Israel - Iran and regional players | Please post respectfully and stay on topic

There's two meanings for hypersonics:

A) What you described, which have been around for decades and decades, and the last part of your sentence is bullshit.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Burnt_Frost

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releas...-iia-intercept-test-against-an-intercontinen/

SM-3, SM-6 and THAAD were all designed with hypersonic ballistic missiles in mind. By your definition, most ballistic missiles are hypersonic and even patriot pac-1's in the gulf war, designed to intercept anything BUT ballistic missiles, could intercept them. SCUDs were by your definition hypersonic.

So no, it's not too fast for all defense systems to intercept. It's the other way around. A ballistic trajectory mach 5 missiles is a sitting duck for the layered CSG air defense of SM-2, SM-3, SM-6 and ESSM.


B) What people actually mean when they say hypersonic: Is an air breathing scramjet Cruise missile capable of going Mach 5+ at Sea level and have high levels of interchangibility in movement and trajectory.

This is actually a game changer because radar curvature means it's harder to detect, with a much lower response time, and ultimately harder to intercept with ground based VLS / Batteries.

Nobody has this in service. US has a working prototype. Nobody else comes close to developing this.



Now, let's imagine Iran has the magical Mach 5 Hypersonic missiles that for some reason is "too fast" for a Strike Group Missile Shield to intercept: Pray tell how it even locks on to the carrier?

The kill chain for anti ship missiles is incredibly complex, and trying to guide a missile to a carrier in the open ocean is like looking for a 5p coin in an olympic swimming pool by looking through a straw and then sucking up the 5p with said straw.

US has invested billions into ISR assets and redundancies on top of redundancies on their kill chains, with Link 4 integrations, huge numbers of AWACS assets, gigantic multi Kw powered AESA radars, Satalitte imagery integrations, just to provide a stable kill chain for their navy. Each piece missing would highly reduce the effectiveness of their missiles.

Iran has none of that. So pray tell how an Iranian Mach 5 even gets a weapon-level constant firing solution on a moving CSG in the Persian gulf.

Tl;dr stop talking shit.

I bet he's going to link an article by Pierre sprey or the National Interest to support his argument. The two worst sources in mankind on military affairs.

Have you ever thought about adjusting your style of delivery to actually get complicated ideas across to people who don’t have your knowledge base? Feels like you take a little too much pleasure in telling people they are wrong.
 
Have you ever thought about adjusting your style of delivery to actually get complicated ideas across to people who don’t have your knowledge base? Feels like you take a little too much pleasure in telling people they are wrong.
To be fair, allknowist experts in this forum are quite often very wrong but post with such a confidence. He is just calling their bullshit for what it is.
 
To be fair, allknowist experts in this forum are quite often very wrong but post with such a confidence. He is just calling their bullshit for what it is.

Yeah it's this.

It's the absolute confidence that was irking me.
 
To be fair, allknowist experts in this forum are quite often very wrong but post with such a confidence. He is just calling their bullshit for what it is.

I know, and I acknowledge I know nothing about the poster he’s replying to. But there are ways to correct an error, and there are ways to try to make people feel as small as possible.
 
no it can’t be that, that can only be reserved for a certain group of people who were in a very specific area for a short period of time for a specific time period. People who were there before, after and during the same specific period are ethnic cleansing genocidal western colonisers who must go back to where they came from*

*where they came from to be determined at a later date

:lol:

olHdh2G.png
 
I think Jewish people who were born there have a right to live there because no one chooses the circumstances of their birth. I think Palestinians have a right to return to their native land, because the cleansings have been in pretty recent memory by an extant state. I think the only way this can happen is with a single state or a significant reduction in Israel's (undeclared) borders. I am 100% sure none of this will happen. In the meantime, I support anything the Palestinians do to try and change the status quo.
You are correct that none of this will happen. Where would you put the Israeli border as a matter of interest? And how would Israel secure its existence as a Jewish state if such a right of return were granted?
 
You are correct that none of this will happen. Where would you put the Israeli border as a matter of interest? And how would Israel secure its existence as a Jewish state if such a right of return were granted?

Why does there need to be an existence of a 'Jewish' state?

You can have a country that has a high % population of Jews, where Jews can prosper and are treated fair and equal and have a lot of say in politics and culture and economics.

Why does it has to become a dominant Jewish Ethnostate?
 
