Hey mate, you need to go out with a paper and ask people the specific question @Zehner is asking and give him the results, otherwise he wont accept it
And remember to go to the small towns when you do.
German Football 20/21
- Thread starter do.ob
- Start date
Hey mate, you need to go out with a paper and ask people the specific question @Zehner is asking and give him the results, otherwise he wont accept it
And remember to go to the small towns when you do.
All the tongue in cheek aside, you're the one defending a league format that lead to one club winning the competition nine seasons in a row. It shouldn't be me who has to explain himself for wanting change, it should be you for objecting change. If you get your way, Bayern will have made it 18 out of 20 in ten years time.
Do you seriously believe that yourself? You think one team winning the competition 9 times in a row has no effect on fan engagement?
This is really absurd. I'm not even stating anything controversial. If the Bundesliga goes on like this, it has a serious problem. There's no two ways about it.
Well if that is the case, may as well change the name of the league from the Bundesliga to the Bayernliga.
I think you're conflating club fans with football fans. I myself think it's boring that Bayern wins it all, cause that makes it less interesting to follow the BL as a league. But if you're a fan of a club that's (very) unlikely to be winning titles anyway, and that's whose games you follow, why would you care who wins the league instead?
Exactly.
Oh and by the way: The FC Bayern is the most hated football club in Germany. So much for that.
You've got a point there but I don't think you can see it in isolation, really. Sure, there are the people who don't watch football if their club isn't involved but most club fans I know also watch other games. And they'll naturally watch more games without any involvement of their club when the title race is exciting. In the end, Bayern themselves can't be happy about that either because it's a competitive disadvantage if the domestic league isn't engaging enough.
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The same people watch when the race for top four is interesting or the relegation fight...
Wtf have you done. I didn't write that
It's absurd to believe that removing the one elite club from the League could be the solution.
Do you even read my posts? That's not what I'm believing. This is getting ridiculous.
I need to explain?
-Why don't you explain how exceptions for Wolfsburg, Leverkusen or Hoffenheim benefit the title race, which you are so concerned about?
-Why don't you give some real world examples for investors who push clubs to Bayern's level.
-Why don't you then admit, since there aren't any other examples, that it's really only sports washing operations who do that, so we can have an honest conversation, instead of this vague hypothetical bullshit.
And it's not a reasonable position to say: Bayern won 9 titles, so lets kill the one fundamental thing about Bundesliga, that creates some separation from other leagues and just immediately lose thousands of hardcore committed fans and kill all atmospherei in the stadiums, because something something more money.
It's equally foolish to believe some Investor would magically show up and dump hundreds of millions into to a club just to end Bayern's dominance, if you just got rid of 50+1. Again, Investors aren't charities. They want to turn a nice profit, and you usually do that by rasing prices across the board.
In the end, they'd strive for that nice Top4 trophy that guarantees a good revenue steam out of the CL at reasonable opportunity costs. What you are really looking for is some billionaire sugardaddy or Oil Emirate. Not sure about their acceptance, though, see Hopp.
I don't want this to derail but the tone is getting pretty aggressive. See, I don't care if it's ditching 50 + 1 or something we don't even think about but it is clear to me that something needs to happen because the Bundesliga is slowly tumbling towards irelevancy again. Just going on as we do will widen the gap between teams while the international competition grows faster than our clubs. This has nothing to do with me being a Leverkusen fan, it is a general observation.
I think in one way or another we all enjoyed that the Bundesliga was very competitive again since around 2009/10. That had much to do with clever management and revolutionary tactics. But this isn't a competitive edge anymore, many clubs are lead as professionally and the top coaches who began their career in the Bundesliga are now at 'foreign' clubs..
To me, 50 + 1 is a method of ensuring that it's not becoming too uncomfortable for established clubs. It's like the equivalent of the Personenbeförderungsgesetz, only for football. But I understand that people see something different in it. But if we keep it, the leage needs other reforms and I don't really have a clue how they could look like.
I think in one way or another we all enjoyed that the Bundesliga was very competitive again since around 2009/10. That had much to do with clever management and revolutionary tactics. But this isn't a competitive edge anymore, many clubs are lead as professionally and the top coaches who began their career in the Bundesliga are now at 'foreign' clubs..
To me, 50 + 1 is a method of ensuring that it's not becoming too uncomfortable for established clubs. It's like the equivalent of the Personenbeförderungsgesetz, only for football. But I understand that people see something different in it. But if we keep it, the leage needs other reforms and I don't really have a clue how they could look like.
Vote of the best footballer, newcomer and team of the season by the VDV - organisation of professional footballers in Germany.
