Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Krakenzero said:
It's funny how absolutely every take supporting the proxy war, NATO expansion, Russia's hand forced etc. basically denies any agency from ukranian people, particularly in the last 10 years. Particularly weird specially considering they are -understandably- united against the invasion, supporting their president and rejecting any outcome other than a victory that secures their territories and independence from the invader. More than any other country willing to negotiate, including -of course- the US.

One would think that people supporting this kind of theories would have, I don't know, adjusted their opinions and beliefs in the last 18 months. I know I have; not that I supported this, but before the war I honestly thought the public opinion in Ukraine was more divided towards the russians and that that would eventually be their army's doom. Luckily I was wrong then.
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I don’t think this war was inevitable. There are no fundamental territorial or ethnic conflicts between Russia and Ukraine that are so significant that they would inevitably have led to war. This isn’t a fight over resources, either. That is why this war was avoidable and a negotiated solution was achievable.

Once the war kicks on then the calculus changes, positions harden and diplomatic solutions available before Feb 2022, are no longer on the table. I don't think a neutral Ukraine is a realistic option, simply because this would no longer be accepted by a large majority of the population in Ukraine.
 
Suedesi said:
I don’t think this war was inevitable. There are no fundamental territorial or ethnic conflicts between Russia and Ukraine that are so significant that they would inevitably have led to war. This isn’t a fight over resources, either. That is why this war was avoidable and a negotiated solution was achievable.

Once the war kicks on then the calculus changes, positions harden and diplomatic solutions available before Feb 2022, are no longer on the table. I don't think a neutral Ukraine is a realistic option, simply because this would no longer be accepted by a large majority of the population in Ukraine.
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What do you think Ukraine should concede in a diplomatic deal with Russia?

Donbas & Crimea? Do you believe Russia would be willing to leave Kherson & Zaporizhia regions?
 
Suedesi said:
I don’t think this war was inevitable. There are no fundamental territorial or ethnic conflicts between Russia and Ukraine that are so significant that they would inevitably have led to war. This isn’t a fight over resources, either.
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Except it is. Various ore deposits and natural gas in Donbas and the Black Sea would have allowed Ukraine to further focus on the West and even (partially) replace Russia as a source for resources for the EU. This definitely was a danger for Russias geopolitical influence and income sources. So exactly those areas they are holding on to while retreating from the in that sense boring area in northern Ukraine around Kyiv.

And the existence of Ukraine itself is a problem for Russian nationalism, as Ukraine is the historic heart of Russia. Not incorporating it into Russia is a failure for them. And in that sense there is an ethnic conflict. Russian nationalists usually wouldn't oppose if an Ukrainian claims to be Russian and there would be no ethnic problem, but if they claim to be Ukrainian then they claim Russia to be smaller than the Russians would like to be.
 
TwoSheds said:
Funny how all the original thinkers think the same thing though...I think your take is actually quite interesting and worthy by the way, just thoroughly wrong. Russia invading Ukraine isn't a US conspiracy, it's a Russian conspiracy. Obviously there will have been some meddling over the years in Ukrainian politics, largely from Russia of course, but that doesn't mean none of their decisions are there own.
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I think Putin's original goal wasn't to invade the country or take territory - apart from Crimea which Russia already controlled. I think Putin's goal was to restore Moscow's total control over Kyiv - and of course that meant replacing Zelenskyy with a Russian puppet government. After this war, that's not an attainable option because there won't be a pro-Russian government in Kyiv without Ukrainians rising up in the streets. Putin's war goals have probably shifted to - how can I get out of this war while still claiming victory. He will try to hold on to some territory which he can sell domestically as a victory. Maybe try to get political concessions. But he's lost influence over Kyiv forever, and Ukraine's neutrality is not an option.

I also think there is no consensus at all in the West about the goal of the war. I suppose Ukraine shouldn't lose is the broad goal but what that actually means in economic, political and military terms no one seems to agree. Even Biden, Milley and Lloyd Austin seem to diverge, let alone the various European / NATO countries.

Anyways - my sad prediction is that this will last a few more years which is horrific.
 
are we effectively in WWIII?

