PL Top 4 race

croadyman said:
So frustrating we lost those home games to Brighton and Palace. Could be literally just three points off the top right now
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We totally deserved to lose the match against Brighton & Hove.
We also deserved the defeats against Tottenham, Manchester City and Newcastle.

The defeat against Crystal Palace was just stupid....the defeat against Arsenal was also unnecessary (A draw would have been fair).
 
JogaBonitoRooney said:
Is there a way to track which league gets the extra CL spot? If England are on track to get it, it should be a top 5 race.
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So from the UEFA site, and the Coefficient list for clubs. England has the most clubs in top tiers so far.

England
Spain
--------------
Italy
Germany
-------------- big gap to 5th tier.
France

UEFA said:
How will the four extra Champions League group stage spots be allocated?

Qualification for the Champions League will continue to be open and depend on a club's final position in the previous season's domestic league competition combined with each association's position in the association club coefficient ranking. The basis of the access list will remain the same as for the current season, and the additional four slots available in 2024/25 will be allocated as follows:

Slot one: This place will go to the club ranked third in the championship of the association in fifth position in the access list, which is determined by the UEFA association club coefficient ranking.

Slot two: This place will be awarded to a domestic champion by extending from four to five the number of clubs qualifying via the Champions path of the competition's qualifying process, which will consist of four qualifying rounds.

Slots three and four: These places will go to the associations with the best collective performance by their clubs in the previous season (i.e. the association club coefficient of the previous season, which is based on the total number of club coefficient points obtained by each club from an association divided by the number of participating clubs from that association). Those two associations will each earn one automatic place in the league phase ('European Performance Spot') for the club ranked next-best in their domestic league behind those clubs that have already qualified directly for the league phase
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https://www.uefa.com/nationalassociations/uefarankings/club/#/yr/2024

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_coefficient#Current_ranking

https://www.football-coefficient.eu/coefficient/#
 
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There is no way England wont be one of the 2 best leagues - so it will be top-5
 
BabySinclair said:
We totally deserved to lose the match against Brighton & Hove.
We also deserved the defeats against Tottenham, Manchester City and Newcastle.

The defeat against Crystal Palace was just stupid....the defeat against Arsenal was also unnecessary (A draw would have been fair).
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You could say we deserved the defeat against Spurs - but we should have had a penalty at 0-0 - but then again we did not deserve the win against Wolves
 
lysglimt said:
You could say we deserved the defeat against Spurs - but we should have had a penalty at 0-0 - but then again we did not deserve the win against Wolves
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Of course we had also such matches....the win against Brentford was also not really deserved.
My point is just that the defeat against Crystal Palace annoys me.....you can sometimes draw such matches but you should never lose such matches (especially not if our away form against top sides is so bad).
 
Mercurial said:
So from the UEFA site, and the Coefficient list for clubs. England has the most clubs in top tiers so far.

England
Spain
--------------
Italy
Germany
-------------- big gap to 5th tier.
France



https://www.uefa.com/nationalassociations/uefarankings/club/#/yr/2024

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_coefficient#Current_ranking

https://www.football-coefficient.eu/coefficient/#
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Doesn't that depends on the 2023-2024-season-coefficient and not on the five-seasons-ranking-coefficient?
 
jadajos said:
It will be a pretty sad sight having United fans cheer on EPL champions City in a CL semi final against Real or Bayern just so United might edge a fifth place CL spot behind Tottenham or Villa.
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Welcome to life post-fergie. We're used to cheering on City you know!
 
jadajos said:
It will be a pretty sad sight having United fans cheer on EPL champions City in a CL semi final against Real or Bayern just so United might edge a fifth place CL spot behind Tottenham or Villa.
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City has been guarding our legacy (Number of PL titles) against Liverpool all these years, you know…
 
lysglimt said:
You could say we deserved the defeat against Spurs - but we should have had a penalty at 0-0 - but then again we did not deserve the win against Wolves
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Plus the game against Brighton we had a Hojlund goal wrongly ruled out as the deemed the ball had gone out of play.
 
