Middle East Politics

Just watched the full video. Of all the stuff I’ve seen from the Syrian war I think it’s the most disturbing.
 
There’s no confirmation of the victims’ identities yet, but some informed speculation suggesting that, given the area’s proximity to Yarmouk, at least a few must have been Palestinians:



 
Just in time to deflect attention, Lebanese pro-resistance axis media reporting that Bashar Al-Assad has survived an assassination attempt at a Damascus mosque.
 
Looks like Iran is booting off. 300% increase in staples and food prices instigated overnight. Initially started as mass raids on supermarkets, but now there are reports of the Basij bases being burnt down.

Imagine it'll be the usual case of the regime killing their own, shutting down all internet and mobile and cracking on at the mercy of the IRGC. However, always hope that one day this country will open up to the world.

 
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/17/middleeast/lebanon-election-results-hezbollah-intl/index.html

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/17/pro-hezbollah-bloc-loses-lebanese-parliamentary-majority

Hezbollah's coalition loses parliamentary majority in Lebanon's first vote after uprising, financial collapse


65 needed for the majority.

INTERACTIVE_LEBANON_ELECTION-1_INTERACTIVE_Lebanon_Election_2_16-05-2022.jpg
 
Some footage of the Iran protests from Kuwaiti media:



Lots more videos from that account
 
Turkey planning to extend its "safe zones"/invasion in Syria, at the expense of Rojava:

Erdogan says Turkey to launch military operations on its southern borders

Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan said on Monday Ankara would soon launch new military operations along its southern borders to create 30-km deep safe zones to combat terrorist threats from these regions.

"The main target of these operations will be areas which are centers of attacks to our country and safe zones," Erdogan said, without elaborating.

Erdogan said the operations would be launched as soon as military, intelligence and security forces have completed their preparations.


The operation will likely target north of Syria, where Turkey has launched several military operations since 2016 to undermine the Kurdish People’s Defense Units (YPG), an armed Syrian offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).

https://www.reuters.com/world/middl...y-operations-its-southern-borders-2022-05-23/
 
For all of the talks about a cold war between the West and Russia, it's easy to overlook the cold war being waged in the ME between Saudi Arabia & Iran.
 
2cents said:
Turkey planning to extend its "safe zones"/invasion in Syria, at the expense of Rojava:

Erdogan says Turkey to launch military operations on its southern borders

Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan said on Monday Ankara would soon launch new military operations along its southern borders to create 30-km deep safe zones to combat terrorist threats from these regions.

"The main target of these operations will be areas which are centers of attacks to our country and safe zones," Erdogan said, without elaborating.

Erdogan said the operations would be launched as soon as military, intelligence and security forces have completed their preparations.


The operation will likely target north of Syria, where Turkey has launched several military operations since 2016 to undermine the Kurdish People’s Defense Units (YPG), an armed Syrian offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).

https://www.reuters.com/world/middl...y-operations-its-southern-borders-2022-05-23/
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I have read that Turkey recently increased their pressure on PKK/YPG groups and their affiliates in Iraq partially also with support of militias. My impression was that they are pretty successful.
 
Looks like may be another step towards full Saudi-Israeli normalization

 
Sümela Monastery reopens after rock is secured

626e47d24e3fe10e38505fcc.jpg


Following 6-months of work to secure some 360 tons of rock mass to the hillside, the Sümela Monastery in the Black Sea province of Trabzon has been opened on May 1.

The monastery, which has been on UNESCO’s World Heritage Tentative List since 2000, stands carved into the steep cliffside of the mountain 300 meters above the picturesque Altındere Valley.


https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/amp/sumela-monastery-reopens-after-rock-is-secured-173425
 
The Corinthian said:
Sümela Monastery reopens after rock is secured

626e47d24e3fe10e38505fcc.jpg


Following 6-months of work to secure some 360 tons of rock mass to the hillside, the Sümela Monastery in the Black Sea province of Trabzon has been opened on May 1.

The monastery, which has been on UNESCO’s World Heritage Tentative List since 2000, stands carved into the steep cliffside of the mountain 300 meters above the picturesque Altındere Valley.


https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/amp/sumela-monastery-reopens-after-rock-is-secured-173425
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Great place. Good to see Turkish authorities actually working to preserve heritage sites for a change.

Although Assyrian and Kurdish sources are reporting on this right now:

 
Reports of a large-scale Turkish incursion or even invasion of parts of northern Syria tonight. Turkish military has been escalating actions against PKK/YPG in both Iraq and Syria in recent weeks, and looks like they’re stepping things up now.
 
