Pascal’s Wager basically fails at every conceivable point. The first, and perhaps most important, is that it presents a false dichotomy. By saying “What if you’re wrong?” you’re leaving out the possibility that
you could also be wrong about Christianity. It completely ignores all of the possible religions, variations of religions, afterlives, heavens and hells, and ideas like eternal justice and mercy that might exist. It assumes right from the beginning that the only religion you need to wager on is Christianity (or fill in the blank with whatever religion you’re using this for). Consider this: you may qualify for the Christian heaven, but by doing so are qualifying for the hell of several other religions. Take it one step further: you may qualify for Southern Baptist heaven, but by doing so are condemning yourself to Catholic hell. Both may be “Christian” but they say different things about the path to salvation (read my last two letters for more on this).
The second point where it fails is that it assumes that belief is a “free” activity in the sense of “It costs you nothing, so why not do it?” This is false, though. If it turns out you were wrong to believe in God then all the time you spent worshiping, reading the Bible, and praying could have been spent doing something more meaningful and productive. Every dollar you gave to your Church went down the drain. You’re essentially wasting hours and hours of your life and hundreds (or thousands) of dollars on something which gives nothing substantial back to the environment or society around you (I’m not saying churches aren’t useful community building instruments, what I’m saying is that if religion turns out to be bunk, then their message is superstitious and backwards and we’d be better off not supporting them regardless of the good they perform. This is a statement about “If religion is false” not a statement about the utility of it under our current uncertainties). Moreover, if you happen to fall into the category of believer who, by his/her beliefs, decides to actively fight against scientific progress (e.g. stem cell research) or environmental health (e.g. climate change/global warming legislation) on religious grounds, then not only are your actions a waste of time, but potentially harmful to future generations of people living on this planet, or the planet itself, all because of a book written hundreds of years ago.
Third, this wager makes a mockery of the idea of God. How are you going to venerate God as the greatest possible being to exist, and who can read your thoughts and judge them, and then turn around and say God isn’t smart enough to see through false beliefs made “just in case?” To use Christopher Hitchens’ term, it’s “
religious hucksterism.” It’s a sly way of saying, “Hey, come on over to my shop, I have a special price just for you, but come in through the side door.” It assumes God is a moron. If this wager were a real possibility for eternal salvation, then it’s all the more reason
not to believe in the God it represents.
Fourth, this wager presumes to say that you can believe anything that you will yourself into believing. I don’t know if you’ve ever tried this, but try willing yourself into a belief you don’t believe. Try to make yourself, right now, believe in Santa Claus as a real person who really does deliver millions of gifts in one night using flying reindeer. Try it. Can you make yourself believe this? I do, I do, I do, I do, I do believe in Santa Claus… nothing. Can’t do it. Beliefs are not subject to willpower. If a person cannot believe, he cannot believe. No amount of trickery or “public profession of faith” is going to suddenly trick his mind into believing something he just can’t believe. So what’s the point?
The point, and I think Christopher Hitchens was on to something when he called it hucksterism, is that Pascal’s Wager isn’t an honest question. It’s a trick. It’s trying to goad the non-believer into staying quiet about religion and just go along with the Christian majority. It’s saying, “Hey, you don’t believe, but wouldn’t you rather get along with all of us who do? Yes? So why not just make the professions, perform the sacraments, and come join us in church? It’s easy; just tell yourself you believe every night before you go to bed. Who knows, maybe one day you’ll wake up and it’ll be true! I mean, think about it: What if you’re wrong about Jesus?” Well, what if you’re wrong about Muhammad? Or Mahavira? Or Sheva? Or Ganesh? Or Zeus? Or Odin? Think about it.