Putin and Russia in Syria

Forget it, I should not have gotten into the discussion, simply a lot of your posts seem ambiguous to me, but probably I am biased for being practising catholic. Not a big fan of Saudi Arabia
Which bit is ambiguous?

2cents mentioned that Al Nusra have beheaded people in Syria (in the civil war).

I said is a beheading any more or less evil than a napalm attack or a sarin gas attack.

You (I think) thought I was referring to Saudi Arabia? When I was referring to Al Nusra.
 
This from just four days ago - Gulf Arabs 'stepping up' arms supplies to Syrian rebels http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-34479929

The pertinent bit: "The well-placed official...said those groups being supplied did not include either Islamic State (IS) or al-Nusra Front, both of which are proscribed terrorist organisations. Instead, he said the weapons would go to three rebel alliances - Jaish al-Fatah (Army of Conquest), the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and the Southern Front."

And this is exactly how they are hood-winking the world. They claim they are not supporting Jabhat al-Nusra, however they are supporting Jaysh al-Fatah - which is a jihadist coalition that happens to be led by Jabhat al-Nusra and Ahrar al-Sham!

I'm trying to find a non BBC source for this. All of the Eastern outlets quote and copy/paste the BBC article. Can you find anything?
 
I'm trying to find a non BBC source for this. All of the Eastern outlets quote and copy/paste the BBC article. Can you find anything?

It's just one link, evidence for the pile. Back in April or May, there was a major gathering in Istanbul of rebel leaders and Saudi, Qatari and Turkish officials where a new strategy was decided upon. Google will throw up plenty of links for you. Following that meeting, Jaysh al-Fatah announced itself, and proceeded to conquer Idlib Province over the summer.

Here's a subsequent report from Al-Ahram - http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/News/12392/21/Gulf-allies-and-‘Army-of-Conquest’.aspx

The pertinent bit: "A source in the Saudi royal family involved in defence and security matters confirmed for this article the existence of the new military coalition and the Saudi and Qatari assistance to it. The source said that the coalition, called the “Army of Conquest,” is a temporary one in the Idlib region, where Jabhat Al-Nusra and Ahrar Al-Sham represent 90 per cent of the troops.

The Saudis and Qataris are to provide funding for 40 per cent of the coalition’s needs, according to the source, while the coalition itself takes care of the remainder, mainly by capturing material."


If the Saudis are not supporting the Jaysh al-Fatah coalition, their success is a hell of a coincidence.
 
This isn't exclusive. He has said time and time again that he won't go back until the Assad regime is gone. He left due to Assad snr.

That's beside the point. This guy is someone western mass media has been constantly using as the main source of information on things happening on the ground in Syria and he hasn't even been there since the year 2000.
 
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That's beside the point. This guy is someone western media has been constantly using as the main source of information on things happening on the ground in Syria and he hasn't even been there since the year 2000.

How about the views of a Syrian who is actually there now ?

Your thoughts on Russian troops in Syria ?

syrian_scholes said:
It's a fecking joke, they kept vetoing any intervention and now they send their troops, complete nonsense.

....I can't understand some of you here, the regime killed many of my friends and my friends family members, there's almost no sunni person in Syria who didn't have someone close to them killed by the regime, and yet some of you think syrian people should be okay with the regime staying, yes ISIS are really bad but the regime is worse, I know I said it a million times but it still hurt to this day that when we had a completely peacefull protest in our college that Alawitie students were hitting people(including myself) with electric sticks, one of whom was taking the same class as me and you just think we, and I mean sunni Syrians btw, should overlook everything and accept the regime staying.
 
That's beside the point. This guy is someone western mass media has been constantly using as the main source of information on things happening on the ground in Syria and he hasn't even been there since the year 2000.
Did you read the article you posted? He's admitted he hasn't been there, but he has a plethora of sources based in Syria.
 
Did you read the article you posted? He's admitted he hasn't been there, but he has a plethora of sources based in Syria.

Doesn't explain why he's lying about Russian airstrikes killing 30 civilians. At 03:32.

 
Doesn't explain why he's lying about Russian airstrikes killing 30 civilians. At 03:32.



https://www.hrw.org/news/2015/10/09/syria-apparent-russian-airstrikes-kill-civilians

Syria: Apparent Russian Airstrikes Kill Civilians

Residents Say No Military Target Near Where 17 Died

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(New York) – Apparent Russian airstrikes on Talbiseh in northern Homs that killed at least 17 civilians should be investigated for possible violations of the laws of war. Two local media activists and two first responders said that the September 30, 2015 strikes hit a residential part of town at a distance from any apparent military targets and that no combatants were killed in the strike.

