antsmithmk
Hates women.
- Joined
- Feb 11, 2014
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Should someone tell Louis?
Those stat's can be interpreted in other ways... 65% of the time the team with most possession either wins or draws for example.
Should someone tell Louis?
Exactly. I'm it sure those stats tell the story the author wants them too. Also we where does the data come from?Yeah but 65% games not won (drawn, lost) by team with less possesion...
top level, league competing and UCL experience. I'd say yes
I just want to point out the Eriksen chance came from Darmian forgetting to hold the line. If it's Aguero, Ibra... well that's where the place I would like a senior head comes in to help them avoidI think the inexperienced thing is wearing very thin.
Darmian: First played for Milan in '06-07. Last three seasons with Torino in Serie A. 17 Europa League appearances; 13 caps for Italy - voted their best player for 2014-15.
Smalling: Starting his 6th year at United. 29 European appearances (mostly UCL). 18 caps for England.
Jones: 6 PL seasons, 4 at United. 20 European appearances (mostly/all? UCL). 17 caps for England.
Blind: 6 seasons in the Eredivisie (5 at Ajax), one in PL. 24 European appearances (mix of Europa League and UCL). 25 caps for the Netherlands.
I just want to point out the Eriksen chance came from Darmian forgetting to hold the line. If it's Aguero, Ibra... well that's where the place I would like a senior head comes in to help them avoid
Should someone tell Louis?
Should someone tell Louis?
Lazy stats (not aimed at you Pogue). A more meaningful analysis would be to count possession when the match is tied and correlate that to win %.
Generally speaking, possession is a measure of talent and can be used as a predictor for future performance. There are outliers for genuine football reasons (Pulis' Stoke) but the trend is there. Saying that I'm also being lazy and not backing it up with data right now. However, you only have to watch football to know that when a team takes the lead, the opponents will probably have more possession than usual for the remainder of the imbalance. This skews the stats above.
Another example would be corners. Last season 51% of corners went to the losing team, but it'd be naive to say that a team known for getting lots of corners is more likely to lose. Last year Man City had the most corners followed by Arsenal in 2nd and Chelsea in 4th.
I'll go be boring somewhere else now.
I genuinely believe the Spurs game would of been way better had Rooney played No.10, with Hernandez ahead of him and Mata and Memphis as wingers. If Van Gaal wants to carry on using 2 midfielders like that and 2 forwards, then surely Hernandez makes way more sense uptop then any other striker we have on the books?. Why isnt he getting any minutes.
He sure loves possession."A match is defined in four main moments," said van Gaal. "We call them ball possession, ball possession of the opponent, transition to ball possession and transition to ball possession of the opponent.
Ball possession, to be precise. Luca Toni found that out the hard way.He sure loves possession.
What happened to, "I shall play 4-3-3?"Van Gaal explains Memphis' position
Louis van Gaal has revealed why he is playing Memphis Depay in a central role as he attempted to explain his tactical system to MUTV.
In an exclusive interview, the Manchester United manager answered a question on whether the formation used on the opening day against Tottenham Hotspur was 4-3-3, 4-4-1-1 or 4-2-3-1, and indicated he prefers a second striker to operate in the spot currently being occupied by Memphis.
"A match is defined in four main moments," said van Gaal. "We call them ball possession, ball possession of the opponent, transition to ball possession and transition to ball possession of the opponent. That you have to see [analyse] in every system at a main moment and then the systems are always different.
"So when you play in ball possession of the opponent it can be 4-3-2-1 but it can also be 4-4-1-1. It is dependable of how you play against an opponent. I hope the spectators are still aware of what I’ve said but it is like that."
In terms of Memphis' place in the line-up, he stated: "I prefer that position to be more a second striker than a third midfielder. I want to see Memphis in that role, of course.
"It is also, for him, maybe more difficult because he has to make the step to the Premier League, to Manchester United, a new club. Maybe I shall use him also at the left-wing position because he knows that much better."
Full-backs Matteo Darmian and Luke Shaw are also integral to the manager's formation.
"In our playing style, they are very important because they have to overlap our wingers who are playing there," added van Gaal.
"But they have to recover their shape in defence again. That is a very demanding position but they did very well against Spurs."
Should someone tell Louis?
Opta statistics, produced in conjunction with Castrol, show that over the past two seasons in the Premier League in only around a third of games did one side have 60% of possession or more, and when they did they won 52% of the time, and lost 25%. If a side had 70% possession or over (which happened in 4.7% of games), they won 67% of the time and lost 17%. Only once in the past two seasons did one side have over 80 per cent possession – Liverpool, in their 3-2 win at Bolton last August.
