Poor guy. I was wrong.
German Football 20/21
- Thread starter do.ob
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Hertha! What a team! Even Leverkusen can't stop them!
Wow, Leverkusen 0:3 down.
Is this the last game for Peter Bosz?
Is this the last game for Peter Bosz?
They pattern of play is starkly similar to Bosz term at Dortmund.
Leverkusen constantly attacking, miss some easy chances. Hertha get a few attacks and easily get through their defense to score.
Schicks two misses were really bad.
How can it be that Leverkusen is already 3 down... It is only the big city club...
Just switched in.
Holy shit what's going on there?
Leverkusen are playing like they always do: controlling most of the game, but sloppy at both ends. Hertha, opened the festivities with a screamer from Zeefuik and had some very nice combinations in attack in general.
Hertha has been vastly underperforming according to the xG metric so it's nice to finally get a day where they basically score on every chance.
It kinda begs the question how much of this season has been caused by a mental block though. They've scored 4-1, 3-0, 3-0, 3-1 wins and now have a 3-0 half-time lead. Every time they get a commanding lead they play like a completely different team.
what Zeefuik?
It's just the way of Bundesliga. The typical German team loves nothing more than to play against a sloppy favourite. And when they taste blood in the water it gives them the confidence to do stuff in attack they don't usually do. Then you drop points a few times, the confidence of your players evaporates and you wake up between a rock and a hard place and it can take a while to get out. It's the same thing Gladbach are experiencing this season, Dortmund are way too familiar with it, too and even Bayern are not a complete stranger to it.
I don't think it's a huge tactical issue for Leverkusen, it's not that they concede their goals, because they are wide open at the back and it's not like they don't get into decent positions in attack. Maybe it's Bosz's man management, like he seems to be a nice guy and maybe it's the language barrier, but I couldn't for the life of me imagine how he motivates his teams or how he talks them through such a crisis.
We had 32 crosses today. 32. One per less than 3 minutes. He should be shouting at the players like I shout at my screen when they attempt the next cross or long shot again. The fact that he didn't do that at any point in time in the last 10 games or so and instead subs in Alario everytime to play even more long ball shows me that this is part of his system. And if that's his idea of attacking football, then I want him to be fired. He doesn't have Havertz and Brandt anymore but you can definitely play better football than this with the players we have.
Bayern had 28 crosses against Bremen. That's how it goes sometimes if your opponent defends well.
You said it, sometimes. We're doing it every game currently. We also had 29 crosses against Bielefeld. Leipzig had 17 against them a week later.
Today Leverkusen had an xG value of 2 and scored 0. Against Bielefeld they had 2.37 and scored 1. Looks to me like chance creation isn't the problem. At least not lately.
That's the thing with crosses, they're hard to convert. Especially if the target man is Schick who's best with the ball at his feet. We're currently attacking as if he is some sort of CR7 or Drogba. It makes no sense to play him over Alario when all our ideas consist of crossing and high balls.
What happened to him anyway? He just stopped posting?
That's nonsense anyway. A complete and utter myth.
xG accounts for shot type, so that's not really a valid argument imho. Also 4 out of 10 goals of Schick were headers last season, this season it's 4 out of 12. That's probably a pretty high rate for a striker.
https://bstat.de/doku.php/2021/gd_bl
You can also see it quite clearly here: Leverkusen's chance creation is as good as it's ever been this season. It's their conversion that fell down a cliff and then some, as well as their defensive performance.
Bosz must absolutely despair watching his team play:
This is about as good as it gets against a team that defends like Hertha. And you know what Schick did, right? He tried to square it
Though to be fair you can also wonder why all of his colleagues are completely indifferent to such a cross, if you look at their movement you might think that they thought the ref called it offside.The 0-2 is another prime example. Tapsoba actually plays a beautiful pass
between the lines, bypassing the entire Hertha midfield.
Only Aranguiz (?) handles the ball so badly Gouendouzi gets to catch up with him and then he turns into Tousart, because he has no awareness of his surroundings. Then Demirbay tries to press Tousart, only he's like 15 meters away, so he really just gives away space, while Tousart picks his pass, then Tapsoba and Wendell try to double up on Lukebakio, but still allow him to play a simple pass inside and the rest is Cunha.