Lewy 75.9 %
Haaland 7.9 %
Müller 3.5 %
Newcomer
Bellingham 24.9 %
Musiala 19.9 %
Wirtz 9.9 %
Coach
Hütter 34.0 %
Flick 29.1 %
Nagelsmann, Glasner both 10.6 %
Team:
Manuel Neuer (Bayern München, 51,8 Prozent) - Alphonso Davies (Bayern München, 30,5 Prozent), Dayot Upamecano (RB Leipzig, 57,4 Prozent), Mats Hummels (Borussia Dortmund, 36,9 Prozent), David Alaba (Bayern München, 46,1 Prozent) - Filip Kostic (Eintracht Frankfurt, 28,4 Prozent), Joshua Kimmich (Bayern München, 81,6 Prozent), Thomas Müller (Bayern München, 41,1 Prozent), Leon Goretzka (Bayern München, 45,4 Prozent) - Robert Lewandowski (Bayern München, 96,5 Prozent), Erling Haaland (Borussia Dortmund, 61,7 Prozent).
Lewy 75.9 %
Haaland 7.9 %
Müller 3.5 %
Newcomer
Bellingham 24.9 %
Musiala 19.9 %
Wirtz 9.9 %
Coach
Hütter 34.0 %
Flick 29.1 %
Nagelsmann, Glasner both 10.6 %
Team:
Manuel Neuer (Bayern München, 51,8 Prozent) - Alphonso Davies (Bayern München, 30,5 Prozent), Dayot Upamecano (RB Leipzig, 57,4 Prozent), Mats Hummels (Borussia Dortmund, 36,9 Prozent), David Alaba (Bayern München, 46,1 Prozent) - Filip Kostic (Eintracht Frankfurt, 28,4 Prozent), Joshua Kimmich (Bayern München, 81,6 Prozent), Thomas Müller (Bayern München, 41,1 Prozent), Leon Goretzka (Bayern München, 45,4 Prozent) - Robert Lewandowski (Bayern München, 96,5 Prozent), Erling Haaland (Borussia Dortmund, 61,7 Prozent).
That team's shape is a bit strange. But I guess you shouldn't worry too much about positions in these kind of votings.
I'm surprised to see Davies. I think he has had a very quiet season. Really fell off a cliff after the triple season.
I'm surprised to see Davies. I think he has had a very quiet season. Really fell off a cliff after the triple season.
Mark van Bommel is the new coach at Wolfsburg.
Old news.
https://media.recovery.org/wp-content/uploads/recovery-shutter220551280-nope.jpg
(I know, it wasn't yet official back then.)
Bundesliga's problem is that Bayern and Dortmund are the only big clubs consistently making top four. There are two obvious reasons for that:
a) Some of the big clubs suffer from chaotic leadership - this is something they have to overcome on their own
b) The Clubs that have been doing good work for a while, e.g. Gladbach or Frankfurt being kept away from EL/CL spots by clubs with bigger budgets and get caught in a one/two steps forward one/two steps backward loop.
Top four for Frankfurt would have been a huge deal, a chance to reach the next level. Wolfsburg kept them out. Why could they do that? Did they do better work? They (net) spent €115m more than Frankfurt over the past five years and €40m more in annual wages. Why can they do that? Are they a bigger club? No, actually Frankfurt sells more than twice the amount of tickets as them. Have they gotten a lot of prize money then? Not really.
And what will Wolfsburg do with that top four finish? Will they increase their fanbase? Nope, because being plastic makes that impossible, when they last played EL they sold 11 thousand tickets for home games. Will they increase their sponsorship deals? Not really, since being FC Volkswagen makes them really unattractive for independent sponsoring. Will daddy VW at least take this as a chance to further built on that success with increased sponsoring? Well after they won the Cup the club recorded its highest ever transfer profits.
The way this is supposed to work is that after Hamburg or Schalke imploded it should have been someone else's turn to fill their role, but in Bundesliga we have these plastic clubs, who spend just enough to keep promising clubs down, without ever challenging Bayern, but have zero ambition or growth potential beyond that.
So really: the obvious answer is to do what the cartel office suggested and eliminate exceptions from 50+1, so clubs with actual potential get a chance to get CL money more than once every blue moon.
Old news.
https://media.recovery.org/wp-content/uploads/recovery-shutter220551280-nope.jpg
(I know, it wasn't yet official back then.)
I have no idea how good a coach he is, but a CV that consists of 18 months at PSV followed by 18 months of unemployment doesn't necessarily impress and to add to that they appointed as supporting cast: Kevin Hofland - it doesn't necessarily disqualify him as an assistant, but his last job saw him earn 0.67ppg as a head coach? And Michael Frontzeck, who hasn't worked as an assistant in 15 years and whom I remember as an absolutely atrocious head coach, which is probably why he has been out of work (according to TM) for the last 2.5 years.
