Middle East Politics

[Kaos]

You can justifiably argue that Israel does not ‘warrant any benefit of the doubt’. In fact I said that myself a few posts up this thread. They created that through their own actions.

But the problem with not trusting a liar is that in the event that the liar is telling the truth, you will have been incorrect in disbelieving them. Your disbelief would be justified, sure. But you’d still have got it wrong, and I think that’s complete rubbish is what’s happening here. Time will tell, I guess.

Eh, by that logic then we shouldn't be jumping to conclusions the next time Putin mobilises and amasses a considerable military force at the border of another sovereign nation then - on the off chance he could be 'shoring up his security concerns' with benevolent reasoning?

If Israel wants to be treated as a good faith actor in the region, it would do well to precede its cross-border operations with gestures like reversing their already established colonial aspirations, namely ceding control of existing occupied territory and reeling in the settler terrorists. Until then it would be treated as a belligerent aggressor every time they hop borders, and rightly so.

 

[Mavs]

For the record, there was a small rebel attack from Syria on the UN outpost in the buffer zone on December 7th:

https://press.un.org/en/2024/db241209.doc.htm

Question: Very good Monday to you. I’m sorry if I missed it while you were discussing UNDOF. There was an Israeli claim over the weekend that Israeli forces teamed with UNDOF forces to repel a rebel attack. Can you speak to the veracity of that claim?

Spokesman: Look, what I can tell you is that there was an attack on 7 December, where armed individuals climbed the wall of a UN position near Hadar. It’s position 10A for those of you who have a map. Following an exchange of fire with UN peacekeepers who were protecting the position, the base was partially looted. There were no casualties. And later that same day, UNDOF personnel engaged with leaders of the local community and recovered a number of the looted items, including a number of the weapons and ammunition that had been taken. As far as UNDOF is concerned, they have no information about the IDF allegedly engaging with these armed people.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-ne...isting-un-forces-in-repelling-attack-in-syria

The UN force, UNDOF, confirmed its personnel observed "unidentified armed individuals in the area of separation, including approximately 20 who went into one of the mission's positions in the northern part of the area of separation", a spokesperson for UN Peacekeeping told AFP.

 

[africanspur]

I think you are letting your hatred of Israel get in the way of coming to a rational explanation.

I bet you countries bordering Israel, such as Jordan and Lebanon, will be quietly delighted at the destruction of advanced weaponry. They’ll never say it out loud of course, but it’s hugely beneficial to them.

As for this being a land grab, that simply doesn’t make sense. It’s a tiny portion of land with no real value, but with a real risk of being the starting point for an attack on Israel like the October 2023 attacks.

Mount Hermon has huge strategic value.

I’m going to stuck my head out here and say that land will never return to Syria.

 

[NicolaSacco]

Eh, by that logic then we shouldn't be jumping to conclusions the next time Putin mobilises and amasses a considerable military force at the border of another sovereign nation then - on the off chance he could be 'shoring up his security concerns' with benevolent reasoning?

If Israel wants to be treated as a good faith actor in the region, it would do well to precede its cross-border operations with gestures like reversing their already established colonial aspirations, namely ceding control of existing occupied territory and reeling in the settler terrorists. Until then it would be treated as a belligerent aggressor every time they hop borders, and rightly so.

As I said, we are entitled to jump to conclusions, but that is all they’ll be.

I cannot see any possible comparison to Putin with regards to this holding of border posts, so I’m not going to keep discussing him.

 

[NicolaSacco]

Mount Hermon has huge strategic value.

I’m going to stuck my head out here and say that land will never return to Syria.

Interesting, do you mean that none of the lands will be returned, or just the part of them that takes in some of Mt Hermon?

 

[africanspur]

I think that’s complete rubbish, and will be shown to be the case. Israel will spend more on the operation to secure the border than they could possibly gain from having that tiny bit of land. So the maths doesn’t add up.

I can see neither of us are going to change our minds, so we’ll just have to see over the next few months if Israel starts populating the area like they did in the West Bank, Gaza etc, or if Netanyahu suddenly starts talking about it as land Israel has a right to own in perpetuity. Neither of those things will happen though.

Not like Netanyahu already talks about the Golan heights that way. Or that Smotrich talks about including Damascus in a greater Israel.

