German elections on Sunday 23rd February 2025

BSW is failing to make the hurdle by the slimmest of margins. They're at 4.972% according to the latest numbers, about 13000 votes short.
Both them and FDP not making the cut is excellent.
 
Wow.

With the exception of Berlin, Potsdam and Leipzig, the AfD won every "Wahlkreis" in the former East Germany.
 
Dans said:
Wow.

With the exception of Berlin, Potsdam and Leipzig, the AfD won every "Wahlkreis" in the former East Germany.
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I saw a map of the exit polls on Reddit with the title “draw the Berlin Wall without drawing the Berlin Wall”.
 
Dans said:
Wow.

With the exception of Berlin, Potsdam and Leipzig, the AfD won every "Wahlkreis" in the former East Germany.
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The map I saw might be wrong - only half of Leipzig was not AfD, and Erfurt voted Die Linke, and 1 district in Berlin did vote AfD.
 
Perhaps the east could be given back to Russia? Will a new AfD, the AfWD, spring up in time for the next election?
 
Dans said:
The map I saw might be wrong - only half of Leipzig was not AfD, and Erfurt voted Die Linke, and 1 district in Berlin did vote AfD.
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It all depends what you look at. For Erfurt-Weimar for example, the AfD had the most second votes (Zweitstimme), but the direct mandate went to Bodo Ramelow of Die Linke by some margin. There's a fair few electoral districts where that is the case, people voting for a direct candidate from a different party than the party they vote for.

Map for Erststimmen (left) and Zweitstimmen:
2xHJWmz.jpeg
tFxzk7D.jpeg
 
Doesn't the result of this election mean that AFD will be the leading voice in the opposition? With Musk and his algorithms amplifying their every policy announcement that's going to make for some uncomfortable policy making.
 
RoyH1 said:
Doesn't the result of this election mean that AFD will be the leading voice in the opposition? With Musk and his algorithms amplifying their every policy announcement that's going to make for some uncomfortable policy making.
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Yes, but they've been the loudest voice already and everybody else agrees to ignore them. And everybody knew this would be happening. So I don't think it matters much.

After all it looks like about 45% voted for the likely centrist coalition Union/SPD, about 20% for the right opposition (AfD), but another 20% for the left opposition (The Left, Greens). That is actually decently balanced.

The outstanding part of this result is that about 15% of voters are not represented in the parliament, I don't think that has happened before (maybe right after the founding of the federal republic when everything was fresh and there were no big established parties yet).
 
stefan92 said:
The outstanding part of this result is that about 15% of voters are not represented in the parliament, I don't think that has happened before (maybe right after the founding of the federal republic when everything was fresh and there were no big established parties yet).
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Actually it has, just 12 years ago in 2013. Very similar results back then with 2 parties just missing out oin the 5% barrier.
I think from a democratic theoretical level it's a problematic situation although in this case I'm actually happy because two scummy parties missed out (same in 2013 lol).
Overall it is a problematic development, I used to be a big fan of a multi-party system, especially compared to UK or US. But the defragmentation of the political party landscape in a very decentralised federal state like Germany is becoming a huge issue in terms of governance because it is becoming very hard to implement any sort of progress due to so many checks and balances and blockades.
 
Kasper said:
Actually it has, just 12 years ago in 2013. Very similar results back then with 2 parties just missing out oin the 5% barrier.
I think from a democratic theoretical level it's a problematic situation although in this case I'm actually happy because two scummy parties missed out (same in 2013 lol).
Overall it is a problematic development, I used to be a big fan of a multi-party system, especially compared to UK or US. But the defragmentation of the political party landscape in a very decentralised federal state like Germany is becoming a huge issue in terms of governance because it is becoming very hard to implement any sort of progress due to so many checks and balances and blockades.
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Oh right... somehow forgot about that, for some reason I thought the Left made it then :lol:
 
G3079 said:
It all depends what you look at. For Erfurt-Weimar for example, the AfD had the most second votes (Zweitstimme), but the direct mandate went to Bodo Ramelow of Die Linke by some margin. There's a fair few electoral districts where that is the case, people voting for a direct candidate from a different party than the party they vote for.

Map for Erststimmen (left) and Zweitstimmen:
2xHJWmz.jpeg
tFxzk7D.jpeg
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CSU won every single constituency in Bavaria? Wow. I think in the previous elections there were quite a few green spots there.
 