Russia announced the beginning of its airstrikes in Syria on September 30.

In addition to the strike on Talbiseh, local groups operating in northern Homs said that jets that they believed were Russian conducted strikes on the neighboring towns of Za`faraneh and Rastan, killing another reported 17 civilians. Northern Homs is controlled by various armed groups opposed to the government, including some groups affiliated with al-Nusra Front. Human Rights Watch is still gathering information about these two additional strikes. According to a report by Russia 24, a state-owned news channel, Talbiseh was one of several towns in Homs struck by Russian forces on September 30.

Now Syrian civilians may have to worry about Russian attacks even when they are in neighborhoods without apparent military targets. Russia’s priority should be to protect civilians in Syria and take all possible precautions to avoid harming them.
Nadim Houry
Deputy Middle East Director


“Now Syrian civilians may have to worry about Russian attacks even when they are in neighborhoods without apparent military targets,” said Nadim Houry, deputy Middle East director. “Russia’s priority should be to protect civilians in Syria and take all possible precautions to avoid harming them.”
Local residents told Human Rights Watch that airstrikes hit the town of Talbiseh at about 10:30 a.m. on the day the Russians announced their offensive. A local teacher said a school and a post office were struck, killing civilians and causing severe damage. The post office building was not being used as a post office, but for baking and distributing bread in an area where the conflict has caused a food shortage, the local residents said.

Four local activists and first responders said that there were no military targets – such as fighters, bases, or weapons stocks – near the targeted area and that the closest front line was at least two kilometers away.

The three-story post office building was completely destroyed, residents said. Mostafa Wakeel, the head of the committee organizing the bread production, died in the strike.

Two first responders said that 17 civilians were killed, including at least 3 children and 4 women, and 72 wounded. They provided Human Rights Watch with a list of the dead. Human Rights Watch also reviewed videos taken by local activists showing four bodies in the aftermath of the attack.

“There were a lot of corpses,” said the head of Homs Civil Defense, Abdel Men`em Sateef:

The post office was completely destroyed. There were many victims, people dead. We tried to first help the victims who were still alive, the ones we could save. I saw a leg, just a leg. A man of 50 was wandering around asking about his son. One of our colleagues from the civil defense died while rescuing the victims. I personally carried nine bodies.

The Syria Civil Defense in Homs identified the rescuer who died as Abdul Lateef Duhaik, 18.

Russian officials did not issue any specific comments regarding the strike on Talbiseh. During a media briefing about the results of the first day of air operations, the official representative of the Russian Defense Ministry said, “In the vicinity of Talbiseh, the headquarters of terrorist groups of the same organization [ISIS] and the ammunition depot were destroyed by SU-24 hits.”

Two local activists told Human Rights Watch that they were certain that the strikes that killed civilians in Talbiseh were carried out by Russian planes. They said that the planes launched their weapons from higher altitudes than Syrian planes usually do and that they had been told by spotters who monitor communications that they heard Russian being used in communications with the cockpit of the jets flying over the area.

Under the laws of war all parties to armed conflicts are required to distinguish at all times between combatants and civilians and direct attacks only at combatants. Indiscriminate attacks are prohibited. All parties must take all feasible precautions to avoid, and minimize, loss of civilian life and injury to civilians.

The strikes on Talbiseh are not the only reported Russian strikes that have killed civilians in Northern Homs on September 30. Local media activists and first responders also said that airstrikes hit the neighboring town of Za`faraneh at about 8:30 a.m. The local Syria Civil Defense reported that the Za`faraneh airstrikes killed 8 civilians and injured 36.

Airstrikes locally believed to be Russian also hit the town of Rastan in northern Homs, killing nine civilians according to the local Syria Civil Defense. Human Rights Watch is still conducting inquiries about these two attacks.

The Russian authorities should investigate credible allegations of violations of the laws of war and publish their findings, Human Rights Watch said. Russia should also take all feasible precautions to minimize harm to civilians in future attacks.

“Reports of civilian casualties in its first strikes raise concerns that Russia is not taking sufficient precautions to avoid civilian casualties in Syria,” Houry said. “After enduring so much, the last thing Syrians need would be more indiscriminate attacks from the air.”
 
Doesn't explain why he's lying about Russian airstrikes killing 30 civilians. At 03:32.


I just watched this from 3.32. He's not lying. The Arabic version says Assad regime instead of Russian war planes (the English version says the same). It makes no mention of the 30 civilians figure, so I'm not entirely sure what you're getting at.

These aren't facts. "Airstrikes locally believed to be Russian"."Human Rights Watch is still conducting inquiries about these two attacks."

