Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

11101 said:
They knew some but there is no substitute for combat experience, its decades since theyve been up against modern Western kit. For example the missiles, they now know the flight profiles and how and when to jam them, before it was just theory. A modern tank is immune to anti tank weapons from certain directions but now we've seen how they behave and how to defeat them in a real fight. Its all valuable intelligence for both sides.
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Have I missed some info about the missiles? Storm shadows have been continuously slamming into key targets all over Crimea the last week or so.
 
Simbo said:
Have I missed some info about the missiles? Storm shadows have been continuously slamming into key targets all over Crimea the last week or so.
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I don't know about the storm shadow, it might be too new to the battlefield. The jdam bombs and himars rockets are becoming more and more ineffective now. They still work but they're not hitting with any accuracy.
 
11101 said:
I don't know about the storm shadow, it might be too new to the battlefield. The jdam bombs and himars rockets are becoming more and more ineffective now. They still work but they're not hitting with any accuracy.
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What is this based on? Russia can't alter the accuracy of an enemy missile, they can try and stop it (which they don't seem to be able to do well yet) or they can just move their high value target s further back (which is what they have done)
 
11101 said:
They knew some but there is no substitute for combat experience, its decades since theyve been up against modern Western kit. For example the missiles, they now know the flight profiles and how and when to jam them, before it was just theory. A modern tank is immune to anti tank weapons from certain directions but now we've seen how they behave and how to defeat them in a real fight. Its all valuable intelligence for both sides.
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While I do generally agree, I have to ask: which modern tanks? Ukraine did not receive any truly modern models.
 
tomaldinho1 said:
What is this based on? Russia can't alter the accuracy of an enemy missile
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For examply jamming the GPS signal to misdirect it is effective electronic warfare that receives exactly that result.
 
stefan92 said:
For examply jamming the GPS signal to misdirect it is effective electronic warfare that receives exactly that result.
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My understanding is in any war you have to keep changing the software in a missile because the enemy will constantly be updating theirs to combat it? Like a computer virus versus anti virus software. Or are you saying they have been highly successful doing it? I might have missed something but hadn't seen any news of that kind.
 
tomaldinho1 said:
What is this based on? Russia can't alter the accuracy of an enemy missile, they can try and stop it (which they don't seem to be able to do well yet) or they can just move their high value target s further back (which is what they have done)
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They can interrupt the GPS signal in the local area which means it either flies blind or has to rely on less accurate inertial guidance. It is a cat and mouse game with missile software to some extent but fecking with the GPS signal is a bit of a trump card.
 
If anyone has a morbid curiosity to re-read how the invasion unfolded, it starts at page 110 of this thread.
 
tomaldinho1 said:
I'm not sure that's true at all. I'd wager any professional army could do what they're doing now if they had the numbers (and probably vice versa for Ukraine) because it's simply modern day trench warfare but with them having the advantage of having more soldiers, artillery and airpower. I don't really see how they could mess this situation up unless UA either gets way more artillery delivered and can start to out gun them (unlikely) or can establish air control (which seems even more unlikely). I know there's been a lot of media spin and positivity but realistically what can UA do apart from what it's doing and maybe after years they will be able to reshape the frontline in their favour.
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Really doubt it if they don't get support from the 'West' for 'years'.

The below clip has some perspectives about the support, the politics and the counterattack.



As for people talking about the U.S. tanks changing the battle field, retired officers have said that they won't help with tons of mines around at all. Plus, they needed, like, hundreds of tanks to make a difference.

Gen. Hertling said in the other clip that combining arms with the air force is not easy. It is PhD-level hard. Training pilots takes time, and combining both air and ground will take a very long time. Some of the noise lately from the 'West' has been saying that UA did ditch the "Western" style combat and went back to the Soviet style, aka focusing and relying on artillery, whereas the UA side said it was necessary as they didn't have enough equipment anyway. He also said that people believed that the RA did not have air superiority due to the UA's air defense on the front line. But it will flip on the UA when they have some more planes to fly around because the electronic warfare has been very good on both sides to have either side have air superiority.
 
