We've been very good of late? A bit lucky to win rather than draw at Villa but otherwise well worthy of our points?
PL Top 4 race
- Thread starter Yorkeontop
- Start date
We've been very good of late? A bit lucky to win rather than draw at Villa but otherwise well worthy of our points?
Probably due to Man. City away featuring imminently on the horizon for you.
We win our next two and you lose to Man. City and gap will be back to 8 points with a vastly superior GD in our favour. Spurs aren't playing next weekend but then have Palace at home.
Of course though there are always shock results especially against teams battling relegation so Palace or Luton get even a draw and you get a "shock" result at Man. City and that percentage will be shooting up in your favour considerably more.
No way would I say we've been very good. Good results but the performances have been poor.
West Ham has been the only good performance.
Moments FC 97th minute winner against Wolves.
Moments FC 86th minute winner against Villa.
Dirty, sloppy win against Luton.
We were very good v Wolves.
Deserved winners v Luton and West Ham.
Not sure we'll agree here so can leave it there.
Same. Also, our GD is +1 after 25 games. Terrible.
On paper, our schedule until the end of season doesn't look bad. But our performances don't fill you with confidence. Also players like Martinez, Shaw getting injured all the time decreases our chances for top 4/5. To me it seems like an outside chance, similar to 21/22 (hopefully with a different outcome this time though).
If you only look at the results and not the performances, sure. We have absolutely no control over games and concede a lot of chances.
42% possession against luton, 44% against Villa, 51% against West Ham, 47% against Wolves, 36% against Spurs. We've conceded 7 goals in those 5 games too.
Genuinely, that’s a tough run of fixtures. Is there any team who have beaten and played well against all those sides? Looking at that again it’s 3 away games in last four?!
But you’re kind of assuming here that we want high possession stats? It seems pretty clear the gamble ETH is taking is our best threat is in transition and our best hope of making top 4 is by playing as we have done for a while now. Maybe it’s not a gamble and that’s all he can coach. Either way it’s how we play and it’s started to work.
More important we created a shit load today. That’s now not in isolation, we’re doing it weekly. Should have been about 5-2.
Again a bit results-oriented to even consider that. West Ham had 22 shots to our 12. They had 8 corners to our 5. Possession 51/49.
For me to have confidence in this team, I'd like to see us be able to establish some sort of dominance on the ball and attempts when we're playing at home against mid-table fodder. But our fans have very low standards for what they'll accept from this team.
Well, when we're losing games we can't say "how shit we are in possession is the reason results are bad", and then when we scrape a few close wins then say "how shit we are in possession is the reason results are good".
At the end of the day, good teams establish superiority on the ball. Good teams control games. We do not control games, the more cheap losses of possession the more chances you give the opposition. And I don't go into any game with confidence for that reason, at 2-0 up against Wolves and Luton we still couldn't relax because we know this team cannot keep hold of the ball when they need to, and we proceed to almost throw away those games.
Liverpool are a far better team in attacking transitions than we are but it doesn't mean they purposely give the ball away every time they get it, they're just better on the ball than we are.
Are you concerned if you go far in Europe you'll run out of steam in the league?
Over the 90 minutes the performances haven’t been great…
But in all the games recently United have had very good spells where I’d be confident they can score against anyone.
The same back four can’t stay fit for 2 games in a row which has killed United all season, but there is feck all EtH can do about that.
Lets try to catch Spurs/Villa and hope one of them gets the jitters.
But in all the games recently United have had very good spells where I’d be confident they can score against anyone.
The same back four can’t stay fit for 2 games in a row which has killed United all season, but there is feck all EtH can do about that.
Lets try to catch Spurs/Villa and hope one of them gets the jitters.
Depends who we play. Some good teams left in the Conference but it's not exactly Real Madrid away. Our results have generally been fine this season after playing on a Thursday.
Some of our harder games left are after Europa aswell so we'd struggle to pick up wins in a few of those games even if we had a full week to prepare.
First leg of last 16 tie we play Spurs on the following Sunday so I do get the feeling we'll put a mix and match team out for the first leg and rest likes of Watkins, Pau and Luiz.
I don’t really get what you’re trying to say?
I think we are all aware Pool are a better team than us in those aspects. I also think we all know we don’t really control games. I’ve wanted us to play a more controlled style for ages but we’re not really trying to, so it’s kind of a weird stick to beat ETH with unless it’s not working. Since the injuries have eased I think we’re like 5 wins from 5 including the cup, with 4 of them being away games.
But you still have to go to the Etihad as well? I just don’t buy it, especially when the two teams above us have yet to play each other while we have that out of the way.
We were miles behind a few weeks ago and now it’s 5 points, it’s not as if we’re all starting from scratch tomorrow
I’d love to see the science of how it came to 10 percent
Disagree with the point about EtH not having fit defenders not being his fault. We clearly needed a CB in the summer which was ignored and money wasted on Mount, a player who was injured most of last season and so far most of this season.
