Israel - Iran and regional players | Please post respectfully and stay on topic

[Iker Quesadillas]

It's vastly over-simplistic to just blame the US, but that seems the cool thing to do. But where is the EU?

Europe is obviously limited in what it can do due to the U.S.'s position. For example here is an article title "Inside the European attempt to reassure Biden before Palestinian statehood decision."

The back-and-forth in the leadup to the announcements shows the extent to which American allies across the globe are attempting to balance their political interests at home with their desire to avoid further destabilizing the Middle East — all while managing their relationship with the United States, one of Israel’s staunchest allies.

We also know from a recent story that the U.S. was putting pressure on the UK after they suspended some arms shipments to Israel:

Biden administration officials privately warned the United Kingdom against suspending arms exports to Israel over concerns that it could harm attempts to broker a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, the London-based The Times reported on September 4. UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy announced on September 2 that the United Kingdom was suspending 30 of 350 export licenses to Israel over concerns that those exports could be used in violation of international humanitarian law in Israel’s war against Hamas.

The largest adult here wants one of the toddlers to kill the other. Not much else the rest can do.

 

[Idxomer]

 

[africanspur]

I don't know what Netanyahu secretly wants but if I had to guess it would be ethnic cleansing over a much longer period of time in the manner of a boiled frog. I don't think that's what we're currently seeing in Gaza. We might see it after the war ends if he blocks attempts to rebuild. He's certainly not a nice person. Because yes, when you move away from two state solutions, you by definition move towards one state solutions. That's inescapably true.

I don't care about Gaza right now.

I'm trying to figure out why Berbatrick not on board with 2 state solution = genocide supporter

But

Netanyahu not on board with 2 state solution = word jumble always avoiding the G word.

I'm not even trying to say Netanyahu is pro genocide. Just trying to figure out how the two statements above match in your head.

 

[Gandalf Greyhame]

If it's any solace, this is basically where I arrive now. We desperately needed a figure to stand up for peace and be charismatic enough to get large support, while also powerful enough to actually influence real-world actions. Instead you have zealots on both sides. While there have been instances of Israeli PMs actually wanting a two-state solution, that is not the case now. And obvioulsy Hezbollah/Hamas don't either. We're stuck in the worst case situation - the two players only agreeing on one thing: the goal is the elimination of the other.

In most situations, this would mean the 'adult' has to step in and separate the toddlers. But for whatever reason, the rest of the world isn't. It's vastly over-simplistic to just blame the US, but that seems the cool thing to do. But where is the EU? Where is the rest of the ME leadership?

The fastest off-ramp I can see is the removal of Netanyahu, but all that internal momentum has unfortuantely dried up.

There is solace in knowing there are others who share the 'no one stepped up to do the right thing' view, yep.

I love that we're still doing bothsidesism after the last 12 months and 75 years before them.

If you're referring to my post - I'd like to clarify that you're misreading it. I am of the clear view that Israel has used Oct 7 atrocities to unleash hell upon their neighbours, and the rest of the world is watching with their hands tied while thousands of innocents die everyday. This is genocide and war crimes from Netanyahu. I'm lamenting how violence begets violence and how we lacked a leader who had the intent and ability to truly de-escalate.

 

[VorZakone]

Wow.

 

[That_Bloke]

We'll see now how Hezbollah will respond.

They've taken a proper beating in the last week and Nasrallah was revered in the movement.

I doubt that restraint is on the cards.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

We'll see now how Hezbollah will respond.

They've taken a proper beating in the last week and Nasrallah was revered in the movement.

I doubt that restraint is on the cards.

I’m not sure what they can even muster up or do when their entire leadership has been killed in decapitation strikes.

 

[glazed]

I don't care about Gaza right now.

I'm trying to figure out why Berbatrick not on board with 2 state solution = genocide supporter

You obviously didn't see the post the mods deleted.

 

[africanspur]

You obviously didn't see the post the mods deleted.

The one from berbatrick saying he used to be in support of the 2 state solution and now not?

