Louis van Gaal's tactics

[#07]

The thing that has been most baffling to me about the switch to the 4-2-3-1 so far this season has been the poor possession play. Last season even if we were utterly shit we still had around 60% of the ball. In pre season and against Spurs it's been almost 50/50 and I think the main reason is the massive space between the 6 and the 8 and Memphis as a 10. It's lead to too many misplaced passes through the midfield and players getting caught on the ball. Van Gaal obviously loves possession, which just makes it weird as the 4-3-3 towards the end of last season is a much better bet for dominating the ball.

The gap between our lines is the real issue with United playing 4-2-3-1, or 4-3-3 with the point forward as Van Gaal prefers to call it.

I do not believe Memphis' positioning helps the situation. However, I'm sure Van Gaal would argue that if the team carried out his instructions properly there wouldn't be an issue.

What Van Gaal appears to be trying to do is recreate his Ajax side of 20 years ago. If you think about the typical Ajax line up from around c. 1995 it would look something like this:

R. De Boer(or Kluivert)

Overmars Litmanen Finidi

Davids Seedorf

F. De Boer Blind Rijkaard Reizinger

Van Der Sar​

Three things, above and beyond the raw brilliance of the players, were required to make this team as great as it was: 1. The positioning of the number 10, 2. the positioning of Rijkaard, 3. the distance between Ajax's lines. Any one of these elements being missing and the whole thing would have fallen apart.

With Litmanen at number 10 Ajax had the perfect player to reinforce the attack. Litmanen's use of space was very clever. He seemed to get where he needed to be and when.

With Rijkaard at centre back Ajax had the perfect centre back to play out through. Further, when Ajax had possession Rijkaard would step out of the back line and become the anchor of the midfield. This effectively formed a midfield diamond given how Litmanen played, similar to how Barcelona used Messi as a false #9 under Pep to always have numerical advantage in centre midfield, forming two triangles at all times to circulate the ball around pressure.

With very little distance between the lines Ajax could compress the space on the pitch. They would bring their centre backs up to halfway and try to play the whole game in the opposition half, again similar to Pep's Guardiola. By playing a high back line, Van Gaal fit his whole team into a very small space. This meant that huge gaps did not open up between the players in defence, midfield and attack.

Clearly, as I'm sure @NL Max is going to tell us when he gets around to doing his promised full tactical analysis of Van Gaal's football, this is what Van Gaal wants to put in place at Manchester United.

The problem is I am unsure whether we have the players to make Van Gaal's playing style a reality.

First, Memphis is not Litmanen. As a footballer Memphis may actually be more naturally gifted than Litmanen, in terms of tricks and flicks. What Memphis lacks though is the same understanding of time and space that Litmanen had.

Second, Blind is not Rijkaard. Blind is a clever footballer and tactically he's mature enough to grasp what Van Gaal will want from him as the ball playing centre back. Still, Rijkaard was one of the best players in the world even after his Milan days. Blind is just not at that level. In terms of the raw materials Rijkaard was just more to work with.

Third, and most importantly, we do not make the pitch as small as Ajax did. Despite Memphis running off after the ball at times, the gap between our double pivot and our 10 would be smaller if we played the whole game in the opposition half. However, our players are hesitant to do this. It has always been Carrick's game to drop off, and as he ages he's probably becoming more aware of his physical limitations. His instinct will tell him to drop back because he cannot energetically press high for 90 minutes. This affects the defence, which is also not that quick (barring Smalling) and quite inexperienced. They respond to our double pivot dropping backwards by dropping backwards as well. If Memphis doesn't adjust his position to compensate for this backwards movement a gap opens up in the middle of midfield and that destroys the diamond/two triangles. No passing moves can get going. The team is disjointed and cant play out, except down the wings which relies on individual quality rather than Van Gaal's preferred philosophy of interplay and positioning.

Where we are today is similar to where Van Gaal found Barcelona when he took over from Bobby Robson. We can't play the way he wants us to. At the Camp Nou, Van Gaal solved this by changing his 4-3-3 to the backwards pointing version that has become Barcelona's trademark. He did the same thing last season at United, shifting us to a backwards pointing 4-3-3. Carrick got to do the Guardiola role, his dropping deep was compensated by the centre backs splitting wide and the two box-to-box midfielders either side of him adjusting their positions so the team did not end up getting segmented.

I hope I am proven wrong and that Van Gaal can make Man Utd play like Ajax. I worry that in abandoning the backwards pointing 4-3-3 that saw us dominate City and Liverpool last season, Van Gaal risks giving up vital ground to our rivals. This is why I think we need to go back to last season's version of 4-3-3 and bring Herrera back into the heart of midfield where his movement can compensate for Carrick's lower mobility and energy level.

If Schweinsteiger gets back to his best and forms an axis with Schneiderlin, and if Memphis learns the #10 role well, its possible the forward pointing 4-3-3 will eventually come good. My question is: why risk it? We have something that works and we know the Premier League is a marathon sprint. We can't risk wasting weeks and weeks trying to get the forward pointing 4-3-3 right if we're going be genuine contenders.

 

[lem8sh]

The gap between our lines is the real issue with United playing 4-2-3-1, or 4-3-3 with the point forward as Van Gaal prefers to call it.

I do not believe Memphis' positioning helps the situation. However, I'm sure Van Gaal would argue that if the team carried out his instructions properly there wouldn't be an issue.

What Van Gaal appears to be trying to do is recreate his Ajax side of 20 years ago. If you think about the typical Ajax line up from around c. 1995 it would look something like this:

R. De Boer(or Kluivert)

Overmars Litmanen Finidi

Davids Seedorf

F. De Boer Blind Rijkaard Reizinger

Van Der Sar​

Three things, above and beyond the raw brilliance of the players, were required to make this team as great as it was: 1. The positioning of the number 10, 2. the positioning of Rijkaard, 3. the distance between Ajax's lines. Any one of these elements being missing and the whole thing would have fallen apart.