BabySinclair said:
Doesn't that depends on the 2023-2024-season-coefficient and not on the five-seasons-ranking-coefficient?
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Trying to make head and tails of that cryptic message/explanation from UEFA, as I understood it, slot 3&4 goes based on the ' "association club coefficient" of the previous season' whatever that exactly means. It's all a bit of a mess.
 
Mercurial said:
Trying to make head and tails of that cryptic message/explanation from UEFA, as I understood it, slot 3&4 goes based on the ' "association club coefficient" of the previous season' whatever that exactly means. It's all a bit of a mess.
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Fairly certain it is based only on the performance of the various league for this current European season. Even though Newcastle and United both going out in the group stage will hurt it, have to think England will still be one of the top 2.
 
JogaBonitoRooney said:
Is there a way to track which league gets the extra CL spot? If England are on track to get it, it should be a top 5 race.
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Its based on how the teams in each country perform in Europe this season, if us and Newcastle go out of the Champions League in midweek that will probably end any chance the country has of getting a bonus spot.
 
RedRocket9908 said:
Its based on how the teams in each country perform in Europe this season, if us and Newcastle go out of the Champions League in midweek that will probably end any chance the country has of getting a bonus spot.
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It’s far less damaging if you go into Europa League.

A lot depends on what happens in the knockouts too. Realistically it’ll be two from England, Spain, and Germany this year.
 
RedRocket9908 said:
Its based on how the teams in each country perform in Europe this season, if us and Newcastle go out of the Champions League in midweek that will probably end any chance the country has of getting a bonus spot.
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Ironically, England will get far more points if they are both knocked out of the Champions League and enter the Europa League instead. Both teams are getting knocked out in the next round if they somehow make it through whereas they are probably favourites to win the whole thing along with Liverpool if they drop down to the Europa.
 
Only 2 English sides through to the last 16 of the UCL but 4 Spanish, 3 German, and 3 Italian so the race for the 2 bonus places looks like its between Spain, Germany, and Italy
 
RedRocket9908 said:
Only 2 English sides through to the last 16 of the UCL but 4 Spanish, 3 German, and 3 Italian so the race for the 2 bonus places looks like its between Spain, Germany, and Italy
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EL and Conf league also count. Villa, Pool and WH can go far.
Not that it will make difference for us.
 
JogaBonitoRooney said:
Is there a way to track which league gets the extra CL spot? If England are on track to get it, it should be a top 5 race.
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lysglimt said:
There is no way England wont be one of the 2 best leagues - so it will be top-5
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https://kassiesa.net/uefa/data/method5/crank2024.html

The relevant column for the 24/25 CL extra spots is the 23/24 one and which countries end up top 2 there. So far, England is 3rd behind Italy and Germany but that may well change soon if English teams go further.
 
I know it's financially damaging but I don't us in the CL until we get our act together and are in a position to do justice, in that competition, to our illustrious name in it. Our participation in this competition since Moyes, who had a respectable run himself, have been pathetic.
 
I'm still hoping that Villa and Spurs wheels will come off in the second half of the season.

We will finish 4th or 5th which will qualify us for next year CL.
 
Yakuza_devils said:
I'm still hoping that Villa and Spurs wheels will come off in the second half of the season.

We will finish 4th or 5th which will qualify us for next year CL.
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Will 5th definitely qualify us for CL? Or don’t we have to depend on one of the English teams winning their European competition?
 
DJ_21 said:
Will 5th definitely qualify us for CL? Or don’t we have to depend on one of the English teams winning their European competition?
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99% unless English club suffer unprecedented sudden catastrophic results in the next round of CL, EL and UECL.
 
Yakuza_devils said:
99% unless English club suffer unprecedented sudden catastrophic results in the next round of CL, EL and UECL.
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But won’t that mean 6 English teams could possibly be in next seasons CL? Say like West Ham won Europa league and wasn’t top 4 then they’d be in it. Unlikely I know. Isn’t there a rule where say like only 5 teams from each country is aloud in Europe?
 
