Middle East Politics

[NYAS]

I don't think Al-Assad represented any trouble for them. It was telling that in the early confrontations with Hezbollah, the Israeli army crossed into Syrian territories and Al-Assad pulled away his troops.

He wasn’t any trouble militarily of course. But he presented a logistical nuisance in terms of the Iran > Hezbollah supply line.

 

[NYAS]

I think among the various regional and international players with a stake in the Syrian conflict - Turkey, Qatar, Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, America - Israel has been the least significant/influential player in shaping its course. And I suspect the Israelis would prefer a weakened Assad to remain in Damascus rather than an Islamist coalition whose goals and trajectory are so uncertain.

If “by shaping its course” you mean over the last 14 years in general, I agree.

But a rare opportunity has presented itself at the current moment and I think the temptation is too strong to resist. I also think it’s clear that they view Shia Islamism as more of a threat than the Sunni version.

 

[2cents]

a rare opportunity has presented itself at the current moment and I think the temptation is too strong to resist. I also think it’s clear that they view Shia Islamism as more of a threat than the Sunni version

I think that’s true in the short-term, but not long-term (and I’m thinking in terms of decades here). Long-term I think they see the Shi’a as potential allies as an embattled minority sect battling Sunni supremacism, as they saw them pre-1979, and they are confident that the regime in Tehran is destined to fall.

What the Israelis want is a weak, divided Syria. A Sunni Islamist triumph in Damascus potentially complicates that goal. Don’t be surprised to see talk of support for an Alawite state in north-west Syria emerging from the beltway think-tanks in the coming months.

In terms of the regional power with the most at stake here, it’s clearly Turkey struggling the most to resist getting a handle on this historic moment.

 

[Kaos]

I think among the various regional and international players with a stake in the Syrian conflict - Turkey, Qatar, Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, America - Israel has been the least significant/influential player in shaping its course. And I suspect the Israelis would prefer a weakened Assad to remain in Damascus rather than an Islamist coalition whose goals and trajectory are so uncertain.

Not sure I agree. Sure, the Assad regime in isolation is pretty much a paper tiger as far as the Israelis are concerned, but holistically what worries them the most is a unified, Shia crescent of influence, especially when you factor in their allies - the Iranians, Houthis, Iraqi militias etc. By toppling Assad they've essentially decimated one piece of that puzzle that would unlikely return (considering the demographics of Syria), and would instead have to content with what would likely be a highly unstable replacement government that would likely be poorly backed and isolated. Furthermore the more chaos that ensues in the region keeps the more the optics move away from their genocidal and colonial aspirations.

 

[NYAS]

I think that’s true in the short-term, but not long-term (and I’m thinking in terms of decades here). Long-term I think they see the Shi’a as potential allies as an embattled minority sect battling Sunni supremacism, as they saw them pre-1979, and they are confident that the regime in Tehran is destined to fall.

What the Israelis want is a weak, divided Syria. A Sunni Islamist triumph in Damascus potentially complicates that goal. Don’t be surprised to see talk of support for an Alawite state in north-west Syria emerging from the beltway think-tanks in the coming months.

In terms of the regional power with the most at stake here, it’s clearly Turkey struggling the most to resist getting a handle on this historic moment.

I had forgotten about Turkey, wouldn’t disagree there.

 

[That_Bloke]

I don't think Al-Assad represented any trouble for them. It was telling that in the early confrontations with Hezbollah, the Israeli army crossed into Syrian territories and Al-Assad pulled away his troops.

Weapons to Hezbollah went through Syria. That road may well be now completely severed.

It's massive blow for Hezbollah, Russia and Iran in the region.

 

[2cents]

Not sure I agree. Sure, the Assad regime in isolation is pretty much a paper tiger as far as the Israelis are concerned, but holistically what worries them the most is a unified, Shia crescent of influence, especially when you factor in their allies - the Iranians, Houthis, Iraqi militias etc. By toppling Assad they've essentially decimated one piece of that puzzle that would unlikely return (considering the demographics of Syria), and would instead have to content with what would likely be a highly unstable replacement government that would likely be poorly backed and isolated. Furthermore the more chaos that ensues in the region keeps the more the optics move away from their genocidal and colonial aspirations.

I think my post above serves as a response to this.