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No offense but in my opinion, this is wishful thinking. IMO you dislike the clubs you call plastic and want them to be responsible. I mean, even if they were and you just removed them from the league, it would take clubs like Frankfurt, Schalke or Hamburg at least 5-10 years of better management than they had in the past two decades to get on the level of even Dortmund. And chances are that Bayern still grows faster in the same time window, widening the gap further. This is a natural monopoly - the longer it goes on, the more the financial prowess between the top club and the rest will grow. Bayern have already won 9 out of 10 and it is not going to become better but worse, it is the nature of the system. You might as well declare that Bayern has won Bundesliga at this point and move on. Even if they lose a title once in a while, they will bounce back harder than ever. And such a league will generally grow slower than a league with an actual title race.
Regarding "plastic" clubs being responsible for keeping the sleeping giants from consistently making top 4: Dortmund proved that we're no match for a club of that magnitude once it gets its act together.The times we made top 4, we were there because we used our money wiser than the rest. Also, those clubs weren't kept out by us, they sometimes didn't even make the EL and many of them were even relegated recently. They're terribly managed clubs and they have been since decades - this is the very thing that allowed Bayern to gain so much ground in the first place.
The last three season Bayern finished on 78, 82 and 78 points. Those are achievable numbers for Dortmund and there were plenty of things they could have done better to reach that, e.g. sacking Favre, who is not a title winning coach, earlier, not signing Meunier to replace Hakimi, not spending €50m on Schulz and Brandt the year before, and not spending €20m on Wolf and Balerdi the year before that. Now of course it's not realistic to expect that Dortmund don't make mistakes, but add another one or two Dortmund sized clubs in the mix, or even just don't have Leipzig snap up Nagelsmann and it might not have been 9 titles in a row for Bayern.
The current situation developed over 2-3 decades, it's not realistic to expect a short term fix, or really for any club to catch up to Bayern if they keep doing good work. That's life. But having more clubs the size of Dortmund would be a considerable improvement.
Dortmund just won the lottery several times over with Klopp: in terms of coaching, in terms of development and in terms of PR. That was a proper miracle that other clubs can't expect to replicate. Plus there was no Leipzig blocking their way. It's an entirely different situation now. Bayern, Dortmund and Leipzig have a subscription on top four spots, then you have Leverkusen and Wolfsburg, who can just maintain high wage bills regardless of their actual success on the pitch..
You have three to four teams fighting for that fourth CL spot, which is so essential for financial growth and two of them can just maintain huge (relative to their two competitors) wage bills or in Wolfsburg's case just spend completely anticyclically.
Gladbach make top four and can only loan two flops from other clubs, meanwhile Wolfsburg finish 7th and just buy Baku and Lacroix.
You talk about spending money more wisely when the latest wage numbers are Leverkusen €140m, Wolfsburg €124, Gladbach €104m, Frankfurt €84. And on transfers? €26m on Schick, €32m on Demirbay, € 17m on Palacios, €18m on Paulino, €12m on Weiser, €24m on Alario, €17m on Retsos, €21m on Dragovic. I don't think I have to talk about Wolfsburg either.
Meanwhile Gladbach - in their entire history - have bought two players for over €15m. Frankfurt have two signings over €10m. I get that you want to make this all about Schalke and Hamburg, but they got what was coming to them and no one is shedding a tear for them. The problem is that other big clubs can't take their place, because there are these buffer clubs, who significantly outspend them for no good reason.
It's crazy to me that there might be some alternative reality out there where Barrios doesn't get injured in 2011 and Lewandowski just leaves for some upper/mid table PD/PL team in 2012. I remember my dad telling me that he was a bit shit and Dortmund needed someone who's better in front of the goal if they wanted to get anywhere. Couldn't have imagined that he would turn out to be the best pure striker of the next ten years at the time.
I already addressed that point in the post you quoted, I think. Even if Bayern gifts a title to another club by fecking up, you can be sure they will bounce back heavier than ever. This is what happened when Dortmund dared to take two titles in a row from them.
And this is a fatal attitude, I believe. Here's the revenue growth of both clubs from 2011 (after Klopp's first Bundesliga win) to 2019 (pre covid) according to the Deloitte Money League (I can only add 10 rows which is why 2010 is excluded):
| Club | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| Bayern | 321(-1%) | 368 (+15%) | 431 (+17%) | 488 (+13%) | 474 (-3%) | 592 (+25%) | 588 (-1%) | 629 (+7%) | 660 +(5%) |
| Dortmund | 138 (+31%) | 197 (+43%) | 256 (+30%) | 262 (+2%) | 281 (+7%) | 284 (+1%) | 333 (+17%) | 317 (-5%) | 377 (+19%) |
So it took Dortmund to "hit the lottery several times with Klopp" as you put it to really gain ground on Bayern. And that's not even factoring in the law of diminishing returns. Dortmund isn't getting closer, they're falling farther behind.
