Northern Ireland Thread

Think it will be a monumental election with SF becoming FM but unfortunately don’t see much changing in terms of progress here.

DUP/TUV have really backed themselves into a corner. Campaigning for brexit, propping up the Tory’s and now all this anti protocol stuff implemented by the Tory government. And the union they’re obsessed with defending and being a part of is the same union which is implementing the border across the Irish Sea.

Then if they were to nominate a deputy they will probably lose support from their core who were under the impression they wouldn’t nominate. Similarly if they don’t nominate they’re hardly going to gain any votes from any other parties from that stance. I don’t see how either party recovers from this.

In terms of unionist parties, only the UUP is coming out with any real credibility and have made progress. But they’ll always be hindered as long as they associate themselves with the Conservative party and have “ulster” and “unionism” in their name. Due to that I can’t see how they’ll ever gain votes from the catholic community.

Alliance/SDLP/PBP are all alot more progressive in terms of not being tribal or too right wing. And I’d love a government where we had either of these parties or the UUP in coalition but I think we’re still a long way from that.

Many members of the unionist community will never support SF due to their history and terrorism links and I respect that. In the same way I respect how catholics wouldn’t vote for unionist parties.

So for me the best way to progress is to avoid those extreme green/orange parties altogether. But that’s just my opinion and I respect the democratic process.

Whatever happens, tomorrow will certainly be a lot more interesting than usual.
 
Deery said:
On the leaders debate on BBC1, may have picked it up wrong but I’m sure that’s what was being suggested.
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When I watched the debate I got the impression that they weren’t intending to nominate. I think he maybe alluded to the fact that they can make decisions at the first meeting before having to elect the DFM or something like that. I may be wrong though.
 
ThehatchetMan said:
When I watched the debate I got the impression that they weren’t intending to nominate. I think he maybe alluded to the fact that they can make decisions at the first meeting before having to elect the DFM or something like that. I may be wrong though.
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Could be right it was towards the end and not much time spent on it.
 
If predictions are correct, SF will more than likely be the largest party. If so, the DUP will refuse to nominate a DFM and there will be a political vacuum.
Alliance will improve their vote as will the TUV but whether the latter gain more than a couple of seats is debatable. Regrettably, the more liberal Unionist party UUP and Nationalist party SDLP will probably lose out as the election has become all about whether SF become the largest party and people will have voted accordingly.
 
DON’T PANIC ™ said:
If predictions are correct, SF will more than likely be the largest party. If so, the DUP will refuse to nominate a DFM and there will be a political vacuum.
Alliance will improve their vote as will the TUV but whether the latter gain more than a couple of seats is debatable. Regrettably, the more liberal Unionist party UUP and Nationalist party SDLP will probably lose out as the election has become all about whether SF become the largest party and people will have voted accordingly.
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Let’s not try and pretend the UUP are liberal though. They are the northern Irish wing of the British Conservative party.
 
Sinn Fein is doing amazing in the polls, SDLP taking a real kicking, looks like a lot of nationalists have switched to the Republican vote.

Robin Swann with a massive win for UUP.
 
Sinn Fein romping it. What an historic event

15 seats so far out of the 23 declared
 
Glad the Northern Irish are realising the English don't give a feck.
 
Just here for the DUP meltdown and we can only hope, for the good of everyone in the country, the dissolution of them as a party.
 
Bobski said:
Just here for the DUP meltdown and we can only hope, for the good of everyone in the country, the dissolution of them as a party.
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the DUP will find a way to spin it.

reality is they are done.
 
ThehatchetMan said:
Where have you heard this? Everything I’ve read suggests they won’t be nominating aDFM.
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So the Democratic Unionist Party won't be nominating a Deputy First Minister and taking part in government because they don't like the results of a Democratic election.

Only in Northern Ireland.
 
i don't understand the hard line Unionist stance of saying power sharing doesn't wok. Fine, lets see how far you go with FPTP, and this SF
 
Seems to be going pretty much as expected?
Sinn Fein will be the majority party with the DUP losing some seats to Alliance and other unionist parties. Dynamics of Stormont wont really change (or exist) with a few extra obstacles to add to the pile. Am i on the right track?
 
Bobski said:
Just here for the DUP meltdown and we can only hope, for the good of everyone in the country, the dissolution of them as a party.
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Are you English? If you think DUP are bad, wait till you see TUV haha
 
caid said:
Seems to be going pretty much as expected?
Sinn Fein will be the majority party with the DUP losing some seats to Alliance and other unionist parties. Dynamics of Stormont wont really change (or exist) with a few extra obstacles to add to the pile. Am i on the right track?
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SF as FM is a significant landmark moment though so that can’t be understated.

