Even in my small hometown there were celebrations last evening. No idea what the future holds for Syria. But I can’t help but feel happy that these people got this moment of joy, at least.
Middle East Politics
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
Somehow I dont see those opposition forces making some kind of normaln government nor peace there in the foreseeable future.
No one is talking about them.
A lot of Lebanese kidnapped prisoners also being released. Some coming back after 30-40 years. Incredible scenes. These people were all presumed to be dead by their families.
Even Michel Aoun, a pro-Syrian major Christian political party leader and former president, lied and said there are no Lebanese prisoners in Syria in a visit 10 years ago to Syria. May God help him from the ill-wishes of the mothers of these prisoners.
A lot of Lebanese families who have had family members kidnapped are circulating old photos of their loved ones on social media. Hopefully some families find each other for some closure. A lot of parents died while their kids were kidnapped, thinking they were dead, without knowing they were rotting away and being tortured in a Syrian prison.
Most of these kidnapped were opposition parties to the regime or even Lebanese Army members who were defending the presidential palace when the Syrians took over.
Why did Syria move into Lebabon under Hafez Assad? What was the "rationale"?
In his world (and former history) Lebanon is a part of Greater Syria. It was more land and more territory.
Plus Lebanon as a location is more valuable to Syria than say random land somewhere. Lively port connecting it to Europe/Mediterranean + gas in the sea.
We will have to see with actual actions of course. Al-Jolani’s words so far have been strikingly conciliatory, as well as nationalistic (ie no global/regional agenda).
I was also told by a couple of Syrians I know that in the areas HTS were ruling over the past few years that churches were rebuilt and property which had been appropriated from Christians was given back , much to the chagrin of other groups.
We’ve got to remember that HTS are neither the only group, nor are they even in control of the whole country. So we will see of course.
In the context of the Lebanese Civil War that erupted in 1975, Syrian involvement was probably primarily aimed at securing some measure of control over Palestinian actions, in order to:
(a) prevent the PLO from dragging Syria into a confrontation with Israel in Lebanon that Syria could not win;
(b) prevent Arafat from striking a separate peace with Israel which would leave Syria alone facing Israel at the negotiating table;
(c) prevent rival Arab states from establishing their own measure of influence over the Palestinians which would potentially place limits on Syrian freedom of action in Lebanon.
Given the chaotic ebb and flow of the war, the above rationale led to the Syrians to support and oppose almost every faction involved at one point or another. For example, Syrian involvement during the first phase of the war in 1975-76 was initially in support of the Maronite forces against the Palestinians, only to reverse course shortly after. The Syrians also had favored factions within the PLO, and the Syrian Ba’th Party had its own Palestinian militia, Sa’iqa, which they used at times to undermine Arafat as well as support operations against others.
As @Slevs notes above, all this played out in the broader context of the Syrian Arab nationalist framing of Lebanon as a constituent element of historic greater Syria, whether as part of the wider Arab homeland (the Ba’th Party’s basic ideology) or Greater Syria (the approach taken by the SSNP which influenced Hafiz al-Assad a little in later years although the party never had much material impact). Consequently, Lebanon was regarded in Damascus as rightfully falling under Syria’s sphere of influence, and this continued following the end of the war in 1990, as the Syrian occupation continued as a kind of guarantor of the status quo .
Thanks!
Looks like the Turkish backed rebels are fighting the SDF Kurds in the north and have taken Manbij.
As predicted.
Everyone wants a slice of Syrian cake.
Russia wants it's access to the Mediterranean. Why would the new leaders, whose people were mercilessly bombed by Russia on behalf of Assad, want to keep up relations with Russia?
There is no unified leadership. The unifying mission between the disparate groups was to get rid of Assad. Now that's been achieved, it's a free-for-all and all kinds of deals will be made by various factions.
Good summary. I could never put it as eloquently as this. It was a cocktail of reasons with double crosses riddled throughout that time period.
The late journalist Patrick Seale, who was as close to Hafiz al-Assad as any Western analyst, wrote this in 1965, a few years before Assad seized power:
“It is as a mirror of rival interests on an international scale that Syria deserves special attention. Indeed, her internal affairs are almost meaningless unless related to the wider context, first of her Arab neighbors and then of other interested powers. It is no accident that Syria should reflect in her internal political structure the rivalries of her neighbors since, as I hope to show, whoever would lead the Middle East must control her.”
This narrative seems to gloss over the fact that the rebels were already rapidly gobbling up land immediately following the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire last month. Therefore any decisions that were eventually made by the likes of Turkey & Russia were imposed on them by the realities on the ground; most notably the inevitability that Damascus would soon fall anyway.
Not sure about that. There's a Reuters article that hints at Turkey being informed about rebel activities.
Interesting name for a base.
I'm sure they were informed given they are tacitly allied, but all the gains were made by the rebels themselves. Therefore the narrative that Turkey and Russia carved up the future of Syria is probably a wee bit overstated.
Any chance Assad falls out a window in Russia? Is he in any way useful to Putin anymore?
Putin has been hosting Yanukovich for a decade, so unlikely given that Assad allowed Putin access to his Syrian ports for years.
I find comments such as these so bizarre.
What is this based on? The revolutionaries have overturned a brutal, depraved totalitarian dictatorship that has ruled with an iron fist since 1970, with the country embroiled in this revolution since 2011. Surely anyone can see that an organic revolution led by Syrians for Syria will put the wills and needs of the people of Syria first and foremost. And lastly, the early noises from al Jolani and Co seem to back up their words with actions (or actions with words in this case).
Nah, he'll live out his remaining days in luxury unfortunately. If Russia wants the support of whichever autocrat they back in the future, then they have to guarantee their safety no matter what.
Workers still digging in Sednaya prison trying to reach the underground levels. No one knows how to reach them through the normal pathways.
A lot of families here still waiting for any news of lost loved ones from 30-40 years ago.
A lot of families here still waiting for any news of lost loved ones from 30-40 years ago.
Sounds like a recipe for disaster.
This is very interesting. I don't know if you noticed but rebels from the south approached the two airports in Damascus very quickly, and stopped outside each one, they didn't try to take control. I wondered at the time if it was because they wanted to verify who was leaving, and that now does seem to be the case.
Queenie would have put him up for a few days until he got sorted.
Syrian oppositions said they won't impose any religious dress code on women and vowed to guarantee personal freedom for everyone.
In a statement posted on social media, the insurgents' General Command said, “It is strictly forbidden to interfere with women’s dress or impose any request related to their clothing or appearance, including requests for modesty.”
https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/amp/putin-grants-political-asylum-to-assad-kremlin-confirms-203445
In a statement posted on social media, the insurgents' General Command said, “It is strictly forbidden to interfere with women’s dress or impose any request related to their clothing or appearance, including requests for modesty.”
https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/amp/putin-grants-political-asylum-to-assad-kremlin-confirms-203445
It's like a modern update version of discovering the unknown atrocities that came with Hitlers downfall and kicking out the Nazi's
My browsers don't like that website. Looks like a site when you turn off CSS.
Fitting, as it's about as reliable as that promise.
Heavily armed groups with very different objectives are going to vie for power now. I can't see it being anything other than a disaster.
HTS have said they’re providing an amnesty to any soldiers conscripted into the army under Assad.