Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

What’s the defences of Moscow like? At first thought one would assume that it’s one of the best protected cities in the world. But the last few years have shown that Russia is basically crumbling everywhere. I wouldn’t be surprised if Moscow isn’t as well protected as one would think, due to corruption and allocation of funds. Don’t think anyone in Russia seriously expected a mercenary to march 25000 troops on Moscow.
 
Nope, but I’m in the north side of the city
How is the current mood around you? I assume due to the wildly conflicting reports and the fast developments everyone woke up quite confused this morning?
Whatever happens, hopefully you'll stay well!
 
What’s the defences of Moscow like? At first thought one would assume that it’s one of the best protected cities in the world. But the last few years have shown that Russia is basically crumbling everywhere. I wouldn’t be surprised if Moscow isn’t as well protected as one would think, due to corruption and allocation of funds. Don’t think anyone in Russia seriously expected a mercenary to march 25000 troops on Moscow.
To be fair Moscow is fecking huge. I don't know how you'd fortify 2500 km².

Also I don't know how you'd take it with 25000 men unless the population semi cooperates.
 
According to the Danish military specialists om TV, Wagner don't stand a chance if things get violent.

That's pretty much what every military expert said about Ukraine when it got violent. Turned out to be incorrect
 
What’s in it for Wagner to do a WWE style flip? Have they been offered more money by Europe?

He essentially has slagged of the Russian military leaders and Putin for weeks. And refused to hand over his troups to Russian Army command. And then Russian Army command said he was fcked in public. So he just ran for it and got more fecked! But not like he had much to lose anyway, he was a dead man walking.
 
To be fair Moscow is fecking huge. I don't know how you'd fortify 2500 km².

Also I don't know how you'd take it with 25000 men unless the population semi cooperates.
I guess it mostly depends on possible reinforcements for Wagner forces. If other units join them, I honestly think they could be able to take Moscow. But they need allies on their way to the city and inside the city.

Where is Putin hiding right now?
 
Sorry if this sounds bad but I don't think I trust a people who haven't known democracy to suddenly start making good decisions.
Would be a miracle to me if this ends in something more democratic than it started in (which itself was already a scam, no doubt).

But if Russia was ruled by a puppet it would give every Russian a legitimate reason to fight the west and I just can't see that being any better in the long term.
 
What’s in it for Wagner to do a WWE style flip? Have they been offered more money by Europe?
Good question but I doubt it’s the money, at least for Prigozhin. As I talk with w few Russian and Ukrainians I know one thing they all repeat it’s a move with any possibility to backtrack - they went all in, now why? Perhaps Wagner knew it’s only a matter of time before Putin destroys them, maybe Prigozhin felt personally threatened and figured out it’s his best shot to survive.

I’ll be surprised if both Putin and Prigozhin are alive by the end of next week. Dead or gone and hard to find
 
How is the current mood around you? I assume due to the wildly conflicting reports and the fast developments everyone woke up quite confused this morning?
Whatever happens, hopefully you'll stay well!
Baffled and weirdly excited? Not about the coup itself but about the direct evidence of the regime crumbling.
 
What’s in it for Wagner to do a WWE style flip? Have they been offered more money by Europe?

Shoigu issued an order for all PMCs to sign contract for MoD, effectively disbanding them and putting under his control, deadline was set for 1st of July. With loads of animosity brewing between Wagner and MoD during the war, it was probably sign or die type of deal. Penny has finally dropped, also by some reports, just as Shoigu was about to make his move towards Wagner.
 
To be fair Moscow is fecking huge. I don't know how you'd fortify 2500 km².

Also I don't know how you'd take it with 25000 men unless the population semi cooperates.
25k troops wouldn’t stand a chance. But if parts of the regular military is laying down their weapons or even joining them…
 
What’s in it for Wagner to do a WWE style flip? Have they been offered more money by Europe?
It looks like Prigozhin felt that he was getting gradually disposed of (which he was).And decided to take action while he still can.
 
Would be a miracle to me if this ends in something more democratic than it started in (which itself was already a scam, no doubt).

But if Russia was ruled by a puppet it would give every Russian a legitimate reason to fight the west and I just can't see that being any better in the long term.
I mean, if the puppet just governed and didn't piss about, it'll be fine.
 
This chap has ties to the US. He even catered for George Bush.

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"Damn son. These hot dogs be lit."

- George Bush, 2006.
 
That's pretty much what every military expert said about Ukraine when it got violent. Turned out to be incorrect

Maybe yeah. What i love about ut atm is just the morale boost for Ukraine. Will be interesting to see how this develops.
 
Reuters reporting that Russian army helicopters have opened fire on a Wagner convoy on the M4 highway between Rostov and Moscow.
 
If it weren’t the central command for the war in Ukraine, I’m guessing the military HQ in Rostov would look like Beslan by now.
 
Baffled and weirdly excited? Not about the coup itself but about the direct evidence of the regime crumbling.
Is this the feeling within your own friend group or the wider community? I’m surprised to see the feeling of excitement within Russians at the potential collapse of the regime.

Maybe that’s me having western bias thinking most Russians support the current regime vehemently.

Certainly interesting what you say though.
 
25k troops wouldn’t stand a chance. But if parts of the regular military is laying down their weapons or even joining them…

That's the thing. A coup isn't really a matter of number, it's about support especially among the military. Prigozhin has strong ties with sevaral body of the military and is very popular among soldiers.
 
Is this the feeling within your own friend group or the wider community? I’m surprised to see the feeling of excitement within Russians at the potential collapse of the regime.

Maybe that’s me having western bias thinking most Russians support the current regime vehemently.

Certainly interesting what you say though.
My own bubble, I can't really speak for Russians in general and I haven't gone to the streets to question general population.
 
From building trenches around Kiev to building trenches around Moscow.