That's not true. We already discussed this. The only reason we can afford such a high wage bill is because we have a relatively low net spent on transfers and because we were the third most successful club over the past two decades in the Bundesliga. Moreover, we can not just reinvest what we earn but have a Rückabführungsklausel with Bayer.
On the risk of repeating myself: We discussed Leverkusen's transfer expenditures already. You can't just look at what we spent but also have to consider what we earned through sales.
Also, Gladbach was a relegation candidate through the whole 00s. They only stepped it up after Favre took over around 10 years ago. Frankfurt was a midtable to relegation team until only 3 to 4 years ago. They didn't underperform as severely as Schalke or HSV but still could've done much better. And that's only speaking of the past decades - Gladbach was the second best team at some point in the 70s or 80s I believe but as every German club except for Bayern they failed to commercialize.
So? I mean what do you expect? Bayern to cease existing? When things have turned into total dominance, teams taking titles off of Bayern every now and then is the logical next step back to a more competitive title race. Be honest here, you're hoping for Saudi Arabia to take over a club?!
Actually the relative proportions remain somewhat steady around 55%. And what do you expect to see here? Change and growth doesn't happen over night - unless we're talking sports washing of course - part of it is that sponsorship and other contracts are only adjusted every couple of years, part of it is that Dortmund hasn't done enough on the pitch recently and part of it is Bayern winning the CL twice over that period. I don't know how this is going to develop long term, but I do see that Dortmund are separating further and further from the rest of the league and that is at least as important as the gap to Bayern.
You think a €30m to €40m annual gap in the wage bill is caused by the fact that Gladbach's net spend over the last five years is €15m higher? Why is the past relevant? Because past successes usually translate into bigger fan bases and more commercial and match day revenue. Unfortunately that does not seem to apply to Leverkusen. Gladbach have twice the ticket sales, a bigger kit supplier deal and a bigger shirt sponsorship deal. So on that account they should actually be outspending Leverkusen handily. Both clubs have one CL finish recently, so that's not a factor either. So really, it's quite obvious where the money is coming from. And please lets not pretend that Leipzig and Wolfsburg don't exist as well.
I think Dortmund gaining ground on the runner ups comes down to the gaps between all teams widening and that's not good for the league. It becomes predictable. Bayern begins every season with a slightly bigger head start to the previous one and so does Dortmund, just to a smaller extent. The longer the league continues, the more extreme will this look like. Bayern is already operating several orders of magnitude above Dortmund. If we just continue like this, we can as well declare that Bayern has won Bundesliga, be done with it and move on. Because that's the inevitable consequence when a club has outgrown the competition. People might be opposed to it but at some point in the future, they will give in.
Another way to look at it is that usually, growing companies have to deal with diminishing returns. Growing from 100M in revenue to 200M is easier than growing from 300M to 600M. But it seems that this doesn't work because in football, finishing first makes it a bit more probable that you finish first in the next season, too. It's a systemic dynamic that ultimately leads to one team being heads and shoulders above anyone else unless you provide other routes to the top.
I don't think it's the logical next step towards a more competitive title race. It would be an outlier before a stronger bounce effect. When the United fans in here claimed that Dortmund didn't win any titles because they didn't want it enough and see themselves as a selling clubs, you explained them that Bayern is financially much stronger and that Dortmund don't stand much chance against such a difference in wealth. And this difference in wealth is getting bigger and bigger. And even if this was wrong and there was a way for Dortmund to be on eye level with Bayern maybe around 2030, I fear this will be too late. Supporters will grow weary of seeing the same team win it all over again. There's a reason that the English fans were the ones most opposed to the ESL across Europe - they have different league winners every season.
And no, I'm not hoping for Saudi Arabia to take over a German football club. What I'm hoping for is something in between the extremes. I actually like the model of RB, Bayer and VW. I see it as a different way of sponsoring. In general I'm just hoping that ditching 50 + 1 would make capital easier accessible for lots of (traditional) clubs, functioning as acceleration for growth. Now I'm not saying that this would definitely work, nor am I claiming that it's the only way but I think something needs to happen or domestic leagues will be degraded to second divisions. Personally, I'd favor a UEFA wide wage and transfer fee cap but I fear it's too late to implement something like that.
Every single one of our sponsors shares us as a platform with Bayer. It's clear that we would be able to negotiate better sponsoring deals without the investor. You yourself state how important sustainable success in the league is for a club. We had that success over two decades, Gladbach and Frankfurt were miles behind us on that front.