Similarly the Alliance gains are huge and I think they can only grow on this moving forward. It’s a good sign having more people moving away from green/orange voting.

Very much, much the same for now, but DUP have really backed themselves into a corner and not sure where they go from here.
 
ThehatchetMan said:
SF as FM is a significant landmark moment though so that can’t be understated.

Similarly the Alliance gains are huge and I think they can only grow on this moving forward. It’s a good sign having more people moving away from green/orange voting.

Very much, much the same for now, but DUP have really backed themselves into a corner and not sure where they go from here.
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I think the DUP are dinosaurs, cant see them going anywhere. Just circling the same drain
 
caid said:
I think the DUP are dinosaurs, cant see them going anywhere. Just circling the same drain
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Think it’s unlikely the protocol will get sorted!
And we also know SF are now FM.

So they can either go into government and maybe gain a slight bit of support from More moderate unionists but lose significant vote from the hardcore.

Or alternatively they stick to their guns in which case I don’t see where they gain votes from.

Don’t see how they recover. The TUV splitting the vote hasn’t helped them one bit either and will just continue to damage them.

Dead Unionist Party
 
How I think it will end up:

SF - 28
DUP - 23
Alliance - 16
UUP - 10
SDLP - 9
IND - 2
PBP - 1
TUV - 1
 
This whole protocol issue is simply a load of balls. The DUP are just using it as a red herring. No one cares about it. The fact they have fought an election on the back of getting it removed and have just got pumped in that election should waken them up to that fact.

But even so I would love to know how they effectively intend to overturn an agreement between the UK & the EU? It’s pie in the sky nonsense.
 
Rooney24 said:
This whole protocol issue is simply a load of balls. The DUP are just using it as a red herring. No one cares about it. The fact they have fought an election on the back of getting it removed and have just got pumped in that election should waken them up to that fact.

But even so I would love to know how they effectively intend to overturn an agreement between the UK & the EU? It’s pie in the sky nonsense.
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Its just a convenient excuse to lock the country in stasis politically. They think this is as good as it gets. If it wasn't the protocol it'd be some trivial crap like the Irish Language Act.
 
Honestly can’t believe Alliance got so many votes, such a watery party. Sit on the fence about everything.
 
ThehatchetMan said:
Are you English? If you think DUP are bad, wait till you see TUV haha
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Nah, from Belfast.

I get you with the TUV, but the DUP have been the greatest burden to progress in this country in my lifetime(late 30's) and I would celebrate their collapse. As others have mentioned they are dinosaurs, stuck in the past and we need a political asteroid to wipe them out.
 
Looking at North Ireland elections result it looks like, the United Kingdom's breakup is coming faster than anyone expected and it seems inevitable at this point. Each country will be fully independent in 10 years time or less at this state.
 
Ahmer Baig said:
Looking at North Ireland elections result it looks like, the United Kingdom's breakup is coming faster than anyone expected and it seems inevitable at this point. Each country will be fully independent in 10 years time or less at this state.
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Nah, cant really see it. DUP are hiding behind the protocol but they'll wait this out since they didn't get first minister and in 6 months time rally the Unionists to overturn this election. Its an absolutely shocking form of democracy.
When the UI prospect is being drawn up, I don't wanna hear about how worried unionists are about being accepted etc. I just hope they are as welcomed in that scenario as Nationalists are in NI today. No more, no less
 
What an election for Alliance though! Great to see so many people go out and vote for a cross community party, shows just how many people out there want a chance from the tribal politics of SF/DUP that we’ve all faced for decades.

Would love to see a government consisting of some of UUP/SDLP/Alliance/PBP/Green one day.
 
Tincanalley said:
Any update on this? Should be SF 27 DUP 24?
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Still 2 more seats to go which I imagine will go to SDLP and UUP but may go to DUP or PBP. So will end up

SF - 27
DUP - 24
Alliance - 17
UUP - 10 (if they get foyle)
SDLP - 8
IND - 2
PBP - 1
TUV - 1


Wouldn’t say my prediction was too far off!
 
