Rasmus Højlund | Signed for United

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Let’s assume the following just so you see the analysis of how they price an asset like Harry Kane vs. Hojlund.

Revenue pre CL = 500m
Harry Kane £80m fee + 350k/wk, 4yr contract.
- 20m amortized transfer fee +18m/ yr wages = 38m
Assume CL all 4 years, with semifinals, quarters, rd of 16 and semifinals for CL revenue at 90m -80m - 70m - 90m
- 590m - 580m -570m -590m

Hojlund 60m fee + 150k/wk, 5 year contract
- 12m amortized fee + 7.8m wages = 20m
Assume CL 2 out of 4 years, rd of 16, no CL, group stage, no CL for CL revenue at 70m - 0m -60m-0m

Difference
Kane revenue +330m - costs 160m = 170m gain
Hojlund revenue +130m - costs 80m = 50m “gain”

Obviously, you’d choose Kane. Throw in other trophies and it’s even more compelling.

Kane isn't an option until summer 2024
 
Many are just sore because we can't get Kane this summer due to a rivalry that Levy believes exists between the two clubd
But let’s be honest, that was always going to be the case dealing with spurs. With our funds it was pretty clear long before the summer that there would be practically zero chance of getting Kane, or even Osimhen for that matter.

He seemed to be people’s clear third choice a few months back, but this thread and many others make me think that some people would moan if they had nothing to moan about.:lol:
 
Let’s assume the following just so you see the analysis of how they price an asset like Harry Kane vs. Hojlund.

Revenue pre CL = 500m
Harry Kane £80m fee + 350k/wk, 4yr contract.
- 20m amortized transfer fee +18m/ yr wages = 38m
Assume CL all 4 years, with semifinals, quarters, rd of 16 and semifinals for CL revenue at 90m -80m - 70m - 90m
- 590m - 580m -570m -590m

Hojlund 60m fee + 150k/wk, 5 year contract
- 12m amortized fee + 7.8m wages = 20m
Assume CL 2 out of 4 years, rd of 16, no CL, group stage, no CL for CL revenue at 70m - 0m -60m-0m

Difference
Kane revenue +330m - costs 160m = 170m gain
Hojlund revenue +130m - costs 80m = 50m “gain”

Obviously, you’d choose Kane. Throw in other trophies and it’s even more compelling.

So in that case, why don't we go for Kane?
 
Where did you get 9 goals in 45 appearances? At club level, he had 16 goals in 42 games(or 2551 minutes).
I am waiting for someone to say 9 goals in 80 games next! :lol:

Those 9 goals are basically in 20 games when you look at the minutes he played.
 
9 goals in 45 appearances last season doesn't thrill me, we can't be hanging our hat on a 20yr old raw recruit to fire us to the title surely, would have thought there must be another more experienced striker being lined up before the window closes.

Are we just going to make numbers up now to suit whatever narrative or opinion we want to have? His stats for Atlanta were 10 goals in 34 appearances.

Not to just pick you out (there's others as well), I get having reservations about him but, the way some posters are so cynical and negative it really is grating. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, that's what the forum is for but, how about some perspective and balance in viewpoints? He may not fire us to the title (I don't see any realistic signing doing that atm) but, that's not what he's being signed for is it? How about some patience in the manager and the project he's trying to build?

FAO Mods - can we please have another thread with a poll (if Hojlund is signed) and list all the negative posters (I mean the outright negative ones who are writing him off as too expensive/destined to flop before he's even kicked a ball for us) so, (God willing) when/if he does succeed they can be named and shamed? Likewise if he does flop, I'm equally happy to be called out for having had the gall to show some positivity and faith in our manager!
 
And what do you think ETH thinks about Hojlund? Is he buying him to become a mediocre player?

No, he thinks he has great potential. He would not buy a 20 year old he thinks has average potential or is only going to ever be serviceable. It's to become a top PL striker. Or even better a world class one.

And if they're raw as you put it, then obviously they're going to look raw on occasion. That's kind of the nature of the beast. If everything looked world class they'd be world class already. The recruitment team have to see past that and extrapolate and that's what they've done. He's exactly what you're asking for. A raw bundle of talent that needs moulding but has extreme potential.
I think ETH wants him but no manager has a 100% success rate on signings.