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stefan92 said:
While I do generally agree, I have to ask: which modern tanks? Ukraine did not receive any truly modern models.
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They have a small number of Leopard 2A6s. They got but haven't yet used Challenger 2s and are getting M1s. I know they've had some of the secretive stuff taken off them but they are still as new as it gets in the tank world.
 
Lots of noise today sbout Ukrainians crossing the Dnipro. Extremely unclear how that unfolds, but there definitely was a lot of artillery fire today. Let's see how that unfolds.
 
11101 said:
They have a small number of Leopard 2A6s.
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As I said, not the most modern stuff. The A6 was introduced in 2001. Since then the Bundeswehr bought these versions:
A6M (increased mine protection)
A7 (increased optics, electronics, ABC protection etc, ongoing in the A7V)
A7V
A7A1 (active protection system "Trophy")

And if you order a new one you will get an A8. So yes, it is reasonably recent, but a lot of it's systems is outdated or simply bot existing compared to newer models.
 
Ukraine’s security service, the SBU, attributed the attack to the infamous hacking group known as Sandworm, working on behalf of the Russia’s military intelligence agency. The SBU said it was able to stop the operation during the planning phase.
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Stanley Road said:
Imo this conflict won't end if you provide juuuuuuust enough weapons to defend yourself. For change it needs everything NATO has to offer. Atm it's all pointless
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It’s not pointless. Ukraine still exists and controls a majority of its territory.

It’s unrealistic, though, to expect a full drawdown of military stockpiles from NATO. NATO countries have their own responsibilities to manage while also helping Ukraine.
 
Carolina Red said:
It’s not pointless. Ukraine still exists and controls a majority of its territory.

It’s unrealistic, though, to expect a full drawdown of military stockpiles from NATO. NATO countries have their own responsibilities to manage while also helping Ukraine.
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Regardless of what equipment they get from NATO, Ukraine doesn't have the military capability or manpower to build a strong enough army to smash through the entrenched Russian army. In a peer level conflict, attackers needs to deploy overwhelming force and it's not going to happen.

The hope that 2023 would provide a decisive breakthrough, push to the sea and liberate Crimea is pretty much over. The front lines will ossify and become de-facto international borders. The political will to support further conflict from the west is already fading. It's just like in 2014. Putin has gotten away with it, at great cost, but he's gotten away with it.
 
foolsgold said:
The front lines will ossify and become de-facto international borders. The political will to support further conflict from the west is already fading. It's just like in 2014. Putin has gotten away with it, at great cost, but he's gotten away with it.
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Tell that to the 600-800 daily dead Russians and who knows how many wounded. The war in the current state is not sustainable for Putin, so even if the front doesn't move much, his reserves are getting more and more depleted. His camps full of soviet armor built for 40 years getting emptier by the day. Ukraine won't tire of this war, because it's a war of existence for them. They know every concession to Putin is just an invitation for later aggression. Russia on the other hand will eventually get tired. Today's situation and that of 2014 couldn't be further apart.
 
Ragnar123 said:
Tell that to the 600-800 daily dead Russians and who knows how many wounded. The war in the current state is not sustainable for Putin, so even if the front doesn't move much, his reserves are getting more and more depleted. His camps full of soviet armor built for 40 years getting emptier by the day. Ukraine won't tire of this war, because it's a war of existence for them. They know every concession to Putin is just an invitation for later aggression. Russia on the other hand will eventually get tired. Today's situation and that of 2014 couldn't be further apart.
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i disagree. Ukraine may not tire of the war, but it's western backers are already starting too. I saw on CNN today, 55% of US voters don't back further support for Ukraine. without long term western support there is no prospect of victory.