Red Star One said:
CSU won every single constituency in Bavaria? Wow. I think in the previous elections there were quite a few green spots there.
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Lower Saxony is even more interesting I think. Most differences between first and second vote winners. Looks like people like their local SPD candidates, but didn't vote for the party, so essentially prefer Merz over Scholz.
 
Sweet Square said:
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That's only 18-24 year olds, so a very specific group. Spread over all age groups the gender differences are actually surprisingly small compared to the US or other countries.
Red Star One said:
CSU won every single constituency in Bavaria? Wow. I think in the previous elections there were quite a few green spots there.
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Nah the Greens won a single one last time in Munich South which was already a huge upset and the first time in decades that the CSU hadn't won every Bavarian constituency. They missed out this time by 0.6% so not a massive swing.
Bavaria is a joke of a state from a democratic perspective so no bigger surprises there.
 
Kasper said:
That's only 18-24 year olds, so a very specific group. Spread over all age groups the gender differences are actually surprisingly small compared to the US or other countries.

Nah the Greens won a single one last time in Munich South which was already a huge upset and the first time in decades that the CSU hadn't won every Bavarian constituency. They missed out this time by 0.6% so not a massive swing.
Bavaria is a joke of a state from a democratic perspective so no bigger surprises there.
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Why is Bavaria a joke of a state from a democratic perspective?
 
I think it hasn't been covered here but with the current results, very small changes could huge potentially huge implications on Germany's military support of Ukraine and its general ability to invest money. Since 2009, there is a mechanism in the constitutional law called Schuldenbremse ("debt brake") that limits the amount of debt the state can accumulate to a percentage of the GDP. In order to change this mechanism, you need a two thirds majority in the Bundestag. Right now, CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens fall short of less than 1% of this majority. SPD and Greens see a change of this mechanism as mandatory for future spendings. Habeck was nothing short of devastated about that in an interview yesterday night, claiming that people haven't realized how complicated this will make, for instance, the support of Ukraine, especially since the opposition will likely not support them. AfD is basically a Russian agent and the Lefts have historical ties to Russia as well. Merz was opposed to changing the Schuldenbremse up until a year ago, in recent times he's changed his stance on that. Thing is, he has pretty ambitious plans and he needs money for that. So even if they get through the very difficult coalition negotiations, this could make things even more complicated.
 
VorZakone said:
Why is Bavaria a joke of a state from a democratic perspective?
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They are the most selfish state and the biggest hypocrits by a huge margin. Demand special rules for their state, grab money wherever they can and then present themselves as the role model all other states should follow. I'll never forget how party leader Markus Söder praised federal traffic minister Andreas Scheuer publicly for directing so much money to Bavaria as no other government official before him. On a fecking press conference. The very Andreas Scheuer that burned billions of tax money with a politicial prestige project that was always going to get overruled by EU law and then let documents vanish that most likely would have put him under scrutiny. And that's only the tip of the iceberg.

God, I can't believe we really voted those corrupt cnuts back into office.
 
Zehner said:
I think it hasn't been covered here but with the current results, very small changes could huge potentially huge implications on Germany's military support of Ukraine and its general ability to invest money. Since 2009, there is a mechanism in the constitutional law called Schuldenbremse ("debt brake") that limits the amount of debt the state can accumulate to a percentage of the GDP. In order to change this mechanism, you need a two thirds majority in the Bundestag. Right now, CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens fall short of less than 1% of this majority. SPD and Greens see a change of this mechanism as mandatory for future spendings. Habeck was nothing short of devastated about that in an interview yesterday night, claiming that people haven't realized how complicated this will make, for instance, the support of Ukraine, especially since the opposition will likely not support them. AfD is basically a Russian agent and the Lefts have historical ties to Russia as well. Merz was opposed to changing the Schuldenbremse up until a year ago, in recent times he's changed his stance on that. Thing is, he has pretty ambitious plans and he needs money for that. So even if they get through the very difficult coalition negotiations, this could make things even more complicated.
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But if Union+SPD+Greens are just 1% short of this majority, maybe one or two MPs from the Left/AfD can be convinced to rebel against their party? Also no FDP I guess is good in this case, as they we're against removing the debt brake, right?
 
