Rasmus Højlund | Signed for United

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Isn't he one of those not well publicised options?

He was publicised enough for us to have been supposedly in for him last summer (or Jan??)…and once the supposed “back up under the radar player” you’re after starts being quoted at 80m despite having done feck all, I think you should walk away and go find another one, rather than be held to ransom because that’s all you’ve been able to find cos your scouting is shit.

I don’t like talking myself out of this, and I obviously hope he’s a huge success (and really, what do I know?) but it all seems a bit mad at these prices
 
Watched all of his touches from most big games he's played. I think it's you who has only watched his "best skillz and goalz".

Watch his performances here and tell me honestly that you think he’s ready to lead the line for United:



Might just be me, but he looks very good in that video. Great link up play and lots of clever runs.
 
Would Love Watkins, he’s also actually earned a move to a bigger PL club which I like with a CF especially.

Toney would be amazing at Utd imo, he’d really thrive on it I reckon, but not many seem to be talking about him due to the January ban I guess - but seems a bit short sighted.

Basically I think either of those would really fit this current Utd side and both have proven themselves in the PL and earned a step up imo.
Yeah, it's a bit strange with Toney. His ban doesn't mean we couldn't buy him. Sure, he'd be unavailable until January but Højlund isn't likely to hit the ground running either so shouldn't be a deal-breaker. If anything it could be an advantage as it would make him cheaper.

Watkins seems ideal to me, surprised there isn't more noise there.
 
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Here's the problem with compilations. They cherry pick the optimal moments and omit the weakness of any given player.

What's the alternative. All touches videos? You might say, "Yeah, that gives a real picture of the player", but I would argue that, actually, it does not.
You might see all touches in any given game, however, what you don't get is context. Why do you think scouts watch full games, either in-person or on video, and not "all touch videos?" Because they're misleading and dangerously entice people to commit to very strong opinions about players. For eg.

"We saw all his touches from 3-4 matches. You can see what kind of player he is."

But this is flawed. What do these videos not show you? The don't show you the lead up to any given touch; they don't show you the wider context of supporting player movement surrounding the player. You get zero tactical context to base your observations on. What could be a bad performance could in reality be a bad choice of tactics which produce an environment conducive to errors and the increasing likelihood of probability of errors occurring.

Let's be honest. How many people pointing out his ability on the ball, or his general play, really understand the context behind these moments with any given certainty? Meanwhile, you've got ten Hag and a bunch of top scouts, having watched him in full way more times than you and I likely would have done, and they seem to think that Hojlund fits the profile he's looking for. Is ten Hag missing something that you're somehow picking up?

Hardly.

Great post with nail on the head at the end, I am tired of all the "compilation video scouts" thinking they know better than actual professionals who scout players their whole lives, and not through fecking youtube compilations and raw numbers.

Yes, you can have doubts and all that, but already deciding he is terrible transfer even before it happens only based on some videos is and always will be, stupid.
 
Yeah, it's a bit strange with Toney. His ban doesn't mean we couldn't buy him. Sure, he'd been unavailable until January but Højlund isn't likely to hit the ground running either so shouldn't be a deal-breaker. If anything it could be an advantage as it would make him cheaper.

Watkins seems ideal to me, surprised there isn't more noise there.

Aston Villa will be very reluctant to sell, especially with Emery as the manager and investing in top players. It's not entirely unlikely they'll be competing for CL spot this season.
 
He was publicised enough for us to have been supposedly in for him last summer (or Jan??)…and once the supposed “back up under the radar player” you’re after starts being quoted at 80m despite having done feck all, I think you should walk away and go find another one, rather than be held to ransom because that’s all you’ve been able to find cos your scouting is shit.

So if we are after a player it's because he is publicised and not because we scouted him even when we are talking about a low profile player who was absolutely not publicised and isn't an obvious target?

And what if he is one of the main target because the scouts rate him and staff rate him? Would you apply that logic to Napoli when they spent 75m on Osimhen?
 
Can we stop with the Kane argument now? Its fairly well established Levy wont sell to us.
Levy looks at Kane as an asset… he’ll sell him to the highest bidder before the deadline if Kane does not sign an extension. It’s that simple.

most of the Caf have no background in finance and don’t look at it through that lens.

