Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

harms said:
I thought at some point they were controlling up to 40% of the town? Although it may be wrong — I don't try to factcheck those tactical news as it's not as important overall & I also have no idea how to properly do it.
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They have been inside or extremely close to the eastern outskirts of the city in the past few days according to the UKR sources. I have no way to know from the Russian sources. I mean it might also depend on what areas are defined as the city limits.

I guess I am talking about the residential area closer to downtown, not the industry area or something.
 
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Raoul said:
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As someone else said, the cannibalism state is the most entertaining.

I love seeing Girkin despondent about the situation on the ground and full on turning on the Kremlin and Putin directly. Laying all the blame on their doorstep for the upcoming disaster and for the horrendous loss of life. The last sentence from him: "Victory over Ukraine, the final defeat of the AFU, is impossible" is... *chef's kiss*
 
Krakenzero said:
Then a diplomatic non-military mission on the region? I just want to understand what the red line would be. It could be something big enough to dissuade Belarus but not big enough for Russia to claim NATO is directly involved (not that it would stop them).
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I think the idea from a NATO perspective is to allow Putin to weaken himself domestically through a protracted campaign in Ukraine. That is happening now without the need for NATO to cross any imaginary red lines and be in direct military conflict with Russia. Therefore, unless Russia makes serious incursions into Ukraine (not likely given how they're being pushed back at the moment) I can't see any reason for NATO troops to destabilize the current situation when the Ukrainians are making progress by themselves on multiple fronts.
 
RoyH1 said:
I cannot see a slippery survivor like Lukashenko agreeing to joining the war when the Ukranians have proved so resilient. If they didn't do it in february/march, they're not going to do it now.
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He always managed to evade direct action when it didn't suit him but the whole balancing act between Russia and the West that he's been doing for the past 2+ decades (he wasn't truly balancing between the two but he always played Russia/Putin using the scenario of him moving away from their course to get advantage in current negotiations) obviously doesn't really work now that the West isn't willing to accept him in any way.

I don't think that Putin ever truly forced him to do anything that Lukashenko wasn't willing to do (like a proper reunification with Belarus becoming a federal state in Russian Federation — before the war it was always THE DEAL that he was trying his best not to make). If Putin, who is obviously cornered, truly pushes him, would Lukashenko be able to resist? To Putin having Belarus' forces is probably the X-factor that he's counting on in his otherwise (although let's be honest, it's doomed either way) hopeless hypothetical scenario of the second wave of invasion.

Obviously joining the war effort is almost suicidal but then Lukashenko's dictatorial regime also won't survive in the world where Putin is defeated.
 
RoyH1 said:
Has Belarus any worthwhile forces trainingwise? Their equipment seems to be old Soviet stuff but we've seen how it's the men and not the weapons that are counting in this war.
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I don't think they're particularly well armed. Lukashenko is also in a precarious position in that he is a political subsidiary of Putin's mafia state who needs Putin for him to remain in power in Belarus, while at the same time, not wanting to appear to the west that he is an active participant in Ukraine, so as to avoid further sanctions.
 
TwoSheds said:
If the counterattacks can drive the Russians out though then I'm not quite sure what you are worrying about? Should the time finally come that the Russians have run out of troops / logistics / whatever there then the Ukrainians will be able to regain the lost ground, as they apparently do every day according to you.
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I am worried that it will be lost for obvious reasons. And there is no such thing as according to me. It is according to the resources on Twitter, which kept saying it has been extremely difficult for the past month, and their maps kept showing how close the Russians are to the residential areas.

Running out of their combat capability right outside of the city would be the best thing, of course.
 
The United said:
I am worried that it will be lost for obvious reasons. And there is no such thing as according to me. It is according to the resources on Twitter, which kept saying it has been extremely difficult for the past month, and their maps kept showing how close the Russians are to the residential areas.

Running out of their combat capability right outside of the city would be the best thing, of course.
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Trench/urban warfare is never going to be easy I don't think. Things being "extremely difficult" sounds pretty normal to me at some point in a war.
 
Raoul said:
I think the idea from a NATO perspective is to allow Putin to weaken himself domestically through a protracted campaign in Ukraine. That is happening now without the need for NATO to cross any imaginary red lines and be in direct military conflict with Russia. Therefore, unless Russia makes serious incursions into Ukraine (not likely given how they're being pushed back at the moment) I can't see any reason for NATO troops to destabilize the current situation when the Ukrainians are making progress by themselves on multiple fronts.
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Agree with this. If NATO became more directly involved, it would give Putin an excuse for losing this war. And sustainable peace (if such a thing is possible) can only be achieved with Putin and his friends gone.
 
VorZakone said:
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Well it's probably not a million miles from the truth that the vast majority of their weapons and equipment now will be from either NATO or captured Russian stuff. A lot of the stuff they had in February must be toast. But I'm not sure what that has to do with the price of eggs of course, doubtless the Russians have had to replace much of their weaponry and equipment since then too.
 