And no, it's not all about growing fan base through success. Top 4 finishes are so important because the UCL brings you crazy money and this money can be used to maintain the squad. And it also grants you TV money from the league. Now I know you'll argue that this money comes from the audience magnets and that the plastic clubs leech on them but all this much more complicated than you depict it. Of course in the end every revenue comes from the fans but there are so many different ways how that money flows. Interest among neutral fans, interest among rival fans on match days, interest among international fans, securing UEFA points, bringing talent into the league through scouting and academies, innovation and so forth.
In the end, if you would kick the "plastic" clubs out of the league, it will suffer in the long term, I'm absolutely sure of that.
Every league is getting top heavy, because CL money has such a huge impact. This is not an issue specific to Bundesliga. And diminishing returns are given by the cost efficiency of your spending. Bayern doubling their turnover didn't mean their squad strength doubled, it meant they had to pay €80m for Hernandez, instead of €40m for Javi Martinez or €45m for Sane instead of €25m for Robben.
The difference isn't getting bigger it's keeping a relatively stead ratio. And it's ironic that you bring up English supporters as a measuring stick in your argument against 50+1, when it's the same set of supporters that are protesting for the implementation of a similar rule. And Germany's plastic clubs really are some example. They share one league win among the three, almost 15 years ago, when Bayern weren't nearly as dominant. Leipzig is the only one who is even remotely close to being able to dreaming of ever winning the league, Wolfsburg just keeps bouncing around in the table, Leverkusen have regressed from a title candidate and CL finalist to an EL team. Why on earth would the league benefit from more clubs like these? Especially when traditionally big clubs would never enter such an agreement.
You do realize that Leverkusen's and Wolfsburg's stadiums are basically the smallest in the league? And yet these clubs still have a lot of trouble selling them out, to the point of Leverkusen reducing ticket prices by 30%? How is this about sharing a platform with Bayer? How would that even apply to Leverkusen's pitiful shirt supplier deal with Jako? It's clear as day that these clubs are propped up massively by their parent companies. Wolfsburg has not played in the CL in 5 years, yet their wage bill is over €120m, Leverkusen has played in the CL once over the last 5 years and their wage bill is €140m - these clubs aren't raking in massive amounts of TV/prize money. In the latest round of domestic TV money Wolfsburg made €71m, Frankfurt €77m, Gladbach €79m, Leverkusen €90m.
I think you're mistaking diminishing returns with the rising of prices when there's more money in the market. Diminishing return is a common phenomenon in marketing. The acquisition costs per customer are very low at the start of a business but increase with every additional one. That's because naturally you access the most engaged target groups at first. But once you have successfully monetized them, you need to target new markets which is usually costlier. Moreover, if Dortmund finds a new revenue source that guarantees them 20M € a year, this translates to less growth than it did when their revenue was at 50M €. Dortmund is currently at 365M € revenue. It took Bayern 7 years to get from 390M to 715M. That's a feat that Dortmund first have to repeat. Moreover, keep in mind that Dortmund's numbers were boosted by sales.
I don't think you can really argue that the difference isn't getting bigger. The revenues of Bayern grew similarly to Dortmund since they fought their way back to the top and that's without player sales. I mean, you only need to take a look at the wage budgets. According to Zeit, Bayern currently has a wage budget of 356M €, Dortmund has 205M € in 2019 (173%). Historic numbers are a bit harder to find but according to this report Bayern was around 120M € in 2012/13 and Dortmund at around 50M € (240%). Bayern increased their budget by 230M €, Dortmund by 150M €. And keep in mind that Dortmund started with a very low budget. At the time Bayern was at 120M €, the second place was at 90M € (133%).
Wage bills can't be adjusted on the fly, they're dependent on contracts which span multiple years. You can be sure that we're about to lower our wage bill significantly due to the disappointing results in the last five years. We failed to move so many players on in the last summers. Just a few posts, you named them yourselves. Also worth mentioning that the numbers we're speaking about are two years old. Since then, Havertz, Brandt and Volland have left us. And this summer, we got three top earners off the wage bill with the Benders and Dragovic.
And yes, of course those companies are paying us much. I don't think you will find a sane Leverkusen fan who denies this. But thing is, those companies have to follow economic principles and don't invest just because they feel like it. They do so because they get something out of it, same like sponsors.
I know what diminishing returns are. I'm not seeing a huge improvement in Bayern's squad strength compared to 12/13, but for Dortmund the difference is huge, especially when it comes to squad depth and room for mistakes, now if you want you can call it inflation (that's affecting clubs differently), but to me it seems pretty clear that smaller clubs get more improvement out of their budget increase than big clubs.
50/120 = 42%
215/340 = 63%
I'll believe that when I see it. And do you think any of the plastic clubs could get a fraction of what they currently receive if they were operating independently? It's because of their 50+1 exception that corporations pump so much money into them, which is why it's about time to implement the request of the cartel office.
