Did they win?
NBA 2023-2024
- Thread starter charlton66
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It's a very simple concept. If you don't understand it, that's okay. You quite clearly are not an idiot, just have a black spot in this one particular subject. I am sure I have many of those myself also.
I think now is a good time to get back to the basketball conversations.
I had already answered your question in the previous post. Not my fault you skipped it
0-154 is pretty simple to understand too
people seem to already be suggesting it’s a given Wolves win the next one at home. They just lost their last 2 there so I’d say that isn’t a given at all. If Kyrie and Luka both turn up, the Wolves won’t win, and Kyrie and Luka have turned up a lot these playoffs.
Yeah, in fact it was the first close-out game Kyrie has lost in his entire career. He was something like a ridiculous 14-0 before last night in those as the only player in history.
I agree with Giorno here. Until a team actually does it, winning 4 in a row while down 0-3 is as close to 0% chance as it gets.
With the Celtics last year, obviously the chance wasn't literally 0% heading into game 7, but just as it did with the other 154 instances, they still came up short.
Nit-picking about "0% chance at tip off in game 7" is daft, and besides the point. With 0-154 so far, the chances are 0,65% or so at 0-3. So pretty close to 0 at that point.
Your chances of rolling a 6 on a dice six times in a row is 0,013%. But if you've rolled a 6 five times in a row, the probability is still 16,6% that your next dice will be a 6.
Wouldn't that be an argument in favor of the "it's pretty much 50/50 at tip-off of Game 7" view then? You look at the percentage chance of the last throw/game in isolation.
It's all a moot point for me though, it won't happen. Dallas will win one of the remaining three games.
Yes - which was kind of my point, while it might not have been clear. The chances at 0-3 is almost as close to zero it can get, at 0,65%.
But _if_ it gets to a game 7, the chances are obviosuly a lot more than 0,65%. Literally everybody understands that, which is why I believe Massi's rhetoric to be daft.
Of course it can, theoretically, happen. But it hasn't, and (I believe) it won't this time either. Close to 0% chance.
Ask me before tip off in (the very unlikely) game 7, and I'll say the chances are a lot higher than 0%. As will Giorno.
Real life is (still…) much more faceted than the internet and its out-of-context, in-isolation, statistical and even sociopathic takes… 0-154 just means 0 in real life and even if 1 is going to happen sooner or later, we will still see 1-200 or 1-250 before 2… provided that humans are not replaced by machines or dice rolls!
Technically the 3-1 probability can be applied because the overall stats of that would include situations where a team was down 3-0 and won the next game but that does hide the context of Wolves being 3-0 down before. Therefore, I would still say the 3-0 probability applies because in the end Mavs need to lose 4 in a row, which is highly unlikely.
Sort of like 'probability of Wolves winning from 1-3 given that they were down 3-0'. That would equal 0 based on experience.
Sigh.
1. Not all 0-3 situation are the same. Most often a pre-series favourite is leading 3-0, not the case now or last year.
2. You don't calculate the probability 1/155, that makes very little sense. One would have to have a sample size of probably around one million to get an accuracy anywhere near 0.65%. Think in probability ranges and confidence levels, I am sure you are familiar with those.
3. Series is now 1-3 and people reference the 0-155 record, and they will keep doing that at 2-3 and 3-3, it is truly remarkable and fascinating, but that's what they do. At the very least discount the 95 sweeps now that series is 1-3.
4. Pretty much everybody in this thread has the ability to understand these things, but most are unwilling to learn.
5. I actually know what I am talking about. I have made a very easy living out of people not understanding simple probabilities and I try to cherish that, at the same time it is very frustrating to see, because world would be a much more efficient and a better place if people did understand probabilities.
Now can we please get back to basketball, because I understand less than 0.65% of readers are interested in this.
Timberwolves have to win three straight. Look, don't kid yourselves. There's not a chance in hell that over the next three games that Doncic and Kyrie don't show up at least once (which by the way is all they need.)
Spot on. It took the below stat box for the Wolves to win by five points.
Edwards+Towns - 20-38 fg, 6-10 3fg, 8-11 ft, 15 reb, 10 ast, +22, 54 pts
Doncic+Irving - 13-41 fg, 5-17 3fg, 13-15 ft, 17 reb, 14 ast, -15, 44 pts
Plus Washington shot horribly and no Lively to help in the paint. And Towns had shot terribly from downtown but suddenly hits at an 80% clip. Seems like a one-off on current form.
I do see Game 5 as a tossup but if either of Doncic/Irving get hot, the Mavs likely win. And if both get hot it's probably a blowout.
Safe to say that Doncic is turning up today. 
This is not basketball, this is not NBA playoffs. Poor all around. Dallas are not that great, with all due respect.
Never thought Dallas would make the finals, I had them getting to the WCF at the start of the playoffs but didn't think they could beat Denver or Minnesota.