Deery said:
Honestly can’t believe Alliance got so many votes, such a watery party. Sit on the fence about everything.
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Alliance are a weird one. I think because they neither declare as unionist or nationalist that it is a massive benefit they have. Which is funny in a way because people vote for them out of protest and the want for change from Green (SF)/ Orange (DUP) politics which then makes voting Alliance slightly tribal in itself.

I do find it quite disheartening though when you browse sites such as Reddit which have a massive nationalist bias and are constantly trying to snipe at alliance voters.

There is certainly an aurora of arrogance surrounding some SF voters at present, even reading their comments about Collum Eastwood who I think had done an exceptional job at SDLP and they’re all just having digs at him.

I guess it just feels like they’ve became very condescending and patronising where they think their party is the shit and just see faults in every other opposing party. Similar to how Tory voters view the rest of the electorate.

However that’s just a small proportion of SF voters and usuall the loud minority. I’m very happy to see a nationalist party get FM and this is a landmark occasion so congratulations to them and their supporters.

I just hope that this really is “time for change” but unfortunately the DUP/SF combo has delivered very little for NI over the last 2 decades and I have very little faith that this election is going to change that at all.

So while Alliance may be a bit wishy washy. I have a lot more faith in them and other parties I mentioned above delivering for NI than I do the current combo who prefer to squabble and collapse government other petty shite like flying union jacks at city hall, Irish language acts, RHI schemes, protocols etc..

If SF are as progressive as they say they are and if they truly want to implement these progressive policies then surely reforming the assembly will be top of their agenda. They know that while they share governance with the DUP they will always struggle to push forward with their more progressive policies.

So it is in their best interests as well as the electorate to push for reform in how the FM/DFM are determined and to allow for parties such as Aliiance to potentially take Up those positions who they know would be in more support if their policies.I believe Alliance have voted with SF something like 75% of time over last 5 years for example.

So I guess this is the real test now. Are they a progressive party which want change? Or do they want to keep the status quo which delivers very little for the country but keeps them relevant and in high paying jobs but delivering very little.
 
Deery said:
Honestly can’t believe Alliance got so many votes, such a watery party. Sit on the fence about everything.
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Isn’t it just an indication that a growing number of voters care less about the issues that dominate the tribal politics that have historically dominated the discussion?
 
ThehatchetMan said:
Alliance are a weird one. I think because they neither declare as unionist or nationalist that it is a massive benefit they have. Which is funny in a way because people vote for them out of protest and the want for change from Green (SF)/ Orange (DUP) politics which then makes voting Alliance slightly tribal in itself.

I do find it quite disheartening though when you browse sites such as Reddit which have a massive nationalist bias and are constantly trying to snipe at alliance voters.

There is certainly an aurora of arrogance surrounding some SF voters at present, even reading their comments about Collum Eastwood who I think had done an exceptional job at SDLP and they’re all just having digs at him.

I guess it just feels like they’ve became very condescending and patronising where they think their party is the shit and just see faults in every other opposing party. Similar to how Tory voters view the rest of the electorate.

However that’s just a small proportion of SF voters and usuall the loud minority. I’m very happy to see a nationalist party get FM and this is a landmark occasion so congratulations to them and their supporters.

I just hope that this really is “time for change” but unfortunately the DUP/SF combo has delivered very little for NI over the last 2 decades and I have very little faith that this election is going to change that at all.

So while Alliance may be a bit wishy washy. I have a lot more faith in them and other parties I mentioned above delivering for NI than I do the current combo who prefer to squabble and collapse government other petty shite like flying union jacks at city hall, Irish language acts, RHI schemes, protocols etc..

If SF are as progressive as they say they are and if they truly want to implement these progressive policies then surely reforming the assembly will be top of their agenda. They know that while they share governance with the DUP they will always struggle to push forward with their more progressive policies.

So it is in their best interests as well as the electorate to push for reform in how the FM/DFM are determined and to allow for parties such as Aliiance to potentially take Up those positions who they know would be in more support if their policies.I believe Alliance have voted with SF something like 75% of time over last 5 years for example.

So I guess this is the real test now. Are they a progressive party which want change? Or do they want to keep the status quo which delivers very little for the country but keeps them relevant and in high paying jobs but delivering very little.
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I can agree with nearly everything you’ve written there, I think this has been as Green/Orange as a vote as I’ve ever seen even when the media is trying to dress it up as progressive. Sinn Fein I didn’t think even ran a good campaign and hasn’t delivered on many things just opting to argue it out with the DUP as usual over ILA and so on maybe the £200 heating payment helped so close to voting time and the fact DUP has been such a shower this past 2 years.