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Bayern's squad lost some quality. Dortmund's probably as well although Reus/Götze/Lewandowski 2012 aren't far off Haaland/Sancho/Reus 2021 I'd say. Anyway, this is only temporary because Dortmund won't hold onto these players. Haaland might even take the Lewandowski route and become his heir at Bayern once he leaves the BVB. The moment Bayern realize that their dominant position in Germany is at risk, they'll spend big again. Dortmund currently has hit the jackpot with Sancho and Haaland, just like Bayern did with Robben and Ribery, but the difference is one pair stayed at the club until they were finished at elite level while the other will have their peaks elsewhere. I mean, you argued very differently when you discussed the spending power topic with English fans in here.
Well, you just argued that you know what diminishing returns are. To illustrate that: It took Bayern three years to go from 223M revenue to 323M. Dortmund needed four years to go from 256M revenue to 332M. And that's although often Dortmund regularly sold their star players while Bayern barely sold any.
If the cartel office would be serious they'd cancel 50 + 1, not the exceptions. The reasoning is far too weak to justify such a clear monopoly as we currently witness in German football.
This alone is why nothing like what you suggest will happen. The DFL would be too afraid of the law suits and RB, VW and Bayer won't just let projects die which they ran over decades. In the end, they'd find another way anyway. They want to invest this money because it pays off for them.
People in Germany are just too afraid of change. Especially traditionalists and conformists.
It's less about peak squad strength, but the overall level of the operation. Back then Dortmund had Schieber and Leitner as back ups, these days it's Brandt and Hazard, star players from EL teams and Dortmund can use their lesser role to their advantage in the sense that they can play FM in real life and attract several of the top tier talents in the world. Sancho and Haaland will leave, but then there are Bellingham, Reyna, Moukoko and maybe one or two youth players who will eventually fill their shoes. It's not enough to get to eye level with Bayern, who will always have the much more settled squad, but it helps in the other 32 games they play in a season. On the other hand we're actually seeing Bayern bleed out players again. Thiago, Alaba and Coman might be next. That only used to happen once every blue moon in the past. Bayern's edge is of course still massive, but these past couple of seasons Dortmund were not without their chances.
Those FML numbers don't include transfer revenue.
You keep repeating that and you keep going on about Bayern's dominance, but I'm yet to see you show me how the clubs in questions can challenge Bayern.
And as far as "they won't just let projects die" stuff goes, I'm sure you're aware of Leverkusen's sister clubs?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KFC_Uerdingen_05
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayer_Giants_Leverkusen
Those are valid points and I hope you're right. My fear is that this is only temporary because Dortmund is on the end of a very successful talent cycle which they most likely won't be able to repeat. I also noticed that Bayern is being outbid for players again and have mixed feelings about this. According to my theory we might be seeing more of this in the future because Bayern will inevitably lose ground on other top clubs because their leagues are more engaging due to a real title race, especially for neutral/international fans (and ambitious players, too). Both Dortmund and Bayern losing players to top clubs again would certainly make the league more interesting again but ideally neither should lose players to top clubs anymore.
My bad, that was stupid. Still the diminishing returns remain and as I showed Bayern definitely took some revenue milestones in a shorter time period than Dortmund, suggesting a faster growth.
See, as you already explained clubs like Leverkusen or Wolfsburg have severe growth limitations. Leverkusen is a small city surrounded by big clubs they contest with in neighboring cities, Wolfsburg is similar. But if such a company supported a club like Schalke or the HSV, the growth potential would be much bigger. Leipzig is already going into this direction since the club is the only one in the Bundesliga right now from East Germany. And I can't give you a guarantee that it would work. I just think we need to try something. By the time a club grows organically to a size to really challenge Bayern, it'll probably be too late.
Regarding Uerdingen and Bayer Giants: I don't think it is completely impossible that Bayer is abandoning us. But I also think that those are very different cases. I don't believe Bayer invested in us because of the advertising impact. It was more due to a "pleasing stakeholders" approach by the company. I believe you'd be surprised how present Bayer 04 Leverkusen support is in Leverkusen itself - it's almost like a Gallic village. For Bayer, the club guarantees that they have the support of the resident citizens and likewise they would face a huge backlash if they just let the club die.
Bayern will somewhen have to replace Neuer, Müller and Lewy - and that will be very difficult. And it is not just about their performance on the field where this season Müllendowski carried them through the year but off the pitch, too.
Kimmich alone as leader type cannot prevent this - and I do not see any charismatic figure to really help with it then. He is more the guy that kicks ass if someone does not function - not the one that shows empathy. You need both - not from the same player but from the team leaders.
People often just see the money differences - but it is more about it.
