ukraine and they can throw in more if they want. The usual arguments about "logistical problems" and such may be valid but Ukrainians are still getting killed everyday so evidently Russia is arming its troops. If you think there'll be a moment in the short term where the Russians will be without weapons or ammo, I got a bridge to sell you.

With all that being said, we should keep supporting Ukraine. But unless we increase both the pace and amount of aid we deliver, this will remain a grinding attrition war that could last a couple of years more. And Putin will be all to happy to turn this into a frozen conflict and keep Ukraine unstable, scare investors away from Ukraine, and destroy hopes of Ukraine joining EU or NATO.

I hope I'm wrong but sadly it seems Ukraine would need a miracle for this war to end quick, like Putin getting overthrown or dying from natural causes and his successor blaming it all on Putin and withdrawing.
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I agree people need to give up the notion of Russia possibly collapsing, I think that's a hangover from Ukraine's large territorial gains last year and casual observers thinking its still a possibility again. I don't see that opinion being widespread, though I don't spend much time on the reddit subs. Also, people do need to snap out of the idea of this ending any time soon. Humans are impatient, its only natural, checking for Ukraine updates in 4 month increments is probably the way to go. Personally I don't see that much urgency on Ukraine's side, its just about getting the job done at minimal cost and the only cost that matters is Ukrainian lives. Of course there's a cost of delay, the people suffering in occupied territories, and there's a cost of action. Only the Ukraine leadership can weigh those scales.

Having said that, Ukraine is clearly winning from a strategic viewpoint and I don't see much debate in it. They have made enormous gains this year and will continue to do so. People just looking at territorial changes are completely missing what a strategic view actually is.

When was the last time we heard about Russia's massive artillery advantage? Numbers of around 7-1 used to be the norm of what we'd hear from focal points on the front lines. I'm not sure when that ended, but you hear more nowadays about Russian troops' complaining about lack of ammo. Sure Russian isn't ever "running out of ammo", but lets not pretend they are ever getting that advantage back. Ukraine's own ammunition production and commitments from the EU and elsewhere only continue to grow.

Russia's ballistic missile capability has greatly diminished, both in depleted stocks and Ukraine's defence against them. At the same time Ukraine has gained its own ballistic missile and long range drone capability, a huge swing in Ukraine's favour.

All the other equipment that continues to flow in, Abrams and challengers might get the headlines, but they are minor compared to the hundreds of other tanks and vehicles delivered from various countries. Not to mention the F-16's... Ukraine soon gets a much needed replenishment of its air force, with something that can pretty much use any weapon in the NATO arsenal.

Ukraine has pretty much won the Naval war... Ridiculous. Have some people missed this event? Vital for opening Crimea up to attack, which they have effectively demonstrated, and preventing naval supply if/when the land bridge is cut.

If Russian has actually gained a strategic advantage in any area the last 6 months, please enlighten me, there must be something. The information war maybe...

Almost forgot about the mutiny... Anyone who thinks Russian politics is stable can go bridge shopping too. Oh and their economy, Putin's own budget might just do more damage than any sanction scheme could.
 
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VorZakone said:
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Feels like this has been going on for a long time now. Just look at Elon Musk and all the shit he is spreading to sow discord, along with the likes of a Marjorie and Donald. And it seems to work on a certain contingent of people. Seems like there is a serious groundswell of anti Ukranian sentiment growing in Europe as well.
 
VorZakone said:
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Well that’s been obvious for months. What isn’t obvious are the many well thought of steps undertaken to stop this. Where are they?

This is what pisses me of. And it’s not just about Ukraine. Every three year old who once pooped on their parents sociology book understands what’s been happening for years. But as I understand it, no bigger government is doing anything to stop the spread of misinformation via the internet. It’s just complaining here and there and otherwise it’s business as usual. The whole political landscape worldwide is under attack and nobody seems to think it’s their job to do something about it.
 
Redplane said:
Feels like this has been going on for a long time now. Just look at Elon Musk and all the shit he is spreading to sow discord, along with the likes of a Marjorie and Donald. And it seems to work on a certain contingent of people. Seems like there is a serious groundswell of anti Ukranian sentiment growing in Europe as well.
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At least a decade really.
 
The Ukrainians have also started to use Artificial Intelligence (AI) to scan large amounts of imagery and so identify objects with specific forms, such as rectangular features with specific width and length ratios, so revealing Russian trucks and tanks for targeting.

Once the leaves fall and the ground is covered with a thin layer of snow, with mud that cuts through the snow, anyone walking or driving a tracked vehicle will be detected by AI. What will it do? Properly designed AI will browse enormous amounts of imagery and find objects within the images, or changes revealing activity or the lack of it.
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https://cepa.org/article/ukraines-war-of-the-treelines/
 
Are there any parallels to the Russian/Afghan war?
Russia didn’t really lose that one iirc, just got worn down from the casualty rate and probably more importantly for them, the cost of it.
Different stakes here alright though.

So, how long till Russia goes broke?
Is that what the west wants?
And then what - a power vacuum in Russia? That may not suit the west.
 
utdalltheway said:
Are there any parallels hto the Russian/Afghan war?
Russia didn’t really lose that one iirc, just got worn down from the casualty rate and probably more importantly for them, the cost of it.
Different stakes here alright though.

So, how long till Russia goes broke?
Is that what the west wants?
And then what - a power vacuum in Russia? That may not suit the west.
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The Soviet Union was a stronger power than Russia and the Mujahideen weren't as equipped as the Ukrainians. The casualties that Russia is taking in Ukraine are far greater than the Soviets in Afghanistan.

The Afghan war took a big toll on Soviet economy if I recall correctly. The same is expected to happen to Russia but we're not there yet.
 
utdalltheway said:
So, how long till Russia goes broke?
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That's the question everyone is asking. They've saved a ton of foreign currency over the years selling gas and oil to Europe and especially Germany. It will take some time to deplete them, although if reports are true and Putin plans to use every third ruble on his war machine next year, they could collapse faster. They have also many Oligarchs and other CEOs Putin can bleed. Some of them fell out of the window last year.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspicious_deaths_of_Russian_businesspeople_(2022–2023)

But this could also be dangerous for Putin. If he kills too many, the others might start leaving the country and then he is truly finished.
 
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