Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Call me crazy, but I think Trump would have given Ukraine even more weapons than the Biden admin. His ramblings are just the usual opposition talk. Oldest rule in politics, if you want to get votes. You don't get them by supporting the current government. But remember his cruise missiles on Assad's military bases although Russian forces already supported Assad? I doubt Biden would have dared.

Trump said:
At Mar-a-Lago on Thursday night Trump explained his surprise assault to the world. He said Assad – “a dictator” – had “choked out the lives of innocent men, women and children.” “It was a slow and brutal death for so many. Even beautiful babies were cruelly murdered in this very barbaric attack,” he declared, adding: “No child of God should ever suffer such horror.”


I can imagine his press conference after Putins missile wave: "Those beautiful, beautiful Ukrainian children were cruelly murdered. We give them anything they ask for, so they will never suffer such horror again!" Trump is a talker, but I believe he would have supported Ukraine all the way.
 
Call me crazy, but I think Trump would have given Ukraine even more weapons than the Biden admin. His ramblings are just the usual opposition talk. Oldest rule in politics, if you want to get votes. You don't get them by supporting the current government. But remember his cruise missiles on Assad's military bases although Russian forces already supported Assad? I doubt Biden would have dared.




I can imagine his press conference after Putins missile wave: "Those beautiful, beautiful Ukrainian children were cruelly murdered. We give them anything they ask for, so they will never suffer such horror again!" Trump is a talker, but I believe he would have supported Ukraine all the way.

You forget that Zelensky didn't want to play ball on the Hunter Biden issue to the point that he withhold sending arms to Ukrraine if he would not do it. So I doubt that he would give everything to him. Mostly nothing and flip the bird to him
 
Call me crazy, but I think Trump would have given Ukraine even more weapons than the Biden admin. His ramblings are just the usual opposition talk. Oldest rule in politics, if you want to get votes. You don't get them by supporting the current government. But remember his cruise missiles on Assad's military bases although Russian forces already supported Assad? I doubt Biden would have dared.




I can imagine his press conference after Putins missile wave: "Those beautiful, beautiful Ukrainian children were cruelly murdered. We give them anything they ask for, so they will never suffer such horror again!" Trump is a talker, but I believe he would have supported Ukraine all the way.

Your crazy ;)
 
Call me crazy, but I think Trump would have given Ukraine even more weapons than the Biden admin. His ramblings are just the usual opposition talk. Oldest rule in politics, if you want to get votes. You don't get them by supporting the current government. But remember his cruise missiles on Assad's military bases although Russian forces already supported Assad? I doubt Biden would have dared.




I can imagine his press conference after Putins missile wave: "Those beautiful, beautiful Ukrainian children were cruelly murdered. We give them anything they ask for, so they will never suffer such horror again!" Trump is a talker, but I believe he would have supported Ukraine all the way.

I will call you crazy since you asked…Trump (irrespective of kompromat rumours) relies on far right goons who love Putin’s anti-modern, anti-liberal agenda.
 
Call me crazy, but I think Trump would have given Ukraine even more weapons than the Biden admin.

Not a chance. Trump is a transactional opportunist whose primary goal is self-aggrandizement, therefore he would've done just what he suggested last night. He would've cast himself as the arbiter of peace and in the process pressured the Europeans to "pay their fair share" just as he did with NATO nations when he was in office. Putin would've in turn interpreted Trump's actions as a tacit bat signal that he could use far more powerful weapons in Ukraine, because he assessed Trump wouldn't do anything about it, which would be an accurate assessment on Putin's part.
 
Not a chance. Trump is a transactional opportunist whose primary goal is self-aggrandizement, therefore he would've done just what he suggested last night. He would've cast himself as the arbiter of peace and in the process pressured the Europeans to "pay their fair share" just as he did with NATO nations when he was in office. Putin would've in turn interpreted Trump's actions as a tacit bat signal that he could use far more powerful weapons in Ukraine, because he assessed Trump wouldn't do anything about it, which would be an accurate assessment on Putin's part.

Could be of course, but how do you explain then his cruise missiles on Assad's bases when Putin already supported him?
 
Call me crazy, but I think Trump would have given Ukraine even more weapons than the Biden admin. His ramblings are just the usual opposition talk. Oldest rule in politics, if you want to get votes. You don't get them by supporting the current government. But remember his cruise missiles on Assad's military bases although Russian forces already supported Assad? I doubt Biden would have dared.




I can imagine his press conference after Putins missile wave: "Those beautiful, beautiful Ukrainian children were cruelly murdered. We give them anything they ask for, so they will never suffer such horror again!" Trump is a talker, but I believe he would have supported Ukraine all the way.
You’re batshit.
 