Kimmich alone as leader type cannot prevent this - and I do not see any charismatic figure to really help with it then. He is more the guy that kicks ass if someone does not function - not the one that shows empathy. You need both - not from the same player but from the team leaders.
People often just see the money differences - but it is more about it.
Absolutely. Neuer declining and leaving will be a massive moment in itself - for a decade now we've been basically taking for granted having the Messi of goalkeepers at the back. It will be more or less impossible to find someone as good as him again, so a drop in quality, in a position of fundamental relevance, is guaranteed.
The cycle coming to an end is actually a much bigger issue for Bayern, with Lewandowski, Neuer, Müller, Alaba and to a lesser degree Boateng, consistent performers for the better part of a decade, who are now leaving for free or retiring. Dortmund are always operating on shorter cycles and have many more moving parts. Reus and Hummels are the big concerns.
But this is wishful thinking at best. There is so much wrong with these assumptions:
-Clubs like Schalke or Hamburg wouldn't allow someone to take them over.
-Even if they did there would be severe fan protests, the club would become plastic and lose a lot of its appeal.
-Economically it doesn't make sense to push much further than top four for profit seeking owners.
-You kill 50+1 and no one knows how many more micro plastics will spawn and pollute the system. It's already too many.
Bayern doesn't need to build from scratch again. They have the financial strength to replace their star players and also to compensate a fee very expensive failed transfers. Dortmund currently has two generational talents among them and even with them they couldn't really challenge Bayern post Ribery and Robben.
In the end football fans are opportunistic like everybody else. Of course it wouldn't work to rename the club to "RB Schalke" or anything like that but the Schalke fans were already fine with selling the soul of the club to Gazprom and especially in the current situation they'd probably see it as a way back to the top.
I mean, you use the term plastic a lot, what does it actually mean for you? Because the clubs in question are already extremely commercialized anyway.
Even Bayern can't just straight up buy replacements for Lewandowski, Neuer or Müller. I don't expect them to implode, they will still be an elite club, but these last like 10 years were a proper golden era for them and maintaining it to this extend is far from given. Dortmund will not be able to replace Sancho and Haaland like for like, obviously. But as I have said the club has a lot more moving parts and thus lot more avenues of improvement than an elite club.
For example Kobel will hopefully be a significant upgrade over Bürki and Hitz, RB is another position that can be strengthened greatly for a moderate fee. Then there are young players like Bellingham or Reyna, who are already playing significant roles, but due to their age still promise huge room for improvement. Then there were some painful transfer flops and the fact that after Tuchel the coaches haven't really worked out as well as one would have hoped and the academy has not been as productive as it should have been. It's always a one step backwards two steps forward kind of development, but unless they feck up majorly the club will bounce back from losing Sancho and Haaland relatively quickly, just like they did with every other top performer they had to let go over the years.
But this is getting dishonest again. These corporations are investing in their clubs, precisely, because they bear their name, otherwise they could just do what their counterparts at Bayern or Dortmund do, and opt for a strategic partnership with a well run club at a much smaller price. And it's quite obvious, that even now Schalke would not sell out control of their club. Because of their troubles they are discussing a change of their legal form, but they don't even seem to be willing to go into the KGaA or AG direction (like Dortmund or Bayern), but instead seem to be set on "eG" as their new model.
And I would assume that most people define "plastic" as operating outside of 50+1, with a motivation that isn't purely maximizing sporting success anymore.
Bayern might have gotten really lucky for Müller's replacement. I think Musiala could become a great number 10/offensive midfielder with his dribbling skills in tight spaces and good finishing.
Neuer's replacement at Bayern will probably end up being the new goalkeeper for the German national team, after Ter Stegen had his shot for like one tournament as Germany's #1 after Neuer retired. Bayern just has a way of getting Germany's #1 as their goalie.
Lewandowski's replacement however will be extremly difficult to find and Bayern will probably end up losing the most quality at the centre forward position. World class strikers are the most expensive and sought after players in football. Bayern got extremly lucky getting Lewandowski from Dortmund. Fortunately, Lewandoski is a true professional and might be able to play well into his thirties, similar to Christiano Ronaldo.
But whenever the time comes for Bayern to have to replace Lewy they will be in for a world of pain, unless they've been hiding a little Gerd Müller clone in their academy. Maybe Moukoko will develop into a very good centre forward at Dortmund and Bayern can pick him up on a free transfer. Never change a winning system.
Neuer's replacement at Bayern will probably end up being the new goalkeeper for the German national team, after Ter Stegen had his shot for like one tournament as Germany's #1 after Neuer retired. Bayern just has a way of getting Germany's #1 as their goalie.