The discussion is Hojlund vs Kane. Pointing out that the cost difference isn’t that significant, but the gap in quality is significant is part of the Hojlund discussion. Sorry mate.
 
Levy looks at Kane as an asset… he’ll sell him to the highest bidder before the deadline if Kane does not sign an extension. It’s that simple.

most of the Caf have no background in finance and don’t look at it through that lens.

The discussion is Hojlund vs Kane. Pointing out that the cost difference isn’t that significant, but the gap in quality is significant is part of the Hojlund discussion. Sorry mate.

You can't talk about financial acumen or any financial projections when you have no idea about the cost for acquiring and maintaining assets.
 
Levy looks at Kane as an asset… he’ll sell him to the highest bidder before the deadline if Kane does not sign an extension. It’s that simple.

most of the Caf have no background in finance and don’t look at it through that lens.

The discussion is Hojlund vs Kane. Pointing out that the cost difference isn’t that significant, but the gap in quality is significant is part of the Hojlund discussion. Sorry mate.

Spot on. Kane may sign a new contract with Spurs and if so, so be it. And if a deal is done with Bayern, so be that.

But there is zero chance that Levy will let Harry walk and leave 100m on the table uncollected.
 
Levy looks at Kane as an asset… he’ll sell him to the highest bidder before the deadline if Kane does not sign an extension. It’s that simple.

most of the Caf have no background in finance and don’t look at it through that lens.

The discussion is Hojlund vs Kane. Pointing out that the cost difference isn’t that significant, but the gap in quality is significant is part of the Hojlund discussion. Sorry mate.

Talks of Højlund to us for £60m. Kane will be more than £100m, closer to £110m in the unlikely event he sells to a PL club.

Not only that, but with Kane we don't get the option to sell him on, whereas we do with Højlund.
 
5 times? Hojlund will cost around 70 mil and Kane would cost around 100 mil. How is it 5 times more? Even if you include wage?

Kane is world class striker about we know every single thing and Hojlund is only big potential. At this moment we don't even know what are Hojlund's strengths. Is he quick or not? Is he good in finishing? In passing? In holding the ball?

I don't mind signing Hojlund but we should sign him only if Kane or Osimhen are 100% out of reach. Osimhen is i guess because of his fee but for Kane i am not so sure. That excuse "Levy will never sell Kane to us" is a BS.
Kane will cost close to double and his wages will be 5 to 6 times as high. You do the math.
 
I think a mistake that many make when reviewing these types of deals is only looking at the costs line item, not factoring in revenue gains. Business owners look at both, and also view Kane as an asset. Neither one of us know the details in rumored bids, but our chances of CL football shoot way up with Kane over 3 years vs. Hojlund. Deep runs in the CL, prize money from winning the league are all revenue boosts that potentially add upwards of 100m to the bottom line. Kane gives us a much better chance of those revenue gains than Hojlund. If Hojlund was 30m and 100k/wk, then maybe you roll the dice with him, or buy both. But the difference of only 30m between a top 3/4 no. 9 and a very raw prospect is ridiculous.

Levy will have to sell, his majority owner wants him to(reportedly), he has a price, but that will come down as we get closer to Sept 1. I just don’t see a line of analysis where you’d choose the 20 yr old, unless he’s Haaland or Mbappe, and Hojlund doesn’t have that pedigree. Ideally, you’d want both Kane and Hojlund. In a situation where you believe you are a serious contender for the league and a deep CL run, how can you rely on an unproven 20 yr old?

id be shocked if the difference was only 30m

more like 60+ if we approached Spurs now, and that’s before you factor in 3/4x wages
 
So if we are after a player it's because he is publicised and not because we scouted him even when we are talking about a low profile player who was absolutely not publicised and isn't an obvious target?

And what if he is one of the main target because the scouts rate him and staff rate him? Would you apply that logic to Napoli when they spent 75m on Osimhen?

Probably yeah, it was a massive gamble, plus I don’t really know what Osimhen’s rep was like compared to Rasmus beforehand.

Look, I know feck all about anything. Hopefully he’ll be a tactical marvel that unlocks the way we play, but im sure just as many people are talking themselves into the idea that this isn’t a mad transfer at these amounts as are being over sceptical because we can’t see what scouts do on videos. All transfers are a gamble, and no one ever has an 100% record. So either argument is as valid as the other really, isn’t it?