There's a v strong probability they are Russian. Tbh, it'll be shown to be Russian in a couple of days anyway.
 
You mean, like CNN?

CNN isn't a government run and funded propaganda channel. Its a private corporation, one among many. RT is funded by the Russian government to advance Putin's policies and influence global audiences. Sadly Russia hasn't evolved much since the Soviet Union days in this regard.
 
I just watched this from 3.32. He's not lying. The Arabic version says Assad regime instead of Russian war planes (the English version says the same). It makes no mention of the 30 civilians figure, so I'm not entirely sure what you're getting at.



There's a v strong probability they are Russian. Tbh, it'll be shown to be Russian in a couple of days anyway.

The Russian government doesn't do well with truth or criticism, which is why it severely limits its own domestic press unless of course they are pro-Putin, in which case they can do as they please. This attack on the Observatory guy is just an information operation for them to control the narrative, instead of have it be defined by civil society and the media. Happens to work inside Russia where no one can fight back, but will fail spectacularly outside where the media and civil society can transparently report what they see.
 
CNN isn't a government run and funded propaganda channel. Its a private corporation, one among many. RT is funded by the Russian government to advance Putin's policies and influence global audiences. Sadly Russia hasn't evolved much since the Soviet Union days in this regard.

Just because they're not government funded doesn't mean they're not being used as a propaganda tool.
 
Just because they're not government funded doesn't mean they're not being used as a propaganda tool.

You would have to live in a fanatical, jingoistic dictatorship to perceive CNN as propaganda. RT on the other hand is specifically funded and operated as a tool to influence international audiences towards Russian policy. They are light years apart.
 
The Russian government doesn't do well with truth or criticism, which is why it severely limits its own domestic press unless of course they are pro-Putin, in which case they can do as they please. This attack on the Observatory guy is just an information operation for them to control the narrative, instead of have it be defined by civil society and the media. Happens to work inside Russia where no one can fight back, but will fail spectacularly outside where the media and civil society can transparently report what they see.

There's a problem with a freedom of speech in the Russian mass media, but it's not as bad as you're trying to present. Basically, the system is: the smaller your audience is, the more freedom you've got. The biggest TV channels are to a large degree controlled by the government but there are plenty of smaller ones that are not a re quite critical of Putin and his politics.
 
There's a problem with a freedom of speech in the Russian mass media, but it's not as bad as you're trying to present. Basically, the system is: the smaller your audience is, the more freedom you've got. The biggest TV channels are to a large degree controlled by the government but there are plenty of smaller ones that are not a re quite critical of Putin and his politics.

So basically all the media, including much of social media is controlled by Putin. That can't be a very good thing in terms of freedom of information, debate, or the free exchange of ideas.
 
You would have to live in a fanatical, jingoistic dictatorship to perceive CNN as propaganda. RT on the other hand is specifically funded and operated as a tool to influence international audiences towards Russian policy. They are light years apart.

So when they say "unnamed sources from the US government told us that four Russian missiles ended up in Iran" and before you know it, it's on every major news network out there, it's not being used as a propaganda tool?
 
So when they say "unnamed sources from the US government told us that four Russian missiles ended up in Iran" and before you know it, it's on every major news network out there, it's not being used as a propaganda tool?

Sources can be unnamed when the information is being provided to a journalist. Its a standard protocol in journalism and is commonly used when a journalist wants to keep a source for future use without getting him/her in trouble because they weren't authorized to speak to the media.
 
So basically all the media, including much of social media is controlled by Putin. That can't be a very good thing in terms of freedom of information, debate, or the free exchange of ideas.

I never said it was good. In fact, this is one of the things I dislike about Putin's regime.
 
Sources can be unnamed when the information is being provided to a journalist. Its a standard protocol in journalism and is commonly used when a journalist wants to keep a source for future use without getting him/her in trouble because they weren't authorized to speak to the media.

Well, then the journalist should have enough integrity to admit afterwards that the information provided was wrong. We're talking about war here, which is a very serious issue, so whether you made it all up or your sources used you for propaganda purposes, it's still the same result.
 
Well, then the journalist should have enough integrity to admit afterwards that the information provided was wrong. We're talking about war here, which is a very serious issue, so whether you made it all up or your sources used you for propaganda purposes, it's still the same result.

I'm sure that in a western context at least, if the information was proven not accurate, the news outlet would print a retraction.
 
So the Russians are hitting targets in villages and towns.... Only a matter of time before there is collateral damage right?

Its probably already happened as it would be unrealistic to presume an air war would not also kill a percentage of women, children, and non-combatants. There's not much media or civil society in these areas to report it, so we may not know for a while since neither the Russians nor Assad are in any way incentivized to publicize information that doesn't make them look good.
 