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2cents said:
Reports of a large-scale Turkish incursion or even invasion of parts of northern Syria tonight. Turkish military has been escalating actions against PKK/YOG in both Iraq and Syria in recent weeks, and looks like they’re stepping things up now.
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interesting. i was reading that syria is the final point in erdogan's foreign policy. he has elections upcoming and turkey has an enormous number of syrian refugees. chatter about erdogan giving those who don't have nationality the right to vote, but not sure how concrete that is.



The retaliatory attack started when the Turkish artillery fired several shells that landed at the perimeter of the fortified SAA point.

“One hour after the artillery bombardment, the Turkish air force took part in the attack carrying out several airstrikes”, a wounded Syrian soldier said in a Kurdish TV interview.

The SAA base is located only two kilometers away from the Turkish border wall.

Earlier on the same day, the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) targeted a Turkish border post in the southern outskirts of Karkemish at the border with Syria.

As a result of the SDF attack, a Turkish soldier was killed and four others were wounded, Turkey’s defense ministry said.

For the same reason, a Turkish drone carried out a strike targeting the SDF-held Sanjak Saadoun village near Amuda in northern Hasakah countryside, leaving four people dead and three others injured, according to the SOHR.

The Syria-based Rojava Information Centre (RIC) said this is the 68th drone attack on northeast Syria in 2022.

The government forces have been stationed in Tel Jarqali since 2019 after a ceasefire agreement was reached between Russia and Turkey.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pledged to begin a military campaign into northern Syria earlier this year, allegedly to create ‘safe zones’ 30 kilometers deep along the border for the return of Syrian refugees.

On the morning of 16 August, Turkey’s Anadolu Agency reported that the Turkish National Intelligence Services forces killed a regional official of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).

On the same day, during a visit to Moscow, Syria’s defense minister highlighted the need for Turkish and US occupation troops to leave the country at once.
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The head of Turkey’s Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) announced support for Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu remarks on Ankara’s plan to mend ties with Damascus.

“Turkey’s steps toward Syria are valuable and accurate. No one living in this country, regardless of their origin or sect, is [an outsider] or the enemy of our country,” MHP member Devlet Bahceli said in a written statement released on 15 August.

He further emphasized that Syrians are brothers of the Turkish people, and have had strong relations in the context of culture, faith, and history.

In recent months, Turkey has launched numerous attacks on Syrian soil in an attempt to combat armed groups such as the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), both of which Ankara claims are terror groups that pose a threat to Turkey’s borders.

Turkish authorities have also said that they hope for normalization between Ankara and Damascus by 2023.

Last week, hundreds of Syrian oppositionists in northwestern Syria rallied outside a Turkish army post to denounce positive remarks made by Turkey’s foreign minister on reconciliation with Syrian President Bashar Assad.

These anti-government Syrians have for years been financially and militarily supported by Turkey, which has openly supported Syrian opposition forces since the start of the conflict in 2011.

Last month, Cavusoglu offered the Syrian government ‘political support’ if it helps advance the Turkish goal of expelling the PKK and YPG from northern Syria.
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full article https://thecradle.co/Article/News/14380

turkey's strategy in syria does seem to be changing. perhaps a recognition that the civil war failed to oust assad and other factors having to do with turkish and russian relations? either way, not clear cut as to how it plays out with the americans and israelis and other forces also in syria.
 
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neverdie said:
interesting. i was reading that syria is the final point in erdogan's foreign policy. he has elections upcoming and turkey has an enormous number of syrian refugees. chatter about erdogan giving those who don't have nationality the right to vote, but not sure how concrete that is.
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There’s been murmurings of a possible Erdogan-Assad reconciliation in the last week. Not sure how this operation will affect that process, if indeed this is the start of a new phase and not just a more intensive continuation of the skirmishes that have been happening along the borders for a long time now.
 
2cents said:
There’s been murmurings of a possible Erdogan-Assad reconciliation in the last week. Not sure how this operation will affect that process, if indeed this is the start of a new phase and not just a more intensive continuation of the skirmishes that have been happening along the borders for a long time now.
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can't help but read it in the light of turkey's condition on nato expansion being quid pro quo on kurdish elements in finland and sweeden. the reconciliation with assad under the conditon of removing the kurdish forces in northern syria may not be so opposed to american interests as it first looks. turkey signs off on nato expansion, which is what america wants. it also reconciles with assad, which is what russia wants. could be another example of erdogan using his heightened leverage or as you say just an isolated incident.
 
they've reconciled with israel. they're staying close to russia for many reasons even though they also sell drones to ukraine. they're getting concessions against kurdish groups via the nato agreement. they're making concessions on palestinian groups via the israeli track. they're trying to normalize relations with syria. basically playing a lot of games at once and seem to be doing it fairly well. hard to keep all those different interests happy. kurds and palestinians come out the losers. immediately at least.
 