Difficult to predict the Finals now, would still go with Celtics just on how much talent and experience they have.
Difficult to predict the Finals now, would still go with Celtics just on how much talent and experience they have.
Scorching hot start from Doncic. Wow! Dominant win.
0-155!
0-155!
Sigh. Only way I could have been proven wrong in this game would have been if I said Minnesota is going to win with a probability of 1, which rather obviously I did not think, say or imply. Wouldn't it make more sense to read, ask questions and trying to learn instead of continuesly showing your cluelessness?
Luka is amazing! Will be great finals! Looong wait though
So, that's a no? Ok Trump
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You were getting too bogged down in probabilities. Most of us saw the basketball for what it was:
This wasn’t even particularly difficult to predict.
Perhaps. But I was only disagreeing with the 0-2% crowd, especially the 0%. After game 4 I thought Minnesota had maybe 10-14%, so still a very small chance. And anything from 5% to 25% could have been reasonably argued.
Anyway, let's hope we get great finals and that it doesn't start with 3 wins for either team
Who's guarding Luka?
Tatum is probably the best option, but that also means foul trouble for the C's best player before half time.
Tatum is probably the best option, but that also means foul trouble for the C's best player before half time.
Surely it will be a mix of Brown, White and Holiday guarding Luka and Kyrie, right?
Perkins picked Boston, who'd have thunk it the biggest Celtics homer would pick the Celtics. Such an annoying analyst overall.
Anyhow, Dallas' fifth seed was slightly bogus according to the Get Up! crew - they have the second best record in the league since February (includes playoffs) behind Boston. Windhorst mentioned they sat players the last two games with seeds already locked, both games were blowout losses. The Mavs struggled after a hot start going 26-22 through January - a 44/45-win pace, but have been much better down the stretch at 24-10, a 58-win pace (OKC also went 24-10 and Denver 24-9). Boston was 37-11 and 27-7 respectively, both best marks although in a weaker conference but they did very well against the West and 2-0 against both iterations of Dallas.
I think this could be a fantastic series or annihilation by the side with the hottest shooters.
6:28 mark has the post January records which include the playoffs.
Anyhow, Dallas' fifth seed was slightly bogus according to the Get Up! crew - they have the second best record in the league since February (includes playoffs) behind Boston. Windhorst mentioned they sat players the last two games with seeds already locked, both games were blowout losses. The Mavs struggled after a hot start going 26-22 through January - a 44/45-win pace, but have been much better down the stretch at 24-10, a 58-win pace (OKC also went 24-10 and Denver 24-9). Boston was 37-11 and 27-7 respectively, both best marks although in a weaker conference but they did very well against the West and 2-0 against both iterations of Dallas.
I think this could be a fantastic series or annihilation by the side with the hottest shooters.
6:28 mark has the post January records which include the playoffs.
Dallas in 6
Perkins is a bellend and we shouldn’t even be shining a light on his “analysis” in here. Even this thread is too good for that.
speaking of fat people, let’s hope Luka pulls this off
speaking of fat people, let’s hope Luka pulls this off
Celtics in 5. All the talk about how can Celtics stop Luka is missing the point: they don't need to. They just need to stop Kyrie or the others, and make their 3s
Luka had 37/12/11 with 14/25 FG and 3 TO against them in the RS - the Mavs lost by 28
Luka had 37/12/11 with 14/25 FG and 3 TO against them in the RS - the Mavs lost by 28
Mavs in 6. Have a momentum going into it with everyone hitting the form in the best possible time being better and better with each passing round with two of their best players thriving in big moments.
was that post Washington and gafford trades or before?
I’m predicting Mavs just because of the c’s easier ride so far. It’s hard to gauge for me how good they really are compared to these playoff Mavs
The blowout loss was on March 1st and after the trades; Boston hit 21 threes and Gafford played six minutes - he's upped his game in the playoffs. That was a Mavs side in the stretch of five losses in six games run in late Feb/early March; Celtics was the third loss.
They went 16-2 down the stretch before resting starters in the final two games with seeds locked in, both blowout losses. They're not the same Mavs as the Jan 22 and Mar 1 losses to Boston but the Celtics are still a damn good team, the best in the league this season. Dallas has a great chance though, could go either way. It's gonna come down to Boston stopping Irving - they probably won't stop Doncic consistently - and if Porzingis provides a healthy third scoring option. Dallas will need two players chipping in a consistent 15-25 to offset any struggles from the Mavs duo. I fecking hope the Mavs do it.
All I want is Kyrie stepping on the inbred leprechaun logo after Dallas wins the chip.
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Just curious, do you guys get a live TNT feed in Germany, or are you watching this on Youtube/social?
Purely YouTube but then I think their YouTube channel, and House of Highlights, upload pretty much all of their analysis.
I watch NBA through Dazn but that's all in German.
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Thank you - good to know!