With Litmanen at number 10 Ajax had the perfect player to reinforce the attack. Litmanen's use of space was very clever. He seemed to get where he needed to be and when.

With Rijkaard at centre back Ajax had the perfect centre back to play out through. Further, when Ajax had possession Rijkaard would step out of the back line and become the anchor of the midfield. This effectively formed a midfield diamond given how Litmanen played, similar to how Barcelona used Messi as a false #9 under Pep to always have numerical advantage in centre midfield, forming two triangles at all times to circulate the ball around pressure.

With very little distance between the lines Ajax could compress the space on the pitch. They would bring their centre backs up to halfway and try to play the whole game in the opposition half, again similar to Pep's Guardiola. By playing a high back line, Van Gaal fit his whole team into a very small space. This meant that huge gaps did not open up between the players in defence, midfield and attack.

Clearly, as I'm sure @NL Max is going to tell us when he gets around to doing his promised full tactical analysis of Van Gaal's football, this is what Van Gaal wants to put in place at Manchester United.

The problem is I am unsure whether we have the players to make Van Gaal's playing style a reality.

First, Memphis is not Litmanen. As a footballer Memphis may actually be more naturally gifted than Litmanen, in terms of tricks and flicks. What Memphis lacks though is the same understanding of time and space that Litmanen had.

Second, Blind is not Rijkaard. Blind is a clever footballer and tactically he's mature enough to grasp what Van Gaal will want from him as the ball playing centre back. Still, Rijkaard was one of the best players in the world even after his Milan days. Blind is just not at that level. In terms of the raw materials Rijkaard was just more to work with.

Third, and most importantly, we do not make the pitch as small as Ajax did. Despite Memphis running off after the ball at times, the gap between our double pivot and our 10 would be smaller if we played the whole game in the opposition half. However, our players are hesitant to do this. It has always been Carrick's game to drop off, and as he ages he's probably becoming more aware of his physical limitations. His instinct will tell him to drop back because he cannot energetically press high for 90 minutes. This affects the defence, which is also not that quick (barring Smalling) and quite inexperienced. They respond to our double pivot dropping backwards by dropping backwards as well. If Memphis doesn't adjust his position to compensate for this backwards movement a gap opens up in the middle of midfield and that destroys the diamond/two triangles. No passing moves can get going. The team is disjointed and cant play out, except down the wings which relies on individual quality rather than Van Gaal's preferred philosophy of interplay and positioning.

Where we are today is similar to where Van Gaal found Barcelona when he took over from Bobby Robson. We can't play the way he wants us to. At the Camp Nou, Van Gaal solved this by changing his 4-3-3 to the backwards pointing version that has become Barcelona's trademark. He did the same thing last season at United, shifting us to a backwards pointing 4-3-3. Carrick got to do the Guardiola role, his dropping deep was compensated by the centre backs splitting wide and the two box-to-box midfielders either side of him adjusting their positions so the team did not end up getting segmented.

I hope I am proven wrong and that Van Gaal can make Man Utd play like Ajax. I worry that in abandoning the backwards pointing 4-3-3 that saw us dominate City and Liverpool last season, Van Gaal risks giving up vital ground to our rivals. This is why I think we need to go back to last season's version of 4-3-3 and bring Herrera back into the heart of midfield where his movement can compensate for Carrick's lower mobility and energy level.

If Schweinsteiger gets back to his best and forms an axis with Schneiderlin, and if Memphis learns the #10 role well, its possible the forward pointing 4-3-3 will eventually come good. My question is: why risk it? We have something that works and we know the Premier League is a marathon sprint. We can't risk wasting weeks and weeks trying to get the forward pointing 4-3-3 right if we're going be genuine contenders.

Great post sir.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Should someone tell Louis?

 

[LexiRed]

The gap between our lines is the real issue with United playing 4-2-3-1, or 4-3-3 with the point forward as Van Gaal prefers to call it.

I do not believe Memphis' positioning helps the situation. However, I'm sure Van Gaal would argue that if the team carried out his instructions properly there wouldn't be an issue.

What Van Gaal appears to be trying to do is recreate his Ajax side of 20 years ago. If you think about the typical Ajax line up from around c. 1995 it would look something like this:

R. De Boer(or Kluivert)

Overmars Litmanen Finidi

Davids Seedorf

F. De Boer Blind Rijkaard Reizinger

Van Der Sar​

Three things, above and beyond the raw brilliance of the players, were required to make this team as great as it was: 1. The positioning of the number 10, 2. the positioning of Rijkaard, 3. the distance between Ajax's lines. Any one of these elements being missing and the whole thing would have fallen apart.

With Litmanen at number 10 Ajax had the perfect player to reinforce the attack. Litmanen's use of space was very clever. He seemed to get where he needed to be and when.

With Rijkaard at centre back Ajax had the perfect centre back to play out through. Further, when Ajax had possession Rijkaard would step out of the back line and become the anchor of the midfield. This effectively formed a midfield diamond given how Litmanen played, similar to how Barcelona used Messi as a false #9 under Pep to always have numerical advantage in centre midfield, forming two triangles at all times to circulate the ball around pressure.

With very little distance between the lines Ajax could compress the space on the pitch. They would bring their centre backs up to halfway and try to play the whole game in the opposition half, again similar to Pep's Guardiola. By playing a high back line, Van Gaal fit his whole team into a very small space. This meant that huge gaps did not open up between the players in defence, midfield and attack.

