India politics thread

Sad state we are in. I can’t even blame the uneducated or semi educated (most of the country) lot who are consumed by the WhatsApp Hindu khatre mein hain / pride / saviour propaganda. I feel much worse about educate well read relatives around me who fail to see through the bullshit - the boomer generation basically who only want positive news to feel happy about things and wouldn’t see a conjob if it smacked them on the nose.
 
amolbhatia50k said:
Whilst that is true, you can’t ignore the impact on said **** / Cnut following of the government controlled institutions. So when the middle / lower middle class tunes into the 9 pm prime time news and instead of the media tearing into the government 24x7 for two weeks straight due to the electoral bonds scam, likely India’s biggest ever political scam, they see the media largely ignoring that but instead bashing the opposition due to some cookie and diktat thrown their way by the government combined with some Modi worship, then this **** (and cnut) following isn’t as natural as it otherwise seems.

Not to mention the enormous gap in wealth, ED cases etc which ensures this “wave” can be endlessly maintained because you control information and enforcement of law.
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All factors you listed are true but all ground reports indicated that even some/most BJP supporters acknowledged the issues of unemployment, inflation etc. So despite media not shedding a light on this issue, these issues are felt at local level. i think especially in rural India, the media doesn't play as big a role as it does for middle class and above.

Where the capture of media helps Modi in a huge way is generating the perception in voter's mind of TINA - There is no alternative. That along with Modi using Govt scheme to publicise himself as a messiah for rural voters is resulting in people voting for BJP even if they actually hate their local leaders.
 
amolbhatia50k said:
Sad state we are in. I can’t even blame the uneducated or semi educated (most of the country) lot who are consumed by the WhatsApp Hindu khatre mein hain / pride / saviour propaganda. I feel much worse about educate well read relatives around me who fail to see through the bullshit - the boomer generation basically who only want positive news to feel happy about things and wouldn’t see a conjob if it smacked them on the nose.
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Educated folks are definitely worse. Upper class obviously doesn't care about the economy but middle class bigots will get its comeuppance at some point when we fully regress back to license raj days.
 
crappycraperson said:
Educated folks are definitely worse. Upper class obviously doesn't care about the economy but middle class bigots will get its comeuppance at some point when we fully regress back to license raj days.
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don't know if i posted this here before, it's one of my favourite charts. from 2002 gujarat, straight after the riots, modi's first win:

ifdxR8M.png
 
MDFC Manager said:
Hasn't this pattern repeated in almost every election since?
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The riots mean this election was unique, but that general pattern of class and education was definitely true all the way in 2014 lok sabha. I have not checked the 2019 data. probably similar, except BJP does better with poorer/less educated nowadays.

In terms of margin, that was the best BJP performance in Guj assembly (49.9% voteshare vs 39% for Cong), until last year, when they crossed 52%.
 
crappycraperson said:
All factors you listed are true but all ground reports indicated that even some/most BJP supporters acknowledged the issues of unemployment, inflation etc. So despite media not shedding a light on this issue, these issues are felt at local level. i think especially in rural India, the media doesn't play as big a role as it does for middle class and above.

Where the capture of media helps Modi in a huge way is generating the perception in voter's mind of TINA - There is no alternative. That along with Modi using Govt scheme to publicise himself as a messiah for rural voters is resulting in people voting for BJP even if they actually hate their local leaders.
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They acknowledge those issues as a footnote. Like my close relative who says she “knows” about electoral bonds but basically knows nothing beyond “all politicians do corruption”. Heck, she also thinks Modi became chief minister 2 days before the Gujarat riots.

I think you’re slightly playing down the role of the control they have over the various institutions. In this day and age, information is everything. If you control that then you can decide how to portray different pieces of information and what gets inflated / deflated. Creating a “savior” of Hinduism wave is very powerful for example and ensures people will bear a lot of negative things - especially when the population is either semi literate or educated but without a moral conscience. The enormous wealth they have amassed illegitimately also allows them to do things like plaster supreme fools face absolutely everywhere. Or basically rip parties up by threatening their leaders to join them.

