Middle East Politics

2cents said:
Thanks. Is the Palace of Justice in a Christian area? Can only think some higher party must have given the LF the nod to go ahead with this.
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Mixed area I would say.
Nothing happens in Lebanon without a foreign "Green Light". So obviously someone is trying to shake things up...

Slevs said:
Same here.
I donno who initiated the conflict (could well be Lebanese Forces) but what happened in the next 4 hours is fecking insane. The army just spectating with 2 teams going at it. I didn't know Hezbollah had THAT much ammunition.
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Brooo, the army was watching for a good 2 hours before doing anything. Even initially when LF where basically shooting at the protesters.
What surprised me is the LF! Those weren't novice snipers. Did you see the video of them taking out the Amal fighter carrying the RPG? Moving target, suppressing fire and they still clocked him.
You expect that level of expertise from Hezbollah but I thought the LF were just talking big.
Anyway, hopefully this will be resolved soon. I don't see a full on war developing but the next few days will interesting.
 
Ballache said:
Mixed area I would say.
Nothing happens in Lebanon without a foreign "Green Light". So obviously someone is trying to shake things up...



Brooo, the army was watching for a good 2 hours before doing anything. Even initially when LF where basically shooting at the protesters.
What surprised me is the LF! Those weren't novice snipers. Did you see the video of them taking out the Amal fighter carrying the RPG? Moving target, suppressing fire and they still clocked him.
You expect that level of expertise from Hezbollah but I thought the LF were just talking big.
Anyway, hopefully this will be resolved soon. I don't see a full on war developing but the next few days will interesting.
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Don't forget most of LF have the civil war experience from 75 to 90
That was fecking stupid though. This isn't Call of Duty where you can run to the open street, fire an RPG and come back, even with suppressing fire.
 
Slevs said:
Don't forget most of LF have the civil war experience from 75 to 90
That was fecking stupid though. This isn't Call of Duty where you can run to the open street, fire an RPG and come back, even with suppressing fire.
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There's something weird about all of this. Can't put my finger on it, but it somehow feels staged.
 
It does feel staged. Both sides were prepared. You dont spontaneously place snipers on rooftops and you dont suddenly find RPGs lying around in the middle of a peaceful protest.

I think both sides benefit from the chaos. Obviously the Hizballah / Amal side want to make the statement that this investigation, they way its being handled, will lead to blood on the streets, and will threaten the peace.

The LF need their supporters to feel threatened and show the new majority of neutrals that Hizballah is still the main force dragging Lebanon down.

In truth, both sides are murderous, and there is no way of re-building with these ogres in charge.
 
What’s the mood today guys?
 
Nothing from what I heard.

Although, last night I heard some news that LF and Kataeb offices in Jdeideh got attacked by Hezb? You heard anything about that @Ballache @kafta
 
Slevs said:
Nothing from what I heard.

Although, last night I heard some news that LF and Kataeb offices in Jdeideh got attacked by Hezb? You heard anything about that @Ballache @kafta
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Heard nothing about that. Though i was in Beirut all day (distracted with work). It was mostly quiet today.
 
2cents said:
What’s the mood today guys?
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Slevs said:
Nothing from what I heard.

Although, last night I heard some news that LF and Kataeb offices in Jdeideh got attacked by Hezb? You heard anything about that @Ballache @kafta
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Haven't heard anything. I'm following the news on TV and Social media. I also have a friend that lives in Ein El Remmeneh (where everything happened) and he said it's been quiet.
 
Not sure if the right thread but:
WASHINGTON, Nov 13 (Reuters) - The U.S. military covered up 2019 airstrikes in Syria that killed up to 64 women and children, a possible war crime, during the battle against Islamic State, the New York Times reported on Saturday.

The two back-to-back airstrikes near the town of Baghuz were ordered by a classified American special operations unit tasked with ground operations in Syria, according to the report.


The newspaper said that U.S. Central Command, which oversaw U.S. air operations in Syria, acknowledged the strikes for the first time this week and said they were justified.

In a statement on Saturday, Central Command reiterated the account it gave the newspaper that 80 people were killed in the strikes including 16 Islamic State fighters and four civilians. The military said it was unclear if the other 60 people were civilians, partly because women and children could have been combatants.


In Saturday's statement, the military said the strikes were "legitimate self-defense," proportional and that "appropriate steps were taken to rule out the presence of civilians."
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https://www.reuters.com/world/middl...s-syria-nyt-2021-11-13/?utm_source=reddit.com
 
UAE is moving to a 4.5 day work week from next year and shifting their weekends. Weekends will now run from Friday pm to Sunday (it was previously Friday and Saturday).