Clearly, as I'm sure @NL Max is going to tell us when he gets around to doing his promised full tactical analysis of Van Gaal's football, this is what Van Gaal wants to put in place at Manchester United.

The problem is I am unsure whether we have the players to make Van Gaal's playing style a reality.

First, Memphis is not Litmanen. As a footballer Memphis may actually be more naturally gifted than Litmanen, in terms of tricks and flicks. What Memphis lacks though is the same understanding of time and space that Litmanen had.

Second, Blind is not Rijkaard. Blind is a clever footballer and tactically he's mature enough to grasp what Van Gaal will want from him as the ball playing centre back. Still, Rijkaard was one of the best players in the world even after his Milan days. Blind is just not at that level. In terms of the raw materials Rijkaard was just more to work with.

Third, and most importantly, we do not make the pitch as small as Ajax did. Despite Memphis running off after the ball at times, the gap between our double pivot and our 10 would be smaller if we played the whole game in the opposition half. However, our players are hesitant to do this. It has always been Carrick's game to drop off, and as he ages he's probably becoming more aware of his physical limitations. His instinct will tell him to drop back because he cannot energetically press high for 90 minutes. This affects the defence, which is also not that quick (barring Smalling) and quite inexperienced. They respond to our double pivot dropping backwards by dropping backwards as well. If Memphis doesn't adjust his position to compensate for this backwards movement a gap opens up in the middle of midfield and that destroys the diamond/two triangles. No passing moves can get going. The team is disjointed and cant play out, except down the wings which relies on individual quality rather than Van Gaal's preferred philosophy of interplay and positioning.

Where we are today is similar to where Van Gaal found Barcelona when he took over from Bobby Robson. We can't play the way he wants us to. At the Camp Nou, Van Gaal solved this by changing his 4-3-3 to the backwards pointing version that has become Barcelona's trademark. He did the same thing last season at United, shifting us to a backwards pointing 4-3-3. Carrick got to do the Guardiola role, his dropping deep was compensated by the centre backs splitting wide and the two box-to-box midfielders either side of him adjusting their positions so the team did not end up getting segmented.

I hope I am proven wrong and that Van Gaal can make Man Utd play like Ajax. I worry that in abandoning the backwards pointing 4-3-3 that saw us dominate City and Liverpool last season, Van Gaal risks giving up vital ground to our rivals. This is why I think we need to go back to last season's version of 4-3-3 and bring Herrera back into the heart of midfield where his movement can compensate for Carrick's lower mobility and energy level.

If Schweinsteiger gets back to his best and forms an axis with Schneiderlin, and if Memphis learns the #10 role well, its possible the forward pointing 4-3-3 will eventually come good. My question is: why risk it? We have something that works and we know the Premier League is a marathon sprint. We can't risk wasting weeks and weeks trying to get the forward pointing 4-3-3 right if we're going be genuine contenders.

Awesome post, I totally agree that it would be more beneficial to go back to the formation we were using towards the end of last year. I found something (not sure if it has been posted in this thread) that has really helped me understand what LVG has been trying to do. I was too young to remember anything about his Ajax team, but this article helps clear up a lot for me.
http://www.football-news-views.co.u...van-gaal-philosophy-revealed-(no-really!).php
After having been so frustrated with LVG, i see what he is trying to achieve, and if the players fully grasp it, i will be extatic

 

[MikeUpNorth]

Should someone tell Louis?

I don't understand the point - isn't this just reaffirming that it's better to be the team with more possession?

Looks like it's 41:35 in favour of the team with more possession. Better to be that team on average.

 

[Balu]

That forward pointing 433 thing is such a weird way to call a 4231. I'd argue the Ajax side in '95 was more a 3-4-3 anyway with de Boer being more of a left sided centerback than a leftback and Rijkaard spending a lot more time in midfield than in defense. Litmanen's role was similar to Müller's role in van Gaal's Bayern side and he always called our team a 4231, which is a way better way of describing it if you use a 2nd striker as a number 10 instead of a creative midfielder and that's what he's doing now with Memphis as well. Memphis played as close to goal as Rooney and clearly further forward than both wingers. This whole philosophy gibberish seems to confuse van Gaal himself.

 

[Ish]

@#07

Good post. Our home match vs City last season was a great example of Smalling leading the defence to push up quite high, bridging the gap between the "lines". We put City under immense pressure, and with Rooney doing a great job as a LvG type CF by keeping both CB's occupied, I think it was probably our closest performance to an ideal LvG setup? (or well, the first 45 mins anyway).

I think the double pivot (pointing forward) system could work, if as you mentioned, Schwein regains his fitness/form and we pair him with Schneiderlin. Or we use Mata or Herrera (instead of Memphis - shift him to the wing) as the #10.

 

[Ish]

I don't understand the point - isn't this just reaffirming that it's better to be the team with more possession?

Looks like it's 41:35 in favour of the team with more possession. Better to be that team on average.

I think he probably means, if you want to be a title challenging team, you probably need at least a 60-70% win ratio? But yeah. You'll get teams below and above the "mean", obviously.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I don't understand the point - isn't this just reaffirming that it's better to be the team with more possession?

Looks like it's 41:35 in favour of the team with more possession. Better to be that team on average.

Yeah, it's semantics. The point seems to be that the team with most possession will not win more often than they win. Which does seem counter-intuitive.

Like you say, though, they're more likely to win than a team who has less than 50% of the possession in any given game.

 

[Balu]

difference is in the 3-4-3, the "4" consists of Rijkaard, who was used in a hybrid defender-defensive midfielder role by LvG. in defense he would move back to join Blind, Reiziger, de Boer while in possession he pushed forward to become the base of midfield. the thing is he had two box-to-box guys in Davids and Seedorf (no further introduction) while in his current days the midfielders stay deeper

I know. Which is why I wouldn't compare it at all to United.