Regarding the bolded I’ve made this point already but the one aspect that can’t be taught is technique - which is why I said we should be looking for that and can work on the other attributes, I’ve given countless examples of young strikers who fit that criteria at a young age despite being raw and went on to become world class - we should be looking for that potential imo.
 
Based on the Youtube vids it seems like he tries to get into the 6 yard box and has the pace (seems faster over longer distances than short, like most big men), which we haven't really had since Chicharito unless I'm forgetting someone.

So at the very least he should be useful against teams sitting deep or coming off the bench while he develops and gets up to speed.

Seems unlikely he'll immediately be a clear starter though, just not a lot of strikers his age ready to lead the line for a quality side, so my guess is a lot of Sancho-Rashford-Antony or even Rashford-Martial-Antony with Hojlund as the main attacker off the bench and everyone is mad.
 
You’ve highlighted one striker who isn’t technically outstanding and used that to justify your position. I’d still argue he’s technically better than Hojlund and also better at every other aspect of his game.

Henry, RVN, R9, Lewa, Benzema, Aguero, Suarez, RVP, Rooney, Zlatan, Kane..

All technically brilliant. Anyway, will leave it at that.

And how many of these players showed their technical brilliance at a high level when they were 20? Benzema, Agüero, Rooney and Zlatan?

Technique can be improved and strikers often get better at using it with more experience.
 
Makes me chuckle at all the negative people on here, as I recall around January when the caf was discussing strikers, loads were raving about him. This could have been because they’d watched him, or because they wanted to sound cool (I know what my opinion is). Now that it’s likely coming to fruition some of these very people are moaning.

Is it the same people though? Can you post a single example?
 
But let’s be honest, that was always going to be the case dealing with spurs. With our funds it was pretty clear long before the summer that there would be practically zero chance of getting Kane, or even Osimhen for that matter.

He seemed to be people’s clear third choice a few months back, but this thread and many others make me think that some people would moan if they had nothing to moan about.:lol:

Yeah I am usually the biggest moaner and negative person on here (many will attest to that), however with signings even if I have reservations I believe in giving them a chance
 
I think ETH wants him but no manager has a 100% success rate on signings.

Regarding the bolded I’ve made this point already but the one aspect that can’t be taught is technique - which is why I said we should be looking for that and can work on the other attributes, I’ve given countless examples of young strikers who fit that criteria at a young age despite being raw and went on to become world class - we should be looking for that potential imo.

You've given countless examples that consists of Henry, Agüero, RvP, Suarez, Lewandowski and the likes. I'd like to know what young striker out there now that have the potential to be as good?
 
Let’s assume the following just so you see the analysis of how they price an asset like Harry Kane vs. Hojlund.

Revenue pre CL = 500m
Harry Kane £80m fee + 350k/wk, 4yr contract.
- 20m amortized transfer fee +18m/ yr wages = 38m
Assume CL all 4 years, with semifinals, quarters, rd of 16 and semifinals for CL revenue at 90m -80m - 70m - 90m
- 590m - 580m -570m -590m

Hojlund 60m fee + 150k/wk, 5 year contract
- 12m amortized fee + 7.8m wages = 20m
Assume CL 2 out of 4 years, rd of 16, no CL, group stage, no CL for CL revenue at 70m - 0m -60m-0m

Difference
Kane revenue +330m - costs 160m = 170m gain
Hojlund revenue +130m - costs 80m = 50m “gain”

Obviously, you’d choose Kane. Throw in other trophies and it’s even more compelling.

Kane wants £580k per week wages.
I didn’t read the rest.
 
I think ETH wants him but no manager has a 100% success rate on signings.

Regarding the bolded I’ve made this point already but the one aspect that can’t be taught is technique - which is why I said we should be looking for that and can work on the other attributes, I’ve given countless examples of young strikers who fit that criteria at a young age despite being raw and went on to become world class - we should be looking for that potential imo.
His technique is more than good enough for the role he would have in the team.