Interesting, do you mean that none of the lands will be returned, or just the part of them that takes in some of Mt Hermon?

Both the Golan heights and the land taken on this recent Israeli ‘special military operation’.

 

[Mavs]

As I said, we are entitled to jump to conclusions, but that is all they’ll be.

I cannot see any possible comparison to Putin with regards to this holding of border posts, so I’m not going to keep discussing him.

I agree, I don't see this as a fair comparison. There is an actual possible threat from Syria towards Isreal which is non-existant in the case of Russia-Ukraine. And in this thread people are very concerned, rightly, about the group of rebels being islamist extremist, offshoot of ISIS/Al-qaeda. So why would Israel as their neighbour not take this seriously as security concern.

 

[africanspur]

According to Aaron Zelin, who is the author of what I think is the only English-language book-length study of HTS, there have been protests against various economic policies and corruption, against arbitrary detainment and use of torture in truly grim prisons, and more generally against restrictive social policies targeting individual and womens’ rights. Zelin describes one relatively benign form of response from HTS:

“individuals involved in protests or comments online have allegedly been forced to publish videos of themselves apologizing to HTS and its leader Jawlani.”

However it has been a lot worse in many cases, and HTS have also targeted opposition media outlets and individuals. To give one noteworthy example - you may remember the regular anti-regime protests held in the town of Kafr Nabl, whereby by local residents would demonstrate holding signs directed at Western audiences:

HTS assassinated one of the main organizers of these iconic protests, Raed Fares, in 2018.

Zelin concludes that “it is evident that while Jawlani and HTS are attempting to distance themselves from their past associations with AQ and IS, they have turned in many ways into a local regime that acts like other regional authoritarian states.”

Thank you. Not surprising but disappointing nonetheless.

To be honest, I’m not expecting a democratic society here. It would be weird if it did happen after all that’s passed. What I would love though is some degree of pluralism, acceptance and coexistence with minorities , security and an improvement of the economy. Then we can see.

 

[africanspur]

I agree, I don't see this as a fair comparison. There is an actual possible threat from Syria towards Isreal which is non-existant in the case of Russia-Ukraine. And in this thread people are very concerned, rightly, about the group of rebels being islamist extremist, offshoot of ISIS/Al-qaeda. So why would Israel as their neighbour not take this seriously as security concern.

Apologies sorry. Putin is uniquely evil and nobody should ever be compared to him or his actions.

 

[NicolaSacco]

Not like Netanyahu already talks about the Golan heights that way. Or that Smotrich talks about including Damascus in a greater Israel.



Both the Golan heights and the land taken on this recent Israeli ‘special military operation’.

The Golan Heights have been in Israeli hands since 1967, and de facto annexed in 1981. Neither were anything to do with Netanyahu but yes I agree that Israel will likely never return them, and that they feel legally justified in not doing so. I think that that is just plain wrong, although I’m not a scholar of international law

I’ll have to disagree with you on the land taken in the past few days, I think they’ve already committed to the UN/US that this is a short term occupation, and the benefits of keeping it will be far outweighed by the costs of having lied. But, as has been a fairly frequent theme raised on this thread, it could be many months or years until either of us is shown to have called it correctly.

 

[Mavs]

Apologies sorry. Putin is uniquely evil and nobody should ever be compared to him or his actions.

That is not at all what I was implying, that is not a fair interpretation of my comment. And as I posted above, rebels have already attacked the UN outpost in this operation. So there is a real threat there.

 

[africanspur]

The Golan Heights have been in Israeli hands since 1967, and de facto annexed in 1981. Neither were anything to do with Netanyahu but yes I agree that Israel will likely never return them, and that they feel legally justified in not doing so. I think that that is just plain wrong, although I’m not a scholar of international law

I’ll have to disagree with you on the land taken in the past few days, I think they’ve already committed to the UN/US that this is a short term occupation, and the benefits of keeping it will be far outweighed by the costs of having lied. But, as has been a fairly frequent theme raised on this thread, it could be many months or years until either of us is shown to have called it correctly.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/netanyahu-golan-heights-israel-syria-assad-4796871

What would be the costs of having lied for Israel? What have been the costs of lying over and over again in the past year? Or the costs of lying over and over again about settlements?

