Incredible scenes. Just when it felt like the dictators of this world were gaining the upper hand.
Middle East Politics
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
Just raw emotion. Syria has meant a lot to me over the years, as I’m sure it has for many outside observers on here and elsewhere. I’ve been fortunate enough to have visited the country and have studied its history my entire adult life.
I’ve no illusions about the task ahead or the nature of the armed men who have seized power. Al-Julani, who is a similar age to me, has been fighting the post-9/11 and Arab Spring wars his entire adult life and somehow survived to see this moment, he and his movement are the violent products of every major dysfunction that has characterized Middle Eastern politics since the First World War and beyond, as is (was?) Bashar al-Assad in his own way.
But my opinion has long been that no progress can be made to resolve these problems while the men in uniform and the oppressive party wield the power of the state. So there is a flicker of hope in Syria and by extension the region right now that I didn’t see coming.
You just need to be a dictator with the right friends.
They don't say where he is though.
Meanwhile regarding Turkey and the SDF...
I don't know what's going to happen now, whether it's going to be good, bad or genocidal, but there's no way I'm going to feel anything but joy from the downfall of Assad. Syria was never going to be able to go anywhere with him still in charge, not after all he's done.
Pretty much summarizes my thoughts. I’m not sure about the day-after and I’m clearly worried about the group that has taken over, but I’m glad to see him gone.
It’s amazing that he survived this long, just to fall in the matters of days. How did this happen this quickly?!!
Macron:
This is amazing.
The last guy asks the cameraman what’s happened? He responds that the regime has fallen. And then runs off making that gleeful sound.
Trying to foresee Syria's future by extrapolating the past doesn't paint a rosy picture and more likely than not even further chaos awaits.
Also the rehabilitation of julani has been extremely off putting to me, the man has checkered past trying to put it mildly, the kind of past that is bordering on irredeemable.
In all of this Turkey is a winner, Russia a moderate loser and iran has probably experienced the biggest blow to it's geopolitical influence since the 19th century but all of that is irrelevant in the human reality and cost of the events for the Syrian people who have suffered so much by being and continuing to be pawns of a geopolitical Great game of modern times that has engulfed the region for such a considerably period of time, we're reaching a point were no syrian has experienced stability and normalcy in their entire lives.
I hope it gets better but if I were to give my two cents I'd say it's bound to get a lot worse before that happens.
Looks like even in predominantly Alawite areas the people are happy that Assad is gone. Some footage of them seemingly welcoming opposition fighters into the area.
It came out of nowhere really.
Assad never looked more cemented among other Arab and increasingly non-Arab leaders of late. Then the entire thing just collapsed.
The only thing I'd note is Egypt. Different nation, different history, but swapping one dictator out for another (propped up by the military) is a game of chance. Interested to see what comes next.
Each of these still exists.
It's delusional to assume they don't. A lot of losses to each but neither is gone.
Of course, the thieving cnuts will take any chance to do what they've always done.
Agree about Assad needing to get in the bin, though Julani should be in jail, or better yet - six feet under. The man fought for Al Qaeda, ISIS and Al Nusra, someone as heinous as that should be nowhere near a position of power.
I sincerely hope Syrians rejects sectarianism.
Situation is not good right now in Damascus contrary to the reports of joy. The rebels are ransacking, looting and theres anarchy in the streets
Two of my contacts there are in trouble
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Two of my contacts there are in trouble
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No force on earth can stop an idea whose time has come. Victor Hugo
Hope your friend will be okay. Sadly anytime regimes get toppled it inevitably results in lawlessness that if not careful - can be used by the former regime or new dictator wannabes to restore the order with the blessing of the people. Hell - some Assad loyalists are probably encouraging it.
A degree of lawlessness is to be expected. For many reasons.
How did your contacts feel about the rebellion before this?
Shamina Begum - bad.
Mohammad al-Julani - hero.
Mohammad al-Julani - hero.
Well so far one of them has helped to topple one of the world's worst and sadistic dictators. Not surprising there is some positive vibes floating about in the immediate aftermath although im skeptical about how this will pan out.
And one of them had a $10m bounty on their now heroic head.
Israel bombing Damascus.
Israel are really leaning into their unpopularity.
Israel are gonna end up with a good chunk of Syria
Israel can now lean into their unpopularity by acquiring a good chunk of Syria
And Bin Laden went from being a hero who fought the Soviets into being the worlds most wanted terrorist. Im not sure what point you're getting at? Shades of grey?
They're both Alawai's with families in senior positions in Assad's government.
They're both aghast at the things Assad government has done but value the stability in recent years and just want the country to return to normal.
JD Vance chimes in.
Hmmm.
Vance is not being controversial there with that last reply. We need to see how things pan out.
Well, both of them were feeding intel to the West (which is how I got to know them) on things happening in Damascus hence I have no doubt that they're not pro-Assad.
You work in Intel?
Used to, work in private sector now.
A strange tweet from Vance given there’s nothing wrong in what Rogin said. I suppose JD is simply attempting to say something to assuage isolationist MAGA audiences and keep himself in Trump’s good graces.
He did well at not really saying anything though. Maybe he felt obliged to respond.
It’s going to be great. They’ll acquire more of Syria. At some point, a Syrian rebel group or a proper Syrian government will try to respond. Israel will flatten them, saying they’re fighting terrorists and it’s a tough neighbourhood.
And the USA will reaffirm their right to self defence.