Could be of course, but how do you explain then his cruise missiles on Assad's bases when Putin already supported him?
It was the correct proportional response (well, two responses) to the chemical attacks by the Assad regime. There was no possibility of Russian retaliation imo. These were transactional.
 
Call me crazy, but I think Trump would have given Ukraine even more weapons than the Biden admin. His ramblings are just the usual opposition talk. Oldest rule in politics, if you want to get votes. You don't get them by supporting the current government. But remember his cruise missiles on Assad's military bases although Russian forces already supported Assad? I doubt Biden would have dared.
I am with you on this topic. Trump surely acted and talked like a madman, but I think this is exactly what would have prevented Putin from starting the invasion. It is just extemely difficult to predict how he would have reacted and I don't think Putin would have dared to test it.

He thought he could calculate how the west reacted and miscalculated, but at least Putin was quite sure of the response.
 
I am with you on this topic. Trump surely acted and talked like a madman, but I think this is exactly what would have prevented Putin from starting the invasion. It is just extemely difficult to predict how he would have reacted and I don't think Putin would have dared to test it.

He thought he could calculate how the west reacted and miscalculated, but at least Putin was quite sure of the response.
I don't think it's that difficult to predict what Trump would have done. He wouldn't have helped Ukraine at all, probably on the excuse of 'America first'.

I think if Trump were elected he probably would end the war quickly as he says. He'd threaten to withhold all aid from Ukraine if they didn't bow down to whatever terms Russia offered.

It's a mistake to think Trump won't act like he talks. I think many made that mistake in 2016 of assuming he couldn't possibly act as bad as he talked, turns out he did much worse.
 
It's a mistake to think Trump won't act like he talks.
True. So let's listen to what he says. He says he would stop the fighting, he doesn't say that he wants one side or the other to win and I do think he maybe does not even care about that.

So how could it look if he wants the US to stay "neutral" but to stop the war? Simple! Just destroy everyone and everything still fighting! Let the Air Force shoot down every plane flying over Ukraine, let it bomb every firing piece of artillery etc. Easily announced in big words and simple sentences, perfectly transporting his ignorance to the world and actually stopping the fighting. That's the kind of plan I would assume Trump might be thinking about.

And of course he would be whining about America first and how the European NATO partners should do their part as well.
 
True. So let's listen to what he says. He says he would stop the fighting, he doesn't say that he wants one side or the other to win and I do think he maybe does not even care about that.

So how could it look if he wants the US to stay "neutral" but to stop the war? Simple! Just destroy everyone and everything still fighting! Let the Air Force shoot down every plane flying over Ukraine, let it bomb every firing piece of artillery etc. Easily announced in big words and simple sentences, perfectly transporting his ignorance to the world and actually stopping the fighting. That's the kind of plan I would assume Trump might be thinking about.

And of course he would be whining about America first and how the European NATO partners should do their part as well.
Trump's isolationism is real. It's not 100% consistent (killing Soleimani, bombing Syria), but it is one of his core views, however few he has. He doesn't think the US gets anything out of extending any real blanket of protection to anywhere in the world, and therefore he wants out. He doesn't want the Air Force to go fight for Ukraine.
 
A good thread about the Storm Shadow and what it can and can't do. I wouldn't expect it to be able to reach the Kerch bridge since it would have to cross large spaces of open water where it can't use the terrain as cover from Russian radars.
 
Thankfully, it will be long over until then even if US population will be stupid enough to vote him in again.

You think Russia will admit defeat within about 18 months, especially if they know the US will scale back/stop their support right after?
 
You think Russia will admit defeat within about 18 months, especially if they know the US will scale back/stop their support right after?
They’ll be pushed back and won’t have any offensive capacity left for years to come, in that sense their wishes won’t matter by that date.
 
The ANC (ruling party in South Africa) is now under very serious scrutiny after thoe following revelations. The opposition is roasting President Ramaphosa because of that.

 
Russia won't ever admit defeat, even if pushed back to its borders, but at that point, Ukraine would have done what they have set out to do.
 



It would be brilliant if they could achieve that. Russian defenses should be the weakest around Bakhmut, because you don't build fortifications usually, when you keep attacking all the time.
 
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Trump praised Putin's annexation of Crimea and repeatedly spouted Kremlin propaganda. If someone speaks Russian, they want to be ruled by Russia, etc.

Trump's priorities in the first few months of his presidency was make Russia great again, he couldn't care less about Murica. Bashing NATO and the EU, supporting Brexit, attacking sanctions. He's openly said he would take the US out of NATO in a 2nd term.