 

[That_Bloke]

I think among the various regional and international players with a stake in the Syrian conflict - Turkey, Qatar, Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, America - Israel has been the least significant/influential player in shaping its course. And I suspect the Israelis would prefer a weakened Assad to remain in Damascus rather than an Islamist coalition whose goals and trajectory are so uncertain.

I don't think so.

Even in the worst days of ISIS there's never been a confrontation with Israel. On the contrary. The jihadists have also been remarkably silent about the genocide in Gaza. They get along just fine.

Assad has always been a torn in Israel's side due to his alliance with Iran and the supply line to Hezbollah, Houthis and Iraqi shia militas went through Syria.

 

[That_Bloke]

I think that’s true in the short-term, but not long-term (and I’m thinking in terms of decades here). Long-term I think they see the Shi’a as potential allies as an embattled minority sect battling Sunni supremacism, as they saw them pre-1979, and they are confident that the regime in Tehran is destined to fall.

What the Israelis want is a weak, divided Syria. A Sunni Islamist triumph in Damascus potentially complicates that goal. Don’t be surprised to see talk of support for an Alawite state in north-west Syria emerging from the beltway think-tanks in the coming months.

In terms of the regional power with the most at stake here, it’s clearly Turkey struggling the most to resist getting a handle on this historic moment.

Syria is gone one way or another.

I don't think that the revolution everyone here is cheering is going to be a walk in the park nor that HTS are "reasonable chaps" (Would you look at that. Especially coming from that particular poster) like I read here.

There will be massive internal problems, Syria is going to be as weak as it was before, just without ties with Iran.

Turkey, the US, Israel and the oil monarchies will never tolerate a full blown Islamist state. HTS is a proxy destined to be discarded in the future.

 

[2cents]

Even in the worst days of ISIS there's never been a confrontation with Israel. On the contrary.

I think this is overblown. ISIS proper never shared a border with Israel. Similarly, there was never a major ISIS confrontation with Jordan, as they struggled to establish themselves along that border too.

There was a fairly insignificant rebel faction on the Golan frontier detached from the rest that declared allegiance to ISIS and didn’t last all too long in the context of the Syrian war. The so-called apology was probably a myth. Have a read from one of the most informed analysts of the rebel groups - https://aymennjawad.org/20017/israel-relations-with-the-syrian-rebels

In the context of the wider war, the Golan frontier was a sideshow at best.

Assad has always been a torn in Israel's side due to his alliance with Iran and the supply line to Hezbollah, Houthis and Iraqi shia militas went through Syria.

He’s certainly been regarded as an enemy in Jerusalem, but he has served Israel’s interests well enough over the years, as his father did before him. I don’t dispute the so-called Shi’a Crescent has been a major focus for Israel since 2003, but alternatively the Golan was Israel’s quietist frontier for 40 years, and since 2011 Israel have had almost complete freedom of action in Syria, with Russian acquiescence.

 

[2mufc0]

I don't think Al-Assad represented any trouble for them. It was telling that in the early confrontations with Hezbollah, the Israeli army crossed into Syrian territories and Al-Assad pulled away his troops.

It's in the Israeli benefit for Assad to stay in power, they have an excuse to attack the country due to all the Hezbollah targets there. He poses no real threat to the Israeli's one bit.

But forget the Israeli's and everyone else, this is about Syrian autonomy and getting rid of a brutal tyrant. Syrians have been dehumanised and written off as islamist and jihadists attempting to take away their right to legitimate struggle.

 

[Raoul]

Not sure I agree. Sure, the Assad regime in isolation is pretty much a paper tiger as far as the Israelis are concerned, but holistically what worries them the most is a unified, Shia crescent of influence, especially when you factor in their allies - the Iranians, Houthis, Iraqi militias etc. By toppling Assad they've essentially decimated one piece of that puzzle that would unlikely return (considering the demographics of Syria), and would instead have to content with what would likely be a highly unstable replacement government that would likely be poorly backed and isolated. Furthermore the more chaos that ensues in the region keeps the more the optics move away from their genocidal and colonial aspirations.

That’s fundamentally what US policy has been for ages - a deterioration of Iranian power in the region, which the fall of Assad certainly helps with. If Jolani winds up getting into power and doesn’t try to turn Syria into Raqqa circa 2015, Trump and the Israelis will probably remain agnostic about who is running Syria.