Often termed as the war between Ukraine and Russia but so many countries appear to be involved. Just reading a few pages in this thread alone and there is apparent influence from Britain, France, Germany. US, China, North Korea, India, UAE
 
VorZakone said:
What do you think Ukraine should concede in a diplomatic deal with Russia?

Donbas & Crimea? Do you believe Russia would be willing to leave Kherson & Zaporizhia regions?
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This is a weird question. You're asking me to imagine the most simplistic, barebones trade-offs, but actual negotiations are messy complex, specific and involve creativity, choreography, third party roles etc

Here's a better article regarding a potential end to the Russian war in Ukraine is worth reading.
 
Suedesi said:
https://x.com/DecampDave/status/1697021062486057308?s=20

Proxy war: Ukrainian lives do not matter
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An American politician in an op-ed in an American newspaper, speaking to the American voters, makes the point that Americans aren't being killed. Not really a big shock, is it?

Also, weird how these parts didn't make into the tweet. I'm sure you read the full thing before concluding "Ukrainian lives do not matter", though.

Through 18 months of brutal bleeding and death on the battlefield, he has sustained resolve and resilience — in himself and his beloved people.

[...]

What Zelenskyy needs to repel Putin and stop his atrocities is the same brand of resolve and resilience from America and our allies.

[...]

Ukraine also needs support for free and fair elections no later than mid-2024.

[...]

Drones now made in Russia and used to brutalize Ukrainian civilians and troops could not be manufactured without parts and components from unscrupulous companies evading sanctions. A crackdown on such violations is long overdue.

[...]

As the three of us laid flowers against the wall of heroes, images of the fallen in St. Michael’s Square, we were reminded of the devastating costs of war — and of freedom.
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Who let Tucker Carlson in this thread?

Love the 'I'm against the war' stuff from this camp.

Poor Russia, they just want peace while invading Ukraine and evil Ukrainians wont hear about it, they just want to wage war instead of just giving up and make peace.
 
Real Name said:
Who let Tucker Carlson in this thread?

Love the 'I'm against the war' stuff from this camp.

Poor Russia, they just want peace while invading Ukraine and evil Ukrainians wont hear about it, they just want to wage war instead of just giving up and make peace.
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I also love the "let's end the suffering of Ukrainians" argument. These guys are so transparant in that they want Ukraine to just shut up and give up.

As if the Ukrainians don't realize how hard the war is on them. They themselves make the choice to fight back, we didn't make that choice for them. Ukrainians know very well the sacrifices they're making to hold off Russia.
 
Let's see for how long Russia can keep their planes in the sky. The aviation sector is probably the most difficult to circumvent the sanctions.
 
Real Name said:
Who let Tucker Carlson in this thread?

Love the 'I'm against the war' stuff from this camp.

Poor Russia, they just want peace while invading Ukraine and evil Ukrainians wont hear about it, they just want to wage war instead of just giving up and make peace.
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Yeah they all spout Russian propaganda and their solution almost always seems to be just let Russia win.

Strange that.
 
Ragnar123 said:
Let's see for how long Russia can keep their planes in the sky. The aviation sector is probably the most difficult to circumvent the sanctions.
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Great stuff by the pilots and a testament to the a320's undercarriage. I absolutely hope for a decisive Ukranian win but the prospect of flying sanctioned airliners without spare parts must be worrying for the general civil population (not that I disapprove of the sanctions).
 
stevoc said:
Yeah they all spout Russian propaganda and their solution almost always seems to be just let Russia win.

Strange that.
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I'm glad I have him on ignore. From time to time, if a new Russian propaganda parrot appears and starts talking about "peace", send him Meloni's speech. She absolutely nailed it in my opinion. I'm sorry for the music, but I didn't find another video.
 
Ragnar123 said:
I'm glad I have him on ignore. From time to time, if a new Russian propaganda parrot appears and starts talking about "peace", send him Meloni's speech. She absolutely nailed it in my opinion. I'm sorry for the music, but I didn't find another video.
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:confused:


I'm confused, she suddenly has a problem with addressing complex issues with slogans? I had been under the impression that was her own forte...
 