 

[That_Bloke]

I’m not sure what they can even muster up or do when their entire leadership has been killed in decapitation strikes.

I nver understood why people still think that these organizations function as a regular army and when you hit a commander, it's over. I'm certain that Hezbollah has contingency plans in place. It's not the first time it fought Israel and it's not like the latter's M.O. ever changed.

I'm personally certainly that Iran has been reigning them in at the moment. Nasrallah's death is above all symbolic, but Hezbollah can't allow this one to slide. It is going to retaliate and Israel is going to invade South Lebanon.

 

[Kaos]

I’m not sure what they can even muster up or do when their entire leadership has been killed in decapitation strikes.

Its more what Iran do or don't do. All eyes will be on them.

I just hope Iraq are kept well out of whatever retaliation they plan.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

I nver understood why people still think that these organizations function as a regular army and when you hit a commander, it's over. I'm certain that Hezbollah has contingency plans in place. It's not the first time it fought Israel and it's not like the latter's M.O. ever changed.

I'm personally certainly that Iran has been reigning them in at the moment. Nasrallah's death is above all symbolic, but Hezbollah can't allow this one slide. It is going to retaliate.

It’s not that it functions like a regular army at all.

Regular armies in the west have very decentralised structures, with an organic and experienced NCO and Commissioned leadership at every level. If the top 10 brass of the Us military got taken out in a war, the chain of command is incredibly well defined in a trust based system.

Hezbollah do not have that for many reasons, one of which is the fact that it’s a political entity as well as a military one. They lack an organic NCO corps with initiative driven into them.

And when actual “initiative” operation occurs there is punishment. Take for example earlier in the war, when Hezbollah fired rockets and then it turned out it was a small group who acted outside of orders and Hezbollah publically chided them.

In the western militaries, a captain can decide on tactical missions whenever. He can say “right we need to take that village” during a conflict and doesn’t need to run it up the chain of command. (He probably still should, but it’s also encouraged to use their own initiative in mission planning).

Hezbollah doesn’t not have an organic leadership structure from the ground up, it’s instead driven by top down decisions. There is no culture of initiative nor of ground based real time decisions. Ultimately there is no evidence that Hezbollah has any of the command structure, culture or competency intact in order to coordinate a real meaningful and strong response.

 

[Iker Quesadillas]

I nver understood why people still think that these organizations function as a regular army and when you hit a commander, it's over. I'm certain that Hezbollah has contingency plans in place. It's not the first time it fought Israel and it's not like the latter's M.O. ever changed.

I'm personally certainly that Iran has been reigning them in at the moment. Nasrallah's death is above all symbolic, but Hezbollah can't allow this one to slide. It is going to retaliate and Israel is going to invade South Lebanon.

I dunno man they look like they're getting their asses kicked left and right.

 

[That_Bloke]

It’s not that it functions like a regular army at all.

Regular armies in the west have very decentralised structures, with an organic and experienced NCO and Commissioned leadership at every level. If the top 10 brass of the Us military got taken out in a war, the chain of command is incredibly well defined in a trust based system.

Hezbollah do not have that for many reasons, one of which is the fact that it’s a political entity as well as a military one. They lack an organic NCO corps with initiative driven into them.

And when actual “initiative” operation occurs there is punishment. Take for example earlier in the war, when Hezbollah fired rockets and then it turned out it was a small group who acted outside of orders and Hezbollah publically chided them.

In the western militaries, a captain can decide on tactical missions whenever. He can say “right we need to take that village” during a conflict and doesn’t need to run it up the chain of command. (He probably still should, but it’s also encouraged to use their own initiative in mission planning).

Hezbollah doesn’t not have an organic leadership structure from the ground up, it’s instead driven by top down decisions. There is no culture of initiative nor of ground based real time decisions. Ultimately there is no evidence that Hezbollah has any of the command structure, culture or competency intact in order to coordinate a real meaningful and strong response.

All fair points.

We'll see how Hezbollah will react and how Israel's ground invasion will turn out.

I dunno man they look like they're getting their asses kicked left and right.