You've given countless examples that consists of Henry, Agüero, RvP, Suarez, Lewandowski and the likes. I'd like to know what young striker out there now that have the potential to be as good?

And all of those you mentioned, brilliant players that they were, were never a pure central strikers/target men role, most of them would excell a bit wider (except maybe Lewa) where technique is much more important, ETH wants a player for that central role where technique is not the crucial factor, so like I mentioned above, Hojlund has more than good enough technique for the role.

ETH wants a team, everyone working as a cog in a machine, not bunch of individuals.
 
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I am waiting for someone to say 9 goals in 80 games next! :lol:

Those 9 goals are basically in 20 games when you look at the minutes he played.

International record has been impressive as well. In Atalanta's play I see quite a lot of opportunities lost in getting him the ball back and he's pounced on the chances he's got. For us centrally we've been desperate for someone with good positional sense for loose balls in the box and one that can tuck away the chances. He also has good speed and can take part well in the build up. We can break as a forward line or build up the play and have someone with good instincts centrally.
 
I would like to see us do that as well,however will Utd be put off by the fact he wouldn't have played for such a long time

If I were a scout and EtH was honestly looking for another forward, he'd be a guy that i'd certainly bring to his attention. I do think missing 6 months could be a hinderance HOWEVER it's not like he's been out injured and recovering where he couldn't get a touch on the ball. I'd imagine that he's going to be something football wise during this time so he can stay sharp. If a fee is reasonable, it's a gamble worth taking IMO.
 
His technique is more than good enough for the role he would have in the team.




And all of those you mentioned, brilliant players that they were, were never a pure central strikers/target men role, most of them would excell a bit wider (except maybe Lewa) where technique is much more important, ETH wants a player for that central role where technique is not the crucial factor, so like I mentioned above, Hojlund has more than good enough technique for the role.
I just don’t agree and we’re not going to. Some of them started out wide but they all became elite strikers.
 
I think ETH wants him but no manager has a 100% success rate on signings.

Regarding the bolded I’ve made this point already but the one aspect that can’t be taught is technique - which is why I said we should be looking for that and can work on the other attributes, I’ve given countless examples of young strikers who fit that criteria at a young age despite being raw and went on to become world class - we should be looking for that potential imo.
There's a lot you can't easily teach, why hone in on one aspect (which is not poor either)? Unless it is actually poor technique which it isn't - I have seen strikers over the years with good technique but other skills that far surpass what they deliver in technique. Hold up play which is really the application of technique for a striker also dramatically improves with experience in my opinion, Martial's is light-years better now than when he arrived, even though everything else has probably regressed. It just seems you want to be negative really honing in on technique as if it's poor and intimating it can't improve.

Let's look at what he does have that is also hard to teach. You can't teach the pace and acceleration this fella has. You can't teach somebody to be over 6ft with a strong frame that will grow as he gets full man strength which is very advantageous for a lone forward. You can't teach good performances in a top league at 19. It's pretty damn hard to instill natural hunger to go out and press and work your balls off and be passionate about the club too. People think it is easy for a manager to wave a wand on personalities, but it isn't, how many duffs have we had in recent years? Better buying them to begin with and this guy wants to come here and works a proper shift.

They've identified a lot of raw material with this fella, a lot of positives. If every single box was ticked we wouldn't be getting a young talent we have to develop we'd be getting a serial winning superstar. Let's be realistic about what the expectation for a striker that's just turned 20 should be. He might have the odd heavy touch...
 
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I think ETH wants him but no manager has a 100% success rate on signings.

Regarding the bolded I’ve made this point already but the one aspect that can’t be taught is technique - which is why I said we should be looking for that and can work on the other attributes, I’ve given countless examples of young strikers who fit that criteria at a young age despite being raw and went on to become world class - we should be looking for that potential imo.

I agree that technique is usually an attribute that separates the best players from the others. However there are many other traits you need to have to be a good striker which Hojlund already has.

He's really aggressive and will be great for our press, excellent at using his body to fend off defenders and link up play which will be great for the likes of Rashford and makes a lot of clever runs in and around the box. Also, he's great at carrying the ball whilst being big and quick as feck, a really rare combination.
 