Erdogan informed the press that Ankara has no ill intentions towards Syria, stressing Turkey’s commitment to preserving the country’s territorial integrity.

Additionally, Erdogan expressed that Turkey has no desire to overthrow Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as head of state, but instead aims to focus on fighting terrorism.

“We do not have the dilemma of overthrowing or not overthrowing Assad. We hope for the adoption of a new constitution in Syria, which will stabilize the situation,” Erdogan was quoted by CNN Turk as saying.

Moreover, he accused the US of fostering terrorism in Syria and allowing Turkish-designated terrorist groups to operate freely on its borders.

“It is the US and coalition forces that primarily feed terrorism in Syria. They did it brutally and they still do it. If there is unrest in Iraq today, unfortunately, America lies behind it,”, Turkish state media TRT quoted Erdogan as saying.

The US-led coalition in West Asia is partnered with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish majority armed force with ties to the terror-designated Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).

Earlier on 9 August, President Vladimir Putin and President Erdogan reportedly discussed the current situation in Syria.
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that's a bold statement from erdogan. it isn't untrue but you'd need to provide context. america's goal was to overthrow the assad regime as everyone knows. to this end they recruited just about anyone with an axe to grind and syria was a pariah state up until very recently. when erdogan says "feed terrorism" he isn't speaking about isis though he also sort of is. it's a clever way of telling the full truth behind the diplomatically more acceptable truth which is turkey's general hatred of the kurds and their status as terrorists in turkey's eyes. but in truth the united states has been robbing syria of its oil on a continuous basis over recent months. the french foreign legion, along with american support, have apparently caught onto the trick and have arrived in yemen to start stealing yemeni resources.

anyway, the takeway here is that erdogan is increasingly asserting himself on the international stage in a way that few, if any, nato members tend to do or have done. the reason he can do this is because of turkey's general geographic and strategical position. setting up factories to build drones in ukraine while also working with the kremlin. normalizing relations with israel to the detriment of hamas while also seeking to normalize relations with syria to the detriment of the western alliance, or occupying forces if we're being honest. noteworthy, too, is that turkey itself is an occupying party in syria.

i tend to think that letting the syrian situation go is the best move for all involved. it's been over ten years with enormous amounts of destruction and assad is not going anywhere. the middle east itself seems to me to be getting its regional priorities in order. there are outliers and winners and losers as you'd expect. yemen, lebanon, and the palestinians are habitual losers in this game. the kurds also are double crossed so many times that it's now pointless keeping track. egypt, too, might be in for some problems in the coming years. i read an article recently which seems to suggest that the americans are losing patience with sisi, purely from an economic point of view.
 
Lebanese Newspaper Al-Akhbar published a special interview on 25 August with a founding member of Hezbollah’s military, who conveyed an explicit threat of destruction to the Israeli army.

The commander, whose name was redacted for security measures, announced that Hezbollah is eager to have Israel commit any mistake in Lebanon to deal a blow to the pride of the Israeli army.

He added that the current maritime dispute is either a significant opportunity for the resistance to leverage its power projection to secure Lebanon’s rights, or a pretext for the third Lebanon war, which would be the cornerstone to liberating Palestine.

Over the past few weeks, the rhetoric for war dominated the statements and speeches of Israeli and resistance officials, creating the most tense atmosphere between the two adversaries since the July 2006 war.

In mid September, the deadline set by Hezbollah to conclude the maritime negotiations between the Lebanese and Israeli government expires, which may prompt the group to act upon its threats against Israel.

The Secretary-General of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah was vocal on several occasions about the fact that the resistance is ready to halt all gas extraction in Israel if it does not concede to Lebanon Qana gas field and line 23.

Similarly, the Israeli decision makers openly threatened Lebanon with destruction and a pre-emptive attack against Hezbollah if it does not step away from disrupting the existing calm on the border.

In the context of Israel’s dilemma between either conceding to Lebanon or risking a war, the Hezbollah commander revealed that Nasrallah had ordered a mass casualty attack against the Israeli army in 2019.
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this one has been in the offing for months. it's all coming down to a disputed claim on qana gas field. lebanon claims it and israel is attempting to ignore their claim and take it by force. deadline for some kind of negotiation is set for next month. if that fails, expect hostilities with a reasonable amount of confidence.