In the closer games, having 50-59.9% possession meant a side won 43% of the time and lost 31%. So there is a clear correlation between dominating possession and winning matches.
He seems to have looked at Jose's Chelsea and copied the formation. We just lack a Hazard to bring it all together.
For now, I'm glad we look like a gritty compact team that's hard to play against, shows the teams come a long way from the defensive shambles of last season.
Something I've been wondering about. When LvG said his 4-2-3-1 morphed into a 4-4-1-1 in attack, and the surprise inclusion of Januzaj, I'm wondering if maybe Giggs isn't having more input and impact tactically and in selection in conjunction with LvG.
I doubt that. Louis sees the game in four distinctive phases, and in his mind there is a formation for every single one of them.
If you're particularly interested in how he sees the game check out the 78 slide presentation he did on Barcelona's philosophy. It explains Van Gaal's way of thinking about football much better than I ever could, even without him speaking to the slides. Although I think there is some video of him somewhere on the internet actually explaining what each of the slides mean in practice.
Honestly speaking, when it comes to tactical thinking, I believe Van Gaal is one of the best out there together with Bielsa, Pep and Mourinho. Where Van Gaal sometimes falls down is that players are often more limited than his tactical vision. So sometimes it doesn't look quite as good in practice as on paper.
Last night there were encouraging signs for his forward pointing 4-3-3. At half time it all seemed to fall apart though. It wasn't until he introduced Basti and Ander and went to a backwards pointing 4-3-3 with Morgan anchoring that we regained control of the game. As I have said previously, I think the backwards pointing version works better for our squad. Some would say because its easier to execute than the forward pointing version of Van Gaal's Ajax. My response would be, perhaps. However, surely Spain and Barcelona, who play the backwards pointing version outlined in Van Gaal's presentation I linked above, can't have got it all wrong given how successful they've been over the past half a dozen years.
I might just be being daft but I get the feeling that van Gaal's system is a bit too systematic, in the sense of restricting the freedom of some of the players, suppressing egos for the 'good' of the team etc. Sure discipline is important but I think it's also important for certain players to be allowed to express themselves more than what we see with some of the robotic systems.
Perhaps right now it's a case of first getting the system embedded into the players heads, particularly the new ones, then thinking about allowing the lads to express themselves. Bit of silly speculation there though, can't know for sure what's going on behind the scenes, and more importantly I'm probably talking shit.
I might just be being daft but I get the feeling that van Gaal's system is a bit too systematic, in the sense of restricting the freedom of some of the players, suppressing egos for the 'good' of the team etc. Sure discipline is important but I think it's also important for certain players to be allowed to express themselves more than what we see with some of the robotic systems.
Perhaps right now it's a case of first getting the system embedded into the players heads, particularly the new ones, then thinking about allowing the lads to express themselves. Bit of silly speculation there though, can't know for sure what's going on behind the scenes, and more importantly I'm probably talking shit.
What intrigued me last night (in spite of his piss poor performance) is how deep Rooney plays off the ball for a number 9 in a one striker system, whenever Richards or Clark were on the ball he'd drop next to Januzaj, making it near impossible for Villa to play through their midfield. Whilst this contributes to our defensively solidarity it does make me wonder if we are playing the one striker system correctly, I think Rooney should be another 10 yards up and I think it would help him a lot. I do remember Rooney playing up top by himself vs. City I think and Gary Neville did a piece on it after highlighting Rooney's unselfishness in that position although I think it was more to do with Rooney staying in between the 2 CB's but this is something he didn't seem to do at all last night.
I wonder if Van Gaal thinks Depay's pace is better suited on the break hence him trying him out as a 10 close to Rooney to break off of Rooney, happened again last night with Depay drifting inside. Our front 3/4 has a really weird balance to be honest, Mata, Januzaj and Rooney all kind of drift into the same areas and it was only Depay on the left who was an outlet. I think Pedro on the right would help a lot.
Its been a hallmark of the Van Gaal's sides for the #9 to drop off and allow the #10 to run beyond him. Litmanen used to do it, Muller used to do it, Robben did it at the World Cup. There is nothing unusual about Van Gaal's #9 dropping off. It all depends on the phase of play. The runs made by the #9 are meant to block off passing angles or open up space for other players. These runs are not always uniform, sometimes deep, sometimes into the channel, sometimes wide. The #9 has to have variation to his game so other players can pick their runs, and attack any space vacated by a centre back that follows the #9. Its not a question of just staying high up.
