I’m writing as a half-Iranian, with the majority of my family in Iran. Trust me, no one wants Israel to bomb them - I am fully against the endless war crimes of Israel, but there are literal celebrations going on across swathes of Iranians at the news that the butcher Nasrallah has been killed.
My point about Israeli strikes isn’t that Iranians will welcome them, but that they’ll pose a significant threat to the already deeply unstable Iranian regime. Israel won’t invade Iran - it can’t, way too big and far away. In the event of airstrikes on civilian centres (which I can’t see happening) I guarantee you won’t see the Iranian population rally round and back the regime.
Very true.
Also true, but it has the means of inflicting enormous damage, with the unconditional backing of the US, to which the Iran-Iraq war will pale in comparison. You've already seen what they've done to Gaza and Lebanon.
The regime has been killing them daily for 40 years and that cannot be underestimated. Everyone who backs the regime has already signed up - e.g. the Basij, IRGC and some others.
I am not underestimating it and fully aware of how much resentment the Iranian regime can generate (I was born under a dictatorship and grew up in a civil war). I've stated many times in this thread, that I loathe the current Iranian regime, but that's a problem that should be solved internally.
I also think that Israel doesn’t want the regime to fall, because it’s the “threat” of Iran that has allowed them to leverage the west/US for billions in aid since 1979. They need them to remain in a superficially credible form, as the opportunity cost is billions upon billions of foreign investment going towards a pro-Western Iran. None of the Gulf States or Israel want that.
That ship has sailed a long time ago.
It was valid when Israel was a bit fragile on its feet and the big Arab countries (Egypt and Iraq) still could pose a threat. That is not the case anymore since 1991. Syria's also been dealt with.
There also was a time where the US administration's pull was somewhat worth something, and there still was the semblance of an international community. It is not the case anymore. Now Israel will always get its yearly allowance and any help necessary from the US no matter what.
And no matter who gets elected next in the US, Israel has four years of absolute freedom and is dead set on ruining your day. They will not miss this chance and some of the Sunni Arab countries in the region, especially Saudi Arabia under MBS, will gladly give a helping hand.
By destroying Iran, the last hurdle falls and Israel, and the US by extension, gets free reign to do whatever it wants in the region. For decades. Israel never officially declared its borders for a reason.
So yeah, feck Israel and feck the Islamic Republic. Hopefully they both lose. (And to be honest, if Iran becomes a rump state backed by the US it’ll mean the end of sanctions, foreign investment flowing in and potentially a reverse to the brain-drain the country has experienced since 1979. Even half of that is better than what exists today.)
Absolutely, but Israel is not about to lose, Iran is.
The US and Israel hate your living guts and want to see you gone. You just don't understand how much of a threat your whole country (not only the regime) represents for them.
They will wreck Iran and make sure that your head is constantly in the mud, letting you breathe when you're about to choke only to put it under when you grasped that little breath of air. They will use any means necessary to fuel internal divisions (and you have quite a few) and prevent you from ever becoming a functioning state, let alone a major regional power.
If you think that the current sanctions are bad and they are really bad, just wait once they tear Iran apart.
There's a short fable from the 17th century, written by the great French poet De La Fontaine and called "The Gardener and His Lord", which is still actual and well worth the read.
It ends with the following warning:
"Little princes, settle your own quarrels amongst yourselves. It is madness to have recourse to kings. You should never let them engage in your wars, nor even enter your domains".