 

[RedC]

With this wave of prisoners emerging from Assad’s dungeons, I’ll be very interested to see if Abu Musab al-Suri surfaces, while hoping guys like him are completely sidelined in the new Syria:

That's Gerry Murphy from Cabra.

 

[NicolaSacco]

Apologies sorry. Putin is uniquely evil and nobody should ever be compared to him or his actions.

Don’t be weird about it, just accept that they are different enough scenarios

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/netanyahu-golan-heights-israel-syria-assad-4796871

What would be the costs of having lied for Israel? What have been the costs of lying over and over again in the past year? Or the costs of lying over and over again about settlements?

I was expecting a reply along those lines. I think Israel does incur costs for its actions, mainly economic, but that they are almost always kept secret. The US will always support Israel in the UN, and save their criticisms for private. As far as I know Trump is the only president who has recognised Israel’s West Bank settlements as legal, all others haven’t, and this will have made the Israeli governments life more difficult, and the settlements themselves less economically viable.

The problem is, if the US ‘only’ gives Israel $40 billion in aid, where it had previously planned to give $50 billion, it doesn’t look like a consequence, but it is.

 

[africanspur]

That is not at all what I was implying, that is not a fair interpretation of my comment. And as I posted above, rebels have already attacked the UN outpost in this operation. So there is a real threat there.

There is a persistent effort by some, even as Israel’s crimes escalate, to constantly downplay it in reference to Putins crimes.

Most people referencing Putin or Russia couldn’t really care less if there’s specific nuances about the situations. The main gripe is with the horrendous hypocrisy towards the overall situations from the west. Whether individual bits of the 2 situations are exactly the same are irrelevant in that case.

I have no doubt that Turkey and the USA, as scummy as they are, are not going to keep the land they’ve taken in this conflict. With 100% certainty. Can anyone say the same about Israel?

 

[AfonsoAlves]

To answer the question of "Why do you think the new government won't be functional and peaceful?"

Well, I'm getting a lot of reports and videos sent to me of POW's being gunned down, people going through offices asking whether they were government workers, and then shooting them if they are, and of Alawai's being lynched in the streets. Three of my contacts in Syria have gone into hiding.

So yeah, doesn't give me much hope.

 

[africanspur]

Don’t be weird about it, just accept that they are different enough scenarios


I was expecting a reply along those lines. I think Israel does incur costs for its actions, mainly economic, but that they are almost always kept secret. The US will always support Israel in the UN, and save their criticisms for private. As far as I know Trump is the only president who has recognised Israel’s West Bank settlements as legal, all others haven’t, and this will have made the Israeli governments life more difficult, and the settlements themselves less economically viable.

The problem is, if the US ‘only’ gives Israel $40 billion in aid, where it had previously planned to give $50 billion, it doesn’t look like a consequence, but it is.

It’s not being weird, read my post above as a response to that.

So they buy them a Ferrari and not a lambourghini? Poor Israel, receiving ‘only’ 40 billion.

The expansion of Israeli settlements was no different between 2010 and 2014 vs 2018 to 2022. In fact as far as I can tell, the greatest pace of expansion has come under Biden.

It has been in general since 1967 unstoppable, regardless of American president or any pressure, feigned or otherwise, they may have put on. Biden did not reverse any of Trumps Israel policies.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

It’s not being weird, read my post above as a response to that.

So they buy them a Ferrari and not a lambourghini? Poor Israel, receiving ‘only’ 40 billion.

The expansion of Israeli settlements was no different between 2010 and 2014 vs 2018 to 2022. In fact as far as I can tell, the greatest pace of expansion has come under Biden.

It has been in general since 1967 unstoppable, regardless of American president or any pressure, feigned or otherwise, they may have put on. Biden did not reverse any of Trumps Israel policies.

Errr, without Operation Nickle Grass there was a genuine chance that Israel would have been overrun in 1973.

By the time the supplies came in, three divisions had less than a days ammo left.

 

[NicolaSacco]

It’s not being weird, read my post above as a response to that.

So they buy them a Ferrari and not a lambourghini? Poor Israel, receiving ‘only’ 40 billion.