You are correct that none of this will happen. Where would you put the Israeli border as a matter of interest? And how would Israel secure its existence as a Jewish state if such a right of return were granted?

i have no idea where the lines will be. i don't think ethno-supermacist states have an inherent right to exist, i think people have a right to life.
 
Why does there need to be an existence of a 'Jewish' state?

i have no idea where the lines will be. i don't think ethno-supermacist states have an inherent right to exist, i think people have a right to life.

Because the founding tenet of Zionism (which you will disagree with but there is no getting around it) is that Jews are only safe when they can rule their own affairs. Being second class citizens in a predominantly arab country is not going to cut it with the Israelis, and if you think that would end in anything but a bloodbath you're dreaming. But of course you do know that. Hamas is not a branch of the libdems.

It's worth adding that Israel is not an ethnostate - it is, uniquely in the middle east, full of people of all religions who have democratic rights. The people who have no rights are those in the occupied territories and in neighboring aggressive regimes.
 
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Why does there need to be an existence of a 'Jewish' state?

You can have a country that has a high % population of Jews, where Jews can prosper and are treated fair and equal and have a lot of say in politics and culture and economics.

Why does it has to become a dominant Jewish Ethnostate?
This is one of the biggest fears of Israelis regarding a one state solution: demographics. They fear that they wouldn't be a majority anymore if they shared a state with Palestinians because of demographic trends.
 


194 women and 104 children have been killed in Lebanon.
 
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Because the founding tenet of Zionism (which you will disagree with but there is no getting around it) is that Jews are only safe when they can rule their own affairs. Being second class citizens in a predominantly arab country is not going to cut it with the Israelis, and if you think that would end in anything but a bloodbath you're dreaming. But of course you do know that. Hamas is not a branch of the libdems.

It's worth adding that Israel is not an ethnostate - it is, uniquely in the middle east, full of people of all religions who have democratic rights. The people who have no rights are those in the occupied territories and in neighboring aggressive regimes.

On your last para, a few points:
I think Palestine is the in middle east, and Palestinian Christians have the same rights as Palestinian Muslims (the right to be violated and killed by israel). There are multiple reports about Israeli apartheid, and these reports include the second class treatment of Palestinian citizens of Israel. Finally, "Israel is not a state of all its citizens, it is a nation-state of Jews and only Jews".

Yes I know a little bit about Zionist beliefs. As I said before, part of the reason my views about Israel changed was by reading the views of Jabotinsky and Moshe Dayan, and of current Israelis.

About bloodbaths, well, one is happening right now. As it happened in 1948. Since I don't value Jewish rights above non-Jewish rights , I don't agree with committing genocide to prevent a potential future genocide. Worth noting that the official stance of the banned Palestinian militant group (1967 border 2-state) is more conciliatory than the official stance of the elected Israeli govt and its left-wing opposition (no Palestinian state).
 
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There's two meanings for hypersonics:

A) What you described, which have been around for decades and decades, and the last part of your sentence is bullshit.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Burnt_Frost

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releas...-iia-intercept-test-against-an-intercontinen/

SM-3, SM-6 and THAAD were all designed with hypersonic ballistic missiles in mind. By your definition, most ballistic missiles are hypersonic and even patriot pac-1's in the gulf war, designed to intercept anything BUT ballistic missiles, could intercept them. SCUDs were by your definition hypersonic.

So no, it's not too fast for all defense systems to intercept. It's the other way around. A ballistic trajectory mach 5 missiles is a sitting duck for the layered CSG air defense of SM-2, SM-3, SM-6 and ESSM.


B) What people actually mean when they say hypersonic: Is an air breathing scramjet Cruise missile capable of going Mach 5+ at Sea level and have high levels of interchangibility in movement and trajectory.

This is actually a game changer because radar curvature means it's harder to detect, with a much lower response time, and ultimately harder to intercept with ground based VLS / Batteries.

Nobody has this in service. US has a working prototype. Nobody else comes close to developing this.



Now, let's imagine Iran has the magical Mach 5 Hypersonic missiles that for some reason is "too fast" for a Strike Group Missile Shield to intercept: Pray tell how it even locks on to the carrier?

The kill chain for anti ship missiles is incredibly complex, and trying to guide a missile to a carrier in the open ocean is like looking for a 5p coin in an olympic swimming pool by looking through a straw and then sucking up the 5p with said straw.

