Middle East Politics

With the Russians bogged down in Ukraine now's the best time for the Syrians to remove Assad. He only survived last time because of Russian and Iranian proxy support.
 
Simbo said:
The bots n trolls are certainly pushing the idea these 'rebels' are some sort of hardline religious isis-lite or something, as hard as they can. Which tells me its probably not true.
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The leading faction, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, is in part a descendant of the Islamic State of Iraq, as ISIS was known prior to its direct engagement in the Syrian war. The current HTS leader Abu Muhammad al-Julani was initially sent to Syria by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi himself, so the links to ISIS cannot be denied.

That said, as al-Julani’s group have evolved through several iterations in the context of the Syrian war, and incorporated a broader coalition of opposition groups under its wing, they have developed a more populist approach to combat and governance in Idlib, where they have held sway for a long time. Al-Julani has sought to avoid the type of alienating extremism that ultimately turned so many against ISIS, and has demonstrated a willingness to work alongside a variety of alternative opposition groups, some of whom collectively fall under the rubric “Free Syrian Army.” They have not engaged in international attacks or the most brutal type of violence associated with ISIS. In adopting this approach, they have acquired some mainstream, popular appeal and credibility (again, in the context of this war), and therefore are not to be dismissed merely as Wahhabi fanatics or whatever.*

And of course, it should always be remembered that in the context of this horrific war there are a multitude of possible factors driving recruitment for a group such as HTS, not least of which remain the nature and actions of the Assad regime itself.

*(edit): should probably also mention that they have fought heavy battles against both ISIS and later against al-Qaeda factions following their explicit break with al-Qaeda.
 
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That_Bloke said:
On a side note: it's good to see you back and your posts on other related threads have been sorely missed.
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Oh thank you, it’s nice to be back. With this news I feel like we’ve been transported back to the Cafe circa ten years ago when the CE forum would be buzzing with regular updates from Syria/Iraq. Certainly this development has brought the quickfire ISIS capture of Mosul in the summer of 2014 to mind.
 
Simbo said:
The bots n trolls are certainly pushing the idea these 'rebels' are some sort of hardline religious isis-lite or something, as hard as they can. Which tells me its probably not true.

With Assad being one of the most evil cnuts on earth, most other evil cnuts will be supporting him, not fighting him to avenge those he's killed and reclaim their country. Though I understand there's a fair few factions involved.
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Given your incredibly deep and enlightening posts in the Ukraine thread, I'll take your reply as a compliment.

This goes for your cheerleaders as well.
 
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2cents said:
Oh thank you, it’s nice to be back. With this news I feel like we’ve been transported back to the Cafe circa ten years ago when the CE forum would be buzzing with regular updates from Syria/Iraq. Certainly this development has brought the quickfire ISIS capture of Mosul in the summer of 2014 to mind.
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Absolutely.

I honestly hope to see more of your insight in the future.
 
2cents said:
The leading faction, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, is in part a descendant of the Islamic State of Iraq, as ISIS was known prior to its direct engagement in the Syrian war. The current HTS leader Abu Muhammad al-Julani was initially sent to Syria by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi himself, so the links to ISIS cannot be denied.

That said, as al-Julani’s group have evolved through several iterations in the context of the Syrian war, and incorporated a broader coalition of opposition groups under its wing, they have developed a more populist approach to combat and governance in Idlib, where they have held sway for a long time. Al-Julani has sought to avoid the type of alienating extremism that ultimately turned so many against ISIS, and has demonstrated a willingness to work alongside a variety of alternative opposition groups, some of whom collectively fall under the rubric “Free Syrian Army.” They have not engaged in international attacks or the most brutal type of violence associated with ISIS. In adopting this approach, they have acquired some mainstream, popular appeal and credibility (again, in the context of this war), and therefore are not to be dismissed merely as Wahhabi fanatics or whatever.

And of course, it should always be remembered that in the context of this horrific war there are a multitude of possible factors driving recruitment for a group such as HTS, not least of which remain the nature and actions of the Assad regime itself.
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A leopard can't change its spots.

I've first hand witnessed and experienced these assholes' M.O, about a decade before jihadism became mainstream.

Al Julani's conciliatory attitude is just a temporary fassade held after the thorough beating they took a couple of years ago. It remains in its essence a salafist movement, fundamentally uncompromising, intolerant and brutal at its very core. This will never change. Ever.