In the aftermath of the attacks, large wildfires have reportedly broken out in the perimeter of the initial targets. Civil defense firefighters were deployed to the scene to combat the fires.

Meanwhile, in eastern Syria, a fierce exchange of fire was recorded between Iran-affiliated armed groups and US-led coalition forces.

On Thursday, two US military bases came under missile attacks in the Green Village area and Conoco gas field in the eastern countryside of Deir Ezzor.

On 15 August, Israel launched several missile strikes targeting rural Damascus and the outskirts of Tartous city near Russia’s main military base on the Mediterranean coast.

Since the beginning of the year, Israel has attacked 21 targets inside Syria, according to the SOHR.
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also, american military bases, centres for stealing syrian gas at this point, have come under attack. israel have just attacked the western part of syria which they have been doing fairly regularly. what's different now, though, is that they're coming close to the pimary russian encampment which is its tartous naval base. russia has warned israel its attacks won't be tolerated with impunity some time back. relations between the two are bad due to spats over ukraine and syria. worst it's been in decades i'd guess.
 
OK, seems Muqtada’s announcement was preceded by the effective defection of Ayatollah Kazim al-Ha’iri who had previously served as his followers’ marja. Al-Ha’iri has basically resigned and directed his followers to now follow Khamenei, which seems highly unusual. No wonder Muqtada is pissed. Thread explains it better:

 
the muqtada thing has been developing for weeks and weeks. not a surprise really. i thought it had already been announced.
 
Baghdad is a war zone, anyone able to explain what's going on here?
 
I tried reading a summary and still don't understand. I haven't paid close attention to Muqtada al-Sadr in a long time, but he seems to do this all the time?
 
Sir Matt said:
I tried reading a summary and still don't understand. I haven't paid close attention to Muqtada al-Sadr in a long time, but he seems to do this all the time?
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It is not easy to explain. But to simplify it, this is a power war between the pro Iraqi shia politicians and Irani sympathisers. Muqtada with all his deficiencies, is still not willing to be a total proxy to Iran in contrast to the others, and that is what sparked the problem. Al-Haari quitting and ordering his followers to take religious advice from Khamenei from now on is like transporting the shia authority from Najaf Iraq to Qum Iran and that made Muqtada flip. The sadrists won the elections "Muqtada's followers" but still Iran did not let him assemble a government.
 
Simbo said:
Baghdad is a war zone, anyone able to explain what's going on here?
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Not been following things in Iraq lately, but broadly speaking seems to be pro-Iranian militias squaring off against Muqtada's nationalist forces. I'm sure there's a lot more nuance to it that someone else* here can explain.

*(edit): thanks @Giggsyking
 
Giggsyking said:
It is not easy to explain. But to simplify it, this is a power war between the pro Iraqi shia politicians and Irani sympathisers. Muqtada with all his deficiencies, is still not willing to be a total proxy to Iran in contrast to the others, and that is what sparked the problem. Al-Haari quitting and ordering his followers to take religious advice from Khamenei from now on is like transporting the shia authority from Najaf Iraq to Qum Iran and that made Muqtada flip. The sadrists won the elections "Muqtada's followers" but still Iran did not let him assemble a government.
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So if Muqtada's side wins, then Iran loses influence in Iraq, am I interpreting that correctly?
 
VorZakone said:
So if Muqtada's side wins, then Iran loses influence in Iraq, am I interpreting that correctly?
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Yes to a degree, not totally, but I would say they will lose a big chunk of influence in Iraq, as the people against Muqtada are very pro Iran. He also would want to dismantle the popular mobilisation unit (very close to al Quds iranian brigade). So they would lose both political and military power in Iraq.
 
Giggsyking said:
It is not easy to explain. But to simplify it, this is a power war between the pro Iraqi shia politicians and Irani sympathisers. Muqtada with all his deficiencies, is still not willing to be a total proxy to Iran in contrast to the others, and that is what sparked the problem. Al-Haari quitting and ordering his followers to take religious advice from Khamenei from now on is like transporting the shia authority from Najaf Iraq to Qum Iran and that made Muqtada flip. The sadrists won the elections "Muqtada's followers" but still Iran did not let him assemble a government.
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Thanks! Yeah, last I paid attention, which was admittedly years ago, Sadr was thought of as an Iran proxy.
 
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