Abizzz said:
I'm confused, she suddenly has a problem with addressing complex issues with slogans? I had been under the impression that was her own forte...
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I don't care about her other politics, especially in this thread, but she absolutely nailed it in explaining who those "pacifists" really are.
 
Suedesi said:
I don’t think this war was inevitable. There are no fundamental territorial or ethnic conflicts between Russia and Ukraine that are so significant that they would inevitably have led to war. This isn’t a fight over resources, either. That is why this war was avoidable and a negotiated solution was achievable.

Once the war kicks on then the calculus changes, positions harden and diplomatic solutions available before Feb 2022, are no longer on the table. I don't think a neutral Ukraine is a realistic option, simply because this would no longer be accepted by a large majority of the population in Ukraine.
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This war can be ended tomorrow. Russia just needs to give back Crimea and the Eastern territories they are occupying.

That‘s what it is going to take.
 
Suedesi said:
I don’t think this war was inevitable. There are no fundamental territorial or ethnic conflicts between Russia and Ukraine that are so significant that they would inevitably have led to war. This isn’t a fight over resources, either. That is why this war was avoidable and a negotiated solution was achievable.

Once the war kicks on then the calculus changes, positions harden and diplomatic solutions available before Feb 2022, are no longer on the table. I don't think a neutral Ukraine is a realistic option, simply because this would no longer be accepted by a large majority of the population in Ukraine.
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Every war is avoidable before it occurs. What made this one inevitable was Russia's inability to respect the self determination principle in Ukraine's part. As a paladin of freedom you should see that.

Anyway, as previous posts have suggested, both of the factors you mentioned are present in some way: the idea of a big, imperial Russia against the sovereignity and freedom of Ukranian people to decide how to govern themselves; and literally some of the most valuable fields in Europe and the whole world for food production, mineral extraction, oil and gas are in the middle of the conflict.
 
Suedesi said:
I don’t think this war was inevitable. There are no fundamental territorial or ethnic conflicts between Russia and Ukraine that are so significant that they would inevitably have led to war. This isn’t a fight over resources, either. That is why this war was avoidable and a negotiated solution was achievable.

Once the war kicks on then the calculus changes, positions harden and diplomatic solutions available before Feb 2022, are no longer on the table. I don't think a neutral Ukraine is a realistic option, simply because this would no longer be accepted by a large majority of the population in Ukraine.
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:lol:
 
Krakenzero said:
It's funny how absolutely every take supporting the proxy war, NATO expansion, Russia's hand forced etc. basically denies any agency from ukranian people, particularly in the last 10 years.
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This is precisely the issue among Putin enablers. Everything is the west's fault and Ukrainians have zero agency to decide their own future. Nevermind that Ukrainians want to be a free democracy away from the grip of Putin's neo-imperialist authoritarianism.
 
Ragnar123 said:
I'm glad I have him on ignore. From time to time, if a new Russian propaganda parrot appears and starts talking about "peace", send him Meloni's speech. She absolutely nailed it in my opinion. I'm sorry for the music, but I didn't find another video.
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Yeah, feck that fascist.
 
Ragnar123 said:
I don't care about her other politics, especially in this thread, but she absolutely nailed it in explaining who those "pacifists" really are.
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While that may be true for you other people might see that speech in the context for her political career.

I.e it''s a bit like a speech by Blair screaming about how important it is to be honest.
 
Raoul said:
This is precisely the issue among Putin enablers. Everything is the west's fault and Ukrainians have zero agency to decide their own future. Nevermind that Ukrainians want to be a free democracy away from the grip of Putin's neo-imperialist authoritarianism.
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:lol:
 


Elon in shambles. There were a Kilo-class submarine and Ropucha-class landing ship in the drydocks this morning. Some other pictures show the ship engulfed in flames.

 
TwoSheds said:
Sounds expensive. Presumably that's just at the current time and as the new sources come online in the west the gap will narrow?
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But surely not closed. The west will never produce as much artillery ammo as the Russians, simply because they far less prioritise this type of weaponry.
 
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