They just know that terrorist attacks on western soil is the best way to get themselves annihilated. And they still got the backing of Turkey, the UAE, SA, and a notable part of the West, including the US who all have a vested interest in undermining any Shia (backed) regime or movement in the region.

As much as Assad's regime is a despicable one, these guys are bad news by any metric. Anyone rejoicing at their successes is either uninformed, an idiot, or a psychopath.
 
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Simbo said:
The bots n trolls are certainly pushing the idea these 'rebels' are some sort of hardline religious isis-lite or something, as hard as they can. Which tells me its probably not true.

With Assad being one of the most evil cnuts on earth, most other evil cnuts will be supporting him, not fighting him to avenge those he's killed and reclaim their country. Though I understand there's a fair few factions involved.
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Certainly nothing shoddy about this line of reasoning and definitely no examples even within Syria itself of how inaccurate this is.
 
2cents said:
I feel like we’ve been transported back to the Cafe circa ten years ago when the CE forum would be buzzing with regular updates from Syria/Iraq. Certainly this development has brought the quickfire ISIS capture of Mosul in the summer of 2014 to mind.
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Has that thread been closed? Maybe these recent events should be brought into that thread.
 
2mufc0 said:
Has that thread been closed? Maybe these recent events should be brought into that thread.
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I remember that period well, though not whilst using this board. The rebels’ push westward looked unstoppable at points. Assad would surely be living in exile now, were it not for Putin’s intervention.

I’ve no idea of the strength of the SAA nowadays, but this looks to be a total collapse. It would be interesting to know what the Americans knew about this beforehand. The necessary preparation and planning must surely have been apparent.
 
NicolaSacco said:
I remember that period well, though not whilst using this board. The rebels’ push westward looked unstoppable at points. Assad would surely be living in exile now, were it not for Putin’s intervention.

I’ve no idea of the strength of the SAA nowadays, but this looks to be a total collapse. It would be interesting to know what the Americans knew about this beforehand. The necessary preparation and planning must surely have been apparent.
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Yeah it was a crazy time and he would have fallen. The whole civil war turned into a big mess in the end with all the various groups.

I'm sure US would have known about it, but from early reports it looks like a Turkish backed offensive.

With Hezbollah occupied in south Lebanon and Russia pre occupied in Ukraine it does seem like the perfect opportunity for the rebels to make their move
 
2mufc0 said:
Yeah it was a crazy time and he would have fallen. The whole civil war turned into a big mess in the end with all the various groups.

I'm sure US would have known about it, but from early reports it looks like a Turkish backed offensive.

With Hezbollah occupied in south Lebanon and Russia pre occupied in Ukraine it does seem like the perfect opportunity for the rebels to make their move
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I certainly hope so. Syria cannot hope for any kind of future under Assad. I’ll be interested to see the extent to which any Western nations support the opposition.
 
NicolaSacco said:
I certainly hope so. Syria cannot hope for any kind of future under Assad. I’ll be interested to see the extent to which any Western nations support the opposition.
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I don't think we will see any overt support form western countries esp with Trump coming in. They got cold feet last time around as the whole thing got so complicated that they didn't know who to arm and worried about directly helping 'jihadists'. But yeah Assad is awful and should pay for his crimes against the Syrian people, some of the brutality was on par with ISIS.
 
2mufc0 said:
I don't think we will see any overt support form western countries esp with Trump coming in. They got cold feet last time around as the whole thing got so complicated that they didn't know who to arm and worried about directly helping 'jihadists'. But yeah Assad is awful and should pay for his crimes against the Syrian people, some of the brutality was on par with ISIS.
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I think that’s a good call, any overt support seems unrealistic.
 
Russia do keep a contingent in Syria. Someone would have to correct me if I'm wrong. They may be leveraged/distracted with the obvious Ukraine war but they have historical ties with Syria going back decades. I don't see what others see here. In the Civil War, the Americans and Russians did contact each other through back-channels so that they wouldn't hit each other by mistake.

Assad has also been welcomed entirely back into the Arab League. He's been on diplomatic tours all over the place. He's there to stay. A dictator, as per the father, but it is what it is. I'd argue the civil war was far worse for the Syrians than the Assad regime despite this obviously being terrible for many. The consequences of that civil war are still ongoing. The nation needs to solidify and stabilize again. Going for Assad would be to announce a new civil war. It would be fecking mental considering the past 15 years and the horror we all witnessed.
 