 

[Red_Beans]

Just like last season, we are starting the season slowly. I don't mean in terms of results, but in terms of players fitness or rhythm or whatever you want to call it. I think LVG intends for us to only peak later, and carry that through to the end.

Whether or not this is correct or advisable is another discussion. LVG has set us up like this. So until we hit our players peak Van Gaal is playing a strategy that limits risks, essentially to grind out 1-0's until the squad is ready to step up the gears. This may also have something to do with all the new players in the squad. Last season some posters here argue we found the winning formula by accident, or were forced into it by injury. I believe that LVG switched to it when he felt the squad was ready, and will do so again this year. I am expecting a slow few months before we hit our stride and finish strongly.

This is a big assumption after one competitive game of course, and only my opinion.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Just like last season, we are starting the season slowly. I don't mean in terms of results, but in terms of players fitness or rhythm or whatever you want to call it. I think LVG intends for us to only peak later, and carry that through to the end.

Whether or not this is correct or advisable is another discussion. LVG has set us up like this. So until we hit our players peak Van Gaal is playing a strategy that limits risks, essentially to grind out 1-0's until the squad is ready to step up the gears. This may also have something to do with all the new players in the squad. Last season some posters here argue we found the winning formula by accident, or were forced into it by injury. I believe that LVG switched to it when he felt the squad was ready, and will do so again this year. I am expecting a slow few months before we hit our stride and finish strongly.

This is a big assumption after one competitive game of course, and only my opinion.

Well I'm a fan of that theory!

 

[Crackers]

I've had my fill of his tactics, I'm bored. Hopefully he makes them play a bit quicker and makes the play a bit more fluid. Putting players in the right positions will help solve this, and fine players who hold the ball longer than needed.

 

[NoLogo]

I don't understand the point - isn't this just reaffirming that it's better to be the team with more possession?

Looks like it's 41:35 in favour of the team with more possession. Better to be that team on average.

Yeah it's totally stupid. They basically say "see 59% of games the team with more possession didn't win" and compare that to the 41% the teams with more possession won. But that's a stupid comparison it should rather be 59% of the time the team with more possession didn't win vs. 65% of the time teams with more possession didn't lose.

Generally I think everyone by now understood the point that possession just for possessions sake is more or less useless. You need to know what to do with the ball if you have but that's basic football logic and I don't need OPTA stats to show that to me.

 

[#07]

Thanks for the pats on the back @lem8sh, @LexiRed, @Ish84045. Really interesting article @LexiRed. Very detailed and eye opening.

More broadly, since Van Gaal is not going to change as he is determined to show his playing style is the right style, I guess we'll just have to keep our fingers crossed that the penny drops.

I fancy we'd have found it easier to beat Spurs had we played 4-3-3 with the backwards point, or 2-3-2-3 as Van Gaal calls it in that article (sometimes I wish he'd settle on one name for these formations! ). I think 4-3-3 is a better system for compensating for the weaknesses of our best players e.g. Carrick, while allowing us to field more of our better performers e.g. Herrera. However, if Van Gaal can get United 2015 playing like Ajax 1995 nobody will be complaining. I just think that's a massive 'if'.

 

[Lewis.no.9]

Possession doesnt always equal goals, it just means your slightly less likely to concede (although debatable with our current defensive situations). So it doesnt guarantee success at all. And actually all it is, is a very sophisticated version of David Moyes's "We will make it tough for them to play against us" speech that he was rightly condemned for.

 

[Rich_H_1989]

I know I've been critical of LVG on here recently... Obvious statement of the year I know! But it's only through frustration at the way we've been playing for so long now. And actually that does go back to before his time.

I can see what LVG is trying to do, well I think I do. And of course he's not sending us out there to create one or two chances and win by a fluky goal. It is good to have that in the bag though as you need luck / fortune to win the league.

The main issue he's got is that he's really not got the players right now to play the way he wants. When you look at that Ajax team it's frightening how good they were.

What he's trying to go I guess is build the foundations for the next manager. Of course he will believe he can win something with us but I'd say that's unlikely given where we are right now.

The trouble is he's kind of in a difficult place. Does he stick with what's worked for him before? Or given the players he has to work with does he abandon his philosophy in the hope something else will work.

The main issue I see with the team at the moment is the lack of pace and the speed of our play. A lot of the passes aren't crisp enough which means we end up losing the attacking impetus. That's down to the players on the pitch though. When you see Barca pass the ball around there is pace on the passes and purpose. I don't see that with us right now. It's all too laboured because as we've already said he doesn't have the players really to get zip and movement.

 

[Red_Beans]

I know I've been critical of LVG on here recently... Obvious statement of the year I know! But it's only through frustration at the way we've been playing for so long now. And actually that does go back to before his time.

I can see what LVG is trying to do, well I think I do. And of course he's not sending us out there to create one or two chances and win by a fluky goal. It is good to have that in the bag though as you need luck / fortune to win the league.

The main issue he's got is that he's really not got the players right now to play the way he wants. When you look at that Ajax team it's frightening how good they were.

What he's trying to go I guess is build the foundations for the next manager. Of course he will believe he can win something with us but I'd say that's unlikely given where we are right now.

The trouble is he's kind of in a difficult place. Does he stick with what's worked for him before? Or given the players he has to work with does he abandon his philosophy in the hope something else will work.

The main issue I see with the team at the moment is the lack of pace and the speed of our play. A lot of the passes aren't crisp enough which means we end up losing the attacking impetus. That's down to the players on the pitch though. When you see Barca pass the ball around there is pace on the passes and purpose. I don't see that with us right now. It's all too laboured because as we've already said he doesn't have the players really to get zip and movement.

