It’s a fascinating live-action test of the long-running debate over whether Islamist movements are moderated or emboldened by holding power, with all the inherent implications for policy.
I've been following the rise (and inevitable fall) of different Islamist jihadist movements as far as the late 80's - early 90's, beginning with Afghanistan, and closer to us and which I find more representative, Algeria.
The latter was embroiled in a bitter civil war for more than a decade during the 90's, under the passive, if not complicit watch of the West and with the financial support of Saudi Arabia and other oil dictatorships. Their leaders were welcomed as "political refugees" in Europe, fomenting their plans from Rome, Paris, or hate preaching in the squares of London.
I personally don't believe that HTS is what it pretends to be and it will prove it if it indeed manages to topple Assad's regime. They might tone down the violence but that's about it. In my opinion, these movements are doomed to fail because they are inherently too oppressive and intolerant, with a striking affinity for totalitarianitarism, even by the region's standards.
For me HTS is nothing but a proxy backed and financed by Turkey, the oil dictatorships, as well as the US and Israel to:
- Inflict a decisive blow to Iran's and Russia's influence in the region, after Hezbollah got recently significantly weakened, Assad's regime is crippled by the US sanctions, whilst Russia is bogged down in Ukraine. It could also be the prelude to a direct military confrontation with Iran.
- Get rid of the millions of Syrian refugees on Turkey's soil.
- Get that decade old pipeline project which would run from Qatar through Syria to Turkey, aimed to allow Qatar to export their natural resources directly to Europe. A project Assad was and still is dead against, and had its own version of which included Iran and Iraq to the detriment of Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
The timing of this offensive is too convenient, and I think that HTS will be
bombed ousted once it outlives its usefulness, one way or another. There's no way the US or Israel will tolerate a country in the region being led by (ex) jihadists, no matter how "presentable" they look.
