(Sorry that I'm over three days behind the thread, I like to read it all!)
General Election 2017 | Cabinet reshuffle: Hunt re-appointed Health Secretary for record third time
- Thread starter altodevil
- Start date
Masochist.
Surely that's the best case scenario?
Limited losses showing that May's arguments haven't penetrated as much as assumed, but enough of a loss that a change of leadership would be inevitable.
Well this would at least cheer up some of you on election night
Normally, I would laugh. But I really do feel like crying.
Let me just get this off my chest. Don't give a shite what others think anymore.
I hope brexit is a disaster.
otherwise, that's the end of the left/centr-left/progressives in this country for the foreseeable future.
I hope brexit is a disaster.
otherwise, that's the end of the left/centr-left/progressives in this country for the foreseeable future.
Honestly it's probably the best case scenario for Labour if they can't win this election (and if you're convinced Brexit will be a disaster then maybe its a bit of a silver lining). If Brexit is an utter mess then it can't hurt to be as far away from the fallout as possible, eventually people will realise they've been lied to. Labour's job will be to convince them that its the Tories that are to blame.
That's what I'm thinking. The electorate/leave voters at the moment aren't willing to listen to anything apart for "give us our brexit". So until brexit is done and dusted with it turning into a disaster, nothing else is going to work.
Leave voters at the moment, care more about brexit than they care about cuts to services and the NHS. That's how desperate the situation is.
Well this would at least cheer up some of you on election night
Before people despair too much
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_19971997 General Election said:
Swings and roundabouts
Just the Labour equivalents of Hague, IDS and Howard to get through, then...Before people despair too much
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1997
Swings and roundabouts
What an utterly selfish post. And says more about the left then anything else I've read on this thread.
You should be ashamed to wish harm on others just to get your own way.
Wish harm on others? People are voting for a party that's about to inflict more cuts on them by an even bigger majority.
To be frank i don't give a shite whether you think I'm selfish or not.
I'm not a Corbyn fan but i rather see him as PM than that toad. And I'm one of the people he wants to tax into oblivion.
So I don't understand how that makes me selfish.
After the Lib Dems sacked David Ward for antisemetic comments, I see it's fair enough for the Tories to nominate Zac Goldsmith even though he's obviously shown to be unprincipled and ran an racist, divisive campaign.
That's exactly what people said about 2010. 7 years on the Tories are heading for a landslide.
She couldn't unite the party, so not my choice for leader. She knows her stuff though, you want her in the shadow cabinet.
I don't know, if Brexit is a complete disaster than who are these people(Leave voters) going to blame ? I'm guessing the same people they've been blaming for the past 20 odd years - the poor and immigrates. Also as we've already seen with some in the Labour Party, the centre-left is more than willing to give in to right wing xenophobic rhetoric in the name of winning votes.
Labour really only have themselves to blame.
Why are the Trade Unions to blame (2010)?
In 2010, Labour held a leadership election. David Miliband beat his brother Ed Miliband in every round for the MPs/MEPs votes and the Labour Party members votes. However, the Trade Unions had preferred Ed Miliband to David, and by gaming the system, got their man in.
David, a more centralist Blairite would likely have been much more popular with the general public than his brother https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)_leadership_election,_2010
Why are the Trade Unions to blame again (2013)?
In 2013, Eric Joyce, Member of the House of Commons of the United Kingdom for Falkirk, resigned from the Labour Party and announced he would not seek re-election. Unite again started to game the system to "their man" (or in this case, their woman) in as Labour candidate. Read about it more detail here
As a result of this 'scandal' the Labour Party comissioned a report into changing their election systems.
Why is the Collins Review to blame?
This changed the system, giving each party member and affiliate member one vote each. Whilst seemingly being a good idea (much more pure democracy) this system retained flaws that allowed the much more vocal (within the party) left to seize control.
Why are the Labour MPs to blame?
Flash forward a few years, and Ed Miliband has lost the General Election and resigned. Labour are seeking a new leader. Under the new system, a candidate requires 35 Labour MPs to be nominated. 36 Labour MPs nominate Jeremy Corbyn. I also want to say that the other candidates, were at least a bit uninspired. Andy Burnham, Yvette Cooper and Liz Kendall. Mary Creagh supported by Jo Cox, only had 10 nominations, before withdrawing.
Why are the Party Members, Registered Supporters and Affiliated supporters to blame?
