PL Top 4 race

Irwin99 said:
Other than City it's not exactly the most terrifying run of fixtures in the next five games. It's very much on for us if we can get a run going.
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Next 6 are

Luton A
Fulham H
City A
Everton H
Sheffield H
Brentford A

That's 5 bottom half teams that are must win, 5 out of 6 wins whilst on paper would be a great run it will probably only put us around level points with Spurs/Villa.

The final 8 games then involve Chelsea Liverpool Newcastle Arsenal and Brighton, 5 top half sides so will be very tough for us to get over the line.

I think our very small hopes of turning the season around probably died with Martinez injury, and then Shaw going off injured again to compound our problems.
 
Realistically we will still need one of Spurs or Villa to collapse if we are going to sneak in. All three teams are going to drop points. Hopefully Villa have run out of steam. I don't think Spurs are particularly great but their gung-ho approach will likely win them more points then lose them.
 
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I think our best chance is to overtake Villa who might run out of gas but Spurs do have a terrible block of fixtures towards the end all bunched up. In order they play:

Newcastle (a)
Man City (h)
Arsenal (h)
Liverpool (a)
 
Things are looking a lot rosier for us, the run of fixtures coming up are paper favourable barring City.

We have to pick up 15 points from the next 6 games to give us any realistic hope.
 
Sounds like Konsa and Kamara have both done their ACL’s and out for the season. That will mean Villa have had four ACL injuries this year
 
Riz said:
I think our best chance is to overtake Villa who might run out of gas but Spurs do have a terrible block of fixtures towards the end all bunched up. In order they play:

Newcastle (a)
Man City (h)
Arsenal (h)
Liverpool (a)
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6 of our next 7 games are very winnable.
Spurs are playing Villa in March also so that might be the weekend we catch up with one of them.
 
Riz said:
I think our best chance is to overtake Villa who might run out of gas but Spurs do have a terrible block of fixtures towards the end all bunched up. In order they play:

Newcastle (a)
Man City (h)
Arsenal (h)
Liverpool (a)
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:lol: That'll be a superb set of fixtures. Especially if there's a three-way title race on. One of the three managers is going to moan about getting beaten 4-3 when Spurs lose by 5-1 or something to the other two.
 
Torino said:
Sounds like Konsa and Kamara have both done their ACL’s and out for the season. That will mean Villa have had four ACL injuries this year
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feck sake. We actually need them to do well in Europe for 5th to even be a factor.
What I would say is the fixtures for our league rivals is brutal. Napoli v Barca, Lazio v Bayern, Leipzig v Madrid, even Inter v Atletico. EPL could have 5th spot wrapped up after next round of European fixtures
 
Just as Wolves are about to play Spurs in a game where we could do with Spurs dropping points Wolves best goalscorer gets ruled out for the season

 
That's a sickner for Wolves, he's been very good as of late.
 
cyberman said:
feck sake. We actually need them to do well in Europe for 5th to even be a factor.
What I would say is the fixtures for our league rivals is brutal. Napoli v Barca, Lazio v Bayern, Leipzig v Madrid, even Inter v Atletico. EPL could have 5th spot wrapped up after next round of European fixtures
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Honestly, I'd happily take a spot in the Europa if it meant the divs not winning the Champions League.

Also, what's the situation with 6th and 7th if top 5 all get Champions League?

Will 6th get Europa or Conference League? Or does that depend on who wins the FA and Carabao Cup?
 
Dominos said:
Next 6 are

Luton A
Fulham H
City A
Everton H
Sheffield H
Brentford A

That's 5 bottom half teams that are must win, 5 out of 6 wins whilst on paper would be a great run it will probably only put us around level points with Spurs/Villa.

The final 8 games then involve Chelsea Liverpool Newcastle Arsenal and Brighton, 5 top half sides so will be very tough for us to get over the line.

I think our very small hopes of turning the season around probably died with Martinez injury, and then Shaw going off injured again to compound our problems.
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FFS
 
I think we can finish ahead of Villa. Not convinced about Villa AND Spurs. Just looks like too much traffic.

I think 5th will likely be enough for CL so that's vital.

As others have said we need 15 points from the next 6 games to really be in the running. 13 wouldn't be a disaster, any less is probably game over.
 
Don't we have a very similar discussion about Spurs every single February? They'll bottle it and we'll catch them with a few games to spare.

Villa ran out of gas in mid December. In the last 7 games they've only beaten Burnley and Sheffield. We'll catch them within the next two weeks.
 