I'm sure that in a western context at least, if the information was proven not accurate, the news outlet would print a retraction.

How common is it? I think it only happens when they're threatened with a lawsuit and they know they have to do it.
 
How common is it? I think it only happens when they're threatened with a lawsuit and they know they have to do it.

It happens, for example when Lara Logan of 60 Minutes got her Benghazi story wrong, there was a public apology. There are other numerous cases when journalists have retracted/apologized once they discovered information they received from a source was incorrect. When appropriate, news organizations are incentivized to do this in order to maintain credibility with their audiences.
 
Its probably already happened as it would be unrealistic to presume an air war would not also kill a percentage of women, children, and non-combatants. There's not much media or civil society in these areas to report it, so we may not know for a while since neither the Russians nor Assad are in any way incentivized to publicize information that doesn't make them look good.

What would be a realistic ratio of non-combatants to combatants under these circumstances? Any idea how well the Russians are doing compared with you lot?
 
What would be a realistic ratio of non-combatants to combatants under these circumstances? Any idea how well the Russians are doing compared with you lot?

It depends what their ROE are. If they are authorized to shoot into areas where civilians are then the numbers will obviously go up, and in most instances not be reported due to lack of journalists or civil society organizations on the ground. From what I understand they are taking targeting instructions from the Assad regime, who are then sending in their ground elements to mop up after the air strikes. The fact that the regime has indiscriminately used barrel bombs to deal with rebels in the past, doesn't give me much confidence that they would instruct the Russians to mind their civilian casualties.
 
It depends what their ROE are. If they are authorized to shoot into areas where civilians are then the numbers will obviously go up, and in most instances not be reported due to lack of journalists or civil society organizations on the ground. From what I understand they are taking targeting instructions from the Assad regime, who are then sending their ground elements to mop up after the air strikes. The fact that the regime has indiscriminately used barrel bombs to deal with rebels in the past, doesn't give me much confidence that they would instruct the Russians to mind their civilian casualties.

I doubt there are any credible reports regarding civilian casualties from your adventures in Syria, Assad coordinates or not. Do you reckon US bombings went better?
 
I doubt there are any credible reports regarding civilian casualties from your adventures in Syria, Assad coordinates or not. Do you reckon US bombings went better?

I do actually. First the US is much more experienced at doing this, as they have been at it for decades since the original Gulf War; have better technology and better trained and more experienced pilots, and yet they still make mistakes (see Kunduz). The US generally have a very tight ROE in terms of avoiding populated areas and going after softer targets like convoys, and using intelligence to hit safe houses and other more isolated locations. I'm sure the Russians are quite capable in terms of their pilots and planes, but you have to remember they are still novices in terms of experience and intelligence capabilities, and as an authoritarian state, have a lesser moral impetus to avoid civilian casualties.
 
I do actually. First the US is much more experienced at doing this, as they have been at it for decades since the original Gulf War; have better technology and better trained and more experienced pilots, and yet they still make mistakes (see Kunduz). The US generally have a very tight ROE in terms of avoiding populated areas and going after softer targets like convoys, and using intelligence to hit safe houses and other more isolated locations. I'm sure the Russians are quite capable in terms of their pilots and planes, but you have to remember they are still novices in terms of experience and intelligence capabilities, and as an authoritarian state, have a lesser moral impetus to avoid civilian casualties.

Any numbers from credible sources on the ground?
 
Condemning Russian Intervention: Rebel Unity?
Though many rebel groups are united in sentiment in their condemnation of the Russian intervention in Syria, actual unity remains a remote prospect – even if closer military cooperation can be expected

In a joint statement released on 5 October, 41 Syrian rebel factions condemned the “Russian military aggression against the Syrian people,” describing it as a “genuine occupation of the land even if some sides claim that it was done on official request from the Assad regime.” The statement added that the Russian airstrikes in Homs province, which left “approximately 50 martyrs from the civilians,” should be considered Russia’s first war crime in Syria. The statement went on to describe “any forces occupying the land of our beloved homeland” as “legitimate targets,” and repeated the standard mantra of commitment to Syria’s territorial unity, opposing any sort of “partition project,” while concluding with a call on “all armed revolutionary factions” to “unite ranks” and put aside differences.

The language of the statement, especially in referring to Syria as watanina al-habib (Arabic for “our beloved homeland”), excludes groups with transnational jihadist agendas. The signatories include familiar mainstream groups whose vision is confined to the national framework, such as Jaish al-Islam (based primarily in Damascus), Ahrar al-Sham (arguably the single most powerful rebel group in Syria), the Saudi-backed quietist Salafi coalition known as the Authenticity and Development Front and the southern FSA Yarmouk Army. But does this statement actually represent greater unity among these factions? Or will the Russian intervention push rebels toward jihadi factions like Syria’s al-Qaida affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra – as is widely feared?