But if you’d quoted Rasmus Hoijland at £70m at the end of last season, id wager absolutely everyone would’ve laughed at it as obscene, But now we have to consider it seriously and talk ourselves into it because we’re desperate, and that’s kinda our fault IMO, is all.
 
Levy looks at Kane as an asset… he’ll sell him to the highest bidder before the deadline if Kane does not sign an extension. It’s that simple.

most of the Caf have no background in finance and don’t look at it through that lens.

The discussion is Hojlund vs Kane. Pointing out that the cost difference isn’t that significant, but the gap in quality is significant is part of the Hojlund discussion. Sorry mate.

More a case most of the CAF don't think there is any chance whatsoever Levy sells to us
 
Here's the problem with compilations. They cherry pick the optimal moments and omit the weakness of any given player.

What's the alternative. All touches videos? You might say, "Yeah, that gives a real picture of the player", but I would argue that, actually, it does not.
You might see all touches in any given game, however, what you don't get is context. Why do you think scouts watch full games, either in-person or on video, and not "all touch videos?" Because they're misleading and dangerously entice people to commit to very strong opinions about players. For eg.

"We saw all his touches from 3-4 matches. You can see what kind of player he is."

But this is flawed. What do these videos not show you? The don't show you the lead up to any given touch; they don't show you the wider context of supporting player movement surrounding the player. You get zero tactical context to base your observations on. What could be a bad performance could in reality be a bad choice of tactics which produce an environment conducive to errors and the increasing likelihood of probability of errors occurring.

Let's be honest. How many people pointing out his ability on the ball, or his general play, really understand the context behind these moments with any given certainty? Meanwhile, you've got ten Hag and a bunch of top scouts, having watched him in full way more times than you and I likely would have done, and they seem to think that Hojlund fits the profile he's looking for. Is ten Hag missing something that you're somehow picking up?

Hardly.


There are a lot of all touches videos of him on youtube, here are a couple:









I can see why Ten Hag likes him: big strong player, runs a lot, presses a lot, tries to bring other players into the game. Sort of Wout Weghorst but then a lot better and he scores goals. At Ajax Ten Hag bought Haller for that role. But if Hojland is good enough or will transform our team like Kane would do, I doubt it. But he’s still young.
 
You can't talk about financial acumen or any financial projections when you have no idea about the cost for acquiring and maintaining assets.
I believe I can. The discussions are based on rumored / reported bids and wage demands. Or are we just going to ask every Caf member to verify numbers :lol:

Might as well shut down the site mate
 
Yeah, it's a bit strange with Toney. His ban doesn't mean we couldn't buy him. Sure, he'd be unavailable until January but Højlund isn't likely to hit the ground running either so shouldn't be a deal-breaker. If anything it could be an advantage as it would make him cheaper.

Watkins seems ideal to me, surprised there isn't more noise there.
Exactly.
If we have the money Atalanta want for Hojlund, we most likely have the money to approach Toney/Watkins.
It's a bit strange but seems like there's no alternatives even considered at this point.[/QUOTE]
 
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Not really. The yearly difference in wages + amortized transfer fees is not much between the two, Hojlund and Kane. At €70m vs €100m, plus salaries, you’re looking at roughly 15m a year which is minimal compared to the 60m-80m we’d earn from CL participation.

The amortization is a lot lower for Højlund. Firstly Kane would cost more than €100m, you're looking at £100m for United, minimum. Even if we end up paying €70m for Højlund, that'll likely be the end price with bonuses, not up front. Spurs will want the full amount.

Kane will also be paid at least 5x what Højlund would be on, at least.

Tifo did a video on the financial side of it. Even if they're not 100% with their figures, the Højlund deal will create nowhere near as big a hole. Qualifying for the UCL the next few years easily covers that. Signing Kane and giving him those wages could seriously affect what we can do in the transfer market for the next few seasons, especially if we do miss out on the UCL at any point.

Obviously a Qatari buyout would mean more money, but who knows whether they'll actually happen.
 
Kane will cost us three times as much per year (which is the way the club and FFP views it) as Hojlund.