I dont believe that. It's obscene and I don't think Bayern would put that money on the table either.

Yeah I don't think he would demand that much either,however irrelevant argument as we aren't in the race for him anyway
 
If I were a scout and EtH was honestly looking for another forward, he'd be a guy that i'd certainly bring to his attention. I do think missing 6 months could be a hinderance HOWEVER it's not like he's been out injured and recovering where he couldn't get a touch on the ball. I'd imagine that he's going to be something football wise during this time so he can stay sharp. If a fee is reasonable, it's a gamble worth taking IMO.

Yeah people will talk about Eric and Rio both missing around 9 months,however difficult to compare as they were our players
 
I appreciate the philosophy but it's probably a little more cut and dry than that when we have FFP figures to adhere to. It's not just whether they feel like signing off cheques. Signing Hojlund and then ETH seems to want an additional midfielder is likely to put us outside the parameters of what is possible in this window in terms of Kane. I think we're already outside them but for some reason a subsection of our fans refuse to believe it.

Does anyone actually have a legal or accounting analysis of what our FFP transfer cap may be?
 

Why is Ornstein tagging Romano and giving credit to him? I thought he was considered and declared as a fraud by so many Caftards who doesn’t have any genuine connections and only copy paste from others?
 
I believe I have…,

I just saw your latest post. It's interesting that your financial evaluation relies on Kane being a success and on Hojlund not being one. it's also interesting to note that United qualified for the CL without Kane or Hojlund, that Tottenham didn't qualify for the CL and that with Kane Tottenham went beyond the R16 once.

Your estimation is basically the best case scenario for one player and for the other we are close to the worst scenario since even at year 4(no CL) it is assumed that he has no positive impact on the team's performances.
 
€50M + €10M is very fair. Aren't Atalanta the same club that got us to pay €30M+ for Amad? I'm wary about this deal.
 
Where is the official bid that was supposed to have been made on Monday???
A verbal offer has been made :lol: :lol:
 
Haaland is a freak of nature and somewhat of an anomally. Majority of the best strikers over the past 20 years have been technically brilliant.
Cavani, Lewandowski, Drogba.. you could argue weren't that technically skilled. Would have to agree for the most part, but there are outliers and I don't think it's ultra rare. Depends on how your team sets up to accommodate a striker who may not be gifted technically.
 
Let’s assume the following just so you see the analysis of how they price an asset like Harry Kane vs. Hojlund.

Revenue pre CL = 500m
Harry Kane £80m fee + 350k/wk, 4yr contract.
- 20m amortized transfer fee +18m/ yr wages = 38m
Assume CL all 4 years, with semifinals, quarters, rd of 16 and semifinals for CL revenue at 90m -80m - 70m - 90m
- 590m - 580m -570m -590m

Hojlund 60m fee + 150k/wk, 5 year contract
- 12m amortized fee + 7.8m wages = 20m
Assume CL 2 out of 4 years, rd of 16, no CL, group stage, no CL for CL revenue at 70m - 0m -60m-0m

Difference
Kane revenue +330m - costs 160m = 170m gain
Hojlund revenue +130m - costs 80m = 50m “gain”

Obviously, you’d choose Kane. Throw in other trophies and it’s even more compelling.
Yes. If everything you typed there were true or panned out like that. Why not assume we never qualify for CL with Hoj? Why not assume we win every match with Kane? Not sure about your figures either. It’s an interesting hypothesis but not very convincing. That said, I think we’d go for Kane if he were affordable to us, simply because he is proven to be one of the best goalscorers there is.
 
Cavani, Lewandowski, Drogba.. you could argue weren't that technically skilled. Would have to agree for the most part, but there are outliers and I don't think it's ultra rare. Depends on how your team sets up to accommodate a striker who may not be gifted technically.

Lewa has a crazy technique.

He looks very similar to Cavani.
 
Lewa has a crazy technique.

He looks very similar to Cavani.
I always thought Lewandowski's technique looked a little awkward, but was one of those players where every touch was geared towards getting an inch to get a shot off. Wouldn't put him anywhere near elite technique like an Henry, Berbatov, Bergkamp etc.