2mufc0 said:
I don't think we will see any overt support form western countries esp with Trump coming in. They got cold feet last time around as the whole thing got so complicated that they didn't know who to arm and worried about directly helping 'jihadists'. But yeah Assad is awful and should pay for his crimes against the Syrian people, some of the brutality was on par with ISIS.
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I think exactly the contrary and the West knew exactly who they were helping.

The West, especially with Trump's administration, has every interest to support whomever helps bringing down Assad's regime, as it would weaken Iran's and Russia's influence, and more importantly reinforce Israel's upper hand in the region.

They don't give a flying one about who's going to do finish the job. If the latter gets too giddy they can always bomb the living shit out of them later.
 
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Looks like full-scale regime collapse in Aleppo. I don’t think opposition forces ever successfully captured the citadel during the early phase of the war:

Syrian rebels sweep into Aleppo after lightning assault​

“Images circulated on Friday night on opposition-linked social media showed rebel forces posing in front of Aleppo’s citadel, which lies in the heart of the city.”

https://www.ft.com/content/637a7e0a-7fcb-4536-984e-d08a51bd8fa0
 
2cents said:
Looks like full-scale regime collapse in Aleppo. I don’t think opposition forces ever successfully captured the citadel during the early phase of the war:

Syrian rebels sweep into Aleppo after lightning assault​

“Images circulated on Friday night on opposition-linked social media showed rebel forces posing in front of Aleppo’s citadel, which lies in the heart of the city.”

https://www.ft.com/content/637a7e0a-7fcb-4536-984e-d08a51bd8fa0
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They are now also moving south towards Hama, and Russian forces are retreating area.

Kurdish SDF forces have taken Aleppo airport and are moving in on Aleppo from the northeast. Is there any chance these groups will leave each other alone for now or will they start fighting for the city, with Russian airstrikes bombing everyone from above?
 
Mavs said:
Kurdish SDF forces have taken Aleppo airport and are moving in on Aleppo from the northeast. Is there any chance these groups will leave each other alone for now or will they start fighting for the city, with Russian airstrikes bombing everyone from above?
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With Turkish involvement and the opening of a front targeting Tal Rifaat, you’d have to imagine clashes between them are inevitable. There have been several signs in recent weeks that Turkey is once again looking to resolve its Kurdish issue to some degree, as well as its refugee problem. Almost 300 journalists, politicians, and other activists were arrested in the last week for allegedly pro-PKK actions, Erdoğan has spoken about an opportunity to return 2.5 million Syrians back to their ‘home’, and apparently overtures have been made to Öcalan in prison.
 
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2cents said:
With Turkish involvement and the opening of a front targeting Tal Rifaat, you’d have to imagine clashes between them are inevitable. There have been several signs in recent weeks that Turkey is once again looking to resolve its Kurdish issue to some degree, as well as its refugee problem. Almost 300 journalists, politicians, and other activists were arrested in the last week for allegedly pro-PKK actions, Erdoğan has spoken about an opportunity to return 2.5 million Syrians back to their ‘home’, and apparently overtures have been made to Öcalan in prison.
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That's probably true, although I can't see how that isn't just going to generate more refugees and diminish the HTS if they get bogged down in fighting within Aleppo. If they could agree with the SDF to stay out of each others way for now they could achieve something - but as you say that may not align with what Erdogan is looking for.
 
Mavs said:
That's probably true, although I can't see how that isn't just going to generate more refugees and diminish the HTS if they get bogged down in fighting within Aleppo. If they could agree with the SDF to stay out of each others way for now they could achieve something - but as you say that may not align with what Erdogan is looking for.
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There’s always the possibility that Erdoğan had no idea this operation would be so successful, and/or has little to no say in what al-Julani actually does.
 
Looks like the kurds have made some sort of deal with Assad?
 
So, things are going south in Ukraine, and in response the CIA activates its assets in the middle east to try to divert Russian attention there instead.
 
Ahmer Baig said:
So, things are going south in Ukraine, and in response the CIA activates its assets in the middle east to try to divert Russian attention there instead.
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Israel has decapitated Hezbollah, Russia is thinking about Ukraine and it's economy, Iran is focusing on Israel/Lebanon and Assad probably has no clue whats going on day-to-day. Don't think you need CIA conspiracies when there is about 5 obvious reasons for internal groups to try something.
 
Putin probably doesn't care much about Syria in itself, but he would like to keep his navy base there, would be a bit of a disaster for him to lose it.

How he will wrangle his way out of this one, i don't know, ship in North Koreans?
 
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