That they indeed are.

 

[Revan]

This was quite fast. Basically Hezbollah in their knees before it even begin.

I wonder what Iran will do. Their strategy of having powerful proxies over the entire region to secure their regime survival has completely failed. They either need to find a peaceful settlement with Israel, which the current theocracy won’t, or need to build a few nukes as soon as possible. At this stage, I think everyone knows that Iran’s regime only way is to get nukes, which is why I fully expect Israel to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities within the next couple of months. And if I was Ali Khamenei, I would be really worried about my life.

I wonder what are the chances of Iran to get some Russian protection in the form of Russia sending a few dozen nukes in Iran?

 

[Spark]

This was quite fast. Basically Hezbollah in their knees before it even begin.

I wonder what Iran will do. Their strategy of having powerful proxies over the entire region to secure their regime survival has completely failed. They either need to find a peaceful settlement with Israel, which the current theocracy won’t, or need to build a few nukes as soon as possible. At this stage, I think everyone knows that Iran’s regime only way is to get nukes, which is why I fully expect Israel to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities within the next couple of months. And if I was Ali Khamenei, I would be really worried about my life.

I wonder what are the chances of Iran to get some Russian protection in the form of Russia sending a few dozen nukes in Iran?

You’re talking Cuban missile crisis with that Russia move. There aren’t any open nukes in the middle east (Israel obviously has them).

I think the most likely outcome is that nothing really happens between Israel and Iran, Iran quietly shores up its own defences and hopes the Israelis don’t actually attack - because Iran is fecked if they do.

I think we’ll see a lot of Iranian shipments to Russia cease though.

 

[africanspur]

We'll see now how Hezbollah will respond.

They've taken a proper beating in the last week and Nasrallah was revered in the movement.

I doubt that restraint is on the cards.

Not sure what they can really do here.

Almost their entire senior leadership has been eradicated. Hundreds of their fighters maimed. Their communications in disarray. From the above, it seems likely that Mossad have infiltrated Hezbollah at multiple levels.

Seemingly everyone has spent the whole year (including me) saying Hezbollah is better armed, prepared and sophisticated than Hamas. And yet somehow Hamas have appeared more competent militarily here.

I wish no attack had happened on any side but from a military pov, Hezbollahs tactic struck me as odd even from early on. You either stay out of it completely (especially with a country like Israel) or you go all in to actually open up 2 genuine fronts, not this bs 7 fronts. They've gone for this weird in between and now Israel have (mostly) dealt with Hamas and are turning their full attention to Hezbollah.

 

[Revan]

You’re talking Cuban missile crisis with that Russia move. There aren’t any open nukes in the middle east (Israel obviously has them).

I think the most likely outcome is that nothing really happens between Israel and Iran, Iran quietly shores up its own defences and hopes the Israelis don’t actually attack - because Iran is fecked if they do.

I think we’ll see a lot of Iranian shipments to Russia cease though.

Precisely, a Cuban missile crisis which should give Iran some time, and could be used as a concession from Russia in exchange of the West lowering their support for Ukraine.

I do not see how Israel-Iran does not further escalate. For the last couple of decades Iran has built a powerful shield out of their proxies that makes an Israel attack in Iran very costly. And one of their proxies is basically annihilated while the most powerful proxy they have is destroyed before the war even began. Iran’s strategy has miserably failed, and Israel is winning big time which is why I fully expect them to attack Teheran and Iran’s nuclear facilities quite shortly.

 

[glazed]

Seemingly everyone has spent the whole year (including me) saying Hezbollah is better armed, prepared and sophisticated than Hamas. And yet somehow Hamas have appeared more competent militarily here.

While Israel has shown breathtaking tactical superiority, I don't see much of a long term strategy here other than burnishing Netanyahu's hard man credentials . Seems likely Hezbollah will reconstitute and you're back at square one. You can't kill an idea. So long as Iran is playing its game, there won't be long term peace in the region. And toppling Iran from outside is not possible militarily (unless the US gets involved).

