PL Top 4 race

United are not in this race at all but...

April for Spurs looks brutal, they play Newcastle > City > Arsenal > Liverpool

They will pick up some points be that could be a huge advantage for anyone chasing them around that time.
 
Maybe it might be best to hope for a Villa win tomorrow and trying getting 5th and sneaking into the champions league that way.

We're three points behind spurs who have two games in hand but they some brutal fixtures to come.
 
Irwin99 said:
Maybe it might be best to hope for a Villa win tomorrow and trying getting 5th and sneaking into the champions league that way.

We're three points behind spurs who have two games in hand but they some brutal fixtures to come.
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I doubt that's going to work now, apparently the other countries looking to get the 5th champions league spot have a much higher chance now than England does. It's going to be just top 4 I think.
 
sepulturite said:
I doubt that's going to work now, apparently the other countries looking to get the 5th champions league spot have a much higher chance now than England does. It's going to be just top 4 I think.
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This is not accurate. Italy should end the season first but England (despite last Thursday not going very well) is still favourite to catch Germany. And of course we have a good shot at this 5th spot. Villa can give us a boost tomorrow.

 
Pintu said:
This is not accurate. Italy should end the season first but England (despite last Thursday not going very well) is still favourite to catch Germany. And of course we have a good shot at this 5th spot. Villa can give us a boost tomorrow.

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Oh that's good news then!
 
Pintu said:
This is not accurate. Italy should end the season first but England (despite last Thursday not going very well) is still favourite to catch Germany. And of course we have a good shot at this 5th spot. Villa can give us a boost tomorrow.

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West ham beating Freiburg is important
 
I guess it's over now.

9 points behind 4th (providing spurs win their game in hand)

8 points behind 5th.
 
Ayoba said:
I guess it's over now.

9 points behind 4th (providing spurs win their game in hand)

8 points behind 5th.
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There's no guarantees any of these sides in this race win any game tbh. That's why we are all scrapping for 4th/5th/6th.
 
Ayoba said:
I guess it's over now.

9 points behind 4th (providing spurs win their game in hand)

8 points behind 5th.
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Villa and Spurs both have lots of tricky fixtures coming up.
It's not impossible yet.

Spurs have Newcastle a, City h, Arsenal h and Liverpool a in a row in May.

They could get zero points from those 4 games.
 
8 points is nothing. Couple of bad games and all of a sudden you're one result away from them.
 
Ayoba said:
I guess it's over now.

9 points behind 4th (providing spurs win their game in hand)

8 points behind 5th.
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Effectively 10 and 9 with our ridiculously bad goal difference. And only 10 games left.

It had long gone.
 
Leftback99 said:
You're forgetting that we're terrible.
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You can be terrible and still compete for 4th/5th. It's all relative.

It's the nature of the race. We're experienced enough in it by now given the last 10 years.
 
Ayoba said:
I guess it's over now.

9 points behind 4th (providing spurs win their game in hand)

8 points behind 5th.
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It's been over for a while now. Spurs and Villa have been a 2 point per game team all season, and play like it for the most part... United are not a 2 point per game team the way we play, and even after half a season, we basically needed to go on a 90 point season pace for half a season to make up that gap. To get to even 70 points (which won't be enough for top 5), we need 23 points in 10 games.. that's 7 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss. That's not happening in any realistic scenario. We'd do really well to even get 18 points (5 wins, 3 draws) from our last 10 fixtures which aren't that easy, which is 65 points. I'd guess we are in the low 60's range come the end of the season.
 
Nero said:
You can be terrible and still compete for 4th/5th. It's all relative.

It's the nature of the race. We're experienced enough in it by now given the last 10 years.
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Yep completely agree. This forum loves to deal in certainties.
 
Nero said:
You can be terrible and still compete for 4th/5th. It's all relative.

It's the nature of the race. We're experienced enough in it by now given the last 10 years.
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We arent even really competing though, we're miles behind.
 
Nero said:
You can be terrible and still compete for 4th/5th. It's all relative.

It's the nature of the race. We're experienced enough in it by now given the last 10 years.
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I mean we're competing obviously. It's just going terribly and there's little evidence that we'd be able to take advantage of a ''couple of bad games" from either team.
 
Utd heap said:
Yep completely agree. This forum loves to deal in certainties.
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We basically need to show form in the last 10 that we haven't all season (and we have a tough fixture list) to have a chance at top 4 while at the same time, Spurs and Villa showing basically relegation form for the last 10 games. It's a really big gap for only 10 games remaining, especially taking into account how we actually play.

It's fine to have hope and all, but we 100% should be resting players for the FA Cup if it becomes a fatigue thing between those 2 competitions as we have virtually no chance at top 4.
 
Utd heap said:
Yep completely agree. This forum loves to deal in certainties.
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It's common sense. We can't put a run together. We struggle against any half competent team. We're crap away from home. We lose far too often and our performances have been awful all season.

