Middle East Politics

My memory of Fares Shehabi during the civil war is that he was among the most gratuitously vicious of the English-speaking regime propagandists online, taking delight in every massacre and atrocity.
I think you are right.

On a separate note, it feels quite nostalgic to see Charles Lister's tweets back on the caf, he's one of the few that's been on it from the start and now seemingly here for the end, to his credit he kept reporting even during the 'quieter' period when the resistance appeared to have lost.
 
Spare a thought for UAE foreign policy in all this. Normalization with Israel and Assad, sponsorship of the RSF in Sudan.
 
Egypt and Jordan have apparently asked Assad to get out of Syria and set up a government in exile.

Lister claims Assad is going to fall.
 
Egypt and Jordan have apparently asked Assad to get out of Syria and set up a government in exile.

Lister claims Assad is going to fall.
Some reports saying that he's already got out of dodge.
 


Now, what could those priorities be...

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is and will have many side-effects in the years ahead, thats for sure, Russia is no longer capable of taking care of their business elsewhere, because of it.

I wonder what happens to Georgia, if protestors gets their way, Russia going to come in a put down the "rebellion", with what army?
 
Crazy how fast things can move, Assad got bailed out, around 5-6 years ago?

One would have thought he would learn from that, and build up a more competent and robust system of government, but it appears to just be a house of cards, just like last time.
 
Just shows how fragile these dictatorships are in reality, only last year Prigozhin could have overthrown Putin by marching untouched all the way to Moscow without any resistance from within.
 
Hard to take a side in this. You have a maniacal dictator and the other violent islamists being funded by outside countries with their own political aims. It's the people who suffer in the end in this tug of war.
 
Just shows how fragile these dictatorships are in reality, only last year Prigozhin could have overthrown Putin by marching untouched all the way to Moscow without any resistance from within.
It still boggles the mind that he caved. How could he not know that he was past the point of no return? One of the big sliding doors moments of the 21st century so far.
 
Crazy how fast things can move, Assad got bailed out, around 5-6 years ago?

One would have thought he would learn from that, and build up a more competent and robust system of government, but it appears to just be a house of cards, just like last time.
You can't brutalise the population the way he did and expect to rebuild, there's way too much bad blood. So many people were killed, displaced or left the country then you have all the crippling sanctions which made it even more difficult.
 
Situation this morning seems to be that the regime have pulled all forces from the eastern provinces, handing full control of Hasakah, Deir ez-Zor, Raqqa, etc. to the SDF. SDF also said to have taken the Abu Kamal border crossing with Iraq. With the American-backed rebels in the Tanf enclave apparently making a move on Palmyra.

The overland connection with Tehran looks to be fatally severed, and once the route to the coast suffers likewise, if it hasn’t already, the regime may be toast. I don’t see anyone mounting a heroic last stand in Damascus on behalf of Bashar al-Assad.
 
And the winner for the most insane and awful analysis goes to...



Which is no surprise given her consistent terrible takes.
 
And the winner for the most insane and awful analysis goes to...



Which is no surprise given her consistent terrible takes.

Not really one to be taken seriously always been a regime/Iran stooge. The equivalent to neo con outlets on the other side.
 
Looks like Assad could be gone within days, possibly be the end of the weekend. At some point he is going to have to make a decision to flee or else risk going down like Qaddafi.



 
Situation this morning seems to be that the regime have pulled all forces from the eastern provinces, handing full control of Hasakah, Deir ez-Zor, Raqqa, etc. to the SDF. SDF also said to have taken the Abu Kamal border crossing with Iraq. With the American-backed rebels in the Tanf enclave apparently making a move on Palmyra.

The overland connection with Tehran looks to be fatally severed, and once the route to the coast suffers likewise, if it hasn’t already, the regime may be toast. I don’t see anyone mounting a heroic last stand in Damascus on behalf of Bashar al-Assad.

At this point, with the Russians removing their ships from their ports; the Iranians and the UN evacuating from Damascus, it seems like a matter of hours before Assad is finished. The question now is what comes next.
 
Incredible Israeli gains.

In the process of toppling Assad after destroying Hamas and Hezbollah, and eating up more of the West Bank.

Next up will be the Shia militias in Iraq and the Houthis.

I don’t want to hear “rough neighborhood” ever again.
 
Incredible Israeli gains.

In the process of toppling Assad after destroying Hamas and Hezbollah, and eating up more of the West Bank.

Next up will be the Shia militias in Iraq and the Houthis.

I don’t want to hear “rough neighborhood” ever again.
Is that a good thing?
 
Is that a good thing?

Why would it be a good thing?

Not sure any of it is a good thing unless you’re Israel.

The rest of the region will have to wait and see, but we’ve seen the “Islamist democratic revolution” movie many, many times before. The endings usually aren’t great.
 
Just shows how fragile these dictatorships are in reality, only last year Prigozhin could have overthrown Putin by marching untouched all the way to Moscow without any resistance from within.
That is obviously complete nonsense.
 
Incredible Israeli gains.

In the process of toppling Assad after destroying Hamas and Hezbollah, and eating up more of the West Bank.

Next up will be the Shia militias in Iraq and the Houthis.

I don’t want to hear “rough neighborhood” ever again.
As much as I find Assad detestable, always intrigued me how these rebels would never dare to touch the Golaan heights. Heck ISIS even apologised to the Israelis after mistakenly firing rockets at them intended for regime troops.
 
Crazy how quickly all of this unfolded and how vulnerable the Assad regime was.
 
As much as I find Assad detestable, always intrigued me how these rebels would never dare to touch the Golaan heights. Heck ISIS even apologised to the Israelis after mistakenly firing rockets at them intended for regime troops.

There is only one country in the region to whom replacing Assad with Al-Jolani is a net benefit.

Of course I don’t blame the oppressed Syrians for seeing this as a celebratory moment, I just hope it somehow works out for them. I’m skeptical though.
 
Why would it be a good thing?

Not sure any of it is a good thing unless you’re Israel.

The rest of the region will have to wait and see, but we’ve seen the “Islamist democratic revolution” movie many, many times before. The endings usually aren’t great.
Fully agree with you. I'm personally very wary of HTS and they do not believe in democracy.
 
It’s actually not that far off the mark given that Putin and his loyalists fled to St. Pete as Prigozhin marched towards Moscow.
we all got carried away for an hour or two but it's obviously completely ridiculous to suggest that Prigoshin would actually have been able to topple Russia's government just because he managed to drive a few trucks with soldiers towards a place 200km from Moscow.
Anyway, off topic and in no way comparable to the situation of Assad.
 
As much as I find Assad detestable, always intrigued me how these rebels would never dare to touch the Golaan heights. Heck ISIS even apologised to the Israelis after mistakenly firing rockets at them intended for regime troops.
They worked hand in hand during the civil war or let's say they made a "non-aggression pact".

There are cases of wounded Al Nusra militants treated by the Israelis.
 
Incredible Israeli gains.

In the process of toppling Assad after destroying Hamas and Hezbollah, and eating up more of the West Bank.

Next up will be the Shia militias in Iraq and the Houthis.

I don’t want to hear “rough neighborhood” ever again.
I don't think Al-Assad represented any trouble for them. It was telling that in the early confrontations with Hezbollah, the Israeli army crossed into Syrian territories and Al-Assad pulled away his troops.
 
I think among the various regional and international players with a stake in the Syrian conflict - Turkey, Qatar, Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, America - Israel has been the least significant/influential player in shaping its course. And I suspect the Israelis would prefer a weakened Assad to remain in Damascus rather than an Islamist coalition whose goals and trajectory are so uncertain.