 

[Raoul]

This was quite fast. Basically Hezbollah in their knees before it even begin.

I wonder what Iran will do. Their strategy of having powerful proxies over the entire region to secure their regime survival has completely failed. They either need to find a peaceful settlement with Israel, which the current theocracy won’t, or need to build a few nukes as soon as possible. At this stage, I think everyone knows that Iran’s regime only way is to get nukes, which is why I fully expect Israel to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities within the next couple of months. And if I was Ali Khamenei, I would be really worried about my life.

I wonder what are the chances of Iran to get some Russian protection in the form of Russia sending a few dozen nukes in Iran?

It will probably get a bit dicey for Khamenei in the coming months with two of his anti-Israel proxies on the ropes. He himself is 85 and ruling over a country that is increasingly wanting more freedoms that will never happen under a theocratic dictatorship. Something will snap at some point soon.

 

[That_Bloke]

Not sure what they can really do here.

Almost their entire senior leadership has been eradicated. Hundreds of their fighters maimed. Their communications in disarray. From the above, it seems likely that Mossad have infiltrated Hezbollah at multiple levels.

Seemingly everyone has spent the whole year (including me) saying Hezbollah is better armed, prepared and sophisticated than Hamas. And yet somehow Hamas have appeared more competent militarily here.

I wish no attack had happened on any side but from a military pov, Hezbollahs tactic struck me as odd even from early on. You either stay out of it completely (especially with a country like Israel) or you go all in to actually open up 2 genuine fronts, not this bs 7 fronts. They've gone for this weird in between and now Israel have (mostly) dealt with Hamas and are turning their full attention to Hezbollah.

I think in retrospect that Iran should've immediately retaliated in the weeks following Haniyeh's assassination. Netanyahu is not someone who can be reasoned with and so is its country. Force is the only language they understand.

By choosing appeasement, they fecked themselves and Hezbollah over, as it was clear that Israel was hell bent on attacking Lebanon, expanding the war and drag Iran into it, since this current US administration will back them no matter what (and the next one, whoever gets elected, will do exactly the same).

I mean Israeli officials were openly saying it for months and everyone knew what was coming. Now Hezbollah is badly hurt and Iran's confronted to two choices: either come to its rescue, assuming it's not too late, make a stand and risk an open war. Or abandon Hezbollah, lose any kind of credibility and influence in the region, and see all their deterrence strategy crumble like a sand castle, which will leave them completely exposed to the next strike that will inevitably come.

Israel is not going to stop, the US and the international community are making sure of that. There are also many in the US who crave a war against Iran. The latter has to do something or it is doomed. They are the next in line, it's only a matter of time.

 

[glazed]

It will probably get a bit dicey for Khamenei in the coming months with two of his anti-Israel proxies on the ropes. He himself is 85 and ruling over a country that is increasingly wanting more freedoms that will never happen under a theocratic dictatorship. Something will snap at some point soon.

Iran is under colossal internal economic pressure because of drought, water shortages and climate change. It's hard to see how that will translate into politics but it certainly will.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

I think in retrospect that Iran should've immediately retaliated in the weeks following Haniyeh's assassination. Netanyahu is not someone who can be reasoned with.

By choosing appeasement, they fecked themselves and Hezbollah over, as it was clear that Israel was hell bent on attacking Lebanon, expanding the war and drag Iran into it, since this current US administration will back them no matter what (and the next one, whoever gets elected, will do exactly the same).

I mean Israeli officials were openly saying it for months and everyone knew what was coming. Now Hezbollah is badly hurt and Iran's confronted to two choices: either come to its rescue, assuming it's not too late, make a stand and risk an open war. Or abandon Hezbollah, lose any kind of credibility in the region and see all their deterrence strategy crumble like a sand castle which will leave them completely exposed to the next strike that will inevitably come.

Israel is not going to stop, the US and the international community are making sure of that. There are also many in the US who crave a war against Iran. The latter has to do something or it is doomed.

I'm also not sure what Iran can do here though: Their power projection came in the form of silently transferring weapons to their proxies:

This is not really an option with Hezbollah anymore because they already have a huge stockpile but it seems completely ineffective for multiple reasons.