It was apparently a requirement of Trump's staffers to have strong Russian ties, or at the least be Russian friendly. His campaign manager was as obvious an actual Russian asset as it gets, without it being stamped on his forehead. Remember the guy who spent 10 years prior to working for Trump, advising the guy who very nearly succeeded in turning Ukraine into a Russian puppet state? But sure, Trump would have helped Ukraine :lol: Then you've got Flynn, Stone, Bannon, Slater, Wilbur Ross, Carter Page, Rick Gates, Papadopoulos, Tillerson, etc. All knee deep in Russian money.

All the WikiLeaks nonsense. That completely independent whistleblowing organisation, as long as it furthers Russian interests.

The Helsinki summit, where after the secret meetings with Putin, he stood next to him like a lapdog agreeing to extradite US officials to Russia.

Everything the Mueller report uncovered, all the obstructions.

Withholding weapons to Ukraine, attempting to drag Zelensky into a political scandal.

I'm sure there's more.

Its not just like minds, Dictators sticking together or cashing in favours for all the electoral help Trump gets. There is too much. Trump is a Putin bot.

Not a cat in hells chance he would have helped Ukraine. He can't make it too obvious of course (apparently everything he's already done isn't enough for some people), but at the least he'd have pressured Ukraine into whatever terms Putin wanted and made sure the rest of the world accepted it and moved on. Under the guise of peace and whatever bullshit he was peddling last night.

Remember Trumps covid response? Doing everything possible to let it run rampant and do maximum damage to America behind the defence of stupidly and batshit conspiracy theories? I'd imagine something like that.
 
I think these Lancet drones were causing serious trouble for the Ukrainians.

 
It would be brilliant if they could achieve that. Russian defenses should be the weakest around Bakhmut, because you don't build fortifications usually, when you keep attacking all the time.
Lots of panic in Russian telegram channels right now...
Of course at the moment we now nothing for sure, but it looks like at least a limited offensive has begun now.
 
Choosing Bakhmut for the first counteroffensive seems more of a propaganda value than strategic. "You tried for so long and failed, now watch what we do" etc.
 
Expecting Russian positions in Bakhmut to collapse at some point in the near future
The first apparently already did. Especially the 72nd brigade lost it's position on the southern flank, reports are that Wagner had to pull fighters from attacking the city center to stabilize that front (and that means, they had to stop their ongoing attacks in the city itself). Reports also indicate that the 72nd only had machine guns as the heaviest weaponry and was just obliterated by Ukrainian tanks. So this report is coupled with massive criticism of the Russian leadership, why there were no anti-tank weapons on that frontline. Things are heating up there..
 



It would be brilliant if they could achieve that. Russian defenses should be the weakest around Bakhmut, because you don't build fortifications usually, when you keep attacking all the time.

Yea, something looks to be brewing in the eastern front.

 
Lots of panic in Russian telegram channels right now...
Of course at the moment we now nothing for sure, but it looks like at least a limited offensive has begun now.

Really does feel like the situation in Ukraine is about to significantly change.

Its as if just the threat of a counter-offensive, hyped up for so long now, is devastating Russian forces before it even begins.
 
Choosing Bakhmut for the first counteroffensive seems more of a propaganda value than strategic. "You tried for so long and failed, now watch what we do" etc.
The situation in Bakhmut is an excellent to create an even deeper rift between the different factions in Russia (especially between Wagner and the regular army). The strategic value is completely destroying their relation because they will blame each other and therefore fueling internal struggles in Russia.
 
The situation in Bakhmut is an excellent to create an even deeper rift between the different factions in Russia (especially between Wagner and the regular army). The strategic value is completely destroying their relation because they will blame each other and therefore fueling internal struggles in Russia.
Exactly. Prigozhin exhausted nearly his whole terror group to take Soledar, most of Bakhmut and surroundings. If they lose all of that in a matter of days, the shit will hit the fan.
It would be extremely cunning of Zelenskyy to give that interview today to bbc stating they still need more time and weapons for their counteroffensive, while it started at the same time.
 
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The situation in Bakhmut is an excellent to create an even deeper rift between the different factions in Russia (especially between Wagner and the regular army). The strategic value is completely destroying their relation because they will blame each other and therefore fueling internal struggles in Russia.
I was thinking the same. Strategic town or not, it does seem like it has caused serious tension between Wagner and the Russian MoD. No doubt Western intelligence are monitoring that communication.
 
Telegraph reporter. Perhaps a local offensive in Bakhmut then, but not yet "the big one"?