They elected Jeremy Corbyn with a clear majority.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)_leadership_election,_2015
Why is the whole of Labour to blame?
The party completely failed to make the case for staying in the EU. On 23rd June 2016, the UK narrowly voted to leave the European Union.
Why are the Labour MPs to blame (again)?
Following the vote to leave the European Union, and after months of in-fighting in Labour, 172 MPs backed a no-confidence motion against Jeremy Corbyn, triggering another Labour Leadership election.
Why is Jeremy Corbyn to blame?
In a unprecedented move (from what I remember), Corbyn said he would not step down, and again run for Labour Leadership.
Why is the National Executive Committee to blame?
They allowed Corbyn to be automatically nominated for Leadership.
Why are the Labour Party Members and Affiliate Members again to blame?
Just like last time, they elected Jeremy Corbyn.
So we've got a Labour Party in complete disarray, confused on Europe, and expected to mount a tangible challenge against the conservatives.
Yeah good luck. So you in 2028.
Why are the Trade Unions to blame (2010)?
In 2010, Labour held a leadership election. David Miliband beat his brother Ed Miliband in every round for the MPs/MEPs votes and the Labour Party members votes. However, the Trade Unions had preferred Ed Miliband to David, and by gaming the system, got their man in.
David, a more centralist Blairite would likely have been much more popular with the general public than his brother https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)_leadership_election,_2010
Why are the Trade Unions to blame again (2013)?
In 2013, Eric Joyce, Member of the House of Commons of the United Kingdom for Falkirk, resigned from the Labour Party and announced he would not seek re-election. Unite again started to game the system to "their man" (or in this case, their woman) in as Labour candidate. Read about it more detail here
As a result of this 'scandal' the Labour Party comissioned a report into changing their election systems.
Why is the Collins Review to blame?
This changed the system, giving each party member and affiliate member one vote each. Whilst seemingly being a good idea (much more pure democracy) this system retained flaws that allowed the much more vocal (within the party) left to seize control.
Why are the Labour MPs to blame?
Flash forward a few years, and Ed Miliband has lost the General Election and resigned. Labour are seeking a new leader. Under the new system, a candidate requires 35 Labour MPs to be nominated. 36 Labour MPs nominate Jeremy Corbyn. I also want to say that the other candidates, were at least a bit uninspired. Andy Burnham, Yvette Cooper and Liz Kendall. Mary Creagh supported by Jo Cox, only had 10 nominations, before withdrawing.
Why are the Party Members, Registered Supporters and Affiliated supporters to blame?
They elected Jeremy Corbyn with a clear majority.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)_leadership_election,_2015
Why is the whole of Labour to blame?
The party completely failed to make the case for staying in the EU. On 23rd June 2016, the UK narrowly voted to leave the European Union.
Why are the Labour MPs to blame (again)?
Following the vote to leave the European Union, and after months of in-fighting in Labour, 172 MPs backed a no-confidence motion against Jeremy Corbyn, triggering another Labour Leadership election.
Why is Jeremy Corbyn to blame?
In a unprecedented move (from what I remember), Corbyn said he would not step down, and again run for Labour Leadership.
Why is the National Executive Committee to blame?
They allowed Corbyn to be automatically nominated for Leadership.
Why are the Labour Party Members and Affiliate Members again to blame?
Just like last time, they elected Jeremy Corbyn.
So we've got a Labour Party in complete disarray, confused on Europe, and expected to mount a tangible challenge against the conservatives.
Yeah good luck. So you in 2028.
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They'll blame who the newspapers tell them to blame.
In others news: I see they've sent classless Johnson to do the tabloid equivalent of an Eton bully burning a £50 note in front of Corbyn. This country is held hostage by the rich and their lackeys, and has been for centuries.
Here you go @rcoobc nail on the head.
I already knew about the shy tory factor (I'm certain you could find me talking about it somewhere. Edit - here)... but what I'm saying (actually mostly hoping at this point) is that...
1) The shy Tory factor is gone. Every poll has them with a huge majority. Why would anyone be timid about supporting them?
2) There is a shy Labour factor. Labour are deeply unpopular at the moment. But maybe, just maybe, when people get to the polls, they will get a small boost as people vote with their hearts?...
Probably not.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-u-k-snap-election-is-riskier-than-it-seems/
Looking at the table in this article it seems polls always underestimate the Tories, even when they are winning in them. Only once has the real result been lower than the predicted margin for a Tory win. Don't know why Nate doesn't hit on this in his spiel.