Lynty said:
Don't we have a very similar discussion about Spurs every single February? They'll bottle it and we'll catch them with a few games to spare.
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Bit of an odd take considering you only have to go back to 2022 when they finished above us. And they've finished above us 4 out the last 8 seasons, though granted they've declined since the Poch era.
 
If we win tomorrow we're 100% in the race for top 4 with Spurs losing. It'd be effectively 6 points with our crappy goal difference but that's really not a lot to make up with so many games to play.
 
I think it will be:
City
Liverpool
Arsenal
United

In that order.
 
538 used to do a forecast every season with probabilities.. I tried googling it and apparently they have been acquired by ABC and I cant find it anywhere..
does anyone still do it?
 
Irwin99 said:
If we win tomorrow we're 100% in the race for top 4 with Spurs losing. It'd be effectively 6 points with our crappy goal difference but that's really not a lot to make up with so many games to play.
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It would be three and a half points.

I realise no one else seems to use this but it's pretty simple, catch up three points and they beat us on goal difference, catch up four points and we beat them on points, so three and a half is the best way of representing the lead. Assuming we do win tomorrow of course.
 
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Said in the matchday thread but a huge point of optimism is that we've many difficult aways out of the way including against Spurs.
 
70 points the target for everyone (71 for Man. United unless you post some cricket scores in the run in with the GD but you do have Burnley and Sheffield United still to play at home....).
 
100 said:
Said in the matchday thread but a huge point of optimism is that we've many difficult aways out of the way including against Spurs.
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Brighton away is one of the worst for you guys nowadays, think you've lost four or five down there since their promotion in 2017?

On the final day isn't it so feels inevitable they'll be something riding on that one if they can string a few wins together.
 
FootballHQ said:
Brighton away is one of the worst for you guys nowadays, think you've lost four or five down there since their promotion in 2017?

On the final day isn't it so feels inevitable they'll be something riding on that one if they can string a few wins together.
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Brighton are our bogey team, we haven’t beaten them since ten Hag took charge.
 
Was hoping for a Fulham equalizer that never came. Still a good week so far with spurs and Newcastle dropping point. Must win game tomorrow, if it already wasn’t
 
FootballHQ said:
Brighton away is one of the worst for you guys nowadays, think you've lost four or five down there since their promotion in 2017?

On the final day isn't it so feels inevitable they'll be something riding on that one if they can string a few wins together.
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I don’t think Brighton is playing well enough this year to get in European contention, but yes indeed they are a Bodley fixture for us now regardless.

I think whoever wins the match between you and Spuds will get a CL spot, leaving us to scrap with the other (assuming 5th also get CL). I just can’t see us overtaking both teams with our GD and brutal run in.
 
Dominos said:
Next 6 are

Luton A
Fulham H
City A
Everton H
Sheffield H
Brentford A

That's 5 bottom half teams that are must win, 5 out of 6 wins whilst on paper would be a great run it will probably only put us around level points with Spurs/Villa.

The final 8 games then involve Chelsea Liverpool Newcastle Arsenal and Brighton, 5 top half sides so will be very tough for us to get over the line.

I think our very small hopes of turning the season around probably died with Martinez injury, and then Shaw going off injured again to compound our problems.
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Ayoba said:
FFS
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Works both ways:

Tottenham have to play Villa and have back to back fixures against Newcastle, City, Arsenal and Liverpool.

Villa still have to face City, Tottenham, Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea and Brighton and look the most likely to crash.
 
Whilst Villa have the points advantage at the moment over Spurs/United, they're the ones who are still in Europe so you'd fancy they're the most likely for their league form to fall off a cliff at some point once they start playing on Thursdays again.
 
Win at Villa was massive. Spurs, Newcastle and West Ham will always drop points, so it’s between us and them now for 4th.
 
Dominos said:
Bit of an odd take considering you only have to go back to 2022 when they finished above us. And they've finished above us 4 out the last 8 seasons, though granted they've declined since the Poch era.
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More so referencing Spurs inability to finish the job.

They can’t perform when it matters, strongly believe we’ll catch them.
 
Sky just shown Opta predictor that had us 10% chance to make top 4. Bit concerning!

If we were actually playing well during this winning run, I'd fancy us. The fact we're still mostly dreadful puts us as firm outsiders.
 
Dominos said:
Sky just shown Opta predictor that had us 10% chance to make top 4. Bit concerning!

If we were actually playing well during this winning run, I'd fancy us. The fact we're still mostly dreadful puts us as firm outsiders.
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Spurs are a lot, lot worse. Villa have two league wins all year! Feck knows how they’ve come to that result
 
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