Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

So, Putin wants to try an invasion of Kyiv again, is he insane, stupid?

His army has a hard time enough as it is, and they couldn't even suceed in that objective last time when they had the upper hand.
 
So, Putin wants to try an invasion of Kyiv again, is he insane, stupid?

His army has a hard time enough as it is, and they couldn't even suceed in that objective last time when they had the upper hand.

His probable strategy is to take out Ukrainian infrastructure as winter sets in, then use that to his advantage through a second northern invasion so he can alleviate Ukrainian pressure on Russian positions in the south and east.

Trouble is, his troops are untrained conscripts and would get obliterated by Ukrainians who are increasingly armed to the gills with sophisticated NATO weapons. This is not the same Ukrainian army Putin managed to surprise with his best troops 10 months ago.
 


It's been a long time since I had to study the bible but I must have missed the chapter that covers when the use of nuclear weapons is justified.

So have they moved on from the denazification nonsense then?

It turns out this is actually a holy war between orthodox Christians and um orthodox Christians.
 
It's been a long time since I had to study the bible but I must have missed the chapter that covers when the use of nuclear weapons is justified.

So have they moved on from the denazification nonsense then?

It turns out this is actually a holy war between orthodox Christians and um orthodox Christians.

The weatherman agrees, so he must be right.
 
Interesting pattern break: Lukashenko has been in Russia on average once a month to meet Putin. He hasn't been there since September and now they will meet in Minsk tomorrow. Wonder what will happen then...
 
So, Putin wants to try an invasion of Kyiv again, is he insane, stupid?

His army has a hard time enough as it is, and they couldn't even suceed in that objective last time when they had the upper hand.
You can't really predict his actions by trying to rationalize them, so the rule of the thumb is not to rule anything out.

The thing is, he doesn't really have a way out at this point. He probably had it in late spring still but he's not going to survive a full on defeat (which is coming eventually) or a complete surrender (Ukraine will take nothing less). So trying to launch another attack by throwing everything that he has left on it in the hope that the West will be fed up by that war by the end of the winter seems like a very possible strategy. It won't play out like he wants it to and it's going to lead to tens of thousands of additional deaths but it's not like he cares.
 
Probably in the Book of Armaments, same place that mentions the holy hand grenade of Antioch.
It's usually done by god himself, but genocide and mass destruction are regularly happening in the bible (killing all firstborn Egyptians, destroying Sodom and Gomorrha etc).

If you believe that Kiyv is full of satanists and other godless people, nuking it is perfectly in line with the bible, at least with the old testament, not so much with the new.
 

Probably trying to ease the pressure on his troops in the east and south by forcing Ukraine to keep forces in the northern border.
I cannot see a slippery survivor like Lukashenko agreeing to joining the war when the Ukranians have proved so resilient. If they didn't do it in february/march, they're not going to do it now.
 
Probably trying to ease the pressure on his troops in the east and south by forcing Ukraine to keep forces in the northern border.
I cannot see a slippery survivor like Lukashenko agreeing to joining the war when the Ukranians have proved so resilient. If they didn't do it in february/march, they're not going to do it now.
I’m 95% confident that they’ll make him to join the war by presenting him this as the only option to stay alive.

 
Has Belarus any worthwhile forces trainingwise? Their equipment seems to be old Soviet stuff but we've seen how it's the men and not the weapons that are counting in this war.
 
Has Belarus any worthwhile forces trainingwise? Their equipment seems to be old Soviet stuff but we've seen how it's the men and not the weapons that are counting in this war.
They don’t but they have plenty of men in the country and Putin wants to use up that resource first before further depleting Russian population as he sees them as more dispensable. Russia is full on nazi state and European leaders has still not woken up to this fact, unfortunately.
 
Where's that guy who was going on about how long it would take to reclaim Bakhmut when the Ukrainians were losing a bit of ground?
Bakhmut hadn't been lost to the Russians at all. They were just getting closer to the city and trying to encircle it. By most accounts, the situation has been the same for a few days. The Russians are extremely close to the city and crossed most of its natural barriers in the east and south.

The kind of counterattack mentioned in that tweet happens every day there but the Russians had gained grounds overall despite all that.
 
Dumb question, couldn't Poland or someone else place a small force north of Kiev for, I don't know, humanitarian/training purposes so it helps dissuading Lukashenko from any weird ideas? I understand this could have important geopolitical repercussions tough.
 
Dumb question, couldn't Poland or someone else place a small force north of Kiev for, I don't know, humanitarian/training purposes so it helps dissuading Lukashenko from any weird ideas? I understand this could have important geopolitical repercussions tough.

That would mean direct NATO military involvement inside Ukraine, not by simply giving the Ukrainians weapons, but by actually using NATO soldiers to fight Russians.
 
Bakhmut hadn't been lost to the Russians at all. They were just getting closer to the city and trying to encircle it. By most accounts, the situation has been the same for a few days. The Russians are extremely close to the city and crossed most of its natural barriers in the east and south.

The kind of counterattack mentioned in that tweet happens every day there but the Russians had gained grounds overall despite all that.
I thought at some point they were controlling up to 40% of the town? Although it may be wrong — I don't try to factcheck those tactical news as it's not as important overall & I also have no idea how to properly do it.
 
That would mean direct NATO military involvement inside Ukraine, not by simply giving the Ukrainians weapons, but by actually using NATO soldiers to fight Russians.

Then a diplomatic non-military mission on the region? I just want to understand what the red line would be. It could be something big enough to dissuade Belarus but not big enough for Russia to claim NATO is directly involved (not that it would stop them).
 
Bakhmut hadn't been lost to the Russians at all. They were just getting closer to the city and trying to encircle it. By most accounts, the situation has been the same for a few days. The Russians are extremely close to the city and crossed most of its natural barriers in the east and south.

The kind of counterattack mentioned in that tweet happens every day there but the Russians had gained grounds overall despite all that.

If the counterattacks can drive the Russians out though then I'm not quite sure what you are worrying about? Should the time finally come that the Russians have run out of troops / logistics / whatever there then the Ukrainians will be able to regain the lost ground, as they apparently do every day according to you.