TwoSheds said:
Well it's probably not a million miles from the truth that the vast majority of their weapons and equipment now will be from either NATO or captured Russian stuff. A lot of the stuff they had in February must be toast. But I'm not sure what that has to do with the price of eggs of course, doubtless the Russians have had to replace much of their weaponry and equipment since then too.
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It is complete bullshit from Russian TV. As usual. Russians will be "fighting NATO" only when NATO Air Force planes, operated by NATO pilots, are actively bombing Russian forces. The Air Force is the most important component of any NATO military force.
 
TwoSheds said:
Well it's probably not a million miles from the truth that the vast majority of their weapons and equipment now will be from either NATO or captured Russian stuff. A lot of the stuff they had in February must be toast. But I'm not sure what that has to do with the price of eggs of course, doubtless the Russians have had to replace much of their weaponry and equipment since then too.
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The majority of equipment is still Ukrainian or captured from Russia, NATO deliveries still are a (however crucial) minority.
 
The reactions from most Russian commentators would be amusing if they weren't so tragic in the big picture of what is happening. They are absolutely mortified about how this is just not going the way they wanted and seething in frustration at how the image they've been carefully nurturing of a superpower is a big facade. All those carefully planted videos of Russian superweapons on YouTube are now basically just living in the imagination of 14 year old edgelords.

Putin's Russia is a mid level kleptocracy that's just buoyed by the fact that it inherited thousands of nuclear weapons from the Soviet Union.
 
stefan92 said:
The majority of equipment is still Ukrainian or captured from Russia, NATO deliveries still are a (however crucial) minority.
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Even small arms and ammunition? They must have fired 10 reserves worth of ammo by now.
 
Are these weapons being donated to Ukraine? Or they going to pay us back?

If they are being sold, is it on a cost-basis, or is their profit being made?
 
A lot of the equipment is also old Soviet hand-me-downs from other ex-Soviet countries, which were/are being replaced with NATO standard equipment in the arsenal of those countries.

I expect the impactful NATO armaments component to be on the two different ends of the scale. One, is the cheap (in the grand scheme) but highly essential infantry man equipment like vests, goggles, medkits, rifles, transport vehicles etc. On the other end, there is high tech and expensive artillery and air-defence pieces as well as the rounds/missiles that go into them. The latter are very impactful but few in number. I expect the majority of artillery and air defence pieces to still be old Soviet stuff.

The 3rd component will be the vital sharing of intel from both military satellites and agent reports, as well the creation of secure comms channels for the Ukrainian chain of command.
 
Zelensky has visited Bakhmut where he paid his respects for the brave defenders:
 
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RoyH1 said:
With what troops? They can barely hold their own in Ukraine?

I don't see the Rumanians taking this lying down
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Transnistria would be a great staging point to attack Odesa. That said, they can't even defend their existing territory from the Ukrainians much less gain new areas.
 
In other news, a Norwegian supreme Court judge had publicly accused his ukrainean wife of poisoning him over several months in an attempt on his life and that she is now on the run.

The next day she confirmed with several papers she is not on the run, had no motive for killing her husband as she's financially dependent on him and shared these txts from him:

«I think Putin is on track. Earlier his goal was to denazifise Ukraine. Now he tells that the goal is to desatanifise (desatanifisere) Ukraine. On this point he is spot on, but has a big job to do.»

«People from Ukraine are from hell!»

«I hope that the war with Russia ends with that Ukraine is deleted from map!!!»

He confirmed the txts but explained those were the writings of a man deranged by longterm poisoning and that it is only in the past week he has regained his sanity and was able to identify his wife as the only possible cause of the poisoning.
 
B20 said:
In other news, a Norwegian supreme Court judge had publicly accused his ukrainean wife of poisoning him over several months in an attempt on his life and that she is now on the run.

The next day she confirmed with several papers she is not on the run, had no motive for killing her husband as she's financially dependent on him and shared these txts from him:

«I think Putin is on track. Earlier his goal was to denazifise Ukraine. Now he tells that the goal is to desatanifise (desatanifisere) Ukraine. On this point he is spot on, but has a big job to do.»

«People from Ukraine are from hell!»

«I hope that the war with Russia ends with that Ukraine is deleted from map!!!»

He confirmed the txts but explained those were the writings of a man deranged by longterm poisoning and that it is only in the past week he has regained his sanity and was able to identify his wife as the only possible cause of the poisoning.
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:lol: what the feck? Has he been at the crack pipe or something?
 
I’d highly recommend this series of lectures by Timothy Snyder on The Making of Modern Ukraine, which he teaches at Yale. I’ve listened to the first three and am hooked. I miss university.

 
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