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Might be... I believe you have better insights into the clubs from Berlin? I just wrote how I/people I know see it from the outside, we all don't care much about the city, so it might well be quite superficial how we see it.
Appparently Gladbach's new coach will be.. Xabi Alonso. They'll win best looking coaching zone, at least
The feck? How did that connection happen?Appparently Gladbach's new coach will be.. Xabi Alonso. They'll win best looking coaching zone, at least
Hailing from Berlin (born and bred) I'd like to think so. Well, maybe not so much about "clubs from Berlin" (I don't give a toss about Hertha) but certainly that lot from Koepenick as they're my club´s traditional rivals.
And no worries, most people seem to fall for the "working class club" myth re. Union. It's one of the main reasons (that and their ground) why they managed to increase their gates roughly tenfold in about 20 years.
Not the faintest idea. It's also far from official, so maybe it's just a silly rumour.
It's an image they like to cultivate about themselves.
In reality, the way they pursued promotion, and the economic/prices/sponsoring policy that came with it showed them to be rather gentrified.
It's an East Berlin club, the East Berlin club that wasn't favoured, and was bullied, by the state no less, which is why they have the image of being more in tune with the little man, yet honestly the fan base of Hertha sure seems much more Lumpenproletariat to me
But they also sing about the "hills and valleys" of their Berlin borough Köpenick in one of their favourite chants, when it's really just all flat, so maybe that tells something about their perception of self.
Good question. At least Alonso has a connection to the Bundesliga (played for Bayern), but how Eberl got to know him, or even got the idea is a bit of a mystery. But it could explain why Alonso is interested in coaching in the BL as he already knows the league and also a bit of the clubs in it - who knows, maybe already at the time they got to know each other due to some match day smalltalk or whatever.
If this is true it just shows that Eberl is a creative manager and open for looking for unusual solutions (he undoubtly is one of the best DoFs in German football so that is not a surprise).
Appparently Gladbach's new coach will be.. Xabi Alonso. They'll win best looking coaching zone, at least
Wow
That would be crazy. I'll wait for confirmation though.
xG accounts for shot type, so that's not really a valid argument imho. Also 4 out of 10 goals of Schick were headers last season, this season it's 4 out of 12. That's probably a pretty high rate for a striker.
https://bstat.de/doku.php/2021/gd_bl
You can also see it quite clearly here: Leverkusen's chance creation is as good as it's ever been this season. It's their conversion that fell down a cliff and then some, as well as their defensive performance.
Bosz must absolutely despair watching his team play:
This is about as good as it gets against a team that defends like Hertha. And you know what Schick did, right? He tried to square it
The 0-2 is another prime example. Tapsoba actually plays a beautiful pass
Only Aranguiz (?) handles the ball so badly Gouendouzi gets to catch up with him and then he turns into Tousart, because he has no awareness of his surroundings. Then Demirbay tries to press Tousart, only he's like 15 meters away, so he really just gives away space, while Tousart picks his pass, then Tapsoba and Wendell try to double up on Lukebakio, but still allow him to play a simple pass inside and the rest is Cunha.
I'm familiar with how xG works
And I also know that it has its limitations here and there. Favre teams for example beat their xG by playing for very clear cut chances and defending somewhat passively in the box, getting many players im there and trying to irritate the shot taker respectively block the lane. Liverpool did the same last season by focusing on. Crossing completely but they have multiple attackers excellent at converting crosses (Mane, Salah) and also two of the best crossers in the world.Thing is, Schick this game got at the end of at least five crosses. You posted the image of the biggest chance of those - the one he tried to square - but there were four more scenes like this one from the top of my head. Plus the rebound he failed to convert in the five yard box. And this is only Schick alone - six chances, one from less than three meters of distance on his strong foot, and still only an xG of 2.0. And this is the thing with crosses, even if one goes through they're very hard to convert if you don't have a specialist. Take the scene you posted the image from as an example. He got a header in the five yard box but even if he had gone for goal, many of those chances just hit the keeper since it's incredibly hard to place such finishes with precision. It's not a situation in which you control the ball. Compare that with Hertha's goals, they came from much bigger chances and are far easier to convert.