Red Star One said:
But if Union+SPD+Greens are just 1% short of this majority, maybe one or two MPs from the Left/AfD can be convinced to rebel against their party? Also no FDP I guess is good in this case, as they we're against removing the debt brake, right?
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Very very unlikely for that to happen. I think they can convince the Left however.
 
Red Star One said:
But if Union+SPD+Greens are just 1% short of this majority, maybe one or two MPs from the Left/AfD can be convinced to rebel against their party? Also no FDP I guess is good in this case, as they we're against removing the debt brake, right?
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As always with regards to the FDP, it would have been a question of what you pay. I'd say their insistence on the Schuldenbremse had much to do with not being in sync with the policies SPD and Greens wanted to see through. They were a double agent all along, unfortunately. And stupid me gave them my second vote last year.

Anyway, I can't imagine they convince somebody of the AfD because a) that representative would be fecked and b) Merz already burned his fingers in late January by working together with the AfD and it probably cost him up to 5% in the election. The Left will be interesting. They have a huge high right now and with Wagenknecht and Lafontaine, the two politicians that were associated with Russia the most have left the party. They were always against the Schuldenbremse because it limited the investments for social projects. For them, this could be a turning point in there history: Cut the ties with Russia and use their leverage to achieve a social reform of the Schuldenbremse. It could have huge implications since young voters can abandon you pretty quickly as well if you disappoint them. They could become a real factor if they loosen their ties with Russia and become the worker party the SPD is supposed to be.
 
Kasper said:
Very very unlikely for that to happen. I think they can convince the Left however.
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Zehner said:
As always with regards to the FDP, it would have been a question of what you pay. I'd say their insistence on the Schuldenbremse had much to do with not being in sync with the policies SPD and Greens wanted to see through. They were a double agent all along, unfortunately. And stupid me gave them my second vote last year.

Anyway, I can't imagine they convince somebody of the AfD because a) that representative would be fecked and b) Merz already burned his fingers in late January by working together with the AfD and it probably cost him up to 5% in the election. The Left will be interesting. They have a huge high right now and with Wagenknecht and Lafontaine, the two politicians that were associated with Russia the most have left the party. They were always against the Schuldenbremse because it limited the investments for social projects. For them, this could be a turning point in there history: Cut the ties with Russia and use their leverage to achieve a social reform of the Schuldenbremse. It could have huge implications since young voters can abandon you pretty quickly as well if you disappoint them. They could become a real factor if they loosen their ties with Russia and become the worker party the SPD is supposed to be.
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Cheers. That's relatively optimistic I guess and it seems like Die Linke in fact can have some reasons to support removing the brake. Let's hope for this
 
Zehner said:
They are the most selfish state and the biggest hypocrits by a huge margin. Demand special rules for their state, grab money wherever they can and then present themselves as the role model all other states should follow. I'll never forget how party leader Markus Söder praised federal traffic minister Andreas Scheuer publicly for directing so much money to Bavaria as no other government official before him. On a fecking press conference. The very Andreas Scheuer that burned billions of tax money with a politicial prestige project that was always going to get overruled by EU law and then let documents vanish that most likely would have put him under scrutiny. And that's only the tip of the iceberg.

God, I can't believe we really voted those corrupt cnuts back into office.
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Heh, some time ago I was surprised to read about "Bavarian separatism" after WW1.
 
Anyone mind doing an ELI5 for me and sum up the general mood from both antifascist and fascist sides this morning?
 
stefan92 said:
Because it was always ruled by the CSU. They never had another party winning any election there.
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That doesn't make it a joke of a state. Singapore for example, has always run by a single party, and is probably the best ruled country in the world. Japan has also been ruled almost exclusively from a single party.
 
Revan said:
That doesn't make it a joke of a state. Singapore for example, has always run by a single party, and is probably the best ruled country in the world. Japan has also been ruled almost exclusively from a single party.
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"joke of a state from a democratic perspective", with the democratic perspective being the key part here. One can think Singapore is the best ruled country in the world but it doesn't change the fact that one-party democratic republic is a bit of a joke from a democratic perspective.
 