And now with an unfit Shaw and no return of Malacia we decide to cancel Regillion’s loan early? Who makes these decisions?
A win is a win, however it comes. After the first half of the season I doubt we should care very much as long as we make the top 4/5
You should certainly be higher than 10% but that's the thing, we win our next two, you lose at Man. City and it's back to 8 points with only 10 games left so it's unlikely but still possible, probably should be 30-40% really.
As it stands aswell 4th is only in play for CL so if 5th opens up that would boost the percentage estimate significantly aswell so check back on that in May when the european finalists are known....
I'm feeling a lot more confident we can do it, providing our injury situation doesn't get worse. Our attack is starting to click a bit more- still not great but way better than earlier this season- and hopefully Shaw isn't out for too long.
Spurs have a pretty horrible set of fixtures in April/early May too: Newcastle, City, Arsenal and Liverpool all in succession
Spurs have a pretty horrible set of fixtures in April/early May too: Newcastle, City, Arsenal and Liverpool all in succession
Just checked Paddy Power and we’re 5/1. It’s bonkers.
It feels like they’re trying to cling onto the doom and gloom narrative even though we’re winning. A win v Fulham and it’s 6 (?) I think in a row so it’s not as if we can’t go on a run, we’ve shown we can.
Anyway, I do think it’ll be top 5 and I do think your injuries will kill the end to your season but I don’t see Spurs finishing above either of us so it’s a bit moot.
If you told me 3-4 weeks ago, we'd be so close to Villa and Spurs, I wouldn't have believed you. Credit to the team, I didn't think they had it in them. Hopefully we can carry on getting results, although I really hope performances will also follow. With our momentum, I see no reason why we can't get fourth but realistically fifth should be enough for UCL football.
Yep but would be 11 games not 10, 9 point gap given the the goal difference.
Slightly better than 10% sounds about right, 5/1 available at bookies (16.7%).
Looking forward to it!
Only certainty is they'll be loads of twists and we'll drop points in games we're expected to win and also get points where we're written off, same for Man. United and Spurs.
If we win against Fulham it’ll be 5 wins in a row in the league, 6 wins in a row in all competitions. We’re currently on a 7 game unbeaten streak in all competitions, consisting of all the games we’ve played so far in 2024, which I think is our longest unbeaten run under ten Hag.
Is it though.
Opta and the bookies seem to have noticed that we are quite shit at football, and didn't let a few ugly scraped late wins change their mind.
Hope you cleaned up.
And just like that, its over
What's the criteria for Conference League qualification? Is it possible we can fall into that?
We *should* go on and get 70 + points now. Needs just 6 wins from our last 12 to reach 70 points and we'll draw a game or two in the run in I'm sure.
Lose at Man. City and it would be 9 wins from last 11 needed to get 71 points so can't really see that when you've got likes of Arsenal and Liverpool and games like Chelsea away still left.
Spurs have a very tricky away run though so that might still be a chance if 5th becomes active for CL.
This reminds me of two seasons back under Rangnick. Think you'd beaten Leeds and a few others so confidence was building and then you threw in a 0-0 with Watford at home and that basically ended everything.
Strangely enough you had Man. City away after that match aswell.
Lose at Man. City and it would be 9 wins from last 11 needed to get 71 points so can't really see that when you've got likes of Arsenal and Liverpool and games like Chelsea away still left.
Spurs have a very tricky away run though so that might still be a chance if 5th becomes active for CL.
This reminds me of two seasons back under Rangnick. Think you'd beaten Leeds and a few others so confidence was building and then you threw in a 0-0 with Watford at home and that basically ended everything.
Strangely enough you had Man. City away after that match aswell.
7th.
Or even 6th if Chelsea win tomorrow and don't finish top 6 (I think). Some talk they won't want to enter it though as it would impact on their FFP considerably.
Villa have it in the bag.. 5th might still be up for grabs if Spurs do a spurs.. but we have City soon and it doesnt look like we have enough to get 5th either..
Even before this game it was unlikely we'd finish above Villa and Spurs and this loss makes it even more difficult. We're not good enough this season and don't deserve to finish in CL places anyway.
We have City next in the league, whilst Villa have Luton and Spurs have Palace. Being potentially 11 behind Villa and 6 (with a game in hand) behind Spurs is too great of an ask.
Yeah it'll be a 2019/2022 year in terms of being far from CL places imo. Can see players totally giving up come April as it happened before.
I agree, I do also think ten Hag will be sacked if we don't get top 4.
When we inevitably lose tomorrow at Etihad, our chances for top 4 finish will be basically dead. Which is kinda good as I'll be able to watch games without stress and mostly to watch those 3 young players in Mainoo, Garnacho and Hojlund.
So top 4 is over. Lose tomorrow and does Eth get the sack?
Probably not. They'll keep him until season's finished to choose his replacement. This season is written off imo after Fulham loss.
He should and after all the talk let's see if Ratcliffe also walks the walk