 

[africanspur]

Bloomberg reporting that Assad has made overtures to the USA and Erdogan. Main summary is:

-If they can help to stem the fighting, he will cut links and support with Iranian backed groups (ie Hezbollah)
-if they can help to stem the fighting and he can hold onto a rump state, he is proposing a new constitution, talks with exiled politician opposition, a political transition process and a pathway to the return of the refugees in Turkey
-He is sending a Christian patriarch to Hungary to meet Orban, to try to get him to relay to Trump the danger to Syria’s Christian population from the rebels.

Difficult to see any situation now where he stays in power. What a turnaround.

 

[Pexbo]

Bloomberg reporting that Assad has made overtures to the USA and Erdogan. Main summary is:

-If they can help to stem the fighting, he will cut links and support with Iranian backed groups (ie Hezbollah)
-if they can help to stem the fighting and he can hold onto a rump state, he is proposing a new constitution, talks with exiled politician opposition, a political transition process and a pathway to the return of the refugees in Turkey
-He is sending a Christian patriarch to Hungary to meet Orban, to try to get him to relay to Trump the danger to Syria’s Christian population from the rebels.

Difficult to see any situation now where he stays in power. What a turnaround.

If he’s offering all that surely Russia will just finish him off and start backing someone else?

 

[africanspur]

How exactly would ISIS have struck at Israel at its peak? And what would have been the strategic benefit from their perspective even if they could, of aggravating the country in the region with the most powerful air force?

 

[africanspur]

If he’s offering all that surely Russia will just finish him off and start backing someone else?

I think he’s calculating (rightly so imo) that all of his backers in the previous war are in position currently to help him. So he’s trying whatever he can.

I would run if I was him. There’s a lot of people in Syria and across the Arab world who’d love to see him hang.

 

[Pexbo]

I think he’s calculating (rightly so imo) that all of his backers in the previous war are in position currently to help him. So he’s trying whatever he can.

I would run if I was him. There’s a lot of people in Syria and across the Arab world who’d love to see him hang.

He hasn’t got anywhere to run. He won’t have a safe retirement outside of Syria. Dictators are either in power or dead.

 

[Raoul]

Bloomberg reporting that Assad has made overtures to the USA and Erdogan. Main summary is:

-If they can help to stem the fighting, he will cut links and support with Iranian backed groups (ie Hezbollah)
-if they can help to stem the fighting and he can hold onto a rump state, he is proposing a new constitution, talks with exiled politician opposition, a political transition process and a pathway to the return of the refugees in Turkey
-He is sending a Christian patriarch to Hungary to meet Orban, to try to get him to relay to Trump the danger to Syria’s Christian population from the rebels.

Difficult to see any situation now where he stays in power. What a turnaround.

There isn’t enough time for last minute negotiations. At this point he should be preparing to board a flight to Iran or Russia to save his own hide.

 

[2mufc0]

There isn’t enough time for last minute negotiations. At this point he should be preparing to board a flight to Iran or Russia to save his own hide.

Egypt or one of the gulf states could be options too, they all made up with him recently.

 

[africanspur]

He hasn’t got anywhere to run. He won’t have a safe retirement outside of Syria. Dictators are either in power or dead.

I think Iran may be an option but yeah agreed. Even in a region with lots of brutal leaders, his conduct over the past decade has been particularly so. There is no rehabilitation for this monster.

 

[berbatrick]

I think that’s true in the short-term, but not long-term (and I’m thinking in terms of decades here). Long-term I think they see the Shi’a as potential allies as an embattled minority sect battling Sunni supremacism, as they saw them pre-1979, and they are confident that the regime in Tehran is destined to fall.

What the Israelis want is a weak, divided Syria. A Sunni Islamist triumph in Damascus potentially complicates that goal. Don’t be surprised to see talk of support for an Alawite state in north-west Syria emerging from the beltway think-tanks in the coming months.

In terms of the regional power with the most at stake here, it’s clearly Turkey struggling the most to resist getting a handle on this historic moment.