I am not optimistic, if Corbyn is to make a dent we will know beforehand, not in the exit poll.
The shy tory effect isn't really a thing in polling. After the 92 polling failure it was found to be a minor factor in the polling error, and in 2015 it was dismissed by the British Polling Council as a factor at all. While its certainly true that people in day to day life may be a bit more shy about saying they're Tories, it doesn't (or at least hasn't) impacted on the polls.
Indeed, if anything its what you might call the Eager Labour effect. In 2015 the main part of the failure came because of unrepresentative samples. Basically, when the phone rings and you're asked whether you want to do a poll about your voting habits, people who were really into politics said yes, people who weren't that bothered said no. The people who are really into politics are disproportionately young and left wing, so they were over represented in the polls. Its possible that the polling companies have over-corrected, but there's no evidence to support that.
However I do think people will change their mind (a little) when it comes to polling day. Labour's core vote is usually thought of to be somewhere between 25 and 30%. I honestly think that most of that core vote will, perhaps begrudgingly, still vote Labour, simply because they like their local MP or from habit. I don't see Labour getting almost any swing voters this time, which will probably keep their vote at 30% or below, but I dont think even two years of Corbyn will get them down to 25% or below.
Are you sure? The table in the article I posted above suggests the opposite?
All this is telling us is that your average, working class, 'socialist' is just as racist as the next man.
What is?
Thanks both of you. And indeed to the bolded bit. There is quite a difference between a telephone poll and a being in the booth with a pen in your hand. What's interesting about that though, is that young people are obviously far less likely to talk on the phone. i.e. the sample for young people will be far lower. Now they 'correct' this by taking into account peoples ages on the phone vs what it will be like in real life, but obviously this is a flawed concept.
God I hope the Tories don't take another landslide
The average working class voter is much more racist than the next man (in my 29 years of experience).
I wouldn't say the average working class voter is socialist either. They only support socialist ideas when it benefits them (NHS, welfare).
This has always been the major flaw with Labour's EU position, and why sadly UKIP hurt Labour as much as they hurt the Tories... and the Brexit hurts Labour more now.
That's not because of a shy Tory effect though.
She's not even Red Tory, she's Red UKIP.
It's quite common for the far left to vote for the far right.
To me its quite clear who to vote for. I want the NHS to be here for my children and my grandchildren and under the tories it won't be.Whether you like Corbyn or not, the Labour party are the party I trust with our health service.
As an anti eu person myself, you could not be further from the truth
London voted to stay in, can I assume that London wont be voting tory en mass? No course not
If corbyn talks about skools, services and nhs cuts during the campaign he could do well. Let the tories talk about brexit for the next few weeks until everybody is sick of them.
This is where I'm less sure. They'd try and keep him on until they could attempt to change the nomination rules I think.Surely that's the best case scenario?
Limited losses showing that May's arguments haven't penetrated as much as assumed, but enough of a loss that a change of leadership would be inevitable.
So much blame.
Just a reminder about Goldsmith, his putridness goes far deeper than the racist campaign for mayor.
Goldmsith is worth about £350 million, all inheritance. He keeps it in a swiss bank account, to avoid tax. For his entire adult life, up to 8 months before he ran as an MP he was, by choice, a non-dom, to avoid paying tax in this country. He only gave it up because someone pointed out that if he were still a non dom, he couldn't stand for parliament.
A man who spent his entire life figuring out how not to contribute to society wants to make the laws of that society. It was a disgrace he was ever elected in the first place, let alone a second time.
Goldmsith is worth about £350 million, all inheritance. He keeps it in a swiss bank account, to avoid tax. For his entire adult life, up to 8 months before he ran as an MP he was, by choice, a non-dom, to avoid paying tax in this country. He only gave it up because someone pointed out that if he were still a non dom, he couldn't stand for parliament.
A man who spent his entire life figuring out how not to contribute to society wants to make the laws of that society. It was a disgrace he was ever elected in the first place, let alone a second time.
I also see that Esther McVey is going to get Osborne's seat in Tatton.
That IS depressing.
London won't be voting Tory en mass at all It is pretty much split between Labour and Tory at the moment. It will be one of Labour's best performing areas again I would imagine.
Why?
I'll start with hardcore nasty party & stupid with it.