The answer is that the prospect for real mergers among these signatories is marginal. Whatever impressions of political unity dealings in Turkey and joint online statements might convey, groups on the ground are localized and tend to be divided. The case of Jabhat al-Shamiyya, one of the signatories to the statement, is emblematic of the problem.

Jabhat al-Shamiyya was originally conceived at the end of 2014 as a merger of five major Aleppo rebel coalitions – the Islamic Front in Aleppo, the Fastaqim Kama Umirt grouping, the Authenticity and Development Front, Jaish al-Mujahideen and the Nour al-Din al-Zinki Movement. However, the alliance eventually dissolved. It recently reformed, albeit with none of the original member components remaining whole. The Islamic Front in Aleppo is really just Ahrar al-Sham. Today Jabhat al-Shamiyya is primarily composed of ex-Islamic Front affiliates in the north Aleppo countryside and Aleppo city, and is playing the main role in resisting a push by Islamic State toward the towns of Marea and Azaz on the city’s northern outskirts. All of the aforementioned individual groups are separate signatories to the statement. Indeed, even in the face of other existential threats like ISIS, actual unity has been elusive. Further south, the primary concern of the powerful and authoritarian Jaish al-Islam is to consolidate its influence at the expense of other factions, not to engage in mergers with compromises in power-sharing under a new structure.

In fact, the main mergers that have taken place recently are among jihadi factions, as ostensibly ‘third-way’ groups have increasingly decided to throw in their lot with Jabhat al-Nusra, two cases being Jaish al-Muhajireen wa al-Ansar – once linked to the Caucasus Emirate under the Caucasian leadership of Salah ad-Din al-Shishani, but now a primarily Syrian and Arab group led by a Saudi – and Katibat al-Tawhid wa al-Jihad, which is an Uzbek jihadi group that has always had close relations with Jabhat al-Nusra. Even so, it would be sensationalist to presume that amid all the different factions, the jihadists are suddenly going to gain majority support.

Yes, the appeal of the jihadist narrative has been undeniably bolstered of late, particularly with Russian talk of a “holy war” that has given energy to narratives of a new Crusader war on Islam, but instead of actual mergers and large swellings of ranks, one should think of much closer military cooperation between factions the West wants to support and Islamists and jihadists more generally. Already one can see hints of this development in the widespread praise for CIA-backed FSA factions in the north that have used their U.S.-supplied TOW missiles to help push back against the recent ground offensive led by the Assad government and backed by Russian air power to the north of Hama city. This comes as part of new joint operations in the north Hama countryside involving coordination between these factions and jihadists like Jabhat al-Nusra and Jund al-Aqsa. A similar joint operation was announced earlier this month in the rebel enclaves of the northern Homs countryside, another target of Russian airstrikes.

From a Western perspective, the overall trend could be problematic if the goal is to cultivate supported factions as viable separate forces not working with jihadists. Such deepened cooperation could end up further enabling jihadists, similar to the way cooperation between Ahrar al-Sham and Jabhat al-Nusra has significantly empowered the latter in Idlib province, especially with the Jaish al-Fatah coalition that helped drive out government forces from all major localities in the province.

Distancing favored factions from those deemed too radical is becoming much harder to justify, and the biggest loser in the current state of play is undoubtedly the West since there seems to be no decisive response to the Russian intervention beyond some pro forma words of condemnation. Western credibility among the wider Syrian opposition will be further eroded, and the Gulf States and Turkey will take matters further into their own hands. Western influence has surely reached an all-time low.

http://www.syriadeeply.org/op-eds/2015/10/8465/condemning-russian-intervention-rebel-unity/
 
I don't think there are hard numbers in either case, given the environment on the ground. I was referring to methods, experience, and ROE for both sides.

Do your lot give warning calls, or throw leaflets prior to the air strikes?
 
I do actually. First the US is much more experienced at doing this, as they have been at it for decades since the original Gulf War; have better technology and better trained and more experienced pilots, and yet they still make mistakes (see Kunduz). The US generally have a very tight ROE in terms of avoiding populated areas and going after softer targets like convoys, and using intelligence to hit safe houses and other more isolated locations. I'm sure the Russians are quite capable in terms of their pilots and planes, but you have to remember they are still novices in terms of experience and intelligence capabilities, and as an authoritarian state, have a lesser moral impetus to avoid civilian casualties.
Like in Fallujah?