This has been repeated over and over, but the lack of a CB that LVG feels comfortable with is a massive setback for us.
Forget the left foot right foot thing for a minute, LVG clearly wants a ball playing CB. So much so that he is prepared to play Blind in that position. I don't think Van Gaal is over the moon with the situation, hence he is restricting the freedom of the fullbacks and CM's to cover for Blind.

The problem is, there really are no options out there that are clear improvements on what we gave. Hummels would of been perfect, and I think he was Van Gaal's #1 priority when the transfer window opened, but he chose not to leave. Ramos would of worked, but again he isn't going anywhere. Stones and Laporte are both the type of ball playing CB's he wants, but both fall into the 'potential' bracket at the moment.

We could of had Oatenmendi months ago, but he isn't good enough on the ball for LVG, so why pay 36 million odd quid for a player who we gonna look to replace anyway?

I cannot think of another CB who fits the bill, which makes me think we may not sign a CB at all this window

 

[Sunny Jim]

Should someone tell Louis?

so he can ban the journo who wrote it?

 

[Adebesi]

Really interesting post @#07

One thing though, Memphis seems like an odd choice to play the Litmanen role, if Van Gaal is trying to recreate that Ajax side. Arent they very different in style? Or maybe my memory deceives me.

 

[#07]

Really interesting post @#07

One thing though, Memphis seems like an odd choice to play the Litmanen role, if Van Gaal is trying to recreate that Ajax side. Arent they very different in style? Or maybe my memory deceives me.

I suppose Van Gaal thinks what Memphis lacks in timing and positioning he can make up in terms of raw pace, by getting in behind when Rooney takes people out with runs. Personally, as expressed above, I do not believe that Memphis is right for the role of #10 in Van Gaal's system. Still, Van Gaal had success with Robben as a #10 and he seems now to think that someone who fits that profile e.g. a fast dribbler is the way to go. He tried it a bit last year with Di Maria, he's trying it with Memphis now. I prefer the Litmanen, Muller type for that role but admittedly we don't have a Litmanen or Muller type. That's partly why I think we'd play 4-3-3 with the point backwards better than with the point forward. Still, I am not the coach so its not up to me. Like I said, I just hope this works out. I don't want us end up dropping points, like we did at the start of last season, because the players spend weeks trying to figure out the new system.

 

[Jerch]

Should someone tell Louis?

What? That teams with more possesion wins more often. He probably already know that.

 

[rover]

given our current crops of players i'm more convinced to play 343

if this is a good news to the fanboys of herrera, he & schneiderlin can be the two pillars in midfield. both carrick & schweini are versatile enough to take the no 6 role. all our defenders are comfortable in a back 3 lineup. number 10 could still be the problem but nonetheless this has the less impact under 343 i would say

 

[Sunny Jim]

What? That teams with more possesion wins more often. He probably already know that.

59% of games not won (drawn, lost) by team woth more possesion.

 

[rover]

Yeah, it's semantics. The point seems to be that the team with most possession will not win more often than they win. Which does seem counter-intuitive.

Like you say, though, they're more likely to win than a team who has less than 50% of the possession in any given game.

there are only three possible outcomes to happen for a game: win, draw, loss

if they are random then the expected outcome will be all 1/3

if they aren't, as i believe so as a draw is the less possible outcome despite i don't have empirical data in hand, the figure you provided still suggest a team with more possession outperform a team with less possession in winning out a game: 0.41 vs 0.35

bbc really sucks

 

[Adebesi]

I suppose Van Gaal thinks what Memphis lacks in timing and positioning he can make up in terms of raw pace, by getting in behind when Rooney takes people out with runs. Personally, as expressed above, I do not believe that Memphis is right for the role of #10 in Van Gaal's system. Still, Van Gaal had success with Robben as a #10 and he seems now to think that someone who fits that profile e.g. a fast dribbler is the way to go. He tried it a bit last year with Di Maria, he's trying it with Memphis now. I prefer the Litmanen, Muller type for that role but, admittedly we don't have a Litmanen or Muller type. That's partly why I think we'd play 4-3-3 with the point backwards better than with the point forward. Still, I am not the coach so its not up to me. Like I said, I just hope this works out. I don't want us end up dropping points, like we did at the start of last season, because the players spend weeks trying to figure out the new system.

I guess what I mean is, given the very considerable differences between the number 10s he has chosen to play in the respective systems - and the other differences in personnel you outlined, what makes you think he is consciously trying to replicate that Ajax team? It looks like he is trying to create something different. Obviously there are similarities because he has his little idiosyncrasies which have persisted throughout his whole career, so each team probably has elements of the others within it. Do you think every team he has had has attempted to recreate Ajax? Or is this in your opinion something different, so it is like bookends to his career, the first and last teams having a certain symmetry?

 

[Rich_H_1989]

I suppose Van Gaal thinks what Memphis lacks in timing and positioning he can make up in terms of raw pace, by getting in behind when Rooney takes people out with runs. Personally, as expressed above, I do not believe that Memphis is right for the role of #10 in Van Gaal's system. Still, Van Gaal had success with Robben as a #10 and he seems now to think that someone who fits that profile e.g. a fast dribbler is the way to go. He tried it a bit last year with Di Maria, he's trying it with Memphis now. I prefer the Litmanen, Muller type for that role but admittedly we don't have a Litmanen or Muller type. That's partly why I think we'd play 4-3-3 with the point backwards better than with the point forward. Still, I am not the coach so its not up to me. Like I said, I just hope this works out. I don't want us end up dropping points, like we did at the start of last season, because the players spend weeks trying to figure out the new system.