I was very sad to see Mallon and even Bailey lose seats as they have been very good and hard working politicians, I’m not even sure many Alliance voters actually pay attention to their politics and just voted for them because it wasn’t DUP or Sinn Fein, I also agree with you on Eastwood he’s a really decent guy and I always agree with him if Hanna and Eastwood ran the election it may have been much different.
 
Brwned said:
Isn’t it just an indication that a growing number of voters care less about the issues that dominate the tribal politics that have historically dominated the discussion?
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It is I suppose in a way people don’t want to vote Sinn Fein as they have a past and not DUP as they are dinosaurs but Alliance is so watery for me they never say anything of note and hardly ever get off the fence.

I think when they actually have to make decisions and take sides their voters will migrate back to DUP anyway.
 
Deery said:
I can agree with nearly everything you’ve written there, I think this has been as Green/Orange as a vote as I’ve ever seen even when the media is trying to dress it up as progressive. Sinn Fein I didn’t think even ran a good campaign and hasn’t delivered on many things just opting to argue it out with the DUP as usual over ILA and so on maybe the £200 heating payment helped so close to voting time and the fact DUP has been such a shower this past 2 years.

I was very sad to see Mallon and even Bailey lose seats as they have been very good and hard working politicians, I’m not even sure many Alliance voters actually pay attention to their politics and just voted for them because it wasn’t DUP or Sinn Fein, I also agree with you on Eastwood he’s a really decent guy and I always agree with him if Hanna and Eastwood ran the election it may have been much different.
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The DUP and TUV were the only parties running an orange v green election, and stoking tension and division non? That needs to be clear.

On SDLP? they are completely lost, what do they actually stand for now? I know Nicola Mallon and she's a lovely girl, hard-working, principled etc; but I think they've completely lost touch with their base if there is even is one now? Can they recover? I don't think so from here.

Eastwood seems like a decent guy alright but he's part of the problem imo. After the count when it was clear that SDLP were down and losing seats he says "people have lent their vote to SF"... No Colm, they've voted for SF because they offer progressive politics with politicians who are actually in touch with their voter base. Those votes aren't coming back.
 
thebelfastboy said:
The DUP and TUV were the only parties running an orange v green election, and stoking tension and division non? That needs to be clear.

On SDLP? they are completely lost, what do they actually stand for now? I know Nicola Mallon and she's a lovely girl, hard-working, principled etc; but I think they've completely lost touch with their base if there is even is one now? Can they recover? I don't think so from here.

Eastwood seems like a decent guy alright but he's part of the problem imo. After the count when it was clear that SDLP were down and losing seats he says "people have lent their vote to SF"... No Colm, they've voted for SF because they offer progressive politics with politicians who are actually in touch with their voter base. Those votes aren't coming back.
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What votes? The extra 1% that SF gained which were likely from people who didn’t vote last election? They didn’t gain any extra seats.

And what about the progressive policies which invoked this huge change, what changed policy wise wirh SF from 2017? Why have they not implemented these progressive policies over the last 20 years?

I think there will be a lot of disillusioned SF supporters when they realise that very little changes in the political landscape after this election.

SF know this themselves anyway. That’s why it will be interesting now to see if their actions speak louder than their words and if they will push for constitutional change so they have a chance of implementing the policies which they promised their voters.

Or will it just be more of the status quo? And don’t get me wrong I do fully blame the DUP for the lack of progress on most things. But they will continue to be the largest unionist party because the more liberal “orange voters” want to vote for a party which pledges to represent all. And thus this is why reform is needed at the assembly for reform to happen. Surely you understand that?

Or if not. Then what do you think changes with SF as FM and DUP as DFM? How does this differ from the last 20 years?

EDIT: I’m not saying any of the above to be a dick. I’m just being realistic. Do not doubt for one second how happy I am to see SF pip DUP to FM. I just don’t foresee the same changes happening that some SF supporters do because the result is largely the same assembly as before.

I think the real revolution from this election is the fact that Alliance have more than doubled their seats and had an increase in 5% of FPV as well as continuing to be one of the most transfer friendly parties.
For me this is just as significant as SF gaining FM and is the biggest change in this election. And I think more of SDLPs lost votes would have went to Alliance rather than SF.

I feel sorry for UUP/SDLP because there are some very good politicians within both parties. But due to them identifying as Unionist/Nationalist it will always hinder them and they will continue to lose votes to Alliance as well as the other way to SF/DUP.
 
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