Interesting move to try and attract business and investment. It's only public sector for now, but I think they're private sector will follow.

Will also be interesting to see if the likes of Saudi, Qatar etc follow suit.
 
By the way, what are the lasting results of the Arab Spring? Has it changed the involved nations and if so, to what degree? It's one of those subjects you barely hear about anymore.
 
VorZakone said:
By the way, what are the lasting results of the Arab Spring? Has it changed the involved nations and if so, to what degree? It's one of those subjects you barely hear about anymore.
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I'd say Tunisia is the only country which has really come out of it with anything resembling an even semi functioning democracy. Obviously by no means perfect but for me anyway, the main hope.

-Syria and Yemen need little discussion.
-Egypt has gone backwards, into an even more flagrant military dictatorship, where Sisi has done away with the the facades of democracy and private enterprise that Mubarak had at least been putting forwards, as well as any pretence that the revolution was a good thing. Egypt is essentially a crony state for the army now, who essentially own the economy. He's changed the constitution he himself put himself to ensure he can run for as many terms as possible and the last 'election' was a comedy of errors, whereby every single candidate who put themselves forward (even other generals) found themselves disqualified/ under investigation/ both, until I think they realised how much of a farce it would appear to the outside world. So they put forward a pro-Government politican, who had been campaigning for Sisi, to run against him. He announced his intention to run the day before the deadline and submitted his application 15 minutes before it closed. Even with severe vote rigging, even the official turnout was 41% and invalid votes won more votes than this other 'candidate'.
-Sudan is also looking very tenuous but the military seem to be in the driving seat again.
-I have to be honest and say I'm not totally sure of whats happening in Libya anymore but seems their 'elections' have been postponed very recently and one of Ghaddafi's sons seems to be running for office?
-Lebanon is a financial mess.

Anywhere else?

I'm of course being slightly flippant. All the countries have changed massively, in various ways (and each different to each other) but sadly, rarely for the better. The thing for me though is that the core issues which led to the revolutions in the first place are still in play, still not really being addressed in any meaningful way it seems.
 
africanspur said:
I'd say Tunisia is the only country which has really come out of it with anything resembling an even semi functioning democracy. Obviously by no means perfect but for me anyway, the main hope.

-Syria and Yemen need little discussion.
-Egypt has gone backwards, into an even more flagrant military dictatorship, where Sisi has done away with the the facades of democracy and private enterprise that Mubarak had at least been putting forwards, as well as any pretence that the revolution was a good thing. Egypt is essentially a crony state for the army now, who essentially own the economy. He's changed the constitution he himself put himself to ensure he can run for as many terms as possible and the last 'election' was a comedy of errors, whereby every single candidate who put themselves forward (even other generals) found themselves disqualified/ under investigation/ both, until I think they realised how much of a farce it would appear to the outside world. So they put forward a pro-Government politican, who had been campaigning for Sisi, to run against him. He announced his intention to run the day before the deadline and submitted his application 15 minutes before it closed. Even with severe vote rigging, even the official turnout was 41% and invalid votes won more votes than this other 'candidate'.
-Sudan is also looking very tenuous but the military seem to be in the driving seat again.
-I have to be honest and say I'm not totally sure of whats happening in Libya anymore but seems their 'elections' have been postponed very recently and one of Ghaddafi's sons seems to be running for office?
-Lebanon is a financial mess.

Anywhere else?

I'm of course being slightly flippant. All the countries have changed massively, in various ways (and each different to each other) but sadly, rarely for the better. The thing for me though is that the core issues which led to the revolutions in the first place are still in play, still not really being addressed in any meaningful way it seems.
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Libya is an interesting one, last thing I know is there was a civil war and some warlord was on the winning side but honestly that's pretty much all I know at the moment. I genuinely can't remember a frontpage article about Libya in the last couple of years.
 
VorZakone said:
Libya is an interesting one, last thing I know is there was a civil war and some warlord was on the winning side but honestly that's pretty much all I know at the moment. I genuinely can't remember a frontpage article about Libya in the last couple of years.
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Because it has been a basket case from the time Gaddafi was killed. It's obvious that it won't be on the front page because the Europeans were the one who caused the problems. Syria was because they hoped they could get rid of Assad who seems to have survived against all odds and the Arabs are trying to make up to him.
The Libyan warlord was a nutcase from the time of Gaddafi who kicked him out and went and lived in the USA for a very long time.
 