My biggest worry with this is that while it could work out for Memphis there is a big risk that it doesn't? It didn't with ADM and look what happened!

Not saying that LVG will sell Memphis in the same way or drop him because it's a very different set of circumstances but could he ruin his confidence?

Players like ADM and Memphis want to be able to get at players, take them on and create. They don't want to be getting the ball with their back to goal because they want to instantly be running at people.

Of course though it's early days so I'm not saying Memphis will struggle in the role. I'm just saying its a concern.

 

[#07]

I guess what I mean is, given the very considerable differences between the number 10s he has chosen to play in the respective systems - and the other differences in personnel you outlined, what makes you think he is consciously trying to replicate that Ajax team? It looks like he is trying to create something different. Obviously there are similarities because he has his little idiosyncrasies which have persisted throughout his whole career, so each team probably has elements of the others within it. Do you think every team he has had has attempted to recreate Ajax? Or is this in your opinion something different, so it is like bookends to his career, the first and last teams having a certain symmetry?

I think at every club Van Gaal has gone to he has, at first, had in mind to apply his 'philosophy'. The most perfect expression of that philosophy is Ajax 1995.

As he has gotten older he has become more pragmatic. The Van Gaal who arrived at Barcelona in the late 90s is very different than the Van Gaal that arrived at United last summer. When he arrived at Barcelona his clear intent was to create another Ajax. He insulted players who didn't understand his methods, he spent heavily buying Ajax players. That's gone now. With age Van Gaal has become more forgiving of players who can't do what he wants, and he has also become more cautious. The last thing you can say about the 90s Ajax team was that they were cautious. On the contrary they were fearless to the point of recklessness, they loved having the ball but they were not concerned about losing it because they were so arrogant about being able to win it back through quick, aggressive pressing. When your midfield is a young, energetic Seedorf and Davids you can afford to think that way I guess.

However, to some extent, I think Van Gaal sees the end of his career coming and recognises he has been offered a golden opportunity: For the first time since he left Ajax Van Gaal has complete control over the football affairs of a club. More than that United are giving Van Gaal more financial backing than even Barcelona and Bayern gave him. In short, he's being given all the tools needed to put in place his philosophy. Even at Ajax he didn't have that. When Ajax lost players, like they lost Seedorf, Van Gaal had to train new ones. He couldn't just go and buy the Germany captain. I think Van Gaal has looked at it and thought 'I've got two years left to show people how football should really be played, and I've got the cash to spend to buy the players I need to do so. I'm gonna do it'. If we get off to a slow start like last season he'll change it. However, I wouldn't be surprised if, at the start of next season after two more transfer windows, he gave it one last go.

I think partly why Van Gaal is keen on Giggs taking over is, much like Fergie, he believes Giggs will keep his philosophy going once he leaves. Van Gaal's dream scenario, I'm sure, is to make Man Utd another Ajax. Once he has United playing that way he can then hand over to Giggs. Giggs can then continue his methods and embed them at every level of United from U8s upwards.

Van Gaal wants a legacy. I just worry that the desire for legacy is clouding his judgement a bit. I'm not sure whether we have the players, even after spending £200 million, to play like his Ajax. Only Pep's Barcelona has managed to get to (and in my opinion surpass) that level, and they had Xavi, Iniesta and Messi. Rich as United are we can't get players that good.

 

[Jerch]

59% of games not won (drawn, lost) by team woth more possesion.

Yeah but 65% games not won (drawn, lost) by team with less possesion...

 

[World Game]

I think at every club Van Gaal has gone to he has, at first, had in mind to apply his 'philosophy'. The most perfect expression of that philosophy is Ajax 1995.

As he has gotten older he has become more pragmatic. The Van Gaal who arrived at Barcelona in the late 90s is very different than the Van Gaal that arrived at United last summer. When he arrived at Barcelona his clear intent was to create another Ajax. He insulted players who didn't understand his methods, he spent heavily buying Ajax players. That's gone now. With age Van Gaal has become more forgiving of players who can't do what he wants, and he has also become more cautious. The last thing you can say about the 90s Ajax team was that they were cautious. On the contrary they were fearless to the point of recklessness, they loved having the ball but they were not concerned about losing it because they were so arrogant about being able to win it back through quick, aggressive pressing. When your midfield is a young, energetic Seedorf and Davids you can afford to think that way I guess.

However, to some extent, I think Van Gaal sees the end of his career coming and recognises he has been offered a golden opportunity: For the first time since he left Ajax Van Gaal has complete control over the football affairs of a club. More than that United are giving Van Gaal more financial backing than even Barcelona and Bayern gave him. In short, he's being given all the tools needed to put in place his philosophy. Even at Ajax he didn't have that. When Ajax lost players, like they lost Seedorf, Van Gaal had to train new ones. He couldn't just go and buy the Germany captain. I think Van Gaal has looked at it and thought 'I've got two years left to show people how football should really be played, and I've got the cash to spend to buy the players I need to do so. I'm gonna do it'. If we get off to a slow start like last season he'll change it. However, I wouldn't be surprised if at the start of next season, after two more transfer windows, if he gave it one last go.

I think partly why Van Gaal is keen on Giggs taking over is, much like Fergie, he believes Giggs will keep his philosophy going once he leaves. Van Gaal's dream scenario, I'm sure, is to make Man Utd another Ajax. Once he has United playing that way he can then hand over to Giggs. Giggs can then continue his methods and embed them at every level of United from U8s upwards.

Van Gaal wants a legacy. I just worry that the desire for legacy is clouding his judgement a bit. I'm not sure whether we have the players, even after spending £200 million, to play like his Ajax. Only Pep's Barcelona has managed to get to (and in my opinion surpass) that level, and they had Xavi, Iniesta and Messi. Rich as United are we can't get players that good.