US has invested billions into ISR assets and redundancies on top of redundancies on their kill chains, with Link 4 integrations, huge numbers of AWACS assets, gigantic multi Kw powered AESA radars, Satalitte imagery integrations, just to provide a stable kill chain for their navy. Each piece missing would highly reduce the effectiveness of their missiles.

Iran has none of that. So pray tell how an Iranian Mach 5 even gets a weapon-level constant firing solution on a moving CSG in the Persian gulf.

Tl;dr stop talking shit.

I bet he's going to link an article by Pierre sprey or the National Interest to support his argument. The two worst sources in mankind on military affairs.

The very definition of pearls before swine :lol:

My knowledge of military tactics and weapons solely comes from the C&C franchise, so I don't know how to process this information.
 
On your last para, a few points:
I think Palestine is the in middle east, and Palestinian Christians have the same rights as Palestinian Muslims (the right to be violated and killed by israel). There are multiple reports about Israeli apartheid, and these reports include the second class treatment of Palestinian citizens of Israel. Finally, "Israel is not a state of all its citizens, it is a nation-state of Jews and only Jews".
You're quoting Netanyahu who certainly represents the worst of Israel. 75 years of war has made for extremism on both sides. There's no arguing with that. But both sides is the key point. There's little point pretending he exists in a vacuum and Hamas and Hezbollah and Tehran are reasonable interlocutors. They are religious extremists with their own agendas. Hezbollah was happy to throw Hamas under the bus, and Tehran will now throw Hezbollah under the bus too.

Let's not forget Israeli arabs have more rights than Gazan Jews. Whataboutery is pointless. It's a violent and barbaric part of the world and judging it by our own standards is to fall into the trap of occidentalism.

Edit: And I've been thread banned again so I guess this will be the last I contribute to this particular forum.
 
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You're quoting Netanyahu who certainly represents the worst of Israel. 75 years of war has made for extremism on both sides. There's no arguing with that. But both sides is the key point. There's little point pretending he exists in a vacuum and Hamas and Hezbollah and Tehran are reasonable interlocutors. They are religious extremists with their own agendas. Hezbollah was happy to throw Hamas under the bus, and Tehran will now throw Hezbollah under the bus too.

He has been elected PM 5 times - you helpfully mentioned Israel's democratic character. He was speaking after the passage of a law that defined the character of Israel, passed by a majority vote of a democratically elected body. He was accurately describing the contents of that law. That law will not be repealed by whoever Israelis choose as their next PM, likely Bibi himself.

I also don't think he's the worst of Israel. Apart from obvious current examples like Ben Gvir and Smotrich, I think his thoughts on Palestinians and security are in line with historic and current Israeli leaders. I've quoted Jabotinsky on this forum about 500 times, so this time I'll quote Moshe Dayan:

Bw7anh0.png


To paraphrase: "we killed them, they want revenge for that, so we should be ready to kill them again". That is the required attitude of any settler colony. The only reason American attitudes towards natives are slightly different is because their genocide is successful and complete. That is why I post in support of Palestine and Palestinians fighting this barbarism, whatever means they choose, so that in 50 years they don't become a land acknowledgement for 5% of Israelis.

You then immediately started talking about infighting between Tehran, Hezbollah, Hamas, which I don't see the relevance of, and, to quote yourself, probably "represent the worst of Palestine."
 
Another perspective: an Iran that calculates that its proxies are not good enough as a deterrent might genuinely consider to go nuclear.



With that perspective we should consider that Iran has nuclear capabilities and i doubt they do. The only way would be that russia gave some nuclear heads with the Ukraine war arm exchange.

The second piece would be how to use it. And very fortunately, iran doesnt have the capabilities bc i assume Israel or US in the area would shut down any missile of this characteristic. (@AfonsoAlves correct me if so) and any operation would probably known by Mossad as it seems their are deeply embeded). Hope that is the case because the innocents killed would be irreparable and would show the egotistical solution as no palestinian no jew no no one would be able to live there for decades.

The only think that it translate on this tweet is that an animal, when cornered is very dangerous and iran might be able to inflict some pain and as always, some innocent people will pay the price.