The expansion of Israeli settlements was no different between 2010 and 2014 vs 2018 to 2022. In fact as far as I can tell, the greatest pace of expansion has come under Biden.

It has been in general since 1967 unstoppable, regardless of American president or any pressure, feigned or otherwise, they may have put on. Biden did not reverse any of Trumps Israel policies.

Ha ha, sorry about the first part. I wrote it and decided not to send it as I saw your point. But then it somehow added to my reply to your later message!

As I acknowledged myself receiving a slightly lower vast sum doesn’t appear to look like negative consequences but that’s exactly what it is for the receiver. They can’t by buy things they were expecting to buy. And that will be used as leverage. So only opinion they will honour their word here. The point I was making about Trump is that he somehow got the state department (maybe?) to say that Israel’s settlements were legal.

I’d imagine the US and Israel negotiate with each other frequently, and, though they are clearly on a very long leash, they will listen to the Americans.

I’ve actually lost track a little on what we’re disagreeing on. I think that in this case Israel is telling the truth that their posts on the border will be temporary, and not a West Bank style land grab. But the proof will be in the pudding. We are both reading between the lines and one of us will be wrong. My feeling is that they have come out very early and very clearly saying it is a temporary occupation and that will indeed turn out to be the case.

 

[Kaos]

That is not at all what I was implying, that is not a fair interpretation of my comment. And as I posted above, rebels have already attacked the UN outpost in this operation. So there is a real threat there.

Have Syrian Islamist rebel factions ever attacked Israel? The only incident reported was ISIS mistakenly firing rockets at Israeli positions intended for regime targets, they swiftly apologised for that after too. There were also credible reports of the IDF arming Syrian rebels and possibly treating their wounded. And its not as if the US would ever allow Israel to come under threat, the moment that becomes a remote responsibility you'd imagine they swiftly return to their favourite pastime of drone/air striking the threat.

Besides you'd think the Israelis would be giddy at anyone attacking UN targets as they essentially consider them an extension of Hamas.

 

[africanspur]

Errr, without Operation Nickle Grass there was a genuine chance that Israel would have been overrun in 1973.

By the time the supplies came in, three divisions had less than a days ammo left.

What has been unstoppable are the settlements. That is what I was talking about. Regardless of American president or any ‘punishments’ they send their way.

 

[The Firestarter]

To answer the question of "Why do you think the new government won't be functional and peaceful?"

Well, I'm getting a lot of reports and videos sent to me of POW's being gunned down, people going through offices asking whether they were government workers, and then shooting them if they are, and of Alawai's being lynched in the streets. Three of my contacts in Syria have gone into hiding.

So yeah, doesn't give me much hope.

Can't see anything other than Lybia 2.0 situation

 

[africanspur]

Ha ha, sorry about the first part. I wrote it and decided not to send it as I saw your point. But then it somehow added to my reply to your later message!

As I acknowledged myself receiving a slightly lower vast sum doesn’t appear to look like negative consequences but that’s exactly what it is for the receiver. They can’t by buy things they were expecting to buy. And that will be used as leverage. So only opinion they will honour their word here. The point I was making about Trump is that he somehow got the state department (maybe?) to say that Israel’s settlements were legal.

I’d imagine the US and Israel negotiate with each other frequently, and, though they are clearly on a very long leash, they will listen to the Americans.

I’ve actually lost track a little on what we’re disagreeing on. I think that in this case Israel is telling the truth that their posts on the border will be temporary, and not a West Bank style land grab. But the proof will be in the pudding. We are both reading between the lines and one of us will be wrong. My feeling is that they have come out very early and very clearly saying it is a temporary occupation and that will indeed turn out to be the case.

I’m sorry, I don’t really know how to engage with this line of argument.

Israel will listen because America will give them huge amounts of money for free, instead of slightly more than huge amounts of money for free. It’s why I gave the example I gave above. My child beat someone up so to discipline them, I’m buying them the Nintendo switch, not the ps5. That will show them.

And the counter point I was making about trump is that Biden has changed nothing about those policies. And that the settlements during Obama’s time seem to have been about the same as during trumps time. And that they seem to have actually been highest during Biden time. Which from your initial post I imagine you’d find surprising.

