Putin and Russia in Syria

Jippy said:
Agreed. All the UK media seem to be taking Turkey's warnings claims as gospel.
Now reports of a Russian search helicoptor going down, according to the, er, Express.
Russia are massive airspace raiders too, it must be said.
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While true, they're also the only foreign nation invited by the Iraqi and Syrian governments into their respective nations to bomb terrorist positions. The Turks have been constantly violating airspaces in both Iraq and Syria, and to add insult they're doing it to bomb Kurds who are actively fighting ISIS, thereby empowering the latter.

The West is taking their word for it because they're a NATO ally. Otherwise there's no chance they'd risk shooting down that Russian plane if they couldn't run and hide behind their NATO buddies after.
 
Neutral said:
Vlad isn't happy - he'll just suck it up and move on I think.
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He certainly can't afford to get involved with Turkey or NATO at a time when his economy is in tatters. The foreign neo-imperialism thing is supposed to make him look good at home to cover up domestic problems, but the optic of dead Russian troops will do just the opposite, especially when compounded with all the Russian civilians who died on the airliner. He already knows he's well in over his head, which is why he is now attempting a coalition with the west instead of going it alone.
 
Kaos said:
While true, they're also the only foreign nation invited by the Iraqi and Syrian governments into their respective nations to bomb terrorist positions. The Turks have been constantly violating airspaces in both Iraq and Syria, and to add insult they're doing it to bomb Kurds who are actively fighting ISIS, thereby empowering the latter.

The West is taking their word for it because they're a NATO ally. Otherwise there's no chance they'd risk shooting down that Russian plane if they couldn't run and hide behind their NATO buddies after.
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Nukes aside, Turkey should be able to defend itself against Russia, for at least a few months, without problems.

Of course, in a potential war between them (which I think it has no chance of happening), NATO must intervene, but Turkey has one of the strongest military in the world by itself.
 
Raoul said:
He certainly can't afford to get involved with Turkey or NATO at a time when his economy is in tatters. The foreign neo-imperialism thing is supposed to make him look good at home to cover up domestic problems, but the optic of dead Russian troops will do just the opposite, especially when compounded with all the Russian civilians who died on the airliner. He already knows he's well in over his head, which is why he is now attempting a coalition with the west instead of going it alone.
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Yup, I expect this 'unite against ISIS' talk to last maybe another couple of months and then things will fall apart with so many different and at times conflicting interests at play.
 
Revan said:
Nukes aside, Turkey should be able to defend itself against Russia, for at least a few months, without problems.

Of course, in a potential war between them (which I think it has no chance of happening), NATO must intervene, but Turkey has one of the strongest military in the world by itself.
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That's assuming the Russians actually did invade their airspace and that the Turks weren't BSing like they're prone to doing so.

I think the best way Putin can respond to this is by pouring Kurdish groups with weaponry. It would be lovely if he could give our YPG and Peshmerga boys and girls some anti-air so they can shoot down an F-16 or two the next time ISIS calls for some Turkish air support :angel:
 
Raoul said:
He certainly can't afford to get involved with Turkey or NATO at a time when his economy is in tatters. The foreign neo-imperialism thing is supposed to make him look good at home to cover up domestic problems, but the optic of dead Russian troops will do just the opposite, especially when compounded with all the Russian civilians who died on the airliner. He already knows he's well in over his head, which is why he is now attempting a coalition with the west instead of going it alone.
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Any response will be against the Turk backed rebel groups. If the rumours of oil sales passing through the border are true then those supply routes will be targeted no doubt.

It's a sad state of affairs where these disputes are fought via terrorist groups whilst citizens everywhere are attacked and murdered by other linked terrorist groups.
 
Raoul said:
He certainly can't afford to get involved with Turkey or NATO at a time when his economy is in tatters. The foreign neo-imperialism thing is supposed to make him look good at home to cover up domestic problems, but the optic of dead Russian troops will do just the opposite, especially when compounded with all the Russian civilians who died on the airliner. He already knows he's well in over his head, which is why he is now attempting a coalition with the west instead of going it alone.
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I don't think it was ever his intention to going into the conflict alone. Wasn't he always and constantly pointing out that this problem needs to be tackled jointly?
 
Smores said:
Any response will be against the Turk backed rebel groups. If the rumours of oil sales passing through the border are true then those supply routes will be targeted no doubt.

It's a sad state of affairs where these disputes are fought via terrorist groups while citizens everywhere are attacked and murdered by other terrorist groups.
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Yep, I can see the attacks on moderate rebels increasing after this. Instead of having just one enemy in ISIS, he now has two.
 
Doesn't Putin just have to turn off the gas supply to Turkey this winter and they'll essentially be fecked?
 
Mihajlovic said:
I don't think it was ever his intention to going into the conflict alone. Wasn't he always and constantly pointing out that this problem needs to be tackled jointly?
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Well yes he did say that, although his definition of the problem was that Assad was being weakened by rebels and ISIS, as opposed to taking a more holistic approach of doing what is necessary to stabilize both Iraq and Syria to create long term stability in both places. At least he's more on board with the ISIS problem now.
 
Kaos said:
That's assuming the Russians actually did invade their airspace and that the Turks weren't BSing like they're prone to doing so.

I think the best way Putin can respond to this is by pouring Kurdish groups with weaponry. It would be lovely if he could give our YPG and Peshmerga boys and girls some anti-air so they can shoot down an F-16 or two the next time ISIS calls for some Turkish air support :angel:
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Yep, proxy war is the main type of war nowadays. The big guys kiving kids weapons and putting them to kill each other.

The other option is to make more attacks against Turkmen and Al-Nusra in Syria.
 
