Just out of interest, how much would you value Pogba at?
I am not a Juventus fan, but a French online magazine, Sofoot, did an interesting article.
http://www.sofoot.com/pourquoi-pogba-vaut-bien-ses-120-millions-226568.html
Why Pogba is worth his 120 millions
120 millions euro. Boom, the sum has been mentioned, the 100 threshold broken. Instead of stopping at numbers, we can use them to better understand football nowadays. And it's very interesting. At least, as much as Paul Pogba's game.
By Eric Carpentier - Saturday 23rd July
The 9.9 seconds of Jim Hines in 1968. The 6 meters of Serguei Bubka in 1985. The 120 millions of Pogba in 2016. Which doesn't make him the best player in the world, that's obvious. But since football is a team game and that performances are not measured only with the number of goals scored, let's accept the transfer amount. It's an revealing metric of the state of a sport which drains with it sums which are more and more important. Some will say it's indecent, others will respond it's just offer and demand. The eternal battle between those who judge football as a world off the ground, when their neighbours see a microcosm reflecting the world as it is. But beyond the ideological debate, a field where those who do not follow football enter more easily than those who are passionate about it, there's an assessment: football has shattered a new ceiling. And this transfer of 120 millions euro is a milestone which allows to take the pulse of a sport that never stops expanding. Like Paul Pogba?
The football market? Rational!
120 million euro then. Football is doing well, thank you. The first lesson of the Pogba's case is here: when a market expands, the financial cash flows pertaining to it increase. For Loic Ravenel, co-founder of the Observatory of football, at the International Center of Spots Studies (CIES in French), it's nothing unusual: "
On the contrary of what is often being said, the market is quite rational. We can model it correctly, and we can understand what explains the observed values. The age of the player, his performances, the position he plays, the club for which he plays, the previous transfers, the length of the contract..."
. Regarding Paul Pogba, the CIES' model announces a value of 95 millions euro. An amount finally quite close to what United pays to get La Pioche back.
But then, what has changed in this "
rationality"? Very simply, its scale. "
The era of globalization is worth for certain top clubs and the whole Premier League" for the CIES' researcher. "
Barcelona, Real, Chelsea, United, City... are no more national clubs, they have to consider themselves on a global scale. They train in the USA or in Asia, their games are watched in the whole world...". As a consequence, a "
super elite" for the luckiest beneficiaries, who fight with millions to get the best players and stay at that level. A long-term trend which is far from being new, which is revealed more than ever by the Pogba's case. Or by the case of the Premier League, a globalized league which retrieves "
the premium of the first entrant", or the first mover advantage, with its fabulous tv rights. First arrived, first served, in short. What's the irony here? This arms race in the Premier League results ultimately to a large redistribution to all its members, which will allow Aston Villa to get more tv rights than the PSG. Instead of having a 2 speeds competition, it's the whole league which improves, for more competition, therefore more spectators, and more money. Simple.
Ibrahimovic vs Pogba
Remains than the additional 25 millions euro, compared to the rational number of 95 millions. 25 millions which can be considered as a margin, a percentage like banking fees for those who are used to be overdrawn. In the case of Paul Pogba, who should be spared of his banker's phone calls, this margin corresponds to "
a little plus, either of the fame, or the talent. At this level, there is a competition between teams which drives the price up, and we get out of the model world", concedes Loic Ravenel. "
But this will be the case for ten players in the world, at best. Clearly, Pogba is one of them". There is therefore the model on one hand, and the exception on the other hand.
But an exception is another rule, the individual
branding. For Nicolas Chavanat, lecturer at the University of Paris-Sarclay, and co-author with Michel Desbordes of the
Marketing of football, one thing is clear: clubs but also players are brands. "
Manchester United is a brand. Wayne Rooney is a brand. Jose Mourinho is a brand. Ibrahimovic is a brand. And Paul Pogba is brand, of course". The rest is just a marketing strategy. Since Ferguson, the strategy of Manchester United has evolved, so it has to be adapted as well. "
For example, Ibra is an established brand, while Pogba is a brand in the making. All the complexity for clubs is to find the right equation, what we call the congruence between brands". Which means the best way to make different brands coexist altogether. Won't the historic Ibra puts the development of the new Pogba in its shade? It's a risk but, for a Manchester United at a low point sport-wise, "
you have to show you are relevant, that you are powerful. You cannot let yourself distanced by others in term of fame". Which is exactly the reason why PSG went for a leading figure with a big nose, for example.
Pogba, the new Zidane on Instagram
This
branding of players is the main new things since 2010. If, there has been players whose aura went beyond football, since George Best to Djibril Cisse, Nicolas Chavanat puts a turning point at the "
London Olympic Games of 2012". Which means that the analysis is not specific to football: "
It was the first competition where the digital entered in the sports. The digital is at the service of the ambush marketing (marketing techniques to become visible in an event without being an official partner)
. By the way, we see athletes being reprimanded, e.g. Michael Phelps who communicates with Louis Vuitton, while Vuitton is not an official partner of the Olympic Games. It's at this moment that athletes realize that they are a whole media themselves, and that they can use it from a marketing and economic perspective". Which is exactly a domain where Paul Pogba is excellent: the magazine
US SportsPro, which establishes each year the ranking of the fifty most "
marketable" sports players, puts Pogba at the 2nd place, behind the sniper Stephen Curry, but ahead of the Indian Virat Kohli, a cricket player. Which should justify an additional 25 millions compared to the "
market price" from United, in need of recognition.
There is therefore no craziness in the amount paid by United for Pogba, only a price paid in consistence with a global football market and which does not look at sports performances only, but more and more the economic potential of the player. Not necessarily an absolute new trend, just a confirming trend of which Paul Pogba is a tangible and resounding illustration. And not necessarily a speculative bubble either: the transfer of Zidane at Real in 2001, with the current inflation, would be quoted at 94 millions euro. So yes, there is and will be only one Zidane. On the field, that's obvious. But in the global picture, there is also one Pogba. For now.
By Eric Carpentier.