Our core disagreement is the extent to which you and I believe Israel and the USA act according to international norms in this case. I think you believe it’s a relatively normal relationship and they’re both normal countries, acting in reasonable ways.

I think Israel is a toxic actor in this region. That they have shattered red line after red line during this current conflict and the repercussions from the only power that matters have been minimal.

Therefore you believe that Israel will be constrained by international norms in this case and give the land back at some point. I do not see much evidence of Israel being constrained by international norms and therefore see it as likely they will not give the land back.

As you said we will see. Israel are great at creating ‘facts on the ground’.

 

[NicolaSacco]

I’m sorry, I don’t really know how to engage with this line of argument.

Israel will listen because America will give them huge amounts of money for free, instead of slightly more than huge amounts of money for free. It’s why I gave the example I gave above. My child beat someone up so to discipline them, I’m buying them the Nintendo switch, not the ps5. That will show them.

And the counter point I was making about trump is that Biden has changed nothing about those policies. And that the settlements during Obama’s time seem to have been about the same as during trumps time. And that they seem to have actually been highest during Biden time. Which from your initial post I imagine you’d find surprising.

Our core disagreement is the extent to which you and I believe Israel and the USA act according to international norms in this case. I think you believe it’s a relatively normal relationship and they’re both normal countries, acting in reasonable ways.

I think Israel is a toxic actor in this region. That they have shattered red line after red line during this current conflict and the repercussions from the only power that matters have been minimal.

Therefore you believe that Israel will be constrained by international norms in this case and give the land back at some point. I do not see much evidence of Israel being constrained by international norms and therefore see it as likely they will not give the land back.

As you said we will see. Israel are great at creating ‘facts on the ground’.

It was not the best post I’ve ever made, I’ll admit that. Yes, all we can do is wait and see. Hopefully you will be pleasantly surprised.

 

[Giggsyking]

Putin has invaded lands in Ukraine though, which have sizeable populations, lots of heavy industry, and fossil fuels. Now THAT is an actual land grab. It’s a financial and political decision. It really is a false comparison.

You are still insisting on "tiny bits of land". It's twice the size of Gaza.
They invaded Mount fecking Hermon, its not a tiny piece of land, its a fecking mountain overlooking the whole capital of Syria and splitting Syrian and Lebanese South. The mountain is a strategic position to control both Syria's capital and naighboring Southern Lebanon.

 

[2cents]

Can't see anything other than Lybia 2.0 situation

The suffering and destruction experienced by Syrians at the hands of Assad and others since 2011 is on a significantly greater scale than Libya’s troubles over the same period of time, so this might be preferable.

 

[The Firestarter]

The suffering and destruction experienced by Syrians at the hands of Assad and others since 2011 is on a significantly greater scale than Libya’s troubles over the same period of time, so this might be preferable.

I meant the situation after Ghadafi got knifed and the second civil war.

 

[NicolaSacco]

You are still insisting on "tiny bits of land". It's twice the size of Gaza.
They invaded Mount fecking Hermon, its not a tiny piece of land, its a fecking mountain overlooking the whole capital of Syria and splitting Syrian and Lebanese South. The mountain is a strategic position to control both Syria's capital and naighboring Southern Lebanon.

Why are you saying I’m ’still insisting on it’ as if I’ve been in some kind of drawn out debate about the size?! You are the first person to challenge me for saying it.
Whilst you are presumably right about the size compared to Gaza, I don’t think the two are really comparable for obvious reasons. The Golan is easily 5 times the size of Gaza but clearly less important in terms of the lives of the people who are living (if you can even call it that) there.

I understand why Mt Hermon is important (been there and seen it), it’s the tallest of some pretty low mountains, not like the Alps for example, and as you say Damascus is very close.

Beyond that I don’t really know what question you are putting to me. I think the IDF will abandon it fairly swiftly unlike the Golan. They’re doing everything at a very fast pace, which implies that they have, either internally or with the US, agreed to time limit the operation.

 

[2cents]

I meant the situation after Ghadafi got knifed and the second civil war.

Yes I know. While that was happening a much worse civil war was playing out in Syria.