DJ_21 said:
But won’t that mean 6 English teams could possibly be in next seasons CL? Say like West Ham won Europa league and wasn’t top 4 then they’d be in it. Unlikely I know. Isn’t there a rule where say like only 5 teams from each country is aloud in Europe?
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Nah there's no limit under the new rules.
 
Is there any confirmation yet that 5th will be enough for qualification into next years CL?
 
RuudTom83 said:
Is there any confirmation yet that 5th will be enough for qualification into next years CL?
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It's too soon to tell because it's based on how well clubs do in this years competitions.

It's still very likely because Man City and Arsenal will probably go far in the Champions League. Liverpool, West Ham and Brighton will probably go far in the Europa and Villa will probably go far in the conference. I'd say it's very likely that City, Liverpool and Villa win their competitions.
 
RuudTom83 said:
Is there any confirmation yet that 5th will be enough for qualification into next years CL?
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It'll depend on how English clubs do in Europe. Still slight favourites for it I think, but United and Newcastle dropping out has been a big hit in the chances of it. Top 2 performing nations get the extra spot.

From our perspective, to finish 5th will likely need mid 70's points. For us to get that means going around 2.5 points per game from here on out, or a 95 point pace season for half a season. Which is basically impossible. So we are fighting for 6th at best and hoping for a massive collapse for villa and Spurs where they get fewer than 30 points in the 2nd half of the season
 
RuudTom83 said:
Is there any confirmation yet that 5th will be enough for qualification into next years CL?
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No, it depends how well the teams do in this season's European competitions. A good chance it will be, but not if English clubs all got dumped out early in the knockout rounds.
 
Thanks guys!

Ever the optimist...whilst Villa, Spurs and West Ham sit above United in the table I will still think there is a chance of qualifying...as long as it goes down as far as 5th!
 
https://www.livescore.com/en/football/england/premier-league/table/

Effectively 9 points from top 4 with the goal difference. My optimism was coming back at half-time, now it's back to it's rightful place in the land of unlikely. 48 points still to play for, we should be in this.

Ps: Somebody please post an easily viewable Twitter link with the table, I can't seem to find one currently.

 
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Spurs will get around 70 points.

We'll probably finish on about 65 now.

That's your points barometer so you need to win 10 of your last 16 to have a serious shot of 5th imo. Basically all your homes left.
 
8 points behind Spurs in 4th, Villa level on points with Spurs. And a point behind West Ham who are 6th. We are playing West Ham and Villa next. Could get interesting (mind, Villa game is away).
 
Our next 4 games are all must wins if we want to finish top 4. If we can get to the City game 3-4 points behind 4th we have a chance but we have to win the next 4 games.
 
Bastian said:
8 points behind Spurs in 4th, Villa level on points with Spurs. And a point behind West Ham who are 6th. We are playing West Ham and Villa next. Could get interesting (mind, Villa game is away).
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6 point gap now, hopefully one of them slip next week.

Villa have Fulham away, Spurs have Wolves at home. Hard to see either dropping points but let's see.
 
MyOnlySolskjaer said:
6 point gap now, hopefully one of them slip next week.

Villa have Fulham away, Spurs have Wolves at home. Hard to see either dropping points but let's see.
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Yeah, had a look earlier. Villa play Fulham, Forest and Luton over the next three matches, while Spurs play Wolves, Chelsea and Palace. Maybe that Chelsea match can cut the deficit. Their fourth match is Villa - Spurs at Villa Park.

After we play Luton and Fulham we have City, so it's a bit daunting. I'm hoping 5th can yield CL football.
 
Other than City it's not exactly the most terrifying run of fixtures in the next five games. It's very much on for us if we can get a run going.
 
One thing we know about the race for fourth is that the teams in the race are really inconsistent! Us, Villa and Spurs are all capable of beating City or losing to Luton. The most consistent of the inconsistents will get fourth- I think it will be us
 
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