And I do wish the opposition itself was stronger but when you see the control over the various institutions the BJP are actively killing any momentum any other leader or party might have. AAP is as good an example as any but many others too.
 
amolbhatia50k said:
They acknowledge those issues as a footnote. Like my close relative who says she “knows” about electoral bonds but basically knows nothing beyond “all politicians do corruption”. Heck, she also thinks Modi became chief minister 2 days before the Gujarat riots.

I think you’re slightly playing down the role of the control they have over the various institutions. In this day and age, information is everything. If you control that then you can decide how to portray different pieces of information and what gets inflated / deflated. Creating a “savior” of Hinduism wave is very powerful for example and ensures people will bear a lot of negative things - especially when the population is either semi literate or educated but without a moral conscience. The enormous wealth they have amassed illegitimately also allows them to do things like plaster supreme fools face absolutely everywhere. Or basically rip parties up by threatening their leaders to join them.

And I do wish the opposition itself was stronger but when you see the control over the various institutions the BJP are actively killing any momentum any other leader or party might have. AAP is as good an example as any but many others too.
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I was mostly referring to rural voters, who, by all accounts are the ones who still decide the election. I am not downplaying Modi further eroding various institutions, hence I referred to him finishing off the job in this term all together.

I am mostly relying on all the ground reports from independent reporters, highlighting rural economic distress, which is recognised by even BJP supporters (excluding Andhbhakts) in these regions. Then many reports had people saying they hate their local MP but still want to vote for Modi as PM. Same people could have chosen to switch their vote. We have at least not reached the stage of democracy where BJP would have not accepted the election result itself.

Essentially if we had a presidential style system, I believe we would have had a case of Modi winning by sizeable margin while BJP losing half of their seats. Given how politics in India has worked at state and national level, that system would have actually resulted in better checks and balances.
 
They have played on the Islamophobia which is rife in India. Using what is happening in Palestine to fuel prejudices in India. Islam is tabled as the enemy to fear which will consume India unless Modi is in charge.

Modi and the BJP will be emboldened by what they are seeing the Israelis doing.

Minorities in India will be next for sure, especially as India and Israel share security and spying capabilities and an obvious hatred of Muslims or minorities.
 
NDA will win again.. but hopefully not a huge majority and we have some kind of opposition going forward..
also, makes NDA actually work for future elections.
 
If INDIA wins more than half of UP, I'll never say a bad thing about the state :lol:

Meanwhile Karnataka shits the bed again
 
Karanataka.. and mostly Andhra.. wouldve been really really close if AP didnt feck it up.
 
All I wanted was a strong opposition.. it's not like Congress is a great option either..
This is a start..
BJP not getting a majority on its own is big as well.
 
Been surrounded by tech bros who think Vivek Ramaswamy is great and that Modi should and will win 400+.

Everyone and their dog knew that BJP is winning again, but glad to see that they're on course to have an opposition, for a change.
 
Fantastic so far. BJP getting a big fight from the opposition. Only issue is that corrupt TMC is winning again in Bengal.
 
what has happened in UP man. can't believe it. losing ayodhya? smriti trailing?
 
Geez now I feel bad for not voting
My UP vote would have mattered
 
harshad said:
Mumbai NW - Waikar is winning by 1.7k votes. You should have flown down to vote man. Every vote counts.
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after these results waikar might do what he wanted to do anyway and go back to uddhav :lol:
 
How much will Yogi's stock fall after this?
Does BJP have a successor lined up or is it just Modi everywhere
 
prateik said:
How much will Yogi's stock fall after this?
Does BJP have a successor lined up or is it just Modi everywhere
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I think I mentioned earlier, grapevine suggested Yogi wasn't actively working for Modi this time. Whether true, we can't ever know but if true it's probably because he felt sidelined by the gujju duo
 
I feel such relief after the exit poll nightmare! I was afraid of switching on the TV today.
 
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