Red Star One said:
"joke of a state from a democratic perspective", with the democratic perspective being the key part here. One can think Singapore is the best ruled country in the world but it doesn't change the fact that one-party democratic republic is a bit of a joke from a democratic perspective.
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What if people are genuinely happy on how the things are going? Why should they change the ruling party? It is not undemocratic if people vote in free elections (which is definitely the case for Japan and Bavaria for example).
 
Revan said:
What if people are genuinely happy on how the things are going? Why should they change the ruling party? It is not undemocratic if people vote in free elections (which is definitely the case for Japan and Bavaria for example).
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I don't think nepotism and exploiting your political responsibility for personal gain is democratic. And the CSU has a longer list of such scandals in recent years than any other big party in Germany.
 
Red Star One said:
"joke of a state from a democratic perspective", with the democratic perspective being the key part here. One can think Singapore is the best ruled country in the world but it doesn't change the fact that one-party democratic republic is a bit of a joke from a democratic perspective.
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People are free to vote for any other party in Bavaria though aren't they? The fact that one particular party always wins there doesn't imply that it's not democratic, unless I'm missing something obvious here?
 
Revan said:
What if people are genuinely happy on how the things are going? Why should they change the ruling party? It is not undemocratic if people vote in free elections (which is definitely the case for Japan and Bavaria for example).
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My original comment was mainly in jest and response to someone asking if CSU winning all Bavarian constituencies was something special.
There are political theorists that only define states as democracies if there has been a democratic transition of power which hasn't happened yet in Bavaria in their whole period of 70+ years. I'm not a supporter of said theories and prefer other categories and I agree that Bavarian elections are free.
Having said that there are definitely multiple (historical) instances of undemocratic mechanisms (mixture of state representation vs party representation, corruption, interference in press) in Bavaria under CSU governance so yeah, they're a bit of a joke.
 
Sweet Square said:
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The huge pivot to the right of young men is not exclusive to Germany. Pretty much the same as most Western countries I'd say. Centrist and left wing parties really need to create space in their party programmes to address this and make themselves attractive to young men again.
 
RobinLFC said:
People are free to vote for any other party in Bavaria though aren't they? The fact that one particular party always wins there doesn't imply that it's not democratic, unless I'm missing something obvious here?
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I don't think anyone argues that the elections aren't free or democratic. The CSU simply has it incredibly easy in Bavaria since the voters are so stubborn that it would take a miracle for them not be elected. Their two most recent results (~37%) were the two worst in history, they hadn't been below 40% before. And that has reasons. Nepotism and exploitation of political power has been a major characteristic of the CSU in recent years, alongside right-wing populism that would have been unimaginable 10 years ago. So I think they are democratic but have had their fair share of very undemocratic scandals, probably more so than any other big party in Germany outside of the AfD.
 
Zehner said:
I think it hasn't been covered here but with the current results, very small changes could huge potentially huge implications on Germany's military support of Ukraine and its general ability to invest money. Since 2009, there is a mechanism in the constitutional law called Schuldenbremse ("debt brake") that limits the amount of debt the state can accumulate to a percentage of the GDP. In order to change this mechanism, you need a two thirds majority in the Bundestag. Right now, CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens fall short of less than 1% of this majority.
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This would have been the only advantage had the FDP gotten 5%. It would have made forming a government extremely complicated, but fundamental changes like this urgently needed one would have been easier. All in all, far from ideal but not the worst case.
 
Sweet Square said:
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I said this in one of the US politics threads, but as an early 30s man it saddens me that we have lost the next generation of men to the likes of Musk, Tate and the far right.

I have no idea how to we are supposed to go about addressing this, if there even is a way for it to be addressed.
 
Zehner said:
I don't think anyone argues that the elections aren't free or democratic. The CSU simply has it incredibly easy in Bavaria since the voters are so stubborn that it would take a miracle for them not be elected. Their two most recent results (~37%) were the two worst in history, they hadn't been below 40% before. And that has reasons. Nepotism and exploitation of political power has been a major characteristic of the CSU in recent years, alongside right-wing populism that would have been unimaginable 10 years ago. So I think they are democratic but have had their fair share of very undemocratic scandals, probably more so than any other big party in Germany outside of the AfD.
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Fair enough, thanks for sharing. The bolded part is probably true for every political party in Belgium and they still get their usual votes in the regions they historically dominate, so perhaps that's why I don't really find it "undemocratic" per se :lol:
 
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