Lewandowski's replacement however will be extremly difficult to find and Bayern will probably end up losing the most quality at the centre forward position. World class strikers are the most expensive and sought after players in football. Bayern got extremly lucky getting Lewandowski from Dortmund. Fortunately, Lewandoski is a true professional and might be able to play well into his thirties, similar to Christiano Ronaldo.
But whenever the time comes for Bayern to have to replace Lewy they will be in for a world of pain, unless they've been hiding a little Gerd Müller clone in their academy. Maybe Moukoko will develop into a very good centre forward at Dortmund and Bayern can pick him up on a free transfer. Never change a winning system.
Are you referring to Nübel? I really don't see him becoming Germany's new goal keeper. I mean, if really no other prospect emerges, it might be the case but that would mean we have the worst keeper in our history, probably. Unless Nübel makes a huge step forward but he's already 24 already, so.. I guess Ter Stegen is pretty much guaranteed the spot for 4+ years after Neuer's retirement. He's six years younger, after all, and no other keeper really comes close to their level.
Regarding the Lewandowski replacement: I think they'll find one relatively easily. Bayern had great strikers for as long as I can remember. Bayern is so cautious on the transfer market that they can spend big when they really need somebody. They might even go for Werner when the day of Lewandowski's retirement comes now Nagelsmann is there.
I can't imagine Moukoko, though. The guy seems really emotionally invested into Dortmund, saying stuff like he wants to win the UCL with them and labeling them his dream club. Him going to Bayern would be a bigger betrayal than even Götze. He'd probably pick a foreign club when he leaves.
No, not Nübel. I think Nübel might still become a decent goalkeeper for a different German club. But there is just no way Nübel becomes Bayern's #1. Neuer will still be playing for far too long for that.
I mean Germany's #1 goalkeeper after Ter Stegen's, probably rather short, time to shine. Four years, so one or two big tournaments, might be a good estimation for that. Who that goalkeeper might be exactly? No idea. But after the end of Kahn's career Bayern had a couple of seasons with Butt, Rensing and Kraft before they got Neuer. So things will probably be the same until a clear cut, future #1 goalkeeper for Germany shows himself in the Bundesliga.
As for Lewandowski's sucessor. Bayern will probably get a replacement whose about at the level that Mario Mandzukic, Roy Makaay, Giovanni Elber, Mario Gomez, Miro Klose and Luca Toni were at. Those were the big star players and centre forwards before Bayern got Lewandowski. And I agree, all of them, except for Mario Gomez, did a great job at Bayern and are remembered very fondly by the fans. Gomez did okay-ish, but he just didn't offer much except for his goalscoring.
But none of those players were as good as Lewandowski. None of those players was the worlds best centre forward for two seasons, in which he should have won the ballon d'or twice. And there's a dirty secret why that's the case. Bayern isn't big enough to consistently land the world's absolute best strikers. Bayern tried with Ruud Van Nistlerooy - but he just used Bayern to get better wages at Real and play in a squad with Ronaldo and Raul. Bayern just isn't willing to pay what it takes to get the absolute best strikers in the world, or the talents with a clear cut path to become the worlds best strikers, like Mbappe or Haaland. They lack the prestige of Real Madrid or Barcelona, or the endless pockets of PSG or Manchester City to do so. The primera division and premier league are also more attractive to top players than the Bundesliga.
So Bayern has to shop a shelf below the best of the best strikers - and they can therefore only land a player of Lewandowski's caliber with a huge amount of luck. And I doubt Bayern will have that much Dusel two times in a row.
Well, the absolute numbers are interesting to see but at best meaningless. It's all relative. 100 million € difference can mean the world or be almost neglectable depending if it's 50 to 150 million or 900 to 1.000 million. That's rather basic understanding of math. Give your numbers Dortmund has tripled their annual revenue while Bayern has doubled it. Or to go even more into detail about the percentage of Dortmunds revenue compared to Bayerns:
2011 / 2012 / 2013 / 2014 / 2015 / 2016 / 2017 / 2018 / 2019
42,68% / 53,53% / 59,40% / 53,69% / 59,28% / 47,97% / 56,635 / 50,40% / 57,12%
And that is ignoring that Dortmund also had to pay off depts until rather recently which ate away from the actual revenue.
2013 being the year with the Champions League final, thus barely comparable to the other more "average" years. Even Bayern had less revenue the year after. 2016 was a negative outlier. Other than that these numbers look reasonable and showcase Dortmund not falling behind - despite the non-stop success Bayern has had.
That being said - I would like to see those numbers without transfer revenue as the consistent sources of revenue are way more important. For example 2017 looking strong due to the Dembele transfer.
It certainly disproves your claim of "falling behind". Stagnation seems correct, though.
Additionally I do not understand your argument for law of diminishing returns - because if anything, it would hit Bayern earlier than Dortmund. Meaning Bayern is closer to their limit of growth.