Sorry, I’ve seen this take a number of times in the last week - “we don’t want Syria to become another Libya”, or some such variation. As if Syria hasn’t just gone through a war that left almost half a million dead, half the population displaced, multiple chemical weapons attacks, forced famines, mass urban destruction, etc. etc.

 

[neverdie]

 

[The Firestarter]

Yes I know. While that was happening a much worse civil war was playing out in Syria.

Sorry, I’ve seen this take a number of times in the last week - “we don’t want Syria to become another Libya”, or some such variation. As if Syria hasn’t just gone through a war that left almost half a million dead, half the population displaced, multiple chemical weapons attacks, forced famines, mass urban destruction, etc. etc.

You are somehow thinking that I am suggesting Assad remaining in power would have been better. That's not the case.

 

[Mavs]

Have Syrian Islamist rebel factions ever attacked Israel? The only incident reported was ISIS mistakenly firing rockets at Israeli positions intended for regime targets, they swiftly apologised for that after too. There were also credible reports of the IDF arming Syrian rebels and possibly treating their wounded. And its not as if the US would ever allow Israel to come under threat, the moment that becomes a remote responsibility you'd imagine they swiftly return to their favourite pastime of drone/air striking the threat.

Besides you'd think the Israelis would be giddy at anyone attacking UN targets as they essentially consider them an extension of Hamas.

Well they did on Saturday, or attempted to do so, crossing into the buffer zone attacking UN peacekeepers and stealing weapons. It was a relatively small attack and I don't know which faction it was exactly, but you can imagine that now that the main offensive against the regime is over, more of these attacks could occur and specially if the rebels acquired large amounts of heavy weapons left behind by Russia or the SAA. And we now have ofcourse a completely different and potentially more unstable/hostile government in Syria (towards Israel) than Assads government.

So I don't think it is fair to compare this expansion of the buffer zone to Russias annexation of Ukrainain territory (which was a point raised in this thread and I was disagreeing with) where there was no possible security threat, whereas Israel and Syria have been in conflict at various times since the foundation of Israel and now Syria has an unstable Islamic extremist government. And I don't think this is a pretense for some larger invasion by Israel - unless they come under further attacks. There were some unconfirmed reports of tanks going further into Syria though, so maybe that assessment is wrong.

 

[neverdie]

The Turks have been planning it for six months. They asked Assad if they'd allow Turkish troops into the north qua their concerns regarding the Kurds. Assad said no. So the Turks, by all accounts, now, went to Washington instead, and floated this operation.

Assad was also warned by the Iranians at least several months back.

So there you have it. To us, who are not clued into intel networks, (and a select few at that I'd imagine), it was a surprise. To the Turks and Americans it was probably inevitable. The state - Syrian - was very weak by every metric by the time this happened and so it just folded.

Sort of without a shot fired (metaphorically) which is mental considering how bloody this has been for 15 years. The regime knew it was over.

Watch the video above. Well worth it. Explains last few months in detail.

 

[Kaos]

Well they did on Saturday, or attempted to do so, crossing into the buffer zone attacking UN peacekeepers and stealing weapons. It was a relatively small attack and I don't know which faction it was exactly, but you can imagine that now that the main offensive against the regime is over, more of these attacks could occur and specially if the rebels acquired large amounts of heavy weapons left behind by Russia or the SAA. And we now have ofcourse a completely different and potentially more unstable/hostile government in Syria (towards Israel) than Assads government.

So I don't think it is fair to compare this expansion of the buffer zone to Russias annexation of Ukrainain territory (which was a point raised in this thread and I was disagreeing with) where there was no possible security threat, whereas Israel and Syria have been in conflict at various times since the foundation of Israel and now Syria has an unstable Islamic extremist government. And I don't think this is a pretense for some larger invasion by Israel - unless they come under further attacks. There were some unconfirmed reports of tanks going further into Syria though, so maybe that assessment is wrong.

But again, what evidence is there that these rebel factions possess a threat to Israel? The UN and Israel are not natural bedfellows (if anything they're at loggerheads), and like I've mentioned there's no clashes between the Israelis and rebel factions over the course of the civil war. In fact both shared a common adversary in Assad, and his regional allies. None of these rebel factions are interested in Israel, and all the friction is likely to be constrained within Syria's borders with the various factions plotting for a piece of the pie.