Not saying he's an Emile Heskey or anything mind, obviously still in the top percentiles.
 
I just saw your latest post. It's interesting that your financial evaluation relies on Kane being a success and on Hojlund not being one. it's also interesting to note that United qualified for the CL without Kane or Hojlund, that Tottenham didn't qualify for the CL and that with Kane Tottenham went beyond the R16 once.

Your estimation is basically the best case scenario for one player and for the other we are close to the worst scenario since even at year 4(no CL) it is assumed that he has no positive impact on the team's performances.
So, one is Harry Kane with a track record ( I don’t see that as being overly optimistic but you may think it is), and the other is basically Martial like. It’s much less likely that Hojlund gets to Kane/Haaland/MBappe level than being the next Jovic, Felix, Havertz, Werner, etc.

And with the extra money you make, you CAN buy the next sure thing. I don’t know, maybe Hojlund will turn into Brazilian Ronaldo, but it’s not likely. I see Kane as the option that has the least risk versus a very expensive unproven 20yr old. With a healthy Kane, it’s not impossible to win a league title and a CL within those 4 years
 
So, one is Harry Kane with a track record ( I don’t see that as being overly optimistic but you may think it is), and the other is basically Martial like. It’s much less likely that Hojlund gets to Kane/Haaland/MBappe level than being the next Jovic, Felix, Havertz, Werner, etc.

And with the extra money you make, you CAN buy the next sure thing. I don’t know, maybe Hojlund will turn into Brazilian Ronaldo, but it’s not likely. I see Kane as the option that has the least risk versus a very expensive unproven 20yr old. With a healthy Kane, it’s not impossible to win a league title and a CL within those 4 years

Kane is obviously by far the least risk option. This should be obvious to even the ardent Hojlund fan.
 
Yes. If everything you typed there were true or panned out like that. Why not assume we never qualify for CL with Hoj? Why not assume we win every match with Kane? Not sure about your figures either. It’s an interesting hypothesis but not very convincing. That said, I think we’d go for Kane if he were affordable to us, simply because he is proven to be one of the best goalscorers there is.
Of course, we’re building a business case. This is how you invest in an asset, you run analysis. You have to pick low-med-high scenarios and justify the capital expenditure.

I’m not saying the numbers are perfect, just that the analysis is revenue/profit minus cost. That is how the finance guys will look at this.
 
The problem is that none of us know what Harry Kane wants for himself and his family over the next five years of his life. If it were me in his shoes (I'm not fit to lace his boots, to be clear) I'd probably push for the Bayern move. Munich is a lovely city and there is no doubt that the moment you make a Bayern Munich side you've already 'got 9 fingers around every trophy you compete for.

That said, his wife may want to stay in England. There is the Shearer record. There's also the indisputable fact that the PL is the most watched football league on the planet. And with that visibility comes commercial opportunities that may pass him by if he ends his career in Germany.

But every one us knows that Spurs is a dead end club with zero chance of lifting a major trophy any time soon. If we wants to stay in England, which is not hard to imagine, and if Levy will in the end not leave 100m on the table, and if Harry wants a realistic chance at lifting a major trophy, and if he wants his name to be remembered forever, there is only club that makes any sense for him to be promoted to.
 
I've just skimmed the thread but I can't belive we are going to buy a striker who has no technique and never scored a goal.

What are management playing at ?
 
For alternatives I liked the look of Santiago Gimenez. I’d also take Goncalo Ramos. There’s no point mentioning them though, alternatives have already been mentioned in this thread and they match ETH’s criteria but they’ve all been dismissed, since Hojlund has been elevated to the status of the sole striker capable of fulfilling the role.

My problem with Hojlund isn’t the ability but the price. Paying that much for someone as unproven as he is, especially in our current state, doesn’t make sense.

Anyways it’s clear this deal is happening so might as well warm up to it. I don’t see the point going back and forth anymore. It’s also possible we can strike a deal for a fairer price than what has been reported
United hasn’t pay any fee yet.
 
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