I'm sure the purpose of playing Depay centrally was to exploit his pace on the break, and you're also right that our front four does not have the balance Van Gaal tends to prefer. Usually Van Gaal would like two speedy wide players, which I guess explains the interest in Pedro, but Mata's performances have played him into the first XI.
Agreed. The back 7 seems to be nailed on at the moment, in the sense that there isn't much experimentation to do there. The front 4 however is a different story. I expect some shuffling and experimentation to happen in that area for a few more weeks.It's a bit of a jigsaw up top at the moment.
But the weird thing last night is Mata, Januzaj and Rooney were nearly blocking space for each other, our goal came from Mata being on the wrong side. Rooney is playing like a 10 at the moment and that is his worst position (in spite of pundits insisting it's his best, they seem to switch between 9 and 10 depending on wherever Rooney is not playing well at the time). Rooney would be better just playing in between the CB's at all time, especially off the ball which is period of play I'm focusing on. Get Rooney running the channels and get him more touches in the box. I don't think our squad is suited to the 10 running off of Rooney, it's better suited to a natural 10 like Mata (or Herrera as an attack minded 8) in behind a natural 9 like Rooney. Fellaini's role this year will be intriguing as he can create a lot of problems peeling off onto the full-backs as a 10 for us, obviously the issue is finding him with crosses.
It's a bit of a jigsaw up top at the moment.
Everything depends on the phase of play. As mentioned Van Gaal sees four distinct phases in how a team goes from attack to defence. Feeding into that he thinks the most effective ways to open an opposition are to create overloads or quickly switch play or do both simultaneously.
It is not an issue if a player goes to the 'wrong side' provided it takes place within the structure of Van Gaal's philosophy. For example, our first goal against Villa at home last season came from Herrera abandoning the right sided centre midfield position to overload the left side of the pitch. Because of how we moved the ball Herrera arrived late as the spare man and was able to have time and space to score. That is a text book Van Gaal goal.
Van Gaal does not think footballers should be in rigid lines like on a fussball table. On the contrary they must make the right decisions based upon the phase of play. Mata came over from the right hand side of the pitch because that's where the ball was. When Mata moves from the right, he leaves the opposition left back with a decision: follow or leave him free. If he follows then our right back can move up the touchline in space for a switch of play. If the opposition full back doesn't follow Mata, Mata can be free and overload the left side the pitch and that's what happened.
Van Gaal's football system is a bit like chess: take up positions that move the other team's pieces, to overload the opponent and not be left overloaded yourself. It involves a high degree of risk because it depends on possession. Had we lost the ball and Villa switched it quickly we'd have been left 2 vs 1 on our right. That is why Van Gaal wants the lines to close tight and for us to press so furiously. When it works it always means you have an extra man, and there is space for someone arriving late into the box on the other side of the play.
Rooney dropping deep is only an issue in isolation to the movement of the rest of our players when we attack. Messi played false #9 for years and it never had any adverse impact on Barca. Spain won Euro 2012 with a false #9 in most games too. I don't think the attacking line looked confused. I thought they regrouped and recirculated the ball well several times. The main issue was not Rooney's positioning but Rooney's touch. We could've mounted more breakaways had he managed to receive and recycle the ball consistently. Last night almost every ball into his feet led to the breakdown of our moves. If Rooney could hit form we'd exploit our positive positions much better.
I really think his style of possession football will not work with our team, Arsenal, and City play possession football and they do it the right way. I just think it doesnt play to our players strengths, and restricts attacking
Maybe it worked at Ajax, barcelona , and bayern, but they had top quality world class players to win them games, sort of how his Holland side, where so dependant on Robben, while rest of them were pretty shackled
It's the fact that he says he wants a 2nd striker there, but has to keep bringing Herrera in because it obviously not working. Not sure two strikers will work all the time.Van Gaal: "I like a second striker in that position more than a third midfielder. That is why, for example, Herrera is not playing but is always coming in because he is more of a controlling midfielder there." (if that is a real quote)
No 3 man midfield for us this season (433).
It's the fact that he says he wants a 2nd striker there, but has to keep bringing Herrera in because it obviously not working. Not sure two strikers will work all the time.
Maybe we should play Ander as the main striker, he has a better touch than Wayne.It would be more effective if the second striker was very good and also the first striker, Rooney hasn't done too well just yet and Memphis needs to train the position and Januzaj needs to improve too, I think he will go for the third midfielder eventually unless Rooney finds form and whoever plays behind him.