 

[NicolaSacco]

I'm also not sure what Iran can do here though: Their power projection came in the form of silently transferring weapons to their proxies:

This is not really an option with Hezbollah anymore because they already have a huge stockpile but it seems completely ineffective for multiple reasons.

Does Iran necessarily need to respond via Hizbollah though? I wouldn’t be surprised to see the West in general (rather than Israel in particular) being targeted. They can (theoretically) shut down international shipping routes whenever they want.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

Does Iran necessarily need to respond via Hizbollah though? I wouldn’t be surprised to see the West in general (rather than Israel in particular) being targeted. They can (theoretically) shut down international shipping routes whenever they want.

How do you think an Iranian fight with the 5th Fleet would go?

Their naval strategy is swarm any carrier strike groups with small missile boats, which is likely to end about as well as one could imagine.

 

[VorZakone]

 

[FriedClams]

Definitely a weird undertone in this thread where some people seem to want it all to escalate because it doesn’t really affect them

 

[Nogbadthebad]

How do you think an Iranian fight with the 5th Fleet would go?

Their naval strategy is swarm any carrier strike groups with small missile boats, which is likely to end about as well as one could imagine.

If Iran have hypersonic missiles as claimed, it would go very badly for the 5th fleet.

 

[NicolaSacco]

How do you think an Iranian fight with the 5th Fleet would go?

Their naval strategy is swarm any carrier strike groups with small missile boats, which is likely to end about as well as one could imagine.

That’s why I said ‘theoretically’. I do t expect them to do it, I just don’t feel that they are powerless either.

 

[Semper Fudge]

While Israel has shown breathtaking tactical superiority, I don't see much of a long term strategy here other than burnishing Netanyahu's hard man credentials . Seems likely Hezbollah will reconstitute and you're back at square one. You can't kill an idea. So long as Iran is playing its game, there won't be long term peace in the region. And toppling Iran from outside is not possible militarily (unless the US gets involved).

Good lord, put it away. It’s disgusting.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

If Iran have hypersonic missiles as claimed, it would go very badly for the 5th fleet.

Do you even know what a hypersonic missile is?

 

[Fergies Gum]

Good lord, put it away. It’s disgusting.

He is right through. Hezbollah spent billions on weaponry and not once did it occur to them to have protections in place to cover Lebanon's airspace. Literally as we speak Israeli jets are in Lebanon's airspace and there is nothing Lebanon/Hezbollah can do about it as they have no credible air force.

 

[glazed]

Good lord, put it away. It’s disgusting.

Yeah it's a massive humiliation for the terrorists but I'm not sure how much it means in the long term. Israel drove the PLO out of Lebanon and it achieved not much.

 

[Revan]

He is right through. Hezbollah spent billions on weaponry and not once did it occur to them to have protections in place to cover Lebanon's airspace. Literally as we speak Israeli jets are in Lebanon's airspace and there is nothing Lebanon/Hezbollah can do about it as they have no credible air force.

What air defense that Hezbollah could have purchased would have been able to do anything against F35s?

 

[glazed]

What air defense that Hezbollah could have purchased would have been able to do anything against F35s?

Presumably the assumption is that if you start a war against a tactically superior foe then you know that getting killed is part of the deal. Doesn't end the war by any stretch.

What's interesting (and tragic) is that Hamas and Hezbollah have both used civilians as shields against air attacks, perhaps thinking that it will make Israelis think twice. It doesn't seem to have made any difference.

 

[Nogbadthebad]

Do you even know what a hypersonic missile is?

Yes.

Missles that travel faster than mach 5, that tests and simulations show can be too fast for current defense systems to respond to.

That is why the UK is spending billions developing our own.

So far, only Russia has actually deployed them, China has working examples and Iran supposedly has the Fattah-2, likely based of russian tech.

If they do have them, the most vulnerable targets are large ships, specifically carriers. As I said, whether Iran really does have functional weapons is something to question.