Kaos said:
Doesn't Putin just have to turn off the gas supply to Turkey this winter and essentially be fecked?
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He just signed a major gas deal with Turkey to circumvent potential problems selling gas to Europe, who were not interested in the south stream pipeline following his invasion of Crimea. Losing the Turkey deal would be an economic setback, which is why its unlikely the plane issue will amount to much imo.
 
Raoul said:
Bad news all around. On a positive note, at least the Vix will rally today. :)
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Silver linings and all that. Long Vix/short Baltic Dry Shipping index seems the trade of the mo'.
 
Raoul said:
I'll have to look into that. What's the symbol for the latter ?
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Not sure- on hols right now. The Baltic just crapped out on a multi-year low which is indicative of a global recession looming if trade levels are falling so fast. It's a niche, but interesting indicator. Am sure any ETF tracking it would suffer the usual roll yield issues.
 
Very strong words from Putin, essentually accusing the Turkish government of collaborating with ISIS:

“The loss today is a stab in the back, carried out by the accomplices of terrorists. I can’t describe it in any other way.”

“Do they want to make Nato serve ISIS? ... We hope that the international community will find the strength to come together and fight against the common evil.”
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Kaos said:
Very strong words from Putin, essentually accusing the Turkish government of collaborating with ISIS:
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He will say one thing in Public then phone Erdogan to find ways to deconflict and avoid future scenarios like this.
 
Raoul said:
He will say one thing in Public then phone Erdogan to find ways to deconflict and avoid future scenarios like this.
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As is always the case.

Still pretty damning for a major power like Russia to publicly draw a link between Turkey and ISIS, and to be fair someone had to do it. (Well the Syrian government had been making that accusation for some time but no one would take it seriously as you'd expect).
 
Kaos said:
That's assuming the Russians actually did invade their airspace and that the Turks weren't BSing like they're prone to doing so.

I think the best way Putin can respond to this is by pouring Kurdish groups with weaponry. It would be lovely if he could give our YPG and Peshmerga boys and girls some anti-air so they can shoot down an F-16 or two the next time ISIS calls for some Turkish air support :angel:
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So your are in favor of a nation arming groups that would plunge another nation in the area into civil war. Despite all your previous posts condemning other nations for doing the same. As long as it is Putin doing it, it is a good thing right? :rolleyes:
 
JustAFan said:
So your are in favor of a nation arming groups that would plunge another nation in the area into civil war. Despite all your previous posts condemning other nations for doing the same. As long as it is Putin doing it, it is a good thing right? :rolleyes:
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Correct. :)
 
Raoul said:
He just signed a major gas deal with Turkey to circumvent potential problems selling gas to Europe, who were not interested in the south stream pipeline following his invasion of Crimea. Losing the Turkey deal would be an economic setback, which is why its unlikely the plane issue will amount to much imo.
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With so many nations operating in the area and not doing so under one command structure, let alone a common interest, this was going to happen sooner or later.
 
JustAFan said:
So your are in favor of a nation arming groups that would plunge another nation in the area into civil war. Despite all your previous posts condemning other nations for doing the same. As long as it is Putin doing it, it is a good thing right? :rolleyes:
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Funding the Kurds who are a secular group currently fighting ISIS with great effect is different to funding a bunch of Islamist nutters wouldn't you say?
 
Kaos said:
While true, they're also the only foreign nation invited by the Iraqi and Syrian governments into their respective nations to bomb terrorist positions. The Turks have been constantly violating airspaces in both Iraq and Syria, and to add insult they're doing it to bomb Kurds who are actively fighting ISIS, thereby empowering the latter.

The West is taking their word for it because they're a NATO ally. Otherwise there's no chance they'd risk shooting down that Russian plane if they couldn't run and hide behind their NATO buddies after.
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:lol: Are you sure? Then how is it US forces have worked with Iraqi soldiers for the last several years? Are the Kurds and Iraqi military just coincidentally getting coordinated close air support in their operations?

The Russians are bombing rebels who are actively fighting ISIS...
 
Raoul said:
He just signed a major gas deal with Turkey to circumvent potential problems selling gas to Europe, who were not interested in the south stream pipeline following his invasion of Crimea. Losing the Turkey deal would be an economic setback, which is why its unlikely the plane issue will amount to much imo.
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But they're out of recession, don't you know! At least according to the economy minister who didn't provide any figures backing up the claim.
 
Sir Matt said:
:lol: Are you sure? Then how is it US forces have worked with Iraqi soldiers for the last several years? Are the Kurds and Iraqi military just coincidentally getting coordinated close air support in their operations?

The Russians are bombing rebels who are actively fighting ISIS...
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They weren't invited, they knocked at the door well dressed and with a bottle of Champagne.
 
Kaos said:
Very strong words from Putin, essentually accusing the Turkish government of collaborating with ISIS:
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And of course he'd never collaborate with groups who blow up civilian airliners.
 
Erdogan did do business with ISIS .esp in in the first year

People will get more clear insights when they do realize that Erdogan and his party are Muslim brotherhood members. In fact, any major Islamic organization worldwide is a Brotherhood affiliate.
 
Expected I suppose...

Washington (AFP) - The US military on Tuesday backed up Turkey's claim that Turkish pilots had warned a Russian jet 10 times -- but failed to get a response -- before shooting it down.

"We were able to hear everything that was going on, these (communications) were on open channels," military spokesman Colonel Steve Warren said.

Asked if he could confirm reports 10 warnings were issued by Turkish pilots without response, Warren said: "I can confirm that, yes." He added it was not immediately clear on which side of the Turkish-Syrian border the Russian jet had been flying.
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