FeeWages - weeklyContract LengthWages AnnuallyTotal CostAnnualised Cost
Kane£ 120,000,000.00£ 400,000.00
4​
£ 20,800,000.00£ 203,200,000.00£ 50,800,000.00
Hojlund£ 60,000,000.00£ 100,000.00
5​
£ 5,200,000.00£ 86,000,000.00£ 17,200,000.00

  • Kane will be 30 on Friday, we shouldn't be offering anything longer than 4 years.
  • Wages are as widely reported, though rumours are Kane is after even more than that (£580k weekly according to one source)
  • Levy has reportedly rejected £80m from Bayern already - he will get more from Bayern and it'll be even more again to us
  • Hojlund will have resale value, even if he flops. If we're shifting Kane, it's because he's not worked out and his wages will be an impediment to getting rid.
The kid is not guaranteed to be a hit, but if you had the choice of two investments where one would cost three times as much as the other, how would you quantify the upside potential for one over the other?

Kane has averaged 17.2 non-penalty goals (him scoring penalties for us wouldn't be an incremental improvement as we have a couple of reliable penalty takers) over the last five seasons in the league having played 164.1 90s. His record is 0.52 non-penalty goals and 0.19 assists per game. If one assumes Kane's record would be similar with us and he plays 35 league games, that works out to 18 goals and 7 assists. How many fewer goals and assists would Hojlund need to score to still be the better investment?
Thanks for this, now try it with 600k a week for Kane (Ronaldo level). With estimated resale value of Hojlund included it would be more than five times more expensive to sign Kane.
 
i think you'll see this deal get done once Atalanta announce the signing of the kid from Almeria....this deal will end up being probalby €55-60m with another 10m in addons. which is a fair deal for all sides.

Watkins would be big price tag as Villa don't need to sell him at all,would like to see us go for Toney when ban is up in January but doubt it

THIS would be the smartest move we could make....a proven guy in the league that can lead a line, score goals but doesn't have to be the #1 striker and a quality player to bring off the bench when he doesn't start. Allows us to finally FFS get rid of that french cvnt Martial
 
Levy looks at Kane as an asset… he’ll sell him to the highest bidder before the deadline if Kane does not sign an extension. It’s that simple.

most of the Caf have no background in finance and don’t look at it through that lens.

The discussion is Hojlund vs Kane. Pointing out that the cost difference isn’t that significant, but the gap in quality is significant is part of the Hojlund discussion. Sorry mate.
Levy looks at Kane as an asset… he’ll sell him to the highest bidder before the deadline if Kane does not sign an extension. It’s that simple.

most of the Caf have no background in finance and don’t look at it through that lens.

The discussion is Hojlund vs Kane. Pointing out that the cost difference isn’t that significant, but the gap in quality is significant is part of the Hojlund discussion. Sorry mate.

Almost every reliable journo out there said we got a flat NO when we asked, and this is is fairly well established from earlier as well he really dont want to sell to a rival. Especially now that he can sell to Bayern , or maybe even PSG or RM.

Yes , the gap is significant, but if Kane isnt an option then its less relevant - because we so badly need a striker that its logical to overpay somewhat if we cant use that money to better use anyway.
 
Not at all.

Nunez scored 26 goals in 28 games and then was signed by Liverpool for 65m.

By the logic you and others are putting forward, every striker would need to be signed before they’ve done anything - and for crazy money.

This simply isn’t the case, and we shouldn’t pretend it is.
Nunez transfer fee is Liverpool’s club record €100m (£85m) and difficulty of scoring in Portuguese league is not the same as in Serie A and he was 22.
 
Probably yeah, it was a massive gamble, plus I don’t really know what Osimhen’s rep was like compared to Rasmus beforehand.

Look, I know feck all about anything. Hopefully he’ll be a tactical marvel that unlocks the way we play, but im sure just as many people are talking themselves into the idea that this isn’t a mad transfer at these amounts as are being over sceptical because we can’t see what scouts do on videos. All transfers are a gamble, and no one ever has an 100% record. So either argument is as valid as the other really, isn’t it?

But if you’d quoted Rasmus Hoijland at £70m at the end of last season, id wager absolutely everyone would’ve laughed at it as obscene, But now we have to consider it seriously and talk ourselves into it because we’re desperate, and that’s kinda our fault IMO, is all.

