Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

It would be extremely hard to provoke Article 5 without being attacked directly (?). Even if they get it done, without tangible evidence to show the public, their support would decline, probably ensuring the election of governments that are either friendly to Russia, isolationists, or even dictator wannabes in some of the NATO countries later on. Putin and Xi Jinping would love to make it happen.

The only viable solution for the West would be to just keep sending more advanced weapons while maintaining a moderate amount of public support for the war. The faster and more they can send weapons, the better for themselves too. Physically intervening with the NATO troops at this point would be shooting themselves in the foot in the eyes of their own public and the world.

:lol: you are unbelievable
 
Read a few posts above.

The idea is that if they want to intervene just for the nuclear plant, which won't have much impact (still bad) by some accounts outside of UA, they can't just decide alone to go in and attack the Russian troops and hope it will be the best outcome for UA. It would need much more cooperation and support from other major powers to come to the decision that they would do that as NATO. Because it is Russia, a country with nuclear weapons. The reasons to arrive at that decision would be much harder to accept within NATO itself and for the world to accept, not because of moral compass but because no one wants to escalate it to a war that will involve their countries directly.


Not to mention, UA would have to be okay with the risk of giving their approval to NATO, considering that if shit escalates more, it is their country that would have the most impact, which can last for generations.

So the most powerful military alliance in the history of the planet, comprising 31 of the world's most advanced militaries. Formed specifically as a mutual defence pact in the case of a Russian attack, couldn't 'alone' decide to defend themselves. NATO would need permission to do the very thing it was created for?

OK, who's permission would they need?
 
So the most powerful military alliance in the history of the planet, comprising 31 of the world's most advanced militaries. Formed specifically as a mutual defence pact in the case of a Russian attack, couldn't 'alone' decide to defend themselves. NATO would need permission to do the very thing it was created for?

OK, who's permission would they need?
It will be
Rebekah Vardy
 
And this is why entities from both the west and east are probably in no real rush to bring this to a close. The money being made off this conflict without having to put actual boots on the ground is likely staggering.

Entities meaning weapons manufacturers. The war has been an economic disaster for all of Europe.
 
So the most powerful military alliance in the history of the planet, comprising 31 of the world's most advanced militaries. Formed specifically as a mutual defence pact in the case of a Russian attack, couldn't 'alone' decide to defend themselves. NATO would need permission to do the very thing it was created for?

OK, who's permission would they need?
He is right in so far as NATO should be sure that of they join Ukraine no one joins Russia in this war.
 
Entities meaning weapons manufacturers. The war has been an economic disaster for all of Europe.
I'm curious, is this really the case? The initial chaos in the first weeks after the invasion is gone. Gas prices don't seem to be that big of a topic anymore and have lowered.

I'm sure European economies took a hit. But has it been a disaster?
 
He is right in so far as NATO should be sure that of they join Ukraine no one joins Russia in this war.

Highly unlikely anyone would want to help Russia if they've caused a Nuclear disaster, certainly not China. But even if for some reason a country did I don't see how that would change the NATO's decision once it's been made. If NATO considers it's been attacked then it will activate Article 5 regardless of the actions of some other countries.
 
Highly unlikely anyone would want to help Russia if they've caused a Nuclear disaster, certainly not China. But even if for some reason a country did I don't see how that would change the NATO's decision once it's been made. If NATO considers it's been attacked then it will activate Article 5 regardless of the actions of some other countries.
NATO doesn't trigger Article 5 - a member country does and it's only ever happened once
 
NATO doesn't trigger Article 5 - a member country does and it's only ever happened once

In the event of Russia purposely causing a Nuclear disaster in Ukraine. The aftermath of that would affect multiple NATO members. Ergo multiple members/NATO.

Even so that doesn't negate my last post, so not sure what your point was.
 
Lviv attacked last night.


Bastards. They'll claim right away they dont attack residental buildings..

When I see this I have an urge to slap silly anyone who supports Russia over this or in general. Thats why I'm actively avoiding that people.
 
Sadly only 7 out of 10 cruise missiles were shot down heading for Lviv. I can imagine Ukraine has not much air defense there and prioritize other regions and towns , given the town is far in the west and close to the polish border.
 
Lviv attacked last night.


Literally 100m or so from my in-laws’ apartment. They hit the building next to the bus stop where we always get off when in the city. I recognised the location on Twitter and Telegram and had to wake my wife up to tell her, whose phone was full of messages from people asking.

They would have been aiming for the military academy on the same street parallel to the park, missing by several hundred metres.
 
In the event of Russia purposely causing a Nuclear disaster in Ukraine. The aftermath of that would affect multiple NATO members. Ergo multiple members/NATO.

Even so that doesn't negate my last post, so not sure what your point was.

The country closest to the plant is... Russia. Forget NATO countries. If the wind blows the wrong way, and most winds in Europe go West to East, some of the most densely populated areas of Russia are right on the border with Ukraine and well within the fallout zone. They would be absolutely nuts to set off a nuclear disaster on their own doorstep.
 
The country closest to the plant is... Russia. Forget NATO countries. If the wind blows the wrong way, and most winds in Europe go West to East, some of the most densely populated areas of Russia are right on the border with Ukraine and well within the fallout zone. They would be absolutely nuts to set off a nuclear disaster on their own doorstep.

Judging by some of the decisions they've made over there in the last 2 years, I honestly wouldn't be shocked. They blew up a dam that affected them more than Ukraine only a few weeks ago.
 
