Gio
★★★★★★★★
I think there are two aspects to this. One - the draw, which is outwith the gift of any of these managers to influence, and two - is he under or overachieving?Been watching England since WC 98. England is better/progressed further under Southgate than they were under
Hoddle
Eriksson
Capello
Hodgson
Who else I'm forgetting.
And this with arguably both lesser players factually and lesser hyped players. He has to be doing something right. My guess is he has got the players working together and curtailed egos very well. Not afraid of opponents but seldom overconfident either.
In 1998 Hoddle lost on penalties to a strong Argentina. Eriksson went out to Brazil in 2002 and Portugal in 2006. Capello lost to Germany in 2010. What we’ve seen from England in tournaments under Southgate is that they are good enough to beat Denmark / an average Germany, but fall short against Croatia/ Italy/ Belgium. I don’t think anything in those results suggest Southgate would have got the better of 98 Argentina, 02 Brazil or 06 Portugal. Certainly Capello and Hodgson didn't make more than the sum of the parts of their teams, while Eriksson and Hoddle did okay relative to the players at their disposal and the draw that was imposed upon them.
All of that said if we judge managers on making more than the sum of their parts, then Southgate started off well but, as the talent pool has improved, it is now becoming harder to justify he is making the most of the players at his disposal. With a more limited squad, Southgate did fine in 2018 and okay in 2021, falling short in the final against a cohesive and synergistic side that was very clearly more than the sum of its parts. The problem that was apparent in the Croatia and Italy games though is that he resorted to rudimentary tactics which were found out. Against Croatia that was basically playing long balls behind their defence every time and versus Italy it was hang on and hope for the best. That inability to control games against proper opposition is all the more damning when there are a number of players on the bench who are central to doing just that for their dominant clubs.
His whole legacy is going to hang on the likely quarter final against France. It would be the first time he has defeated stronger opposition in a tournament. He probably still saves face if they get outgunned by a piece of brilliance from Mbappe - but only provided England have tried to make the best use of the players at their disposal. But if his exit follows the same pattern as Croatia and Italy - and there were signs of this against the US - then I think he has to hold his hands up and concede he's not been able to evolve in the same way his squad has improved.