Schick's biggest asset is his ball control and technique. That's why we signed him. Now he's played over Alario and all we do is high ball and crossing. We're not utilizing his strengthes at all. Our attack is completely driven on quantity, not quality. And I'm sorry, but if that's the attacking pattern, I don't need a coach. What they're currently playing isn't anything special tactically. It's the most basic, straight forward and uninspired football you can play.
And the excuses are getting thinner and thinner. We're in our fifth week in which we're only playing one competition. Many players whose bad forms could be excused with just coming back from injuries or playing too often be in better shape right now. A few months ago we lauded both because he got players like Amiri, Bailey, Baumgartlinger etc. playing well again, it's only consequent to criticize him because most players are in terrible form now.
If he stays, something needs to happen. We can't go on playing like this. We're completely reliant on chance and coincidences in the attack. But the fact that Bosz believes we played a good match and got our chances has me thinking that there won't be any progress from here on. Crossing galore is his system, he's not questioning it and because of that I want him gone right now. If crossing was the way to go, we could've sticked with Herrlich.
Falk is definitely one of the most reliable sources out there. I am pretty sure it is a done deal.
Alonso has everything to become a top coach. Played in 3 top leagues for top clubs under different coaches and philosophyies. I think it is a surprising but very good decision by Gladbach since he speaks multiple languages, German included.
Loving it. Awesome addition to the Bundesliga coaching circuit. Quite a gamble of course, but no risk, no fun.
Just hope he has Eberl include a release clause for summer 2023 in his contract
Just hope he has Eberl include a release clause for summer 2023 in his contract
I'm familiar with how xG works
Thing is, Schick this game got at the end of at least five crosses. You posted the image of the biggest chance of those - the one he tried to square - but there were four more scenes like this one from the top of my head. Plus the rebound he failed to convert in the five yard box. And this is only Schick alone - six chances, one from less than three meters of distance on his strong foot, and still only an xG of 2.0. And this is the thing with crosses, even if one goes through they're very hard to convert if you don't have a specialist. Take the scene you posted the image from as an example. He got a header in the five yard box but even if he had gone for goal, many of those chances just hit the keeper since it's incredibly hard to place such finishes with precision. It's not a situation in which you control the ball. Compare that with Hertha's goals, they came from much bigger chances and are far easier to convert.
Schick's biggest asset is his ball control and technique. That's why we signed him. Now he's played over Alario and all we do is high ball and crossing. We're not utilizing his strengthes at all. Our attack is completely driven on quantity, not quality. And I'm sorry, but if that's the attacking pattern, I don't need a coach. What they're currently playing isn't anything special tactically. It's the most basic, straight forward and uninspired football you can play.
And the excuses are getting thinner and thinner. We're in our fifth week in which we're only playing one competition. Many players whose bad forms could be excused with just coming back from injuries or playing too often be in better shape right now. A few months ago we lauded both because he got players like Amiri, Bailey, Baumgartlinger etc. playing well again, it's only consequent to criticize him because most players are in terrible form now.
If he stays, something needs to happen. We can't go on playing like this. We're completely reliant on chance and coincidences in the attack. But the fact that Bosz believes we played a good match and got our chances has me thinking that there won't be any progress from here on. Crossing galore is his system, he's not questioning it and because of that I want him gone right now. If crossing was the way to go, we could've sticked with Herrlich.
But in the end xG, by definition and as you've pointed out yourself, already reflects the lower scoring probability of crosses. And when Schick gets on the end of 6 crosses and a tap in, 1.75 worth of xG for him alone. And his return is sweet nothing. Then it's not hard to understand what might be going wrong in attack. Like that first screenshot I posted shows absolutely atrocious awareness on Schick's part, but also his team mates, who, even when they see a cross making it to Schick, show absolutely no intention to move their ass in front of goal. Like Bailey even literally walks away from goal while the ball is in the air, Wirtz jogs into no man's land and only wakes up after Schick has already headed the ball. Either one of them might have gotten to Schick's ball if they had any awareness at all.
