Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Kazakhstan ends unlimited stay for Russians.
ALMATY, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Kazakhstan will no longer allow Russian citizens to stay in the Central Asian country indefinitely by doing so-called visa runs every three months, according to a government directive published this week.
The Astana government will disallow the practice from Jan. 26, requiring Russians and citizens of other members of the Eurasian Economic Union, a post-Soviet bloc, to leave the country for at least 90 days after the permitted three-month stay.

The ability to stay in the country de facto indefinitely - by leaving it and reentering every 90 days - has been another important factor. However, the country has struggled to cope with the influx of Russians. Authorities in Kazakhstan have said the unusually large inflows contributed to inflation, which soared to more than 20% last year, its highest since the 1990s.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/kazakhstan-ends-unlimited-stay-russians-2023-01-17/
 
Bulgaria to the rescue: How the EU’s poorest country secretly saved Ukraine.
Thanks to its fractured domestic politics — and the pro-Russian leanings of much of its elite — Sofia has been at pains over the course of the invasion to stress that it is not arming Ukraine.

That was, however, a smokescreen, according to an investigation by German daily WELT, a sister publication of POLITICO in the Axel Springer Group. Thanks to exclusive interviews with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, former Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov and his finance minister, Assen Vassilev, WELT has pieced together a picture of how Bulgaria stepped into the breach and used intermediaries to provide Kyiv with vital supplies of weapons, ammunition and diesel at a critical juncture of the fighting last year.
https://www.politico.eu/article/bul...skyy-kiril-petkov-poorest-country-eu-ukraine/
 

In the same speech he praised Croatian president Milanović who said its just a proxy war between Russia and US, sanctions are stupid and we shouldn't be American slaves.

He's a bit of an idiot, maybe he's even on a Russian payroll, wouldn't be at all surprised.
 
"The Sanctions on Russia Are Working. Slowly But Surely, They Are Weakening Putin."

The assertion that the Russian economy has shown remarkable resilience to sanctions hinges on misleading macroeconomic indicators. Specifically, critics of sanctions point to the strengthened ruble, the modest contraction of Russian GDP, and low unemployment. But these figures do not in fact reflect the situation on the ground.

Putin has invested significant resources in a disinformation campaign aimed at misleading Western policymakers about the real effects of sanctions. But make no mistake: they are, in fact, hobbling the Russian economy. And propagating the myth that they are not effective could nudge policymakers to drop them, giving Putin a lifeline.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/sanctions-russia-are-working
 
An unusual, but smart move. Not entirely bad for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict either.
They’ll be getting something even deadlier they can use to murder them in exchange down the road.
 
In the same speech he praised Croatian president Milanović who said its just a proxy war between Russia and US, sanctions are stupid and we shouldn't be American slaves.

He's a bit of an idiot, maybe he's even on a Russian payroll, wouldn't be at all surprised.
He has been against helping Ukraine since the start, and has also been against Sweden and Finland joining NATO.

An idiot who still has nostalgia for Soviet Union (like many left-wing people in ex-Yugoslavia have), or being in Russian's payroll, this is the question.
 
I don't know if it's just me that is being overly optimistic but I got a feeling that there will be some very good news after the Ramstein meeting on Friday, and not just from the US.
 
Good article.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/18/germany-history-defend-ukraine-zelenskiy

If Germany has truly learned from its history, it will send tanks to defend Ukraine
Timothy Garton Ash
Wed 18 Jan 2023

While many have pledged support, Germany has a unique historical responsibility toward Zelenskiy and his people. It cannot shirk it

[...]

Germany’s historical responsibility comes in three unequal stages. Eighty years ago, Nazi Germany was itself fighting a war of terror on this very same Ukrainian soil: the same cities, towns and villages were its victims as are now Russia’s, and sometimes even the same people.

[...]

The second stage of historical responsibility comes from what the German president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, has honestly described as the “bitter failure” of German policy towards Russia after the annexation of Crimea and the start of Russian aggression in eastern Ukraine in 2014.

[...]

This historic mistake led to the third and most recent stage. A month after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February last year, a group of leading German figures formulated an appeal for an immediate boycott of fossil fuels from Russia. “Looking back on its history,” they wrote, “Germany has repeatedly vowed that there must ‘never again’ be wars of conquest and crimes against humanity. Today the hour has come to honour that vow.” (Full disclosure: I co-signed this appeal.)

Chancellor Olaf Scholz decided against this radical course, arguing that it would endanger “hundreds of thousands of jobs” and plunge both Germany and Europe into recession.

[...]

According to a careful analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, in the first six months of the full-scale war, Germany paid Russia some €19bn for oil, gas and coal. For comparison: Russia’s entire military budget for six months in 2021 was around €30bn. (No reliable figures are available for 2022.) Since a large part of Russia’s budget revenues comes from energy, the unavoidable conclusion is that Germany was contributing to Putin’s military budget, even as he prosecuted a war of terror on the very soil where Nazi Germany had prosecuted a war of terror 80 years before. Yes, other European countries also went on paying Russia for energy, but none had Germany’s unique historical responsibility towards Ukraine.