 

[Mavs]

But again, what evidence is there that these rebel factions possess a threat to Israel? The UN and Israel are not natural bedfellows (if anything they're at loggerheads), and like I've mentioned there's no clashes between the Israelis and rebel factions over the course of the civil war. In fact both shared a common adversary in Assad, and his regional allies. None of these rebel factions are interested in Israel, and all the friction is likely to be constrained within Syria's borders with the various factions plotting for a piece of the pie.

Definitely they had a common adversary in Assad, and Israels actions against Hezbollah greatly benefited the rebels. But just because there is a common enemy doesn't mean that all the rebel factions are friendly with Israel, specially now that the main enemy (Assad) is gone. And like has been reported, one of those factions did attack Israel, or rather the buffer zone, on Saturday.

Anyway, this discussion is probably not going to lead to any conclusion right now, there is just too much uncertainty and chaos to say for sure what will happen. I hope that Israel will retract back beyond the buffer zone once things settle down within Syria.

And as we speak Turkey + SNA opened up an attack on Kurdist held territories:

 

[africanspur]

Well they did on Saturday, or attempted to do so, crossing into the buffer zone attacking UN peacekeepers and stealing weapons. It was a relatively small attack and I don't know which faction it was exactly, but you can imagine that now that the main offensive against the regime is over, more of these attacks could occur and specially if the rebels acquired large amounts of heavy weapons left behind by Russia or the SAA. And we now have ofcourse a completely different and potentially more unstable/hostile government in Syria (towards Israel) than Assads government.

So I don't think it is fair to compare this expansion of the buffer zone to Russias annexation of Ukrainain territory (which was a point raised in this thread and I was disagreeing with) where there was no possible security threat, whereas Israel and Syria have been in conflict at various times since the foundation of Israel and now Syria has an unstable Islamic extremist government. And I don't think this is a pretense for some larger invasion by Israel - unless they come under further attacks. There were some unconfirmed reports of tanks going further into Syria though, so maybe that assessment is wrong.

Let’s be completely clear. The Golan heights is already occupied Syrian territory. From a war Israel started. Every country other than the 2 deluded in question acknowledge it as such. That is the buffer zone.

This would be like trump coming in and freezing the conflict as it is. With Russia already occupying some Ukrainian territory. Then Russia later on taking more territory in a ‘special military operation ’ to provide a buffer zone for…..their buffer zone.

 

[africanspur]

Seems Israel have sunk multiple navy vessels in Latakia too. Undoubtedly ISIS were just about to launch devastating attacks on Israel with those too.

 

[2cents]

Thank you. Not surprising but disappointing nonetheless.

To be honest, I’m not expecting a democratic society here. It would be weird if it did happen after all that’s passed. What I would love though is some degree of pluralism, acceptance and coexistence with minorities , security and an improvement of the economy. Then we can see.

I think you’ll agree that any hope along those lines should be placed in the Syrian people who have continued to protest and resist the various forms of oppression and violence they’ve suffered since 2011, rather than any armed group.

 

[africanspur]

I think you’ll agree that any hope along those lines should be placed in the Syrian people who have continued to protest and resist the various forms of oppression and violence they’ve suffered since 2011, rather than any armed group.

100%. I am so desperate for Syria to become a stable , prosperous country. I really hope the Syrian public can push for that.

Like you said, comparisons to Libya seem a bit off to me seeing as what the Syrians have already gone through seems multitudes worse to me compared to what happened in Libya.

 

[africanspur]

IDF acknowledges operations beyond the buffer zone​

The Israel Defense Forces has acknowledged for the first time that its troops are operating beyond the demilitarised buffer zone in the Golan Heights.

In a briefing, the IDF international spokesperson Nadav Shoshani says Israel "wanted to make clear the reality" that its forces were operating in "area of separation, and then a few additional points".

Shoshani says: “When we say a few additional points, we're talking the area of separation or the area of the buffer zone in vicinity."

He adds that these places are "points for defence" and the IDF is operating as part of a "process of trying to make sure the area keeps safe" and ensure stability.

But Shoshani also strenuously denies reports in some Syrian media that troops are advancing on Damascus, describing them as "completely false" and "fake news".


Wink wink.