Also, Ukrainians are losing people every day too, a well entrenched defensive unit will take much fewer loses than one attacking it.
 
foolsgold said:
kraine may not tire of the war, but it's western backers are already starting too. I saw on CNN today, 55% of US voters don't back further support for Ukraine
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So far most of the western leaders promise to keep supporting Ukraine long term. Those daily surveys to fill in airtime don't change the fact. Further, many US voters have only a very limited insight of global politics and what it actually means to let Putin do as he wants.
foolsgold said:
without long term western support there is no prospect of victory.
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This is simply wrong. Even if in the highly unlikely worst case western leaders betray their morals and promises and stop the support, Ukraine will adapt. As long as people fight for their existence, they will always find a way to fight back. You want an example? Look at the Taliban. It didn't matter at all, that they had to hide in some dark holes for 20 years. They adapted and overcame foreign invasion in the end. If you fight for your right to exist, you don't care how long it takes. That is different with the aggressor side. The longer this goes on, the more Russians will ask themselves for what they actually die over there.

foolsgold said:
Ukrainians are losing people every day too
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They don't need to be reminded of that, nor do we. You just need to watch some of the countless videos of Russia's warcrimes. Just look in the faces of those people who have just lost relatives because of Russian missiles. Do their faces look like they want to surrender? Watch some documentaries on Putin's wars against Chechnya or Georgia. They know exactly what it means to hold their ground against Putin.
 
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Looks like bull's-eye. A good reminder for Russians that waging war is a double-edged sword.

 
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Russia giving Ukraine daily more reasons to resist with everything they have.
 
Ragnar123 said:
This is simply wrong. Even if in the highly unlikely worst case western leaders betray their morals and promises and stop the support, Ukraine will adapt. As long as people fight for their existence, they will always find a way to fight back. You want an example? Look at the Taliban. It didn't matter at all, that they had to hide in some dark holes for 20 years. They adapted and overcame foreign invasion in the end. If you fight for your right to exist, you don't care how long it takes. That is different with the aggressor side. The longer this goes on, the more Russians will ask themselves for what they actually die over there.
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Big difference is the Russians are not fighting with any rules of engagement. Afghanistan would have been over rather quickly if that had been the case there.

Russia will simply grind them down and exhaust all their supplies if the West moves on and stops supporting them, which will inevitably happen as politics changes.
 
11101 said:
Big difference is the Russians are not fighting with any rules of engagement. Afghanistan would have been over rather quickly if that had been the case there.

Russia will simply grind them down and exhaust all their supplies if the West moves on and stops supporting them, which will inevitably happen as politics changes.
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Considering that the last time they invaded Afghanistan they also failed to win quickly and instead by this invasion weakened the Soviet Union so much that it was part of its downfall, I don't think Russia would be successful in Afghanistan now.
 
11101 said:
Big difference is the Russians are not fighting with any rules of engagement. Afghanistan would have been over rather quickly if that had been the case there.

Russia will simply grind them down and exhaust all their supplies if the West moves on and stops supporting them, which will inevitably happen as politics changes.
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Ignoring whether you’re correct or incorrect, are you aware what a genuinely awful example Afghanistan is when trying to argue your case?!
 
Ragnar123 said:
yeah
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Good to see. I’d love to know how Russian stocks of ammo etc have changed in the last 18 months. No doubt they can, and are, producing more, but they can’t be doing that at anywhere near the rate they are using it.
 
foolsgold said:
The hope that 2023 would provide a decisive breakthrough, push to the sea and liberate Crimea is pretty much over. The front lines will ossify and become de-facto international borders. The political will to support further conflict from the west is already fading. It's just like in 2014. Putin has gotten away with it, at great cost, but he's gotten away with it.
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Really weird takes here, considering A) Not even 2014 borders have "ossified" yet; B) We are in the F16 training phase of the political will at this point; and C) I fail to see what Putin got away with geopolitically speaking. An eventual stalemate with a now militarized, mobilized and closely aligned with the West Ukraine won't even be close to a win. Let alone what this war did with his economy and his base of power. And his people, of course.
 
Krakenzero said:
Really weird takes here, considering A) Not even 2014 borders have "ossified" yet; B) We are in the F16 training phase of the political will at this point; and C) I fail to see what Putin got away with geopolitically speaking. An eventual stalemate with a now militarized, mobilized and closely aligned with the West Ukraine won't even be close to a win. Let alone what this war did with his economy and his base of power. And his people, of course.
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He also effectively got away with the non expansion of NATO. I mean Finland (soon Sweden) joining is a mere detail.
 
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