Nice post, agreed with fully. Just on the last paragraph, - the idea is you make those players rather than buy them. It is much more reliable to bring up young players who are taught to think and play a certain way all their life than buying an established player and then trying to teach them once they are already used to one way of playing. It's often overlooked but at both Barcelona and Bayern, the rewards were reaped years after Van Gaal's time when those young players who were under his influence became established first team players. LvG once told Xavi while he was still a youngster that he was better than Zidane. During Barca's and Bayern's peak, a large portion of their teams consisted of home grown players who were influenced by LvG. Guardiola and Enrique who were both key players under LvG no doubt have both taken pages out of LvG's book.

 

[#07]

Nice post, agreed with fully. Just on the last paragraph, - the idea is you make those players rather than buy them. It is much more reliable to bring up young players who are taught to think and play a certain way all their life than buying an established player and then trying to teach them once they are already used to one way of playing. It's often overlooked but at both Barcelona and Bayern, the rewards were reaped years after Van Gaal's time when those young players who were under his influence became established first team players. LvG once told Xavi while he was still a youngster that he was better than Zidane. During Barca's and Bayern's peak, a large portion of their teams consisted of home grown players who were influenced by LvG. Guardiola and Enrique who were both key players under LvG no doubt have both taken pages out of LvG's book.

Yeah, I agree that if all things were equal that's what Van Gaal would love to do. I take him at face value though when he says come rain or shine he will honour his promise to Truus and quit by the end of 2017. That means he doesn't have the time to nurture as many players as, I feel, he would ideally like to. He has to buy them if he wants, by this time next year, to have realised his philosophy on the pitch with Manchester United. I feel he's aiming to do that. I haven't got total confidence he'll pull it off. Still, I've been watching clips of Ajax 1994/95 and 1995/96 and I've now convinced myself that is how we'll be playing against Villa, so I'm cool with letting him try. Obviously if we end up with a bore score draw on Friday night my mood will significantly worsen again...

...Until then though!

 

[darioterios]

Still, I've been watching clips of Ajax 1994/95 and 1995/96 and I've now convinced myself that is how we'll be playing against Villa, so I'm cool with letting him try

less than one week and you suddenly think they can play like that
well excuse me if all you mean is just a relaxed joke

 

[Shiva87]

The gap between our lines is the real issue with United playing 4-2-3-1, or 4-3-3 with the point forward as Van Gaal prefers to call it.

I do not believe Memphis' positioning helps the situation. However, I'm sure Van Gaal would argue that if the team carried out his instructions properly there wouldn't be an issue.

What Van Gaal appears to be trying to do is recreate his Ajax side of 20 years ago. If you think about the typical Ajax line up from around c. 1995 it would look something like this:

R. De Boer(or Kluivert)

Overmars Litmanen Finidi

Davids Seedorf

F. De Boer Blind Rijkaard Reizinger

Van Der Sar​

Three things, above and beyond the raw brilliance of the players, were required to make this team as great as it was: 1. The positioning of the number 10, 2. the positioning of Rijkaard, 3. the distance between Ajax's lines. Any one of these elements being missing and the whole thing would have fallen apart.

With Litmanen at number 10 Ajax had the perfect player to reinforce the attack. Litmanen's use of space was very clever. He seemed to get where he needed to be and when.

With Rijkaard at centre back Ajax had the perfect centre back to play out through. Further, when Ajax had possession Rijkaard would step out of the back line and become the anchor of the midfield. This effectively formed a midfield diamond given how Litmanen played, similar to how Barcelona used Messi as a false #9 under Pep to always have numerical advantage in centre midfield, forming two triangles at all times to circulate the ball around pressure.

With very little distance between the lines Ajax could compress the space on the pitch. They would bring their centre backs up to halfway and try to play the whole game in the opposition half, again similar to Pep's Guardiola. By playing a high back line, Van Gaal fit his whole team into a very small space. This meant that huge gaps did not open up between the players in defence, midfield and attack.

Clearly, as I'm sure @NL Max is going to tell us when he gets around to doing his promised full tactical analysis of Van Gaal's football, this is what Van Gaal wants to put in place at Manchester United.

The problem is I am unsure whether we have the players to make Van Gaal's playing style a reality.

First, Memphis is not Litmanen. As a footballer Memphis may actually be more naturally gifted than Litmanen, in terms of tricks and flicks. What Memphis lacks though is the same understanding of time and space that Litmanen had.

Second, Blind is not Rijkaard. Blind is a clever footballer and tactically he's mature enough to grasp what Van Gaal will want from him as the ball playing centre back. Still, Rijkaard was one of the best players in the world even after his Milan days. Blind is just not at that level. In terms of the raw materials Rijkaard was just more to work with.

Third, and most importantly, we do not make the pitch as small as Ajax did. Despite Memphis running off after the ball at times, the gap between our double pivot and our 10 would be smaller if we played the whole game in the opposition half. However, our players are hesitant to do this. It has always been Carrick's game to drop off, and as he ages he's probably becoming more aware of his physical limitations. His instinct will tell him to drop back because he cannot energetically press high for 90 minutes. This affects the defence, which is also not that quick (barring Smalling) and quite inexperienced. They respond to our double pivot dropping backwards by dropping backwards as well. If Memphis doesn't adjust his position to compensate for this backwards movement a gap opens up in the middle of midfield and that destroys the diamond/two triangles. No passing moves can get going. The team is disjointed and cant play out, except down the wings which relies on individual quality rather than Van Gaal's preferred philosophy of interplay and positioning.