VorZakone said:
Libya is an interesting one, last thing I know is there was a civil war and some warlord was on the winning side but honestly that's pretty much all I know at the moment. I genuinely can't remember a frontpage article about Libya in the last couple of years.
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There has been a stalemate since 2020 after Haftar’s forces failed to take Tripoli and were then pushed back by the Turkey-backed GNA, while the GNA’s counter-offensive also stalled after Egypt and Russia intervened on behalf of Haftar. A ceasefire between these two main opposing factions was brokered in October 2020 and appears to have held despite some skirmishes.

There were Presidential Elections scheduled for last month which have been postponed. Among the dozens of candidates are Haftar himself and Qadhafi’s son Saif al-Islam, who you might remember from 2011. There seems to be much apprehension regarding what follows the election, which might explain in part why it has been postponed.
 
2cents said:
There has been a stalemate since 2020 after Haftar’s forces failed to take Tripoli and were then pushed back by the Turkey-backed GNA, while the GNA’s counter-offensive also stalled after Egypt and Russia intervened on behalf of Haftar. A ceasefire between these two main opposing factions was brokered in October 2020 and appears to have held despite some skirmishes.

There were Presidential Elections scheduled for last month which have been postponed. Among the dozens of candidates are Haftar himself and Qadhafi’s son Saif al-Islam, who you might remember from 2011. There seems to be much apprehension regarding what follows the election, which might explain in part why it has been postponed.
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So about foreign powers, who is backing who? From your post I derive that the GNA is backed by Turkey and the LNA by Russia/Egypt?
 
Have the western powers lost all interest / given up hope in Libya then? If only we'd lose all interest in fecking up these countries rather than losing interest in rebuilding them.
 
VorZakone said:
So about foreign powers, who is backing who? From your post I derive that the GNA is backed by Turkey and the LNA by Russia/Egypt?
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Yes those are the most direct foreign backers in the sense that, during 2019-2020 at least, they supplied manpower, training, and military resources to the opposing factions. However this type of foreign support was supposed to end under the terms of the ceasefire. Not sure if that has actually happened.

Then beyond that, you have what has become the fairly standard supporting cast which has emerged along an Islamist-‘Secular’/Military divide since 2011, with Qatar backing the GNA and Saudi Arabia/UAE backing Haftar.

While the GNA* remains the “internationally-recognized government”, “the West” was divided during the war, with France apparently backing Haftar and the rest of the EU and America ostensibly supporting the GNA. However given Haftar’s links to the CIA you have to question the real extent of this support.

*(edit): now the GNU since the provisional unity government was formed in March
 
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VorZakone said:
By the way, what are the lasting results of the Arab Spring? Has it changed the involved nations and if so, to what degree? It's one of those subjects you barely hear about anymore.
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Beyond the specifics of each case, one major change since 2011 is that popular protests have become an established, regular feature of the Arab political landscape wherever regime suppression isn’t forceful enough to prevent them (as in Egypt right now).
 
africanspur said:
I'd say Tunisia is the only country which has really come out of it with anything resembling an even semi functioning democracy. Obviously by no means perfect but for me anyway, the main hope.
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More bad news in that case:

 
First such visit since 2008 when Turkish-Israeli relations went south

 
Quite a turnaround for Erdogan





 
So much going on behind the scenes in the region right now, shifting alignments with no clear picture yet of the dynamic that will emerge. Pretty much the only consistent element we can continue to take for granted is Israeli-Iranian hostility. Everything else seems in a flux, potentially at least.
 
Lengthy thread here on the current machinations, but this is the heart of it:



 
The more I read these regional politics threads, the more I think that building a nuclear bunker is the only safe option for me.
 
2cents said:
@MTF @Mciahel Goodman you might find this article interesting (based on your discussion in the Russian invasion thread). Lynch was the first analyst to use the term “Arab Spring” in early 2011 and he has a sharp eye for the shifting politics of the region:

The End of the Middle East
How an Old Map Distorts a New Reality

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/africa/2022-02-22/end-middle-east
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Thanks, excellent article. Points to more fluidity and bipolarity/multipolarity in the near to long-term (signs of it already as you'll know with M.E. states making moves that you wouldn't have seen years ago: Asad back on the stage, being one).
 
Painfully unfunny but still…



Don’t recall Saudi-American relations being so bad:

 
2cents said:
Painfully unfunny but still…



Don’t recall Saudi-American relations being so bad:

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There are some murmurs that saudis might start selling oil is some other currency apart from the dollar.

The russians and chinese have been courting the saudis as of late.
 
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