I get the issue with fee and I share it. But your initial post was fundamentally wrong, Hojlund isn't an obvious target, he is very much the type of targets that you get through scouting. He may fail for a range reasons but it is strange to assume that he is a target because the scouting team is bad or because he was known.

It's fair to have questions about the fee or even have doubts about his level but it's wrong to just reinvent reality because we don't like the fee or the player.
 
i think you'll see this deal get done once Atalanta announce the signing of the kid from Almeria....this deal will end up being probalby €55-60m with another 10m in addons. which is a fair deal for all sides.



THIS would be the smartest move we could make....a proven guy in the league that can lead a line, score goals but doesn't have to be the #1 striker and a quality player to bring off the bench when he doesn't start. Allows us to finally FFS get rid of that french cvnt Martial

I would like to see us do that as well,however will Utd be put off by the fact he wouldn't have played for such a long time
 
Levy looks at Kane as an asset… he’ll sell him to the highest bidder before the deadline if Kane does not sign an extension. It’s that simple.

most of the Caf have no background in finance and don’t look at it through that lens.

The discussion is Hojlund vs Kane. Pointing out that the cost difference isn’t that significant, but the gap in quality is significant is part of the Hojlund discussion. Sorry mate.
Agree with this, even if it’s to United. The chance to get a striker of Kanes quality doesn’t come around often and he’s exactly what need. Was always going to be a long game to sign him which is why I hoped we would sign a younger, cheaper understudy too. Hojlund is understudy quality for a premium price.
 
I believe I can. The discussions are based on rumored / reported bids and wage demands. Or are we just going to ask every Caf member to verify numbers :lol:

Might as well shut down the site mate

If your argument against other posters is their inability to think like a financial analyst then you better have the decency to bring numbers otherwise it's a cheap dig.
 
So who?

Alvarez was the biggest talent in Argentina that every big club knew about and known throughout the world. We just didn't get him because we don't make good deals. You make it sound like City took a random gamble on him and he turned out to be good.

If there was a player like him now, we'd be all over it, but there isn't.

Just because there is a striker that scores goals, doesn't mean he's a great striker that will fit our system. In that case, we can just take our pick. Elye Wahi, Folarin Balogun, Jonathan David, Lacazette, Openda, Ben Yedder, Moffi, Gouiri, Habib Diallo, Lautaro Martinez, Boulaye Dia and more.
Plenty of average strikers score goals, which is why, when scouting a young striker, you don't necessarily look at the goals, but the combination of abilities and characteristics that player has.
For a 20 year old, Højlund has all of it that can potentially be nurtured and making him an elite striker. He has the potential to explode if he can improve these abilities. Most of the players that I listed above are lacking in one aspect or another (or more), but Højlund has it all. He has strength, pace, movement, the natural instincts that Cavani had, acceleration, hold-up play, link-up play, intelligence and more. This is what makes him the ideal target, and not Boulaye Dia because he scored 15 goals, and this is probably what Ten Hag sees in him too.

There is no guarantee that he will knit all this together, and that's okay because that would make him world class, but Ten Hag sees the potential in him and believes he can help him be a great striker.

Another thing people forget when thinking about signings is the mentality and attitude aspect Ten Hag is looking for in his players. Which of his transfers have looked weak mentally, bad attitude or not willing to put in the work? Absolutely none. They're all motivated, hard working, fierce and strong mentally. It would appear Højlund scores high here too.
For alternatives I liked the look of Santiago Gimenez. I’d also take Goncalo Ramos. There’s no point mentioning them though, alternatives have already been mentioned in this thread and they match ETH’s criteria but they’ve all been dismissed, since Hojlund has been elevated to the status of the sole striker capable of fulfilling the role.

My problem with Hojlund isn’t the ability but the price. Paying that much for someone as unproven as he is, especially in our current state, doesn’t make sense.

Anyways it’s clear this deal is happening so might as well warm up to it. I don’t see the point going back and forth anymore. It’s also possible we can strike a deal for a fairer price than what has been reported
 
Agree with this, even if it’s to United. The chance to get a striker of Kanes quality doesn’t come around often and he’s exactly what need. Was always going to be a long game to sign him which is why I hoped we would sign a younger, cheaper understudy too. Hojlund is understudy quality for a premium price.