The country closest to the plant is... Russia. Forget NATO countries. If the wind blows the wrong way, and most winds in Europe go West to East, some of the most densely populated areas of Russia are right on the border with Ukraine and well within the fallout zone. They would be absolutely nuts to set off a nuclear disaster on their own doorstep.
You say that as if putin gives a shit about his own population.
 
Judging by some of the decisions they've made over there in the last 2 years, I honestly wouldn't be shocked. They blew up a dam that affected them more than Ukraine only a few weeks ago.

It affected Ukrainian tertority currently occupied by Russia more than Ukrainian tertority not occupied by Russia. It was barbaric, but made sense from a ruthless Russian POV. It causes chaos and destruction to Ukrainian infrastructure and the civilian population. It also reduces the front line they have to defend by making it inaccessible. Even if only temporarily.

You say that as if putin gives a shit about his own population.

He clearly doesn't and treats the population and civil infrastructure as a resource to be used to further his goals rather than as a functioning society. But nuclear fallout over vast swathes of his "resources" is counter productive to his efforts.

That being said, I'm sure they could do a lot of localised damaged by sabotaging the plant in some way without causing a full blown meltdown or blowing up piles of nuclear material into the atmosphere.
 
It affected Ukrainian tertority currently occupied by Russia more than Ukrainian tertority not occupied by Russia. It was barbaric, but made sense from a ruthless Russian POV. It causes chaos and destruction to Ukrainian infrastructure and the civilian population. It also reduces the front line they have to defend by making it inaccessible. Even if only temporarily.

Yeah that's what I meant though you described it more accurately.

It was barbaric indeed.
 
This is pretty amazing, Lukashenko talking to the BBC directly. Seems to think he can decide to use Russia's tactical nukes without their say-so. Probably bluster.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-66129555
But if it's true he is on a speedrun of getting rid of Putin's power over Belarus.

When he got the nukes he said "no country that got nukes has ever been attacked". I already at the time wondered if his endgame here is preventing occupation by Russia...
 
When he got the nukes he said "no country that got nukes has ever been attacked". I already at the time wondered if his endgame here is preventing occupation by Russia...

Those nukes are useless without the electronic codes, which are in Putin's briefcase, no? I don't think Putin would risk it and give Lukashenko the opportunity to become independent.
 
Those nukes are useless without the electronic codes, which are in Putin's briefcase, no? I don't think Putin would risk it and give Lukashenko the opportunity to become independent.
That's the point of the video I responded to - he made it sound like he can decide to use them. That would require Belarus to actually knowing the codes.

Probably it's just talk and the truth is what you said, but if Lukashenko really got those we know would have to treat Belarus as a nuclear power indeed. And this "we" includes Russia...
 
But if it's true he is on a speedrun of getting rid of Putin's power over Belarus.

When he got the nukes he said "no country that got nukes has ever been attacked". I already at the time wondered if his endgame here is preventing occupation by Russia...

Come on, of course he won't be able to decide to use them on his own without approval from Russia. But he would never say so openly since it makes him seem completely dependent on Russia, which he does not like - but being dependent on Russia it is the only way he can stay in power.

I am honestry amazed how he is still able to fool many in the west that he seriously wants to get rid of Russian influence over Belarus. He is almost 30 years in power. Over this time he tied Belarusian economy to Russia even more that it was before. Politically and militarily he took Belarus to all the possible unions with Russia. Russian army can march through Belarus if it wants to. His security services and military are full of people who would welcome Russian occupation. If Putin decided to annex Belarus he could do it with relative ease unfortunately - and that is entirely of Lukashenka's making. If he were serious about decoupling from Russia he wouldn't be doing what he did over 30 years.

Of course he values the fact that he is nominally independent and has more freedom of action than heads of Russian regions, since he likes power more than anything else. But if he had a choice between (i) Belarus stays independent and he has to relinquish power and (ii) Belarus gets annexed and he stays head of autonomous Bealsrusian region within Russia - he would always choose the latter. As a Belarusian who observes him closely for the last 25 years and have read his biographies etc etc - I am 100% sure of that.
 
Come on, of course he won't be able to decide to use them on his own without approval from Russia. But he would never say so openly since it makes him seem completely dependent on Russia, which he does not like - but being dependent on Russia it is the only way he can stay in power.

I am honestry amazed how he is still able to fool many in the west that he seriously wants to get rid of Russian influence over Belarus. He is almost 30 years in power. Over this time he tied Belarusian economy to Russia even more that it was before. Politically and militarily he took Belarus to all the possible unions with Russia. Russian army can march through Belarus if it wants to. His security services and military are full of people who would welcome Russian occupation. If Putin decided to annex Belarus he could do it with relative ease unfortunately - and that is entirely of Lukashenka's making. If he were serious about decoupling from Russia he wouldn't be doing what he did over 30 years.

Of course he values the fact that he is nominally independent and has more freedom of action than heads of Russian regions, since he likes power more than anything else. But if he had a choice between (i) Belarus stays independent and he has to relinquish power and (ii) Belarus gets annexed and he stays head of autonomous Bealsrusian region within Russia - he would always choose the latter. As a Belarusian who observes him closely for the last 25 years and have read his biographies etc etc - I am 100% sure of that.
Oh I don't think he wants to get rid of ties to Russia, but as you yourself said he values his independency and during all those deals he always made sure that he gets a good deal from Russia.

Like for example having Russian troops keep him in power and then sending no troops to support them in Ukraine. I am quite sure that Putin is very unhappy about that, but he apparently doesn't have the means to do anything to force Lukashenko, but instead even has to endure hearing Lukashenko about how he calmed down Putin during the Wagner coup as if Putin was an enraged Teenager.