[...]

This has also become a litmus test of Germany’s courage to resist Putin’s nuclear blackmail, overcome its own domestic cocktail of fears and doubts, and defend a free and sovereign Ukraine. Scholz’s speech at the World Economic Forum on Wednesday gave no hint of such boldness. But in stepping to the front of a European Leopard plan for Ukraine, Scholz would be showing German leadership that the entire west would welcome. He would also be learning the right lessons from Germany’s recent and very recent history.
 
Good article.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/18/germany-history-defend-ukraine-zelenskiy

If Germany has truly learned from its history, it will send tanks to defend Ukraine
Timothy Garton Ash
Wed 18 Jan 2023

While many have pledged support, Germany has a unique historical responsibility toward Zelenskiy and his people. It cannot shirk it

[...]

Germany’s historical responsibility comes in three unequal stages. Eighty years ago, Nazi Germany was itself fighting a war of terror on this very same Ukrainian soil: the same cities, towns and villages were its victims as are now Russia’s, and sometimes even the same people.

[...]

The second stage of historical responsibility comes from what the German president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, has honestly described as the “bitter failure” of German policy towards Russia after the annexation of Crimea and the start of Russian aggression in eastern Ukraine in 2014.

[...]

This historic mistake led to the third and most recent stage. A month after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February last year, a group of leading German figures formulated an appeal for an immediate boycott of fossil fuels from Russia. “Looking back on its history,” they wrote, “Germany has repeatedly vowed that there must ‘never again’ be wars of conquest and crimes against humanity. Today the hour has come to honour that vow.” (Full disclosure: I co-signed this appeal.)

Chancellor Olaf Scholz decided against this radical course, arguing that it would endanger “hundreds of thousands of jobs” and plunge both Germany and Europe into recession.

[...]

According to a careful analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, in the first six months of the full-scale war, Germany paid Russia some €19bn for oil, gas and coal. For comparison: Russia’s entire military budget for six months in 2021 was around €30bn. (No reliable figures are available for 2022.) Since a large part of Russia’s budget revenues comes from energy, the unavoidable conclusion is that Germany was contributing to Putin’s military budget, even as he prosecuted a war of terror on the very soil where Nazi Germany had prosecuted a war of terror 80 years before. Yes, other European countries also went on paying Russia for energy, but none had Germany’s unique historical responsibility towards Ukraine.

[...]

This has also become a litmus test of Germany’s courage to resist Putin’s nuclear blackmail, overcome its own domestic cocktail of fears and doubts, and defend a free and sovereign Ukraine. Scholz’s speech at the World Economic Forum on Wednesday gave no hint of such boldness. But in stepping to the front of a European Leopard plan for Ukraine, Scholz would be showing German leadership that the entire west would welcome. He would also be learning the right lessons from Germany’s recent and very recent history.
Miracles do happen, I agree with you on something, this is a good article ;)

A bit oversimplifying the events of WW2 and completely ignoring the events of WW1 (which lead some Russian propaganda outlets to claim that Ukraine is just an artificial construct created by the Germans and not a real nation), but I guess this is more important if you want to analyze Russian reasoning and not really for the Germans now.

However I fear it's not going to happen. The selection of the new Defence Secretary (Boris Pistorius) doesn't indicate a policy change by Scholz, as Pistorius never was a vocal critic of Russia but instead for example advocated some years ago for reducing the sanctions put into place after 2014. So the typical russophile SPD member in a sense. However he definitely is more competent at organising stuff than Lambrecht was, so if decisions are made I have a little bit more hope that they are actually fulfilled in a useful and timely manner.
 
He has been against helping Ukraine since the start, and has also been against Sweden and Finland joining NATO.

An idiot who still has nostalgia for Soviet Union (like many left-wing people in ex-Yugoslavia have), or being in Russian's payroll, this is the question.
Maybe both. His mandate will be all about him spouting crap after crap for 5 years. Hopefully he'll lose the election on Ukraine theme cause as you said he's been prorussian from the start.
 

Finally some mid-to-long range capabilities will be provided, long hecking overdue…Ideally, should be given 300km though. Hope these can be delivered in the shortest possible timeframes not allowing Russia to adjust their logistics.
 
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The US has an absolutely stupid amount of tanks, they really could send some to Ukraine and not notice they were gone.
The problem with the M1 Abrams is not the amount of available tanks, it's the engine that is the main issue.
Western tanks like Leopard, Challenger and Leclerc all use diesel engines very similar to a normal truck engine and can be repaired by any half decent truck mechanic.
The M1 Abrams on the other hand uses a turbine engine that requires specially trained mechanics and special spare parts. It's fuel consumption is also quite a bit higher.