 

[Nogbadthebad]

What's interesting (and tragic) is that Hamas and Hezbollah have both used civilians as shields against air attacks, perhaps thinking that it will make Israelis think twice. It doesn't seem to have made any difference.

If someone blows up the mossad HQ and IDF central command, both situated in the heart of tel Aviv and almost guaranteed to result in 4 figure civilian casualites, would you be excusing it as israel using human shields?

 

[AfonsoAlves]

Yes.

Missles that travel faster than mach 5, that tests and simulations show can be too fast for current defense systems to respond to.

That is why the UK is spending billions developing our own.

So far, only Russia has actually deployed them, China has working examples and Iran supposedly has the Fattah-2, likely based of russian tech.

If they do have them, the most vulnerable targets are large ships, specifically carriers. As I said, whether Iran really does have functional weapons is something to question.

There's two meanings for hypersonics:

A) What you described, which have been around for decades and decades, and the last part of your sentence is bullshit.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Burnt_Frost

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releas...-iia-intercept-test-against-an-intercontinen/

SM-3, SM-6 and THAAD were all designed with hypersonic ballistic missiles in mind. By your definition, most ballistic missiles are hypersonic and even patriot pac-1's in the gulf war, designed to intercept anything BUT ballistic missiles, could intercept them. SCUDs were by your definition hypersonic.

So no, it's not too fast for all defense systems to intercept. It's the other way around. A ballistic trajectory mach 5 missiles is a sitting duck for the layered CSG air defense of SM-2, SM-3, SM-6 and ESSM.


B) What people actually mean when they say hypersonic: Is an air breathing scramjet Cruise missile capable of going Mach 5+ at Sea level and have high levels of interchangibility in movement and trajectory.

This is actually a game changer because radar curvature means it's harder to detect, with a much lower response time, and ultimately harder to intercept with ground based VLS / Batteries.

Nobody has this in service. US has a working prototype. Nobody else comes close to developing this.



Now, let's imagine Iran has the magical Mach 5 Hypersonic missiles that for some reason is "too fast" for a Strike Group Missile Shield to intercept: Pray tell how it even locks on to the carrier?

The kill chain for anti ship missiles is incredibly complex, and trying to guide a missile to a carrier in the open ocean is like looking for a 5p coin in an olympic swimming pool by looking through a straw and then sucking up the 5p with said straw.

US has invested billions into ISR assets and redundancies on top of redundancies on their kill chains, with Link 4 integrations, huge numbers of AWACS assets, gigantic multi Kw powered AESA radars, Satalitte imagery integrations, just to provide a stable kill chain for their navy. Each piece missing would highly reduce the effectiveness of their missiles.

Iran has none of that. So pray tell how an Iranian Mach 5 even gets a weapon-level constant firing solution on a moving CSG in the Persian gulf.

Tl;dr stop talking shit.

I bet he's going to link an article by Pierre sprey or the National Interest to support his argument. The two worst sources in mankind on military affairs.

 

[glazed]

If someone blows up the mossad HQ and IDF central command, both situated in the heart of tel Aviv and almost guaranteed to result in 4 figure civilian casualites, would you be excusing it as israel using human shields?

It's just part of war in that part of the world. I would be sad for the civilians just as I'm sad for the civilians in Gaza and Lebanon. I'm not really interested in excusing or not excusing. Israel put their civilians at risk by doing this but not to the extent or anything like it that Hamas and Hezbollah have. What I'm interested in is a lasting stable peace in the region.

 

[berbatrick]

Something beginning with G?

To be fair there is no chance of a two state solution in the foreseeable future. All sides need to choose leaders who are not so extreme and that's not on the cards.

I think Jewish people who were born there have a right to live there because no one chooses the circumstances of their birth. I think Palestinians have a right to return to their native land, because the cleansings have been in pretty recent memory by an extant state. I think the only way this can happen is with a single state or a significant reduction in Israel's (undeclared) borders. I am 100% sure none of this will happen. In the meantime, I support anything the Palestinians do to try and change the status quo.