That second screenshot actually shows a very nice opportunity to score a "proper" goal, but Aranguiz handles the ball so very badly, his team actually ends up conceding because of it. Against Bielefeld as well, there was a text book cutback cross at the beginning of the game, only problem: Amiri can't even hit the goal from 11 meters out. At the end of that game Alario was presented with a clear shot at goal and managed to not only aim it centrally, right were the keeper was, but also over the goal.
Then on the other end of the pitch they just ship goals again and again. The first goal scored by Hertha was a nice collaboration of Grill and Gray, the second I've already described and the third wasn't any better either.
Bosz's attacking tactics are the least of their problems. That squad just isn't all there mentally at the moment, every game is a clown show, it's why they are so entertaining. If (and that's near impossible to answer from the outside) Bosz can't find the right words to address that then he will lose the dressing room and will have to be sacked regardless. But if beating Schalke next game doesn't do the trick, then it might be best to reinforce the defense with a Bender or two or Baumgartlinger, so it might actually deserve its name and the team doesn't have to take a mental hit 20 minutes into every game.
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I think you're oversimplifying things a bit. Yes, xG works with averages so on paper it should make no difference whether you have 10 low quality chances or 4 high quality ones as long as both are worth two goals on average. Anyway, xG is a great statistic with huge sample sizes, not small ones. Quite often you see the "goal probability" of a shot and wonder how this could've been so low/so high. XG for example doesn't consider the positions of other players surrounding you or where the keeper stands etc. Moreover, it doesn't consider the player who finished the chance and his respective strengthes. A player like Schick might outperform his xG in one on ones with the keeper but underperform it after crosses. Barca for instance has completely different opportunies since Messi is so great at scoring from around 20m and outperforms his xG in those situations, similarly to Liverpool after crosses. But as it seems to me, Schick is completely wasted in this role and Alario would be the better player for that.
And obviously players aren't that aware after a cross if you play 30 odd ones a game. Those crosses are just desperate attempts to force something. When they're played all the time, it's wearing off and players get more indifferent to it. It just proves that they aren't convinced by this approach either. And why would they? It's not like the opposition defense is caught on the wrong foot either - they know what's coming and how to defend it. I'd say the first cross in a game is likelier to lead to a goal than the 30th because when the latter is attempted the defenders will routinely defend it. The definition of insanity.
Also, if this is the be all end all attempt to attacking football, then why bother with coaching anyway? I mean, you're currently arguing that just spamming crosses for 90 minutes is the most efficient attacking pattern for us and I'm sorry but that's not ambitious enough for me. If that's the case we don't need technically gifted midfielders, pacey wingers and skillful strikers. We should just go with "you can't learn 1,90m" and sign somebody who's good at whipping it in the box then. We get highly gifted specialists, such as Diaby, Schick, Wirtz, etc. and have them do things a) at which they are average and b) are the tools worse players use because they lack the ablities to do something more demanding.
Finally, the permanent crossing also means permanent losses of possession and potential counter attacking threats all the time. 32 crosses means a likely possession loss every less than 3 minutes. I remember Bosz's beginning here when he emphasized control and retaining possession over anything. No more than 3 or 4 losses in dangerous areas at all. There's nothing left of that unfortunately. I'd be willing to stick with Bosz if he made it clear that he wants to play differently and only sets the team up that will out of necessity but it looks to me as if this is his approach. Control the game and whip it in as often as possible - thanks, but no.
This took me a while to figure out. It's pretty far-fetched if you're going by the actual pronunciation of the name in Dutch.
very good
(Zay-fike might come closest, but that 'ike' doesn't fully do justice to Dutch 'uik'. The stress on the first syllable further undermines the ressemblance.)