That's the point that chance to get him this summer just isn't remotely possible,if it was we wouldn't have walked away in June. Will say this until I am blue in the face but our only hope is on a free next summer.
 
I believe I can. The discussions are based on rumored / reported bids and wage demands. Or are we just going to ask every Caf member to verify numbers :lol:

Might as well shut down the site mate

your numbers are a bit dodgy though to say the least
 
For alternatives I liked the look of Santiago Gimenez. I’d also take Goncalo Ramos. There’s no point mentioning them though, alternatives have already been mentioned in this thread and they match ETH’s criteria but they’ve all been dismissed, since Hojlund has been elevated to the status of the sole striker capable of fulfilling the role.

My problem with Hojlund isn’t the ability but the price. Paying that much for someone as unproven as he is, especially in our current state, doesn’t make sense

How much for Gimenez as another striker?
 
He combines qualities that are rear. To be tall, tenacious, quick and strong with decent techniques is not so common. Any striker with these combination will have an edge or two over most defenders. I think he'll be liked by fans same way Cavani was, he is raw though so he has rough edges. I hope he grows into a prolific striker here. We are due one.
 
Of course not, Lewandowski is one of the best strikers of his generation. You can't just pick someone who is technically excellent and expect him to be a great striker.

Osimhen is talked about in the same sentence as Kane, and he has very average technique.

You're overexaggerating regarding Højlund's technique, by the way. He's nowhere near as bad as you make him out to be.
It was you who mentioned a 20 year old Lewabdowski so can’t blame me or others to comparing. Even at that age, it’s night and day to what I’ve seen from Hojlund. Can he learn to be more technical? I’m doubtful.

We simply disagree about on this signing but I’m sure my dissenting views won’t matter too much to you when he signs.
 
Nunez transfer fee is Liverpool’s club record €100m (£85m) and difficulty of scoring in Portuguese league is not the same as in Serie A and he was 22.

It was actually £64m with add ons that it seems quite likely he might not achieve.

And the poster I was replying to was suggesting that all CFs need to bought at this point, before they’ve had a blow up season.

Darwin being 22 and having just had a blow up season and then being sold for that amount is a very recent example of that being complete nonsense.
 
your numbers are a bit dodgy though to say the least

Dodgy is an understatement. Ignoring any bonuses, if we assume that one player is paid 400k and the other 100k, the difference over three years is 45m+, then you have one player that is supposed to cost at least 40m if we assume that both are failures(base fee of 60m for Hojlund and 100m for Kane). Over three years with maybe have 85m between them.
 
It was you who mentioned a 20 year old Lewabdowski so can’t blame me or others to comparing. Even at that age, it’s night and day to what I’ve seen from Hojlund. Can he learn to be more technical? I’m doubtful.

We simply disagree about on this signing but I’m sure my dissenting views won’t matter too much to you when he signs.

I meant it as a response to the part where you said you'd rather we get a striker that is technically excellent.
Lewandowski isn't a great striker because he's technically excellent. He's great because he has everything you need as a striker to be world class.

There probably are some strikers that are technically excellent that we could get, but that wouldn't necessarily make them good strikers.

Plenty of strikers with less than exceptional technique do just fine in PL, such as Watkins and Toney.

Højlund is a technical player, but not close to Lewandowski, Agüero or Benzema. Of course it can be worked on, but he doesn't need to be exceptional to be a success here.
 
Would Love Watkins, he’s also actually earned a move to a bigger PL club which I like with a CF especially.

Toney would be amazing at Utd imo, he’d really thrive on it I reckon, but not many seem to be talking about him due to the January ban I guess - but seems a bit short sighted.

Basically I think either of those would really fit this current Utd side and both have proven themselves in the PL and earned a step up imo.

Just may as well get Brentford’s head scout and take a wild punt on their next striker target… I like the way Brentford work. I assume they were probably watching Højlund too while he was going cheap but he’s chosen very well so far as far as his development goes. I also think he probably would have struggled to make much of an impact at a smaller PL club up to this point.

I wanted us to sign Tony the season they went up. I think he’s a good player for sure.
 
Looking nailed on at this point.

I’m not even sure what we need after this signing but I’m sure we will end up bringing one or two more in. At least we are working fast this summer for a change.
 
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