Sure, it seems to benefit Turkey the most, but it makes the talk of "Israel will face a reckoning because of their conduct" from the likes of Rashid Khalidi and some liberal Zionists all the more laughable. If Hezbollah cannot be supplied, the next war Israel won't be limited to mostly bombing Beirut and liquidating a few border villages, they can do a full ground invasion too. And Israel has already successfully separated Hezbollah from Gaza.

 

[2cents]

it makes the talk of "Israel will face a reckoning because of their conduct" from the likes of Rashid Khalidi and some liberal Zionists all the more laughable

Again, perhaps in the short term. In the long run there’s an entire generation of Sunni Arabs from Rabat to Baghdad whose formative political experience has been watching the destruction of Gaza, and this includes many of the young Syrians currently overthrowing Assad. The Shi’a of southern Lebanon have not always been in the vanguard of the anti-Israel resistance in the region, and basic demographics suggests they are not destined to continue to be so. Likewise Iran.

In other words, if we are indeed currently witnessing the demise of the so-called Shia Crescent, then that demise is as much a consequence of the various demographic, geographic, and political limitations always facing that coalition as it is about any particular action that Israel may have taken lately.

 

[VorZakone]

 

[VorZakone]

 

[VorZakone]

Been reading a bit about Sednaya Prison and what they'll find there if Assad forces abandon it. Grim place.

 

[berbatrick]

Again, perhaps in the short term. In the long run there’s an entire generation of Sunni Arabs from Rabat to Muscat whose formative political experience has been watching the destruction of Gaza, and this includes many of the young Syrians currently overthrowing Assad. The Shi’a of southern Lebanon have not always been in the vanguard of the anti-Israel resistance in the region, and basic demographics suggests they are not destined to continue to be so. Likewise Iran.

From memory, since the formation of the PLO, support for (overwhelmingly Sunni!) Palestine has never come from Sunni states. The oil embargo is the most recent anti-Israel action by a Sunni state that I can think of, it was 50 years ago and was primarily in support of Egypt and Syria. And of course Morsi's Egypt helped Hamas, but it is dead and buried.

 

[2cents]

From memory, since the formation of the PLO, support for (overwhelmingly Sunni!) Palestine has never come from Sunni states. The oil embargo is the most recent anti-Israel action by a Sunni state that I can think of, it was 50 years ago and was primarily in support of Egypt and Syria. And of course Morsi's Egypt helped Hamas, but it is dead and buried.

The PLO was founded in 1964, at that time the nationalist regimes in Egypt and Syria were the major sponsors, neither of them “Shia” although their supposedly “secular” nature doesn’t lend itself so easily to these categories. But in any case, “Sunni” regimes are temporary, the overwhelming support of modern Sunni Arabs for the Palestinian cause is not.

 

[berbatrick]

 

[AfonsoAlves]

Not to defend Bashar at all, but I do hope that the Alawaite's remain in power in some capacity.

They are by far the most moderate and secular branch of Islam in that region.

 

[Kaos]

Not to defend Bashar at all, but I do hope that the Alawaite's remain in power in some capacity.

They are by far the most moderate and secular branch of Islam in that region.

If you want secularists you back the Kurds. Trouble is the West loves to leave them out to dry, usually at the behest of NATO member Turkey.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

If you want secularists you back the Kurds. Trouble is the West loves to leave them out to dry, usually at the behest of NATO member Turkey.

Kurds are far too politically isolated and economically insignificant to occupy meaningful power in Syria, though I generally agree that the Kurds are pretty secular.

Though their tribal issues do leave a bad taste.

 

[sullydnl]

 

[Raoul]

Unconfirmed

 

[the hea]

 

[AfonsoAlves]

Wow if this is how he falls... Why would he fly over Homs?

Wouldn't it be far wiser to fly into the Mediterranean and then south into Egypt or loop around into Lebanon?

 

[Raoul]

Wow if this is how he falls... Why would he fly over Homs?

Wouldn't it be far wiser to fly into the Mediterranean and then south into Egypt or loop around into Lebanon?

A few tweets suggesting he was denied landing in neighboring countries (like Lebanon).

 

[2cents]

2011-2024 is over, I hope beyond hope that Syria can maintain going forward. @United_We_Stand @syrian_scholes

 

[2cents]

Historical moment we are witnessing.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

Has it actually been confirmed?

 

[Abizzz]

Has it actually been confirmed?

The death no. But with rebels in Damascus is there any way back for the regime?