It's not like we've got easy fixtures. We've got two easy on paper fixtures and the rest are all banana skins. Granted the footballing god's might make everything align and we suddenly hit form and we suddenly find the formula to beat semi decent teams. But nothing I've watched in the last 12 months suggests that will happen.

I'd love to be optimistic but I don't bother these days with United. They always disappoint us.
 
RedSky said:
It's common sense. We can't put a run together. We struggle against any half competent team. We're crap away from home. We lose far too often and our performances have been awful all season.

It's not like we've got easy fixtures. We've got two easy on paper fixtures and the rest are all banana skins. Granted the footballing god's might make everything align and we suddenly hit form and we suddenly find the formula to beat semi decent teams. But nothing I've watched in the last 12 months suggests that will happen.

I'd love to be optimistic but I don't bother these days with United. They always disappoint us.
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I don't think we will make it either. It's just not 'done'.
 
Nero said:
8 points is nothing. Couple of bad games and all of a sudden you're one result away from them.
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Read the table. In order of GD. United would be 9th and that is your true level of performance. So few draws are just an lucky anomaly. You are nowhere near Tottenham´s or Villa´s level currently.
 
LilienFan said:
Read the table. In order of GD. United would be 9th and that is your true level of performance. So few draws are just an lucky anomaly. You are nowhere near Tottenham´s or Villa´s level currently.
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We beat Villa home and away.
 
LilienFan said:
Read the table. In order of GD. United would be 9th and that is your true level of performance. So few draws are just an lucky anomaly. You are nowhere near Tottenham´s or Villa´s level currently.
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Wrong. If you want to look at true level of performance, you should look at the xPTS table on understat.

We would be 12th.
 
Wednesday at Stoke said:
How does this even matter? This isn’t a knockout fixture where that would give you an edge, this is about consistency in the league.
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It matters in the 'they are lightyears ahead of us' nonsense spouted. We will end up close in the league and we will finish 5th or 6th which as usual will be about right over a 38 game season
 
Utd heap said:
It matters in the 'they are lightyears ahead of us' nonsense spouted. We will end up close in the league and we will finish 5th or 6th which as usual will be about right over a 38 game season
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Behind Villa and the one man team that sold the one man. Doesn't quite feel like a glass half-full situation the way you describe it.
 
Utd heap said:
It matters in the 'they are lightyears ahead of us' nonsense spouted. We will end up close in the league and we will finish 5th or 6th which as usual will be about right over a 38 game season
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And i think 5th or 6th place is not totally unexpected if you look at the players that have played a lot of matches for Manchester United this year. Spurs and Villa have quite a few players that would be starters for Manchester United.
 
erikcred said:
Behind Villa and the one man team that sold the one man. Doesn't quite feel like a glass half-full situation the way you describe it.
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Where have I claimed glass half full? We have been shit all season? We will be the 5th or 6th best team.
 
The Fulham game extinguished any hopes I might have had, it's too much of a mountain to climb now. Add to this a manager that probably knows he's leaving and a squad where a lot of them don't know their future at the club and I wouldn't be surprised at another end of season collapse like 18/19 season or 21-22. A lot of our players have history with this :(
 
They have some difficult games left but atm think Spurs will finish 4th. They've been good and there seems to be a positive vibe around them with Postecoglu this season. Villa favourites to finish above us and think only a collapse like the one Leicester had in 19/20 and 20/21 can change that.

Can see Spurs finishing with around 72-74 points, Villa 68-70 and then us 63-65. We had only outside chance even before Fulham loss, after that it's even more unlikely. Also defeats at Forest, West Ham and to Bournemouth back in December were damning, as we've actually been mostly decent so far in 2nd part of the season.
 
I don't think Ratcliffe has had enough time since takeover to actually make enough impact to help us this season - you can thank the Glazers for squeezing everything they could from this deal. That said, the very same Glazers have sanctioned a rather massive amount of money for EtH's transfers, for which we got, quite typically and very ironically, very little value. The good old penny wise, pound foolish.

Both the Glazers and Ratcliffe would have gotten more for their money's worth if the latter had enough time to sack EtH, replace him well, and rescue this season with a CL finish. I genuinely think our players are better than the Villa and Spurs ones, injuries included - both of them are actually having very inconsistent seasons, too. Just need a better manager. Not even a best in class, just a B-/C instead of the F we have in charge now. You know, like Ole.

As it stands, we'll start the Ratcliffe era of recruitment with a new manager and the usual position of weakness, quite possibly having to overpay for unwilling recruits both in transfers and in wages.

A fitting end to the Glazer legacy.
 
Utd heap said:
There's no guarantees any of these sides in this race win any game tbh. That's why we are all scrapping for 4th/5th/6th.
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I agree with that. But the problem is not about Spurs and Villa dropping points. Because they will.
But we getting 10 points more than one of them in next 12 games....no way with our form. Only City and Pool can win 9 or 10 games in a,row in this league. Maybe Arsenal too. And that is it.

I think race is over for us.
 
It's looking improbable again. We've shown we have the ability to make it seem less so and I expect us to do that again before it's all said and done.
 
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