Where we are today is similar to where Van Gaal found Barcelona when he took over from Bobby Robson. We can't play the way he wants us to. At the Camp Nou, Van Gaal solved this by changing his 4-3-3 to the backwards pointing version that has become Barcelona's trademark. He did the same thing last season at United, shifting us to a backwards pointing 4-3-3. Carrick got to do the Guardiola role, his dropping deep was compensated by the centre backs splitting wide and the two box-to-box midfielders either side of him adjusting their positions so the team did not end up getting segmented.

I hope I am proven wrong and that Van Gaal can make Man Utd play like Ajax. I worry that in abandoning the backwards pointing 4-3-3 that saw us dominate City and Liverpool last season, Van Gaal risks giving up vital ground to our rivals. This is why I think we need to go back to last season's version of 4-3-3 and bring Herrera back into the heart of midfield where his movement can compensate for Carrick's lower mobility and energy level.

If Schweinsteiger gets back to his best and forms an axis with Schneiderlin, and if Memphis learns the #10 role well, its possible the forward pointing 4-3-3 will eventually come good. My question is: why risk it? We have something that works and we know the Premier League is a marathon sprint. We can't risk wasting weeks and weeks trying to get the forward pointing 4-3-3 right if we're going be genuine contenders.

Great post, but my points:

1. The forward pointing 4-3-3 is primarily to take the pressure off our defence. He doesn't want us to concede goals/ get overrun in front of the defenders. Last season he solved this problem by using DDG as a ball-passing keeper. DDG just took the ball and lofted it to Fellaini's head every time our defenders came under pressure from opposing strikers. With no Fellaini in the starting line-up (and maybe no DDG), this is no longer possible. The backward point helps in keeping the ball.

2. Forward point gives a designated no.10 who's job is to score and assist (taking pressure off the lone striker). I think LVG knows that Rooney is not sharp enough to carry the goal scoring responsibility for the whole team. He is not that talismanic goal scoring striker anymore. He needs a designated partner to share responsibility (again Fellaini was relevant here last season).

3. Forward point helps in generating triangles near the center of the 18-yard box (based on the No.10's positioning) - with the striker and one of the wingers. The forward pointing 4-3-3 makes these triangles around the sides of the opponent's pitch - making the team a focussed crossing team. We dont have such a tall striker.

So-I guess the shift makes sense

 

[Borys]

What bothers me the most is that I thought we made some excellent acquisitions this summer, players who not only fit the 4-3-3 system we've been playing, but also are instant improvements... And in the moment I thought it all makes sense... He changed the system.
So far it's too difficult to understand for me why he did this.

 

[Borys]

What bothers me the most is that I thought we made some excellent acquisitions this summer, players who not only fit the 4-3-3 system we've been playing, but also are instant improvements... And in the moment I thought it all makes sense... He changed the system.
So far it's too difficult to understand for me why he did this.

 

[ravelston]

@#07

"This affects the defence, which is also not that quick (barring Smalling) and quite inexperienced." Darmian and Shaw are not slow (nor indeed is Jones); Darmian, Smalling and Blind are not inexperienced (nor indeed is Jones). Just saying.

Don't you think that a lot of the practical issues of implementing any tactical approach are conditioned by the behaviours of the opposition? When you get the amount of time and space that WBA afforded City, they looked like world beaters; against Barcelona, not so much. Even Barcelona never looked particularly good playing against Bielsa's Athletic (and I don't even want to think about what Athletic did to us - humiliating). Playing an aggressive, high-pressing team makes it hard to develop a rhythm and find space. In those circumstances, avoiding the types of mistake that leave you exposed is crucial. The most encouraging thing about the Spurs game was the way we pounced on their mistake - that's what a pressing team is supposed to do. The other encouragement came from our defensive solidity - at least until the Valencia and Herrera substitutions. Defense is a team exercise and we finally seem to be playing as a team in defense. With two fit, high-pressing teams it was never going to be a pretty game and, given the number of PL teams going that route, we can expect a lot of games like that. The key is to take the opportunities offered and win them - which we did on Saturday.

 

[darioterios]

"This affects the defence, which is also not that quick (barring Smalling) and quite inexperienced." Darmian and Shaw are not slow (nor indeed is Jones); Darmian, Smalling and Blind are not inexperienced (nor indeed is Jones). Just saying.

top level, league competing and UCL experience. I'd say yes

 

[IwatUwat]

Thought Carragher and Martinez reviewing it on Monday night was really interesting, the Blind running out of CB and picking up their 10. Risky but more continental style leaving it man for man at the back. Didnt seem to worry Martinez but I could see Carragher's point around a few good passes and we'd be left hugely exposed. All for the pressing game. However you look at other teams and they seem to do the pressing game just be exerting a bit more energy and asking midfield / strikers to cover more ground. Bilbao spring to mind vs us a few seasons back

 

[RedPnutz]

Again. It's about the quality of football we play. We can't ignore last season.

Saying that we failed is precisely ignoring last season and how we went from 7th to 4th.

 

[SirFergie]

Thought Carragher and Martinez reviewing it on Monday night was really interesting, the Blind running out of CB and picking up their 10. Risky but more continental style leaving it man for man at the back. Didnt seem to worry Martinez but I could see Carragher's point around a few good passes and we'd be left hugely exposed. All for the pressing game. However you look at other teams and they seem to do the pressing game just be exerting a bit more energy and asking midfield / strikers to cover more ground. Bilbao spring to mind vs us a few seasons back

That's the risk you take. I'm sure LvG would argue that if instructions are carried out properly, situations wouldn't get that far. You have to trust the ability of your players in these situations and I trust Smalling, Darmian and Shaw to solve anything that comes out of situations such as the one you describe. More so than if Jones and Valencia were there.