Hopefully this pressure can ve used to overthrow the Iranian regime, stop israel excuses and western nations stops the genocide after the US elections. One can dream i guess
 
I'm also not sure what Iran can do here though: Their power projection came in the form of silently transferring weapons to their proxies:

This is not really an option with Hezbollah anymore because they already have a huge stockpile but it seems completely ineffective for multiple reasons.
That's their the first and most important line of defense. Iran should never have let it get breached that badly, because after that it's turkey shoot. Nasrallah's assassination would've never been carried out without the green light of the US.

I personally just can't see Iran not responding to this major escalation because its very survival is at play. They are fecked if they do and fecked if they don't, so might as well do something.

In what form I do not pretend to know, but I think that if Iran sells Hezbollah down the drain, it will be directly attacked in the next few months and completely done. Not only as a major player in the region but also as a country.
 
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That's their the first and most important line of defense. Iran should never have let it get breached that badly, because after that, it's turkey shoot.

I personally just can't see Iran not responding to this major escalation because its very survival is at play. Fecked if they do, fecked if they don't.

In what form I do not pretend to know, but I think that if Iran sells Hezbollah down the drain, it will be directly attacked in the next few months and completely done. Not only as a major player in the region but also as a country.

I think Iran will not respond because it cant effectlively

So they are fecked yes or yes and it depends on israel on how fecked they are
 
If you ever had any doubt on where Biden and his administration stand and why the region is going to shit, here's a few snippets:

"His death [Nasrallah's] due to an Israeli airstrike is a measure of justice for his many victims, among which thousands of american (lul), israeli and lebanese civilians".

"The US fully supports Israel's right to defend itself against Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis and any other terrrorist group supported by Iran".

The US objective is to defuse the current "conflicts" in Gaza and Lebanon through diplomatic means".
 
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More notably, Syria hasn’t merely avoided confrontation with Israel; its silence has been conspicuous. The regime has also softened its rhetoric during the conflict, refraining from issuing the usual statements of support to Hezbollah or Iran after major attacks. As some Syrians have noted on social media, Syrian television continued broadcasting songs and normal programming following Israel’s attacks, including after the killing of top Hezbollah leaders.

 
Escalate to de-escalate. Lovely.
Biden always was a racist piece of shit.

Now he's a senile, racist piece of shit which makes him even more dangerous. No other US administration in History has ever been more pro-Israel than his, not even Trump's. I fear what might happen until he finally fecks off from the WH.

For Israel and Netanyahu, now is the chance of a lifetime.
 
Now he's a senile, racist piece of shit which makes him even more dangerous.
In the early months of this conflict, the saavy take here was that Biden's actions were pragmatic and logical. Grimly funny since we know now they were the actions of a man in rapid cognitive decline.
 
"What we found after over 11 months is that Nasrallah is persistent in tying himself — and the hijacked Lebanese state that he took over — to whatever’s going on in Gaza," the official said. "He declined every diplomatic effort. He declined messages to stop connecting himself to Gaza. And he continued to fire at Israel, and in the past few weeks or months, even expanded the range and velocity of attacks against Israel."
 
Posted this in the wrong thread as I was rushing to get to work.

Cards on the table...... I'd be curious to hear any honest answers from anyone here supporting Israel, or at least defending a lot of or all of their actions....

Where and when do you think this will stop?

What do you think Netanyahu's actual aim is?

Do the means justify the ends? Are all the innocents fair game, acceptable collateral damage?

Can you explain why Christian towns are being hit in Lebanon?

Do you believe any war crimes have been committed by Israel?

Do you sympathise at all with Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, and do you accept any reasons why people are siding with them? (That doesn't make them terrorist sympathisers or antisemites btw)

What's his end game? And how much of it is his quest to retain power and keep himself out of prison? Or do you not think that's a factor at all?




I doubt I will get a reply, but if I do I can guess some replies. I'm just curious and also live in hope.
 
In the early months of this conflict, the saavy take here was that Biden's actions were pragmatic and logical. Grimly funny since we know now they were the actions of a man in rapid cognitive decline.
Cognitive decline has very little to do with his convictions, he knew what he was doing.

Biden is a hardcore zionist and now a genocide enabler and a war criminal. Just like Netanyahu, although he will most likely escape any form of justice.

I was one of those who thought he handled the 10/7 tragedy really well, given the historic US position in the Middle-East. How silly of me.

Now all I can remember is his dumb, smug face when he was talking about being confident in reaching a cease-fire, licking his ice cream while Gazans were dying in the hundreds per day and starving to death. That was in last March.

May he choke on his next one and burn in hell, if there is one.
 
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