Measured by the shots that were actually taken it doesn't look like a scattergun approach at all. Quite the opposite actually: 3-5 decent quality chances. I understand most of your arguments, though I would counter that Schick is almost 1.90m tall and scores with headers regularly. So even though he might not be Host Hrubesch reborn it is far from unreasonable to target him with crosses.
Is this the way Leverkusen should always play until the end of time? No, for the reasons you have mentioned. But short term? When your confidence is that low it's reasonable to keep things simple. These players make the most basic of mistakes over and over again, even when they get a good attack going they just choke in front of goal. Asking them to play beautiful football now is bound to fail. Looking at the amount of chances they give away to their opposition it might even be time to go one step further and use more defensive lineups until they get a couple of results again.
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Measured by the shots that were actually taken it doesn't look like a scattergun approach at all. Quite the opposite actually: 5-6 decent quality chances. I understand most of your arguments, though I would counter that Schick is almost 1.90m tall and scores with headers regularly. So even though he might not be Host Hrubesch reborn it is far from unreasonable to target him with crosses.
Is this the way Leverkusen should always play until the end of time? No, for the reasons you have mentioned. But short term? When your confidence is that low it's reasonable to keep things simple. These players make the most basic of mistakes over and over again, even when they get a good attack going they just choke in front of goal. Asking them to play beautiful football now is bound to fail. Looking at the amount of chances they give away to their opposition it might even be time to go one step further and use more defensive lineups.
Bosz took over in a crisis from Herrlich. The team was atrocious back then and he implemented his playing philosophy right away, turning things around completely and playing the most beautiful football I've seen from us for half a season. His answer to a crisis has to be better than "just cross it, at some point we'll win by chance alone". Back then he was more idealistic and it worked.
Especially since we didn't play too beautiful football when we were successful this season either. Not even last one. Since Brandt has gone, our style has lost in attractiveness and subtlety. You can't replace his quality of course but over the course of 1.5 years it should've been possible to at least make due. It's also not like Bosz had no options. He hesitated last season to give Paulinho minutes when he was actually our best attacking player everytime he was subbed in. Palacios played brillantly before his injury this season, too, and rightfully displaced Stehmirbay in the starting line up. He's fit again but barely gets any minutes, despite our midfield looking really bad and Bosz complaining about the high intensity. That's two technically very gifted players who not only excel in tight spaces but probably are among the top 10 of our most expensive signings and he ignored them almost entirely. And they played well everytime they got the opportunity. The coach gets the benefit of the doubt with such things in times of success but if he refuses to bench Demirbay, Aranguiz and Amiri while we have a highly talented CM on hold is the sort of stuff that just grinds your gears.
You pointed it out when we lead the table yourself. We overperformed our xG and scored from set pieces a lot. I just wish we had a more sustainable and reproduceable approach to attacking play. Against Berlin we again ran much less than the opponent, only 112 km. If there's no movement in the final third, of course it'll be hard to score goals from combinations. We've got unbelievably quick attackers in Bailey, Diaby, Frimpong, Gray and Bellarabi. Get them into one on ones or let them make inverted runs behind the lines. Allow the midfielders to go into the box more often. Allow the full backs to participate or even better, switch to three at the back and play the formation that had us playing the best brand of football we've currently seen (3-6-1). But this.. it's just painful to watch. Bosz is currently destroying everything he build up over here.
It's an entirely different dynamic. Changing coaches can reset a team's momentum. What were new solutions back then would be more of the same now.
If you think Bosz's football has not been satisfactory for the last 18 months, so unrelated to the current crisis and changes it has brought on, then that's a different topic entirely. Though my impression wasn't that bad, given the squad he had to work with.
And in general it's always hard to assess players who aren't playing a lot. As an attacking player it's always easier if you come on after an hour, the opposition begins to tire and your own team has to take a lot more risks in attack if they need a goal. And when things aren't going well the less you play the higher your stock is with the fans.
According to Patrick Berger of Sport1 (not related to the player in any way), Eberl and Xabi Alonso are just in talks, and there's nothing more than that.
EDIT: Reaffirmed by Falk
EDIT: Reaffirmed by Falk